• Title/Summary/Keyword: weibull model

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Comparison of Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches through Cases of Exposure Assessment of Child Products (어린이용품 노출평가 연구에서의 결정론적 및 확률론적 방법론 사용실태 분석 및 고찰)

  • Jang, Bo Youn;Jeong, Da-In;Lee, Hunjoo
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.223-232
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

Population Trends and temperature-Dependent Development of Pear Psylla, Cacopsylla pyricola(Foerster) (Homoptera: Psyllidae) (꼬마배나무이(Cacopsylla pyricola(Foerster)) 발생소장 및 온도별 발육기간)

  • 김동순;조명래;전흥용;임명순;이준호
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2000
  • Two Psyllidae species of Cacopsylla pyricola (Foerster) and C. pyrisuga (Foerster)damaging pear trees have been reported in Korea. However, their ecological characteristics and damagepatterns have not been evaluated yet. To establish basic control measures of C. pyricola, field phenology,overwintering ecology, seasonal fluctuation and temperature-dependent development of C. pyricola wereexamined. C. pyricola overwintered under the bark scale of pear trees as winter form adults and theymoved to fruiting twigs from mid-February. Honeydew produced by C. pyricola nymphs and adults asthey feed caused serious black sooty mold on leaves and fruits. The seasonal occurrence of C. pyricolawas different every year. In 1993, characterized by cold temperature and heavy precipitation, C. pyricolapopulation was maintained highly during growing season. However, the population was decreased rapidlyfrom early July in 1994, year of hot and dry weather condition. In 1995, year of average temperature, thedensity of C. pyricola population was decreased during hot months of July and August, and rebuilt up inSeptember and October. The development periods of C. pyricola eggs were 13.33 days at 15"C, 9.32 daysat 20$^{\circ}$C, 7.82 days at 25"C, 6.60 days at 30$^{\circ}$C, and 7.75 days at 35$^{\circ}$C. The development periods ofnymphs were 33.75 days at 15OC, 23.77 days at 20$^{\circ}$C, 15.21 days at 25"C, and 17.40 days at 30$^{\circ}$C. Theirdevelopment periods and mortalities were increased in higher temperatures. The parameters of nonlineardevelopment model, Weibull and linear development models of Cacopsylla pyricola were estimated.models of Cacopsylla pyricola were estimated.

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Test methodology of acceleration life test on feeder cable assembly (Feeder Cable Assembly의 가속수명시험법 개발)

  • Han, Hyun Kak
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.62-68
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    • 2016
  • The feeder cable assembly is an automotive part used for telecommunication. If it malfunctions, the control and safety of the automobile can be put at risk. ALT (Accelerated Life Testing) is a testing process for products in which they are subjected to conditions (stress, strain, temperatures, etc.) in excess of their normal service parameters in an attempt to uncover faults and potential modes of failure in a short amount of time. Failure is caused by defects in the design, process, quality, or application of the part, and these defects are the underlying causes of failure or which initiate a process leading to failure. Thermal shock occurs when a thermal gradient causes different parts of an object to expand by different amounts. Thermal shock testing is performed to determine the ability of parts and components to withstand sudden changes in temperature. In this research, the main causes of failure of the feeder cable assembly were snapping, shorting and electro-pressure resistance failure. Using the Coffin-Manson model for ALT, the normal conditions were from Tmax = $80^{\circ}C$ to Tmin = $-40^{\circ}C$, the accelerated testing conditions were from Tmax = $120^{\circ}C$ to Tmin = $-60^{\circ}C$, the AF (Acceleration Factor) was 2.25 and the testing time was reduced from 1,000 cycles to 444 cycles. Using the Bxlife test, the number of samples was 5, the required life was B0.04%.10years, in the acceleration condition, 747 cycles were obtained. After the thermal shock test under different conditions, the feeder cable assembly was examined by a network analyzer and compared with the Weibull distribution modulus parameter. The results obtained showed good results in acceleration life test mode. For the same reliability rate, the testing time was decreased by a quarter using ALT.

Life assessment of monitoring piezoelectric sensor under high temperature at high-level nuclear waste repository (고준위방사성폐기물 처분장 고온 환경 조건에 대한 모니터링용 피에조 센서의 수명 평가)

  • Changhee Park;Hyun-Joong Hwang;Chang-Ho Hong;Jin-Seop Kim;Gye-Chun Cho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.509-523
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    • 2023
  • The high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository is exposed to complex environmental conditions consisting of high temperature, high humidity, and radiation, resulting in structural deterioration. Therefore, structural health monitoring is essential, and piezo sensors are used to detect cracks and estimate strength. However, since the monitoring sensors installed in the disposal tunnel and disposal container cannot be replaced or removed, the quantitative life of the monitoring sensor and its suitability must be assessed. In this study, the life of a piezo sensor for monitoring was assessed using an accelerated life test (ALT). The failure mode and mechanism of the piezo sensor under high temperature conditions were determined, and temperature stress's influence on the piezo sensor's life was analyzed. ALT was conducted on temperature stress and the relationship between temperature stress and piezo sensor life was suggested. The life of the piezo sensor was assessed using the Weibull probability distribution and the Arrhenius acceleration model. The suggested relationship can be used in multiple stress ALT designs for more precise life assessment.