추계학적(推計學的) 저수용량(貯水容量) 결정(決定)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)

A study on the determination for stochastic reservoir capacity

For the determination of a reservoir capacity Rippl's mass-curve method has long been used with the past river flow data assuming the same flow records will be repeated in the future. This study aims to find out a better method for determining the reservoir capacity by employing the analytical theory based on the stochastic process. For the present study the synthetic generation methods of Thomas-Fiering type was used to synthetically generate 50 years of monthly river inflows to three single-purpose reservoirs and three multi-purpose reservoirs. The generated sequences of monthly flows were analyzed based on the range concept. With the optimum operation rule of the reservoirs as the one which maximizes the water-use downstream the waterrelease from the reservoir was determined and with due consideration to the mean inflows and the range of monthly flows the required reservoirs capacity was stochastically determined. It was possible to repersent the so-determined reservoir capacity in terms of the mean monthly inflows and the number of subseries in the determination of ranges. It is suggested that the result obtained in this study would be applied to approximately estimate, in the stage of preliminary design, the required capacity of a reservoir in question with the limited information such as the mean monthly inflow and the period of reservoir operation.