• Title/Summary/Keyword: world of difference

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Performance Improvement on Short Volatility Strategy with Asymmetric Spillover Effect and SVM (비대칭적 전이효과와 SVM을 이용한 변동성 매도전략의 수익성 개선)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2020
  • Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.

System Development for Measuring Group Engagement in the Art Center (공연장에서 다중 몰입도 측정을 위한 시스템 개발)

  • Ryu, Joon Mo;Choi, Il Young;Choi, Lee Kwon;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 2014
  • The Korean Culture Contents spread out to Worldwide, because the Korean wave is sweeping in the world. The contents stand in the middle of the Korean wave that we are used it. Each country is ongoing to keep their Culture industry improve the national brand and High added value. Performing contents is important factor of arousal in the enterprise industry. To improve high arousal confidence of product and positive attitude by populace is one of important factor by advertiser. Culture contents is the same situation. If culture contents have trusted by everyone, they will give information their around to spread word-of-mouth. So, many researcher study to measure for person's arousal analysis by statistical survey, physiological response, body movement and facial expression. First, Statistical survey has a problem that it is not possible to measure each person's arousal real time and we cannot get good survey result after they watched contents. Second, physiological response should be checked with surround because experimenter sets sensors up their chair or space by each of them. Additionally it is difficult to handle provided amount of information with real time from their sensor. Third, body movement is easy to get their movement from camera but it difficult to set up experimental condition, to measure their body language and to get the meaning. Lastly, many researcher study facial expression. They measures facial expression, eye tracking and face posed. Most of previous studies about arousal and interest are mostly limited to reaction of just one person and they have problems with application multi audiences. They have a particular method, for example they need room light surround, but set limits only one person and special environment condition in the laboratory. Also, we need to measure arousal in the contents, but is difficult to define also it is not easy to collect reaction by audiences immediately. Many audience in the theater watch performance. We suggest the system to measure multi-audience's reaction with real-time during performance. We use difference image analysis method for multi-audience but it weaks a dark field. To overcome dark environment during recoding IR camera can get the photo from dark area. In addition we present Multi-Audience Engagement Index (MAEI) to calculate algorithm which sources from sound, audience' movement and eye tracking value. Algorithm calculates audience arousal from the mobile survey, sound value, audience' reaction and audience eye's tracking. It improves accuracy of Multi-Audience Engagement Index, we compare Multi-Audience Engagement Index with mobile survey. And then it send the result to reporting system and proposal an interested persons. Mobile surveys are easy, fast, and visitors' discomfort can be minimized. Also additional information can be provided mobile advantage. Mobile application to communicate with the database, real-time information on visitors' attitudes focused on the content stored. Database can provide different survey every time based on provided information. The example shown in the survey are as follows: Impressive scene, Satisfied, Touched, Interested, Didn't pay attention and so on. The suggested system is combine as 3 parts. The system consist of three parts, External Device, Server and Internal Device. External Device can record multi-Audience in the dark field with IR camera and sound signal. Also we use survey with mobile application and send the data to ERD Server DB. The Server part's contain contents' data, such as each scene's weights value, group audience weights index, camera control program, algorithm and calculate Multi-Audience Engagement Index. Internal Device presents Multi-Audience Engagement Index with Web UI, print and display field monitor. Our system is test-operated by the Mogencelab in the DMC display exhibition hall which is located in the Sangam Dong, Mapo Gu, Seoul. We have still gotten from visitor daily. If we find this system audience arousal factor with this will be very useful to create contents.

Studies on the Physical Properties of Major Tree Barks Grown in Korea -Genus Pinus, Populus and Quercus- (한국산(韓國産) 주요(主要) 수종(樹種) 수피(樹皮)의 이학적(理學的) 성질(性質)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) -소나무속(屬), 사시나무속(屬), 참나무속(屬)을 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Lee, Hwa Hyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.33-58
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    • 1977
  • A bark comprises about 10 to 20 percents of a typical log by volume, and is generally considered as an unwanted residue rather than a potentially valuable resourses. As the world has been confronted with decreasing forest resources, natural resources pressure dictate that a bark should be a raw material instead of a waste. The utilization of the largely wasted bark of genus Pinus, Quercus, and Populus grown in Korea can be enhanced by learning its physical and mechanical properties. However, the study of tree bark grown in Korea have never been undertaken. In the present paper, an investigative study is carried out on the bark of three genus, eleven species representing not only the major bark trees but major species currently grown in Korea. For each species 20 trees were selected, at Suweon and Kwang-neung areas, on the same basis of the diameter class at the proper harvesting age. One $200cm^2$ segment of bark was obtained from each tree at brest height. Physical properties of bark studied are: bark density, moisture content of green bark (inner-, outer-, and total-bark), fiber saturation point, hysteresis loop, shrinkage, water absorption, specific heat, heat of wetting, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, heat of combustion, and differential thermal analysis. The mechanical properties are studied on bending and compression strength (radial, longitudinal, and tangential). The results may be summarized as follows: 1. The oven-dry specific gravities differ between wood and bark, further more even for a given bark sample, the difference is obersved between inner and outer bark. 2. The oven-dry specific gravity of bark is higher than that of wood. This fact is attributed to the anatomical structure whose characters are manifested by higher content of sieve fiber and sclereids. 3. Except Pinus koraiensis, the oven-dry specific gravity of inner bark is higher than that of outer bark, which results from higher shrinkage of inner bark. 4. The moisture content of bark increases with direct proportion to the composition ratio of sieve components and decreases with higher percent of sclerenchyma and periderm tissues. 5. The possibility of determining fiber saturation point is suggested by the measuring the heat of wetting. With the proposed method, the fiber saturation point of Pinus densiflora lies between 26 and 28%, that of Quercus accutissima ranges from 24 to 28%. These results need be further examined by other methods. 6. Contrary to the behavior of wood, the bark shrinkage is the highest in radial direction and the lowest in longitudinal direction. Quercus serrata and Q. variabilis do not fall in this category. 7. Bark shows the same specific heat as wood, but the heat of wetting of bark is higher than that of wood. In heat conductivity, bark is lower than wood. From the measures of oven-dry specific gravity (${\rho}d$) and moisture fraction specific gravity (${\rho}m$) is devised the following regression equation upon which heat conductivity can be calculated. The calculated heat conductivity of bark is between $0.8{\times}10^{-4}$ and $1.6{\times}10^{-4}cal/cm-sec-deg$. $$K=4.631+11.408{\rho}d+7.628{\rho}m$$ 8. The bark heat diffusivity varies from $8.03{\times}10^{-4}$ to $4.46{\times}10^{-4}cm^2/sec$. From differential thermal analysis, wood shows a higher thermogram than bark under ignition point, but the tendency is reversed above ignition point. 9. The modulus of rupture for static bending strength of bark is proportional to the density of bark which in turn gives the following regression equation. M=243.78X-12.02 The compressive strength of bark is the highest in radial direction, contrary to the behavior of wood, and the compressive strength of longitudinal direction follows the tangential one in decreasing order.

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