• Title/Summary/Keyword: weighted estimate

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Improve the Reliability Measures of Bus Arrival Time Estimation Model (버스도착시간 추정모형의 신뢰도 향상방안 연구)

  • Kim, Jisoo;Park, Bumjin;Roh, Chang-Gyun;Kang, Woneui
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.597-604
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    • 2014
  • In this study, we investigate to show the limitations of current bus arrival time estimation model based on each bus route, and to propose a bus arrival time estimation model based on a bus stop to overcome these limitations. Using the characteristic of bus arrival time calculated on travel time between two bus stops, we develop a model to estimate bus arrival times with the data of all buses traveling the same section regardless of bus route numbers. In the proposed model, an estimated arrival time is calculated by weighted moving average method, and verification between observed value and estimated time is performed on the basis of RMSE. Error was reduced by up to 20% compared to the existing models and the data update period was reduced by more than half that is related to the accuracy of bus arrival time information. We expect to solve the following problems with the suggested method: sudden increase or decrease in arrival time of the bus, the difference of the expected arrival times at the same stop between two or more buses having different route numbers, and impossibility of offering information of a bus if the bus is not operated with the designated schedule.

Estimation of Mega Flood Using Mega Rainfall Scenario (거대강우 시나리오를 이용한 거대홍수량 산정)

  • Han, Daegun;Kim, Deokhwan;Kim, Jungwook;Jung, Jeawon;Lee, Jongso;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, flood due to the consecutive storm events have been occurred and property damage and casualties are in increasing trend. This study calls the consecutively occurred storm events as a mega rainfall scenario and the discharge by the scenario is defined as a mega flood discharge. A mega rainfall scenario was created on the assumption that 100-year frequency rainfall events were consecutively occurred in the Gyeongancheon stream basin. The SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation) model was used to estimate the mega flood discharge using the scenario in the basin. In addition, in order to perform more reasonable runoff analysis, the parameters were estimated using the SCE_UA algorithm. Also, the calibration and verification were performed using the objective functions of the weighted sum of squared of residual(WSSR), which is advantageous for the peak discharge simulation and sum of squared of residual(SSR). As a result, the mega flood discharge due to the continuous occurrence of 100-year frequency rainfall events in the Gyeongan Stream Basin was estimated to be 4,802㎥/s, and the flood discharge due to the 100-year frequency single rainfall event estimated by "the Master Plan for the Gyeongancheon Stream Improvement" (2011) was 3,810㎥/s. Therefore, the mega flood discharge was found to increase about 992㎥/s more than the single flood event. The results of this study can be used as a basic data for Comprehensive Flood Control Plan of the Gyeongan Stream basin.

Comparison of Daily Rainfall Interpolation Techniques and Development of Two Step Technique for Rainfall-Runoff Modeling (강우-유출 모형 적용을 위한 강우 내삽법 비교 및 2단계 일강우 내삽법의 개발)

  • Hwang, Yeon-Sang;Jung, Young-Hun;Lim, Kwang-Suop;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.12
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    • pp.1083-1091
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    • 2010
  • Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. However, widely used estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic variability of daily precipitation field. We compare and contrast the performance of statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins, and propose a two-step process for effective daily precipitation estimation. The methods assessed are: (1) Inverse Distance Weighted Average (IDW); (2) Multiple Linear Regression (MLR); (3) Climatological MLR; and (4) Locally Weighted Polynomial Regression (LWP). In the suggested simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before applying IDW scheme (one of the local scheme) to estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. As the results, the suggested method shows the better performance of daily rainfall interpolation which has spatial differences compared with conventional methods. And this technique can be used for streamflow forecasting and downscaling of atmospheric circulation model effectively.

Estimation of Forest Growing Stock by Combining Annual Forest Inventory Data (연년 산림자원조사 자료를 이용한 임목축적 추정)

  • Yim, Jong Su;Jung, Il Bin;Kim, Jong Chan;Kim, Sung Ho;Ryu, Joo Hyung;Shin, Man Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.101 no.2
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    • pp.213-219
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    • 2012
  • The $5^{th}$ national forest inventory (NFI5) has been reorganized to annual inventory system for providing multi-resources forest statistics at a point in time. The objective of this study is to evaluate statistical estimators for estimating forest growing stock in Chungcheongbuk-Do from annual inventory data. When comparing two estimators; simple random sampling (SRS) and double sampling for post-stratification (DSS), for estimating mean forest growing stock ($m^3/ha$) at each surveyed year, the estimate for DSS in which a population of interest is stratified into three sub-population (forest cover types) was more precise than that for SRS. To combine annual inventory field data, three estimators (Temporally Indifferent Method; TIM, Moving Average; MA, and Weighted Moving Average; WMA) were compared. Even though the estimated mean for TIM and WMA is identical, WMA-DSS is preferred to provide more smaller variance of estimated mean and to adjust for catastrophic events at a surveyed year (so-called "lag bias") by annual inventory data.

Assessment of Ecological Flowrate and Fish Community to Weir Type in Stream (하천에서 보 형태에 따른 어류군집 구조 및 생태유량 평가)

  • Hur, Jun Wook;Jang, Chang Lae;Kim, Kyu Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.339-347
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    • 2017
  • The objectives of this study were to analyze ecological characteristics of fish compositions and estimate the optimal ecological flow using the physical habitat simulation system (PHABSIM) in Wonju stream and Boseong river. We sampled fishes using two gears such as casting net and kicknet to determine fish distribution and also measured flow velocity, water depth, bed material at the point where fish collected. Total number of species and individuals sampled were 20 and 2,104, respectively and dominant species was Zacco platypus (39.7%) and subdominant species was Z. koreanus (RA: 15.8%) in Wonju stream. In Boseong river, collected fishes were 1,638 individuals, 28 species. Dominant and sub-dominant species was Z. platypus (RA: 22.0%) and Microphysogobio yaluensis (RA: 17.2%), respectively. For calculating habitat suitability index (HSI), we selected Z. platypus as representative fish species and analyzed water depth and flow velocity. Water depth and flow velocity were 0.2-0.6 m, 0.1-0.3 m/s, respectively in Wonju stream and 0.3-0.6 m, 0-0.3 m/s, respectively in Boseong river. According to the analysis of ecological flow simulation, optimal flow was 1.1 cms and 0.3 cms in Wonju stream and 0.4cms, 2.2cms in Boseong river at up and down stream respectively. WUA (Weighted Usable Area) was 9.5%, 26.6% in Wonju stream and 34.8%, 53.3% in Boseong river at up and down stream respectively.

Modified AWSSDR method for frequency-dependent reverberation time estimation (주파수 대역별 잔향시간 추정을 위한 변형된 AWSSDR 방식)

  • Min Sik Kim;Hyung Soon Kim
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 2023
  • Reverberation time (T60) is a typical acoustic parameter that provides information about reverberation. Since the impacts of reverberation vary depending on the frequency bands even in the same space, frequency-dependent (FD) T60, which offers detailed insights into the acoustic environments, can be useful. However, most conventional blind T60 estimation methods, which estimate the T60 from speech signals, focus on fullband T60 estimation, and a few blind FDT60 estimation methods commonly show poor performance in the low-frequency bands. This paper introduces a modified approach based on Attentive pooling based Weighted Sum of Spectral Decay Rates (AWSSDR), previously proposed for blind T60 estimation, by extending its target from fullband T60 to FDT60. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms conventional blind FDT60 estimation methods on the acoustic characterization of environments (ACE) challenge evaluation dataset. Notably, it consistently exhibits excellent estimation performance in all frequency bands. This demonstrates that the mechanism of the AWSSDR method is valuable for blind FDT60 estimation because it reflects the FD variations in the impact of reverberation, aggregating information about FDT60 from the speech signal by processing the spectral decay rates associated with the physical properties of reverberation in each frequency band.

Speech Enhancement Based on Modified IMCRA Using Spectral Minima Tracking with Weighted Subband Selection (서브밴드 가중치를 적용한 스펙트럼 최소값 추적을 이용하는 수정된 IMCRA 기반의 음성 향상 기법)

  • Park, Yun-Sik;Park, Gyu-Seok;Lee, Sang-Min
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we propose a novel approach to noise power estimation for speech enhancement in noisy environments. The method based on IMCRA (improved minima controlled recursive averaging) which is widely used in speech enhancement utilizes a rough VAD (voice activity detection) algorithm which excludes speech components during speech periods in order to improves the performance of the noise power estimation by reducing the speech distortion caused by the conventional algorithm based on the minimum power spectrum derived from the noisy speech. However, since the VAD algorithm is not sufficient to distinguish speech from noise at non-stationary noise and low SNRs (signal-to-noise ratios), the speech distortion resulted from the minimum tracking during speech periods still remained. In the proposed method, minimum power estimate obtained by IMCRA is modified by SMT (spectral minima tracking) to reduce the speech distortion derived from the bias of the estimated minimum power. In addition, in order to effectively estimate minimum power by considering the distribution characteristic of the speech and noise spectrum, the presented method combines the minimum estimates provided by IMCRA and SMT depending on the weighting factor based on the subband. Performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated by subjective and objective quality tests under various environments and better results compared with the conventional method are obtained.

Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Rainfall using Copula Model (Copula 모형을 이용한 이변량 강우빈도해석)

  • Joo, Kyung-Won;Shin, Ju-Young;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.8
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    • pp.827-837
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    • 2012
  • The estimation of the rainfall quantile is of great importance in designing hydrologic structures. Conventionally, the rainfall quantile is estimated by univariate frequency analysis with an appropriate probability distribution. There is a limitation in which duration of rainfall is restrictive. To overcome this limitation, bivariate frequency analysis by using 3 copula models is performed in this study. Annual maximum rainfall events in 5 stations are used for frequency analysis and rainfall depth and duration are used as random variables. Gumbel (GUM), generalized logistic (GLO) distributions are applied for rainfall depth and generalized extreme value (GEV), GUM, GLO distributions are applied for rainfall duration. Copula models used in this study are Frank, Joe, and Gumbel-Hougaard models. Maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameter of copula, and the method of probability weighted moments is used to estimate the parameters of marginal distributions. Rainfall quantile from this procedure is compared with various marginal distributions and copula models. As a result, in change of marginal distribution, distribution of duration does not significantly affect on rainfall quantile. There are slight differences depending on the distribution of rainfall depth. In the case which the marginal distribution of rainfall depth is GUM, there is more significantly increasing along the return period than GLO. Comparing with rainfall quantiles from each copula model, Joe and Gumbel-Hougaard models show similar trend while Frank model shows rapidly increasing trend with increment of return period.

Estimate of Genetic Parameters for Egg Yolk Cholesterol Content (난황 Cholesterol함량에 대한 유전적 모수 추정)

  • 홍기창;박응우;정선부
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 1989
  • This study was conducted to estimate genetic parameters for egg yolk cholesterol. Content of egg yok cholesterol was measured for a total of 473 hens of White Leghorn line. Cholesterol values were obtained from tee consecutively laid eggs when hens were 53 weeks of age. The yolk of each egg was weighted and freeze dried. Dried egg yolks were stored at -2$0^{\circ}C$ until analyzed. The results obtained from this study were as follows; 1. Yolk cholesterol content was measured in average $56.00\pm$0.194 mg/g dry yolk. 2. Heritability from the sire component of variance was $0.522\pm$0.215 and from the sire+dam component of variance $0.33\pm$0.209. 3. Estimates of phenotypic correlation between your cholesterol and other factors such as body weight at 20 weeks of age, age at first egg, 40-week total egg number, egg Production rate: 53-week egg weight and 53-week yolk weight were -0.0208, -0.0321, -0.0378, -0.0834, 0.0790 and 0.1624, respectively. And genetic correlation coefficients for each item in the order were -0.5293, 0.7105, -0.4062, -0.0254, 0.2164 and 0.5027, respectively. 4. These results suggest the possibility that egg Yolk cholesterol should be reduced through selecting of sire families. To breed for low egg yolk cholesterol, it makes age at first egg earlier and enhances total egg number so that we can obtain the high rate of egg Production.

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Application of Jackknife Method for Determination of Representative Probability Distribution of Annual Maximum Rainfall (연최대강우량의 대표확률분포형 결정을 위한 Jackknife기법의 적용)

  • Lee, Jae-Joon;Lee, Sang-Won;Kwak, Chang-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.10
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    • pp.857-866
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    • 2009
  • In this study, basic data is consisted annual maximum rainfall at 56 stations that has the rainfall records more than 30years in Korea. The 14 probability distributions which has been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the basic data. The method of moments, method of maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments method are used to estimate the parameters. And 4-tests (chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer von Mises test, probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test) are used to determine the goodness of fit of probability distributions. This study emphasizes the necessity for considering the variability of the estimate of T-year event in hydrologic frequency analysis and proposes a framework for evaluating probability distribution models. The variability (or estimation error) of T-year event is used as a criterion for model evaluation as well as three goodness of fit criteria (SLSC, MLL, and AIC) in the framework. The Jackknife method plays a important role in estimating the variability. For the annual maxima of rainfall at 56 stations, the Gumble distribution is regarded as the best one among probability distribution models with two or three parameters.