식량수급(食糧需給)에 따른 비료수요(肥料需要) 전망(展望)

Long-run Estimation of Fertilizer Demand in Korea to Meet the National Food Supply

1. The purpose of this study is to provide a series of statistical "bench marks" from which one can begin to think systematically about the required development of the Korean food and fertilizer needs over the next quarter-century. 2. The Korean population has been estimated by the characteristics of the population and its social and political situations today. Because fertility and mortality rates are relatively stable and are under control of politics concerned, the estimation rates were established with 1.6% over 1975-1980, 1.3% over 1981-1990, and 1.0% over 1991-2000. 3. Annual per capita absorption of milled rice has fluctuated rather closely around 140kg, since 1968, with no evidence of declining trend. Per capita absorption of barley and wheat around 120 kg, and legumes around 10.6kg, However because the case of wheat and corn productions are rather difficult the self-sufficiency in the future, the rice is considered to be accelerate its yield growth surplus the level of self-sufficiency to export. 4. The fertilizer demand in each element has been calculated by mechanical multiplication of "the recommend index of fetilizer application" to yield a unit production over the need of national food supply by crop year. 5. As a results refer to Table (8), the estimated quantities of total fertilizer demand to meet the national food supply of the years of 1974, 1980, 1985, 1.990, 1995, and 2000 are reached around 871500, 1138150, 1375480, 1515030, 1652090 and 1799850 metric tons in each year.