Short-Term Load Forecasting Exponential Smoothoing in Consideration of T

온도를 고려한 지수평활에 의한 단기부하 예측

  • 고희석 (경남대 공대 전기) ;
  • 이태기 (경남대 대학원 전기공학과) ;
  • 김현덕 (경남대 대학원 전기공학과) ;
  • 이충식 (경남대 대학원 전기공학과)
  • Published : 1994.05.01

Abstract

The major advantage of the short-term load forecasting technique using general exponential smoothing is high accuracy and operational simplicity, but it makes large forecasting error when the load changes repidly. The paper has presented new technique to improve those shortcomings, and according to forecasted the technique proved to be valid for two years. The structure of load model is time function which consists of daily-and temperature-deviation component. The average of standard percentage erro in daily forecasting for two years was 2.02%, and this forecasting technique has improved standard erro by 0.46%. As relative coefficient for daily and seasonal forecasting is 0.95 or more, this technique proved to be valid.

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