Mission Reliability Prediction Using Bayesian Approach

베이지안기법에 의한 임무 신뢰도 예측

A Baysian approach is proposed is estimating the mission failure rates by criticalities. A mission failure which occurs according to a Poisson process with unknown rate is assumed to be classified as one of the criticality levels with an unknown probability. We employ the Gamma prior for the mission failure rate and the Dirichlet prior for the criticality probabilities. Posterior distributions of the mission rates by criticalities and predictive distributions of the time to failure are derived.