• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권8호
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• pp.2523-2533
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• 2021

In the last decade, the best estimate plus uncertainty methodologies in nuclear technology and nuclear power plant design have become a trending topic in the nuclear field. Since BEPU was allowed for licensing purposes by the most important regulator bodies, different uncertainty assessment methods have become popular, overall non-parametric methods. While non-parametric tolerance regions can be well stated and used in uncertainty quantification for licensing purposes, the propagation of the uncertainty through different codes (multi-scale, multiphysics) in cascade needs a better depiction of uncertainty than the one provided by the tolerance regions or a probability distribution. An alternative method based on the parametric or distributional probability boxes is used to perform uncertainty quantification and propagation regarding statistic uncertainty from one code to another. This method is sample-size independent and allows well-defined tolerance intervals for uncertainty quantification, manageable for uncertainty propagation. This work characterizes the distributional p-boxes behavior on uncertainty quantification and uncertainty propagation through nested random sampling.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.191-200
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• 2007

This paper introduces a tool for predicting potential cost overrun during project execution and for quantifying the uncertainty on the expected project cost, which is occasionally changed by the unknown effects resulted from project's complications and unforeseen environments. The model proposed in this stuff is useful in diagnosing cost performance as a project progresses and in monitoring the changes of the uncertainty as indicators for a warning signal. This model is intended for the use by project managers who forecast the change of the uncertainty and its magnitude. The paper presents a mathematical approach for modifying the costs of incomplete work packages and project cost, and quantifying reduced uncertainties at a consistent confidence level as actual cost information of an ongoing project is obtained. Furthermore, this approach addresses the effects of actual informed data of completed work packages on the re-estimates of incomplete work packages and describes the impacts on the variation of the uncertainty for the expected project cost incorporating Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis (MPA) and Bayes' Theorem. For the illustration purpose, the Introduced model has employed an example construction project. The results are analyzed to demonstrate the use of the model and illustrate its capabilities.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.137-137
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• 2022

Evaluating interpolated rainfall uncertainty of hydrological models caused by different interpolation methods for basins where can not fully collect rainfall data are necessary. In this study, the adaptive MCMC method under effects of ILFs was used to analyze the interpolated rainfall uncertainty of the SURR model for Gunnam basin, Korea. Three events were used to calibrate and one event was used to validate the posterior distributions of unknown parameters. In this work, the performance of four ILFs on uncertainty of interpolated rainfall was assessed. The indicators of p_factor (percentage of observed streamflow included in the uncertainty interval) and r_factor (the average width of the uncertainty interval) were used to evaluate the uncertainty of the simulated streamflow. The results showed that the uncertainty bounds illustrated the slight differences from various ILFs. The study confirmed the importance of the likelihood function selection in the application the adaptive Bayesian MCMC method to the uncertainty assessment of the SURR model caused by interpolated rainfall.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.263-276
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• 2007

This paper presents a fuzzy finite element model for the analysis of structures in the presence of multiple uncertainties. A new methodology to evaluate the cumulative effect of multiple uncertainties on structural response is developed in the present work. This is done by modifying Muhanna's approach for handling single uncertainty. Uncertainty in load and material properties is defined by triangular membership functions with equal spread about the crisp value. Structural response is obtained in terms of fuzzy interval displacements and rotations. The results are further post-processed to obtain interval values of bending moment, shear force and axial forces. Membership functions are constructed to depict the uncertainty in structural response. Sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative sensitivity of displacements and forces to uncertainty in structural parameters. The present work demonstrates the effectiveness of fuzzy finite element model in establishing sharp bounds to the uncertain structural response in the presence of multiple uncertainties.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권8호
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• pp.1626-1637
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• 2020

This work covers an important point of the benchmark released by the expert group on Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling of Light Water Reactors. This ambitious benchmark aims to determine the uncertainty in light water reactors systems and processes in all stages of calculation, with emphasis on multi-physics (coupled) and multi-scale simulations. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit methodology is used to propagate the thermal-hydraulic uncertainty of macroscopic parameters through TRACE5.0p3/PARCSv3.0 coupled code. The main innovative points achieved in this work are i) a new thermal-hydraulic model is developed with a highly-accurate 3D core discretization plus an iterative process is presented to adjust the 3D bypass flow, ii) a control rod insertion occurrence -which data is obtained from a real PWR test- is used as a transient simulation, iii) two approaches are used for the propagation process: maximum response where the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is performed for the maximum absolute response and index dependent where the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is performed at each time step, and iv) RESTING MATLAB code is developed to automate the model generation process and, then, propagate the thermal-hydraulic uncertainty. The input uncertainty information is found in related literature or, if not found, defined based on expert judgment. This paper, first, presents the Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit methodology to propagate the uncertainty in thermal-hydraulic macroscopic parameters and, then, shows the results when the methodology is applied to a PWR reactor.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.327-334
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• 2002

The work presents sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of 2-compartment model for the evaluation of indoor radon pollution in a house. Effort on the development of such model is directed towards the prediction of the generation and transfer of radon in indoor air released from groundwater. The model is used to estimate a quantitative daily human exposure through inhalation of such radon based on exposure scenarios. However, prediction from the model has uncertainty propagated from uncertainties in model parameters. In order to assess how model predictions are affected by the uncertainties of model inputs, the study performs a quantitative uncertainty analysis in conjunction with the developed model. An importance analysis is performed to rank input parameters with respect to their contribution to model prediction based on the uncertainty analysis. The results obtained from this study would be used to the evaluation of human risk by inhalation associated with the indoor pollution by radon released from groundwater.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.45-71
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• 1997

There has been considerable research recently on uncertainty handling in the fields of artificial intelligence and knowledge-based system. Various numerical and non-numerical methods have been proposed for representing and propagating uncertainty in knowledge-based system. The Bayesian method, the Dempster-Shafer's Evidence Theory, the Certainty Factor model and the Fuzzy Set Theory are most frequently appeared in the knowledge-based system. Each of these four methods views uncertainty from a different perspective and propagates it differently. There is no single method which can handle uncertainty properly in all kinds of knowledge-based systems' domain. Therefore a knowledge-based system will work more effectively when the uncertainty handling method in the system fits to the system's environment. This paper proposed a framework for selecting proper uncertainty handling methods in knowledge-based system with respect to characteristics of problem domain and cognitive styles of experts. A schema with strategic/operational and unstructured/structured classification is employed to differenciate domain. And a schema with systematic/intuitive and preceptive/receptive classification is employed to differenciate experts' cognitive style. The characteristics of uncertainty handling methods are compared with characteristics of problem domains and cognitive styles respectively. Then a proper uncertainty handling method is proposed for each category.

• 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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• 기술경영경제학회 1997년도 제11회 하계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.83-123
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• 1997

The psychological work environments which facilitate technology innovations in organizations are divided into two dimensions of supportive work environments and challenging work environments. The confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the construct validity of two work environments. And simple and hierarchical regression analysis confirmed the significant effects of two work environments on motivations to the technology innovations. Therefore, Both of the challenging work environments(uncertainty of exta- organizational environments and tasks) and supportive work environments(managerial environments of intra-organizations) are the two important psychological work environments which facilitate technology innovations in organizations.

• 한국조리학회지
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.339-356
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to provide the developmental basic data of a change in shift work types by making a self-administered survey of the effect of commitment by shift work and the open kitchen system on job satisfaction and job stress, and mutual relation between variables on 287 cooks in luxury hotels. Analysis showed that the operation of the shift work system was effective in reducing the internal stress of the cooks, their external stress, or their self-uncertainty on the job, and the business by the open kitchen system was effective in raising self-esteem. In addition, job commitment by shift work and the open kitchen system were effective in promoting the job satisfaction of employees, interpersonal relations, promotion, benefits and wages. Consequently, the decrease of external and internal stress or self-uncertainty and the improvement of job satisfaction can be connected with the increase of productivity or cost reduction. Therefore, the open kitchen system should be properly applied to the shift work system, along with sanitation, safety and the periodic checkup of kitchen.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제16권7호
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• pp.41-49
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• 2016

오늘날 정보통신기술이 발달함에 따라 전산화된 의료정보의 유출 및 보호 문제가 사회적 이슈가 되었다. 더불어 정부에서도 의료기관의 정보보호를 위해 제도적 개선을 진행하고 있다. 그러나 의료기관의 정보보호 역량을 제고하기 위한 노력들은 자칫 의료기관 종사자들에게 스트레스를 증가시키고, 나아가 의료기관의 본질인 의료서비스의 질 하락을 야기할 수 있다. 따라서 의료기관이 관리하는 정보의 보호를 강화함에 있어서 의료기관 종사자들의 보안에 따른 스트레스 정도 및 그 선행요인들에 대해 연구할 필요성이 있다. 기존 연구를 분석하여 보안스트레스와 보안스트레스에 영향을 미치는 요인을 선정하였다. 이를 통해 업무 과중, 프라이버시 침해 그리고 업무 불확실성이라는 변수를 도출하였다. 본 연구는 국내 병원 종사자들 123명의 데이터를 수집, SPSS 21.0을 사용하여 검증하였다. 본 연구의 결과로 업무 과중, 프라이버시 침해, 그리고 업무 불확실성의 일부는 보안 스트레스에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 요인으로 나타났다.