• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.385-391
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 수요 및 공급요인 외 해상운임에 영향을 주는 다양한 변수들을 발굴하고자 다변량 시계열분석을 수행해 보았다. 우선 종속변수에는 해상운임을 대용할 변수로 Shipping Intelligence에서 제공하고 있는 종합운임지수(ClarkSea Index), 벌크선운임(Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings), 탱커선운임(Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings) 등을 활용하였다. 선행연구를 통해 해상운임에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상되는 세계 해상물동량(World Seaborne Trade), 세계 선복량(World Fleet), 유가(Brent Crude Oil Price), 세계 GDP성장률(GDP World), OECD 산업생산성장률(Industrial Production OECD), 금리(US$ LIBOR 6 Months), OECD 인플레이션(CPI OECD) 등을 독립변수로 설정하여 회귀분석을 수행해 보았다. 데이터는 시계열자료로 1992년부터 2020년까지의 연데이터로 구성하였다. 분석결과 종합운임지수에는 해상물동량과 유가가, 벌크선운임에는 해상물동량만이, 탱커선운임에는 해상물동량, 유가, 산업생산성장률, 인플레이션 등이 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.447-467
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• 2016

The RTAs with trade facilitation provisions have been expected to generate a larger net trade-creating effect and complement the discriminatory feature of RTAs but have yet to be empirically proven. Recognizing the limitations of existing studies, we conducted a quantitative analysis on the effects of RTAs with and without trade facilitation provisions on both intra- and extra-bloc trade by using a modified gravity equation. We applied the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation with time varying exporter and importer fixed effect method to panel data consisting of 45,770 country pairs covering 170 countries for 2000-2010. We found that the trade facilitation provisions in existing RTAs are non-discriminatory by generating more intra- and extra-bloc trade in general. In particular, we found that the trade effects of RTAs in the APEC region are much stronger than the general case covering all RTAs in the world. In addition, as we control the trade effect of a country's trade facilitation, which is ranked by the World Bank's logistic performance index, RTAs consisting of trade facilitation provisions are discriminatory for trade in final goods and non-discriminatory for trade in intermediate goods. Overall, we endeavor to "explain," instead of "hypothesizing," why most of the recent RTAs contain trade facilitation provisions, especially in light of the deepening regional interdependence through trade in parts and components under global value chains and support the necessity of multilateralizing RTAs by implementing non-discriminatory trade facilitation provisions.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.21-44
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• 2022

Purpose - This study quantifies sources of trade balance dynamics over the business cycle in Korea. Specifically, we quantify the relative importance of domestic and foreign factors on trade balance dynamics using a small open economy real business cycle (SOE-RBC) model and provide policy implications for stabilization policies. Aggregate productivity and interest rate spreads are considered domestic factors affecting the trade balance. A world interest rate (the U.S. interest rate) is considered a foreign factor. Design/methodology - Following Neumeyer and Perri (2005), we build the SOE-RBC model with three types of shocks: aggregate productivity, interest rate spread, and world interest shocks. The model is estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM) using relevant business cycle statistics. The estimated model is used for quantifying the relative importance of domestic and foreign factors on trade balance dynamics in Korea. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows: 85.64% of the trade balance fluctuations in Korea are explained by domestic factors, the remaining 14.35% by foreign factors. Particularly, trade balance dynamics are mostly accounted for by the change in aggregate productivity shocks (85.58%). World interest rate shocks considerably explain trade balance (14.35%), whereas the role of interest rate spread shocks that represent domestic risks is limited (0.08%). Although aggregate productivity is key in explaining trade balance dynamics in Korea, interest rates still have an essential role. This is because aggregate productivity changes induce interest rate spread variations and, thus, the trade balance significantly. The results suggest that government policies mitigating fluctuations in aggregate productivity would be effective for stabilization policies in Korea by reducing the trade balance volatility. Originality/value - Existing studies on the emerging market business cycle examine mostly Latin American countries, and the main object of the studies is the volatility of consumption rather than trade balance dynamics. Conversely, our study examines Korea rather than Latin American countries. Additionally, we examine sources of trade balance dynamics, which are relatively more important in Korea, rather than those of the volatility of consumption. Hence, we estimate the model to explicitly match moments related to trade balance in the data.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.275-288
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• 2004

The rising of east-north economic bloc is notable in world economy due to the rapidly growth of china economy. The China's economic standing is gradually higher and higher because the joining of the WTO at 2001, development of the exterior open-door policy and the expansion of the trade between chain and several nations. Since Korea and China normalized diplomatic ties in 1992, the two have made remarkable progress in bilateral relations in the fields of economy and diplomacy in particular. The amount of Korea's trade with China has increased by over 20% a year on the average because of the development of the economic cooperation of Korea and China. That is to say, China was sixth trade partner by the end of 1993, based on the amount of trade. But China became third partner at 1993, second partner at 2003 and first partner at the first half of 2004, based on the amount of trade. Korea can not trade with China from the Korea's port opening period to Cold War period after second world war. But historically, the two countries have shared a active and long history of trade relations from the ancient times up to now. This is because two countries get near geographically and two countries have a implication of history and culture. Not only had Korea trade with China at prehistoric age, but also at BC 7. We knew that Korea had traded with China very actively at ancient times through the Paekje(Korea's ancient country) people's village at Santung province and Changbogo's trade works. Korea-china trade relation has played an important role for the development of world economy. Therefor, based on reviewing the korea-china trade, I study the historical meaning of the trade at the region of east-north asia.

• 한국경제지리학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.35-51
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• 2000

국제교역흐름은 경제적 요인들 뿐 만 아니라 세계의 사회, 정치, 문화적 환경에 의하여 결정되어 왔다. 세계화와 더불어 국제교역환경도 빠르게 변화하고 있으며, 이러한 변화는 국제교역의 흐름에 상당한 변화를 주고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 경제의 세계화가 국제교역의 흐름에 미치는 영향을 파악하고자 하는 것이다. 우선 국제교역에 나타나는 변화를 특히 경제적, 사회적, 정치적으로 국제적 연계가 강화되면서 나타나는 경제적 결합에 초점을 두어 산업 입지와 투자, 그리고 그 밖의 교역환경들과 연결하여 종합적으로 파악해 보았다. 특히 산업 입지에 변화를 주어 상품의 수요와 공급의 공간적 분포를 재편하는 역할과 함께 기업내 교역흐름을 확장시켜 결과적으로 국제교역패턴에 영향을 끼치고 있는 다국적 기업들에 의한 해외직접투자의 영향을 분석하였다. 기업내 교역은 해외직접투자의 흐름에 의해 결정되므로 본 연구에서는 해외직접투자의 기원지와 대상지의 지리적 특성을 분석하였다. 또한 해외직접투자와 기업내 교역의 공간적 분포에 나타나는 변화를 분석하였다.

• 한국철도학회지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.9-15
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• 2001

The railways in Russia is a core of the industrial, trade and technological development. They changed the country for the best affecting all sides of its life. The total length of the railways in Russia is 87,500 km (7％ of the World railway network). They account for about a 25％ of the World freight and 15% of the passenger traffic. In terms of length of electrified railways Russia is a World leader and in terms of total length of tracks it is second after the USA. Annual freight turnover is the third after the USA and China. (omitted)

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.51-62
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• 2019

This study predicts the future world seaborne trade volume with econometrics methods using 23-year time series data provided by Clarksons. For this purpose, this study uses simple regression analysis, exponential smoothing method and seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR Model). This study is meaningful in that it predicts worldwide total seaborne trade volume and seaborne traffic in four major items (container, bulk, crude oil, and LNG) from 2019 to 2023 as there are few prior studies that predict future seaborne traffic using recent data. It is expected that more useful references can be provided to trade related workers if the analysis period was increased and additional variables could be included in future studies.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제56권
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• pp.57-76
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• 2012

As globalization accelerates and the trade environment rapidly changes, a more prepared trade workforce is required for the business world. The trade department is an important educational institution that educates and trains future trade talent. Thus, in the evolving trade environment, their role has significant implications for the economic growth of Korea. The present paper is a comparative study of the importance of the university education system in terms of the trade work force through the Person-Organization fit (P-O fit) perspective. We observe that the American trade education system is more oriented to meet and reflect the needs from the real world. It contains a support structure through various governmental organizations that offer financial incentives as well as educational opportunities through internships and other hands-on experiences. The trade education systems in universities in Korea are still static by comparison and are recommended to implement changes that will give students more practical exposure to trade. The governmental and business sectors are also encouraged to support universities in achieving these goals through building a strong cooperative network with university trade departments.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제14권
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• pp.349-370
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• 2000

The environmental problems such as global climate change, global waming, ozone depletion, environmental pollution have been caused by the rapid economic growth, increasing in use of fossil fuels for industrialization and scientific technology development. Especially human activities are significantly altering the atomosphere's composition and its radiative properties. To Stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, the international community adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and Kyoto protocol in 1997. Also to protect ozone layer the international community adopted the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer in 1985, and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 1987. To achieve global environmental objectives, some multilateral environmental agreements includes trade regulation. For example, Montreal Protocol includes the provisions to regulate the world trade of the sudstances which might destroy ozone layer. However Kyoto Protocol has no provisions to regulate trade and is not in force yet. Although there is no trade regulation article in Kyoto Protocol, the international world trade will be influenced by limitation and reduction of CO2 and strengthening the CO2 emission standard for import good. For example Korean car industy agreed with EU to reduce CO2 emission from new passenger car and Korean Semiconductor industry agreed with WSC(World Semiconductor Council) to reduce PFCs in 1999.

• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.177-189
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• 2020

The OECD has assessed Korea as the third highest in trade facilitation worldwide. The paperless trade of Korea is world class based on uTradeHub : national e-trade service's infrastructure for trade community. Over 800 trade-related document standards provide interoperability of message exchange and trade process automation among exporters, importers, banks, customs, airlines, shippers, forwarders and trade authorities. Most one-to-one unit processes are perfectly paperless & online; however, from the perspective of process flow, there is a lack of streamlining end-to-end trade processes spread over many different parties. This situation causes the trade community to endure repetitive-redundant load for handling trade documents. The trade community has a strong demand for seamless trade flow. For streamlining the trade process, processes with data should flow seamlessly to multilateral parties. Flowing data with an optimized process is the critical success factor to accomplish seamless trade. This study proposes four critical digital trade infrastructures as a platform service : (1) data-centric Intelligent Document Recognition(IDR), (2) data-driven Digital Document Flow (DDF), (3) platform based Digital Collaboration & Communication(DCC), and (4) new digital Trade Facilitation Index (dTFI) for precise assessment of K-Trade Digital Trade Framework. The results of new dTFI analyses showed that redundant reentry load was reduced significantly over the whole trade and logistics process. This study leads to the belief that if put into real-world application can provide huge economic gains by building a new global value chain of the K-trade eco network. A new digital trade framework will be invaluable in promoting national soft power for enhancing global competitiveness of the trade community. It could become the advanced reference model of next trade facilitation infrastructure for developing countries.