Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference (대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집)
- 2011.04a
- /
- Pages.177-183
- /
- 2011
The Study on Strategy for Industrial Accident Prevention by the Industrial Accident Rate Forecasting in Korea
한국에서 산업재해율 예측에 의한 산업재해방지 전략에 관한 연구
- Kang, Young-Sig ;
- Kim, Tae-Gu ;
- Ahn, Kwang-Hyuk ;
- Choi, Do-Lim ;
- Jung, U-Na ;
- Lee, Seong-Ho ;
- Park, Min-Ah ;
- Lee, Seol ;
- Kim, Seong-Hyun
- 강영식 (세명대학교 보건안전공학과) ;
- 김태구 (인제대학교 보건안전공학과) ;
- 안광혁 (세명대학교 보건안전공학과) ;
- 최도림 (세명대학교 보건안전공학과) ;
- 정유나 (세명대학교 보건안전공학과) ;
- 이승호 (세명대학교 보건안전공학과) ;
- 박민아 (세명대학교 보건안전공학과) ;
- 이슬 (세명대학교 보건안전공학과) ;
- 김성현 (세명대학교 보건안전공학과)
- Published : 2011.04.23
Abstract
Korea has performed strategies for the third industrial accident prevention in order to minimize industrial accident. However, the occupational fatality rate and industrial accident rate appears to be stagnated for 11 years. Therefore, this paper forecasts the occupational fatality rate and industrial accident rate for 10 years. Also, this paper applies regression method (RA), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and proposed analytical function method (PAFM) for trend of industrial accident. Finally, this paper suggests fundamental strategies for industrial accident prevention by forecasting of industrial accident rate in the long term.
Keywords