• Title/Summary/Keyword: wind probability density

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Wind-induced fragility assessment of urban trees with structural uncertainties

  • Peng, Yongbo;Wang, Zhiheng;Ai, Xiaoqiu
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2018
  • Wind damage of urban trees arises to be a serious issue especially in the typhoon-prone areas. As a family of tree species widely-planted in Southeast China, the structural behaviors of Plane tree is investigated. In order to accommodate the complexities of tree morphology, a fractal theory based finite element modeling method is proposed. On-site measurement of Plane trees is performed for physical definition of structural parameters. It is revealed that modal frequencies of Plane trees distribute in a manner of grouped dense-frequencies; bending is the main mode of structural failure. In conjunction with the probability density evolution method, the fragility assessment of urban trees subjected to wind excitations is then proceeded. Numerical results indicate that small-size segments such as secondary branches feature a relatively higher failure risk in a low wind level, and a relatively lower failure risk in a high wind level owing to windward shrinks. Besides, the trunk of Plane tree is the segment most likely to be damaged than other segments in case of high winds. The failure position tends to occur at the connection between trunk and primary branches, where the logical protections and reinforcement measures can be implemented for mitigating the wind damage.

Extraction of optimal time-varying mean of non-stationary wind speeds based on empirical mode decomposition

  • Cai, Kang;Li, Xiao;Zhi, Lun-hai;Han, Xu-liang
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.77 no.3
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    • pp.355-368
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    • 2021
  • The time-varying mean (TVM) component of non-stationary wind speeds is commonly extracted utilizing empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in practice, whereas the accuracy of the extracted TVM is difficult to be quantified. To deal with this problem, this paper proposes an approach to identify and extract the optimal TVM from several TVM results obtained by the EMD. It is suggested that the optimal TVM of a 10-min time history of wind speeds should meet both the following conditions: (1) the probability density function (PDF) of fluctuating wind component agrees well with the modified Gaussian function (MGF). At this stage, a coefficient p is newly defined as an evaluation index to quantify the correlation between PDF and MGF. The smaller the p is, the better the derived TVM is; (2) the number of local maxima of obtained optimal TVM within a 10-min time interval is less than 6. The proposed approach is validated by a numerical example, and it is also adopted to extract the optimal TVM from the field measurement records of wind speeds collected during a sandstorm event.

Typhoon wind hazard analysis using the decoupling approach

  • Hong, Xu;Li, Jie
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2022
  • Analyzing the typhoon wind hazards is crucial to determine the extreme wind load on engineering structures in the typhoon prone region. In essence, the typhoon hazard analysis is a high-dimensional problem with randomness arising from the typhoon genesis, environmental variables and the boundary layer wind field. This study suggests a dimension reduction approach by decoupling the original typhoon hazard analysis into two stages. At the first stage, the randomness of the typhoon genesis and environmental variables are propagated through the typhoon track model and intensity model into the randomness of the key typhoon parameters. At the second stage, the probability distribution information of the key typhoon parameters, combined with the randomness of the boundary layer wind field, could be used to estimate the extreme wind hazard. The Chinese southeast coastline is taken as an example to demonstrate the adequacy and efficiency of the suggested decoupling approach.

Mathematical representation to assess the wind resource by three parameter Weibull distribution

  • Sukkiramathi, K.;Rajkumar, R.;Seshaiah, C.V.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.419-430
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    • 2020
  • Weibull distribution is a conspicuous distribution known for its accuracy and its usage for wind energy analysis. The two and three parameter Weibull distributions are adopted in this study to fit wind speed data. The daily mean wind speed data of Ennore, Tamil Nadu, India has been used to validate the procedure. The parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood method, least square method and moment method. Four statistical tests namely Root mean square error, R2 test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Anderson-Darling test are employed to inspect the fitness of Weibull probability density functions. The value of shape factor, scale factor, wind speed and wind power are determined at a height of 100m using extrapolation of numerical equations. Also, the value of capacity factor is calculated mathematically. This study provides a way to evaluate feasible locations for wind energy assessment, which can be used at any windy site throughout the world.

SHM-based probabilistic representation of wind properties: statistical analysis and bivariate modeling

  • Ye, X.W.;Yuan, L.;Xi, P.S.;Liu, H.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.591-600
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    • 2018
  • The probabilistic characterization of wind field characteristics is a significant task for fatigue reliability assessment of long-span railway bridges in wind-prone regions. In consideration of the effect of wind direction, the stochastic properties of wind field should be represented by a bivariate statistical model of wind speed and direction. This paper presents the construction of the bivariate model of wind speed and direction at the site of a railway arch bridge by use of the long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) data. The wind characteristics are derived by analyzing the real-time wind monitoring data, such as the mean wind speed and direction, turbulence intensity, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method is proposed to formulate the joint distribution model of wind speed and direction. For the probability density function (PDF) of wind speed, a double-parameter Weibull distribution function is utilized, and a von Mises distribution function is applied to represent the PDF of wind direction. The SQP algorithm with multi-start points is used to estimate the parameters in the bivariate model, namely Weibull-von Mises mixture model. One-year wind monitoring data are selected to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method. The optimal model is jointly evaluated by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and coefficient of determination, $R^2$. The obtained results indicate that the proposed SQP algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method can effectively establish the bivariate model of wind speed and direction. The established bivariate model of wind speed and direction will facilitate the wind-induced fatigue reliability assessment of long-span bridges.

Validity of Wind Generation in Consideration of Topographical Characteristics of Korea (지형에 따른 예상풍력발전단지에 관한 고찰)

  • Moon, Chae-Joo;Jung, Kwen-Sung;Cheang, Eui-Heang;Park, Gui-Yeol
    • 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.81-84
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    • 2008
  • This paper discussed the validity of wind force power generation in consideration of the topographical characteristics of Korea. In order to estimate the exact generation of wind power plants, we analyzed and compared wind resources in mountain areas and plain areas by introducing not only wind velocity, the most important variable, but also wind distribution and wind standard deviation that can reflect the influence of landform sufficiently. According to the results of this study, generation was higher at wind power plants installed in southwestern coastal areas where wind velocity was low than at those installed in mountain areas in Gangwondo where wind velocity was high. This suggests that the shape parameter of wind distribution is low due to the characteristics of mountain areas. and the standard deviation of wind velocity is large due to the effect of mountain winds, and therefore, actual generation is low in mountain areas although wind velocity is high.

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Feasibility study of wind power generation considering the topographical characteristics of Korea (우리나라 지형특성을 고려한 풍력발전 타당성 연구)

  • Moon, Chae-Joo;Cheang, Eui-Heang;Shim, Kwan-Shik;Jung, Kwen-Sung;Chang, Young-Hak
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.24-32
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    • 2008
  • This paper discussed the Feasibility study of wind power generation considering the topographical characteristics of Korea. In order to estimate the exact generation of wind power plants, we analyzed and compared wind resources in mountain areas and plain areas by introducing not only wind speed, the most important variable, but also wind distribution and wind standard deviation that can reflect the influence of landform sufficiently. According to the results of this study, generation was almost the same at wind power plants installed in southwestern coastal areas where wind speed was low as at those installed in mountain areas in Gangwondo where wind speed was high. This demonstrates that the shape parameter of wind distribution is low due to the characteristics of mountain areas, and the standard deviation of wind speed is large due to the effect of mountain winds, therefore, actual generation compared to southwestern coastal areas is almost similar in mountain areas even though wind speed is high.

Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic Thermal Rating of Overhead Transmission Line

  • Zhou, Xing;Wang, Yanling;Zhou, Xiaofeng;Tao, Weihua;Niu, Zhiqiang;Qu, Ailing
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.331-343
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    • 2019
  • Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

Examination of experimental errors in Scanlan derivatives of a closed-box bridge deck

  • Rizzo, Fabio;Caracoglia, Luca
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.231-251
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    • 2018
  • The objective of the investigation is the analysis of wind-tunnel experimental errors, associated with the measurement of aeroelastic coefficients of bridge decks (Scanlan flutter derivatives). A two-degree-of-freedom experimental apparatus is used for the measurement of flutter derivatives. A section model of a closed-box bridge deck is considered in this investigation. Identification is based on free-vibration aeroelastic tests and the Iterative Least Squares method. Experimental error investigation is carried out by repeating the measurements and acquisitions thirty times for each wind tunnel speed and configuration of the model. This operational procedure is proposed for analyzing the experimental variability of flutter derivatives. Several statistical quantities are examined; these quantities include the standard deviation and the empirical probability density function of the flutter derivatives at each wind speed. Moreover, the critical flutter speed of the setup is evaluated according to standard flutter theory by accounting for experimental variability. Since the probability distribution of flutter derivatives and critical flutter speed does not seem to obey a standard theoretical model, polynomial chaos expansion is proposed and used to represent the experimental variability.

Reliability analysis on flutter of the long-span Aizhai bridge

  • Liu, Shuqian;Cai, C.S.;Han, Yan;Li, Chunguang
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 2018
  • With the continuous increase of span lengths, modern bridges are becoming much more flexible and more prone to flutter under wind excitations. A reasonable probabilistic flutter analysis of long-span bridges involving random and uncertain variables may have to be taken into consideration. This paper presents a method for estimating the reliability index and failure probability due to flutter, which considers the very important variables including the extreme wind velocity at bridge site, damping ratio, mathematical modeling, and flutter derivatives. The Aizhai Bridge in China is selected as an example to demonstrate the numerical procedure for the flutter reliability analysis. In the presented method, the joint probability density function of wind speed and wind direction at the deck level of the bridge is first established. Then, based on the fundamental theories of structural reliability, the reliability index and failure probability due to flutter of the Aizhai Bridge is investigated by applying the Monte Carlo method and the first order reliability method (FORM). The probabilistic flutter analysis can provide a guideline in the design of long-span bridges and the results show that the structural damping and flutter derivatives have significant effects on the flutter reliability, more accurate and reliable data of which is needed.