A Study on Developing Dynamic Forecasting Model for Periodic Expenditures of Residential Building Projects using Case-Based Reasoning Logics

사례기반 기법을 이용한 공동주택 월간비용 예측모델 개발

Dynamic and fragmented characteristics ale two of the most significant factors that distinguish the construction industry from other industries. Previous forecasting techniques have failed to solve the problems derived from the above characteristics and do not provide considerable support. This paper deals with providing a more precise forecasting by applying Case-based Reasoning (CBR). The newly developed model in this study enables project managers to forecast monthly expenditures with less time and effort by retrieving and referring only projects of a similar nature, while filtering out irrelevant cases included in database. For the purpose of accurate forecasting. the choice of the numbers of referring projects was investigated. it is concluded that selecting similar projects at $5\~6\;\%$ out of the whole database will produce a more precise forecasting. The new forecasting model. which suggests the predicted values based on previous projects, is more than just a forecasting methodology it provides a bridge that enables current data collection techniques to be used within the context of the accumulated information. This will eventually help all the participants in the construction industry to build up the know ledge derived from invaluable experience.