• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.395-403
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• 2017

An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, $Q_V(r)$, of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of $Q_V(r)$ and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.277-293
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• 2024

The recorded thunderstorm winds at a point contain tri-directional components. The probabilistic characteristics of such recorded winds in terms of instantaneous mean wind speed and direction, and the probability distribution and the time-frequency dependent crossed and non-crossed power spectral density functions for the high-frequency fluctuating wind components are unclear. In the present study, we analyze the recorded tri-directional thunderstorm wind components by separating the recorded winds in terms of low-frequency time-varying mean wind speed and high-frequency fluctuating wind components in the alongwind direction and two orthogonal crosswind directions. We determine the time-varying mean wind speed and direction defined by azimuth and elevation angles, and analyze the spectra of high-frequency wind components in three orthogonal directions using continuous wavelet transforms. Additionally, we evaluate the coherence between each pair of fluctuating winds. Based on the analysis results, we develop empirical spectral models and lagged coherence models for the tri-directional fluctuating wind components, and we indicate that the fluctuating wind components can be treated as Gaussian. We show how they can be used to generate time histories of the tri-directional thunderstorm winds.

• Journal of Hydrogen and New Energy
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.614-620
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• 2019

In the present study, the wind characteristics were analyzed according to the time averages to evaluate the performance of small wind turbines required for the development of energy independent village. Measuring data of wind speed were recorded between January 2016 and April 2016 every second. Experimental data is averaged out using 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 minute time steps. Throughout the experimental data analysis, 5 minutes averaged data is used to analyze the performance of the wind turbine, because it produces a minimum turbulence intensity in wind speed. The measuring power of the wind turbine is less than the designed value due to the unsteady nature wind of sudden changes in magnitude of wind speed and wind angle. Detailed wind conditions are also analysed using two variable Weibull probability density functions.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.623-647
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• 2014

In this paper, a probability distribution which is consistent with the observed phenomenon at the roof corner and, also on other portions of the roof, of a low-rise building is proposed. The model is consistent with the choice of probability density function suggested by the statistical thermodynamics of open systems and turbulence modelling in fluid mechanics. After presenting the justification based on physical phenomenon and based on statistical arguments, the fit of alpha-stable distribution for prediction of extreme negative wind pressure coefficients is explored. The predictions are compared with those actually observed during wind tunnel experiments (using wind tunnel experimental data obtained from the aerodynamic database of Tokyo Polytechnic University), and those predicted by using Gumbel minimum and Hermite polynomial model. The predictions are also compared with those estimated using a recently proposed non-parametric model in regions where stability criterion (in skewness-kurtosis space) is satisfied. From the comparisons, it is noted that the proposed model can be used to estimate the extreme peak negative wind pressure coefficients. The model has an advantage that it is consistent with the physical processes proposed in the literature for explaining large fluctuations at the roof corners.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.205-210
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• 2008

In recent years, the crisis of energy is growing seriously and also the contamination of ecology has been reverberated as international problem. The social concern about energy crisis has been growing for the last several years and also the interest in new and renewable energy has been increased. The probability of wind power resource over Saemangeum is reviewed with the data of Gunsan weather station. Through this study, it is cleared that the Saemangeum area has fluent wind power source to design the wind farm in Korea. According to calculation results, it is possible to predict the wind velocity density around the Saemangeum area using the shape factor as a parameter.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.549-560
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• 2020

Methods for stochastic simulation of non-Gaussian wind pressure have increasingly addressed the efficiency and accuracy contents to offer an accurate description of the extreme value estimation of the long-span and high-rise structures. This paper presents a linear prediction and z-transform (LPZ) based Cumulative distribution function (CDF) mapping algorithm for the simulation of multivariate non-Gaussian fluctuating wind pressure. The new algorithm generates realizations of non-Gaussian with prescribed marginal probability distribution function (PDF) and prescribed spectral density function (PSD). The inverse linear prediction and z-transform function (ILPZ) is deduced. LPZ is improved and applied to non-Gaussian wind pressure simulation for the first time. The new algorithm is demonstrated to be efficient, flexible, and more accurate in comparison with the FFT-based method and Hermite polynomial model method in two examples for transverse softening and longitudinal hardening non-Gaussian wind pressures.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.309-323
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• 2024

The gust factor and turbulence intensity are two crucial parameters that characterize the properties of turbulence. In tropical cyclones (TCs), these parameters exhibit significant variability, yet there is a lack of established formulas to account for their probabilistic characteristics with consideration of their inherent connection. On this condition, a probabilistic analysis of gust factors and turbulence intensities of TCs is conducted based on fourteen sets of wind data collected at the Sutong Cable-stayed Bridge site. Initially, the turbulence intensities and gust factors of recorded data are computed, followed by an analysis of their probability densities across different ranges categorized by mean wind speed. The Gaussian, lognormal, and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions are employed to fit the measured probability densities, with subsequent evaluation of their effectiveness. The Gumbel distribution, which is a specific instance of the GEV distribution, has been identified as an optimal choice for probabilistic characterizations of turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. The corresponding empirical models are then established through curve fitting. By utilizing the Gumbel distribution as a template, the nexus between the probability density functions of turbulence intensity and gust factor is built, leading to the development of a generalized probabilistic model that statistically describe turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. Finally, these empirical models are validated using measured data and compared with suggestions recommended by specifications.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.689-700
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• 2017

This paper presents an effective approach for wind turbine (WT) condition assessment based on the data collected from wind farm supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Three types of assessment indices are determined based on the monitoring parameters obtained from the SCADA system. Neural Networks (NNs) are used to establish prediction models for the assessment indices that are dependent on environmental conditions such as ambient temperature and wind speed. An abnormal level index (ALI) is defined to quantify the abnormal level of the proposed indices. Prediction errors of the prediction models follow a normal distribution. Thus, the ALIs can be calculated based on the probability density function of normal distribution. For other assessment indices, the ALIs are calculated by the nonparametric estimation based cumulative probability density function. A Back-Propagation NN (BPNN) algorithm is used for the overall WT condition assessment. The inputs to the BPNN are the ALIs of the proposed indices. The network structure and the number of nodes in the hidden layer are carefully chosen when the BPNN model is being trained. The condition assessment method has been used for real 1.5 MW WTs with doubly fed induction generators. Results show that the proposed assessment method could effectively predict the change of operating conditions prior to fault occurrences and provide early alarming of the developing faults of WTs.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.217-227
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• 2020

Based on translation models, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian wind fields are generated using spectral representation method for investigating the influence of non-Gaussian characteristics and directivity effect of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine. Using the blade aerodynamic model and multi-body dynamics, dynamic responses are calculated. Using linear damage accumulation theory and linear crack propagation theory, crack initiation life and crack propagation life are discussed with consideration of the joint probability density distribution of the wind direction and mean wind speed in detail. The result shows that non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load have less influence on fatigue life of wind turbine in the area with smaller annual mean wind speeds. Whereas, the influence becomes significant with the increase of the annual mean wind speed. When the annual mean wind speeds are 7 m/s and 9 m/s at hub height of 90 m, the crack initiation lives under softening non-Gaussian wind decrease by 10% compared with Gaussian wind fields or at higher hub height. The study indicates that the consideration of the influence of softening non-Gaussian characteristics of wind inflows can significantly decrease the fatigue life, and, if neglected, it can result in non-conservative fatigue life estimates for the areas with higher annual mean wind speeds.

• Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.136-140
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• 2018

We propose an improved semi-empirical scattering model for X-band radar backscattering from rough sea surfaces. This new model has a wider validity range of wind speeds than does the existing semi-empirical sea spectrum (SESS) model. First, we retrieved the small-roughness parameters from the sea surfaces, which were numerically generated using the Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum and measurement datasets for various wind speeds. Then, we computed the backscattering coefficients of the small-roughness surfaces for various wind speeds using the integral equation method model. Finally, the large-roughness characteristics were taken into account by integrating the small-roughness backscattering coefficients multiplying them with the surface slope probability density function for all possible surface slopes. The new model includes a wind speed range below 3.46 m/s, which was not covered by the existing SESS model. The accuracy of the new model was verified with two measurement datasets for various wind speeds from 0.5 m/s to 14 m/s.