• Title/Summary/Keyword: water level forecasting

Search Result 120, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Flood Travel Time Analysis using Two-dimensional Hydraulic Model in Yeong-san River Downstream (2차원 수리해석모형을 이용한 영산강 하류부의 홍수파 도달시간 분석)

  • Oh, Ji-Hwan;Jo, Jun-Won;Jang, Suk-Hwan;Choov, Jeong-Ho;Oh, Kyoung-Doo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.446-457
    • /
    • 2018
  • Forecasting of flood wave travel time is very important in terms of river management and operation. Recently, the hydrological environment of has changed due to the construction of multi-function weir in the river. It is necessary to analyze flood wave travel time, including hydraulic structures in the channel. The flood wave travel time according to the discharge and downstream water level operating conditions was analyzed using HEC-RASver5.0.3 which is capable a two-dimentional analysis. This study showed nonlinear characteristics of flood wave travel times due to increase of discharge and operating conditions. The results of this study will be helpful for the operation of multi-function weir as well as the river operation.

Influence of Rainfall observation Network on Daily Dam Inflow using Artificial Neural Networks (강우자료 형태에 따른 인공신경망의 일유입량 예측 정확도 평가)

  • Kim, Seokhyeon;Kim, Kyeung;Hwang, Soonho;Park, Jihoon;Lee, Jaenam;Kang, Moonseong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.61 no.2
    • /
    • pp.63-74
    • /
    • 2019
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of rainfall observation network on daily dam inflow using artificial neural networks(ANNs). Chungju Dam and Soyangriver Dam were selected for the study watershed. Rainfall and dam inflow data were collected as input data for construction of ANNs models. Five ANNs models, represented by Model 1 (In watershed, point rainfall), Model 2 (All in the Thiessen network, point rainfall), Model 3 (Out of watershed in the Thiessen network, point rainfall), Model 1-T (In watershed, area mean rainfall), Model 2-T (All in the Thiessen network, area mean rainfall), were adopted to evaluate the influence of rainfall observation network. As a result of the study, the models that used all station in the Thiessen network performed better than the models that used station only in the watershed or out of the watershed. The models that used point rainfall data performed better than the models that used area mean rainfall. Model 2 achieved the highest level of performance. The model performance for the ANNs model 2 in Chungju dam resulted in the $R^2$ value of 0.94, NSE of 0.94 $NSE_{ln}$ of 0.88 and PBIAS of -0.04 respectively. The model-2 predictions of Soyangriver Dam with the $R^2$ and NSE values greater than 0.94 were reasonably well agreed with the observations. The results of this study are expected to be used as a reference for rainfall data utilization in forecasting dam inflow using artificial neural networks.

Comparison of the flow estimation methods through GIUH rainfall-runoff model for flood warning system on Banseong stream (반성천 홍수경보 시스템을 위한 GIUH기반 한계홍수량 산정기법 비교연구)

  • Seong, Kiyoung;Ahn, Yujin;Lee, Taesam
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.5
    • /
    • pp.347-354
    • /
    • 2021
  • In the past few years, various damages have occurred in the vicinity of rivers due to flooding. In order to alleviate such flood damage, structural and non-structural measures are being established, and one of the important non-structural measures is to establish a flood warning system. In general, in order to establish a flood warning system, the water level of the flood alarm reference point is set, the critical flow corresponding thereto is calculated, and the warning precipitation amount corresponding to the critical flow is calculated through the Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GIUH) rainfall-runoff model. In particular, when calculating the critical flow, various studies have calculated the critical flow through the Manning formula. To compare the adequacy of this, in this study, the critical flow was calculated through the HEC-RAS model and compared with the value obtained from Manning's equation. As a result of the comparison, it was confirmed that the critical flow calculated by the Manning equation adopted excessive alarm precipitation values and lead a very high flow compared to the existing design precipitation. In contrast, the critical flow of HEC-RAS presented an appropriate alarm precipitation value and was found to be appropriate to the annual average alarm standard. From the results of this study, it seems more appropriate to calculate the critical flow through HEC-RAS, rather than through the existing Manning equation, in a situation where various river projects have been conducted resulting that most of the rivers have been surveyed.

A study on the estimation and evaluation of ungauged reservoir inflow for local government's agricultural drought forecasting and warning (지자체 농업가뭄 예·경보를 위한 미계측 저수지의 유입량 추정 및 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Ryel;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Won, Chang-Hee;Lee, Byung-Hyun;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.6
    • /
    • pp.395-405
    • /
    • 2021
  • When issuing forecasts and alerts for agricultural drought, the relevant ministries only rely on the observation data from the reservoirs managed by the Korea Rural Community Corporation, which creates gaps between the drought analysis results at the local (si/gun) governments and the droughts actually experienced by local residents. Closing these gaps requires detailed local geoinformation on reservoirs, which in turn requires the information on reservoirs managed by local governments across Korea. However, installing water level and flow measurement equipment at all of the reservoirs would not be reasonable in terms of operation and cost effectiveness, and an alternate approach is required to efficiently generate information. In light of the above, this study validates and calibrates the parameters of the TANK model for reservoir basins, divided them into groups based on the characteristics of different basins, and applies the grouped parameters to unmeasured local government reservoirs to estimate and assess inflow. The findings show that the average determinant coefficient and the NSE of the group using rice paddies and inclinations are 0.63 and 0.62, respectively, indicating better results compared with the basin area and effective storage factors (determinant coefficient: 0.49, NSE: 0.47). The findings indicate the possibility of utilizing the information regarding unmeasured reservoirs managed by local governments.

Evaluation of Levee Reliability by Applying Monte Carlo Simulation (Monte Carlo 기법에 의한 하천제방의 안정성 평가)

  • Jeon, Min Woo;Kim, Ji Sung;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.26 no.5B
    • /
    • pp.501-509
    • /
    • 2006
  • The safety of levee that depends on the river flood elevation has been regarded as very important keys to build up various flood prevention systems. However, deterministic methods for computation of water surface profile cannot reflect the effect of possible inaccuracies in the input parameters. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology of uncertainty computation of design flood level based on steady flow analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. This study addresses the uncertainty of water surface elevation by Manning's coefficients, design discharges, river cross sections and boundary condition. Monte Carlo simulation with the variations of these parameters is performed to quantify the variations of water surface elevations in a river. The proposed model has been applied to the Kumho-river. The reliability analysis was performed within 38.5 km (95 sections) reach considered the variations of the above-mentioned parameters. Overtopping risks were evaluated by comparing the elevations of the flood condition with the those of the levees. The results show that there is a necessity which will raise the levee elevation between 1 cm and 56 cm at 7 sections. The model can be used for preparing flood risk maps, flood forecasting systems and establishing flood disaster mitigation plans as well as complement of conventional levee design.

A Study on Vector-based Converting Method for Hydrological Application of Rainfall Radar Image (레이더 영상의 수문학적 활용을 위한 벡터 변환방법 연구)

  • Jee, Gye-Hwan;Oh, Kyoung-Doo;An, Won-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.45 no.7
    • /
    • pp.729-741
    • /
    • 2012
  • Among the methods of precipitation data acquisition, a rain gauge station has a distinctive advantage of direct measurement of rainfall itself, but multiple stations should be installed in order to obtain areal precipitation data required for hydrological analysis. On the other hand, a rainfall radar may provide areal distribution of rainfall in real time though it is an indirect measurement of radar echoes on rain drops. Rainfall radars have been shown useful especially for forecasting short-term localized torrential storms that may cause catastrophic flash floods. CAPPI (Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator), which is one of the several types of radar rainfall image data, has been provided on the Internet in real time by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). It is one of the most widely available rainfall data in Korea with fairly high level of confidence as it is produced with bias adjustment and quality control procedures by KMA. The objective of this study is to develop an improved way to extract quantitative rainfall data applicable to even very small watersheds from CAPPI using CIVCOM, which is a new image processing method based on a vector-based scheme proposed in this study rather than raster-based schemes proposed by other researchers. This study shows usefulness of CIVCOM through comparison of rainfall data produced by image processing methods including traditional raster-based schemes and a newly proposed vector-based one.

Establishment of Inundation Probability DB for Forecasting the Farmland Inundation Risk Using Weather Forecast Data (기상예보 기반 농촌유역 침수 위험도 예보를 위한 침수 확률 DB 구축)

  • Kim, Si-Nae;Jun, Sang-Min;Lee, Hyun-Ji;Hwang, Soon-Ho;Choi, Soon-Kun;Kang, Moon-Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.62 no.4
    • /
    • pp.33-43
    • /
    • 2020
  • In order to reduce damage from farmland inundation caused by recent climate change, it is necessary to predict the risk of farmland inundation accurately. Inundation modeling should be performed by considering multiple time distributions of possible rainfalls, as digital forecasts of Korea Meteorological Administration is provided on a six-hour basis. As building multiple inputs and creating inundation models take a lot of time, it is necessary to shorten the forecast time by building a data base (DB) of farmland inundation probability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to establish a DB of farmland inundation probability in accordance with forecasted rainfalls. In this study, historical data of the digital forecasts was collected and used for time division. Inundation modeling was performed 100 times for each rainfall event. Time disaggregation of forecasted rainfall was performed by applying the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which uses consistency of fractal characteristics to six-hour rainfall data. To analyze the inundation of farmland, the river level was simulated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The level of farmland was calculated by applying a simulation technique based on the water balance equation. The inundation probability was calculated by extracting the number of inundation occurrences out of the total number of simulations, and the results were stored in the DB of farmland inundation probability. The results of this study can be used to quickly predict the risk of farmland inundation, and to prepare measures to reduce damage from inundation.

Projecting future hydrological and ecological droughts with the climate and land use scenarios over the Korean peninsula (기후 및 토지이용 변화 시나리오 기반 한반도 미래 수문학적 및 생태학적 가뭄 전망)

  • Lee, Jaehyeong;Kim, Yeonjoo;Chae, Yeora
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.53 no.6
    • /
    • pp.427-436
    • /
    • 2020
  • It is uncertain how global climate change will influence future drought characteristics over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to project the future droughts using climate change and land use change scenarios over the Korean peninsula with the land surface modeling system, i.e., Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 are used as future climate scenarios and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP2, is adopted for the land use scenario. The using Threshold Level Method (TLM), we identify future hydrological and ecological drought events with runoff and Net Primary Productivity (NPP), respectively, and assess drought characteristics of durations and intensities in different scenarios. Results show that the duration of drought is longer over RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future (2031-2050) and RCP8.5-SSP2 (2080-2099) for the far future for hydrological drought. On the other hand, RCP2.6-SSP2 for the far future and RCP8.5-SSP2 for the near future show longer duration for ecological drought. In addition, the drought intensities in both hydrological and ecological drought show different characteristics with the drought duration. The intensity of the hydrological droughts was greatly affected by threshold level methods and RCP2.6-SSP2 for far future shows the severest intensity. However, for ecological drought, the difference of the intensity among the threshold level is not significant and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future show the severest intensity. This study suggests a possible future drought characteristics is in the Korea peninsula using combined climate and land use changes, which will help the community to understand and manage the future drought risks.

Development of a Raster-based Two-dimensional Flood Inundation Model (래스터 기반의 2차원 홍수범람 모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Gi-Ha;Lee, Seung-Soo;Jung, Kwan-Sue
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
    • /
    • v.10 no.6
    • /
    • pp.155-163
    • /
    • 2010
  • The past researches on flood inundation simulation mainly focused on development of numerical models based on unstructured mesh networks to improve model performances. However, despite the accurate simulation results, such models are not suitable for real-time flood inundation forecasting due to a huge computational burden in terms of geographic data processing. In addition, even though various types of vector and raster data are available to be compatible with flood inundation models for post-processes such as flood hazard mapping and flood inundation risk analysis, the unstructured mesh-based models are not effective to fully use such information due to data incommensurability. Therefore, this study aims to develop a raster-based two-dimensional inundation model; it guarantees computational efficiency because of direct application of DEM for flood inundation modeling and also has a good compatibility with various types of raster data, compared to a commercial model such as FLUMEN. We applied the model to simulate the BaekSan levee break in the Nam river during a flood period from August 10 to 13, 2002. The simulation results showed a good agreement with the field-surveyed inundation area and were also very similar with results from the FLUMEN. Moreover, the model provided physically-acceptable velocity vectors with respect to inundating and returning flows due to the difference of water level between channel and lowland.

Design of WSN based Field Server for Local Weather Monitoring (국지기상 모니터링을 위한 WSN 기반 필드서버 제작)

  • An, Seong-Mo;Kim, Jae-Gyeong;Yoo, Jae-Ho;Jung, Sang-Joong;Chung, Wan-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.493-500
    • /
    • 2011
  • Recently, there has been an increase in the number of disaster victims locally due to climate change and a variety of frequently occurring natural disasters. The damage caused by abrupt weather change in local area by typical weather forecasting techniques is very limited and difficult. Recently local area weather monitoring system using wireless sensor network technology has been very actively studied. Thus an IEEE 802.15.4-based weather field server to measure and monitor the local weather changes was designed and developed in this study. The proposed weather field server utilizes a wireless sensor node and weather sensors to collect weather information such as temperature, humidity, illumination, dew point, barometric pressure, and water level. The integrated weather sensor board was designed to respond quickly to weather changes, and provide feedback to the server PC. Each weather information is analyzed in the server PC to establish a program to monitor and analyze the local area or the area of abrupt climate change in order to provide warning signals in case of disaster events in local.