• Title/Summary/Keyword: water inflow prediction

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Prediction of Water-Quality Enhancement Effects of Gates Operation in the West-Nakdong River Using RMA2/RMA4 Models (RMA2/RMA4 모형을 이용한 서낙동간 수문연계운영의 수질개선 효과 예측)

  • Lee, Keum-Chan;Yoon, Young-Sam;Lee, Nam-Joo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.971-981
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    • 2009
  • An objective of this study is as follows: 1) performing sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of RMA2 and RMA4 models for the West-Nakdong River, 2) drawing up alternatives of gates-operation for water-quality enhancement, and 3) quantitative evaluation of methodology of 'flow-restoration by gates-operation' among 'Comprehensive Plan Improving Water-Quality in the West-Nakdong River(WNR)' with the target water-quality(BOD at Nakbon-N point: below 4.3 mg/L). The parameters for the RMA2 (depth-averaged two-dimensional flow model) and RMA4 (depth-averaged two-dimensional water-quality model) were determined by sensitivity analysis. Result of parameter estimation for RMA2 and RMA4 models is $1,000\;Pa{\cdot}s$ of the eddy viscosity, 20 of the Peclet number, 0.025 of the Manning coefficient, and $1.0\;m^2/s$ of the diffusion coefficient. We have evaluated the effects of water-quality enhancement of the selected alternatives by numerical simulation technique with the models under the steady-state flow condition and the time-variant transport condition. Because of no-resuspension from river bottom and considering BOD as conservative matter, these simulation results slightly differ from real phenomena. In the case of $50\;m^3/s$ of Daejeo-gate inflow, two-dimensional flow pn results result represents that small velocity occurs in the Pyungkang Stream and no flow in the Maekdo River. In the WNR, there occurs the most rapid flow near timhae-bridge. In the WNR, changes of water-quality for the four selected simulation cases(6, 10, 30, $50\;m^3/s$ of the Daejeo-gate inflow) were predicted. Since the Daejeo-Gate and the Noksan-Gate can be opened up to 7 days, it would be found that sustainable inflow of $30\;m^3/s$ at the Daejeo-gate makes BOD in the WNR to be under the target of water-quality.

Identification of yearly variation in Hwacheon dam inflow using trend analysis and hydrological sensitivity method (경향성 분석과 수문학적 민감도 기법을 이용한 화천댐 유입량의 연별 변동량 규명)

  • Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.425-438
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    • 2018
  • Existing studies that analyze the causes and effects of water circulation use mostly rainfall - runoff models, which requires much effort in model development, calibration and verification. In this study, hydrological sensitivity analysis which can separate quantitatively the impacts by natural factors and anthropogenic factor was applied to the Hwacheon dam upper basin from 1967 to 2017. As a result of using various variable change point detection methods, 1999 was detected as a statistically significant change point. Especially, based on the hydrological sensitivity analysis using 5 Budyko based functions, it was estimated that the average inflow reduction amount by Imnam dam construction was $1.890\;billion\;m^3/year$. This results in this study was slightly larger than the those by existing researchers due to increase of rainfall and decrease of Hwacheon dam inflow. In future, it was suggested that effective water management measures were needed to resolve theses problems. Especially, it can be suggested that the monthly or seasonal analysis should be performed and also the prediction of discharge for future climate change should be considered to establish resonable measures.

Water Quality Modeling for Intake Station by 2-dimensional Advection-Dispersion Model (2차원 이송-확산 모형을 이용한 취수장 유입 수질 예측)

  • Kim, Jae-Dong;Kim, Ji-Hoon;Kim, Young-Do;Song, Chang-Geun;Seo, Il-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.667-679
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    • 2011
  • In this study, the influences of pollutant from Dae-po Stream and So-gam Stream located at the downstream of Nak-dong River on the water quality at Mul-geum water intake station were analyzed using RAMS model. Field measurements of velocity by ADCP, and water quality distribution of BOD and TP by water sampling were carried out to present the input and verification data for numerical simulations. The comparison between RAM2 and ADCP measurement, which aimed for the analysis of 2-D velocity distribution around Mul-geum water intake station showed that two results matched well along the spanwise direction. The prediction of pollutant concentration by RAM4 agreed fairly well with the measured data except for the points nearby right banks in the vicinity of tributary pollutant source. Flushing effect by the increase of mainstream discharge in Nak-dong River was analyzed to provide the damage mitigation in preparation for the accidental water pollution. With increasing mainstream discharge, high velocity and increased water quantity induced increasing dilution effect, thereby decreasing the inflow pollutant concentration rapidly.

Comparisons of RDII Predictions Using the RTK-based and Regression Methods (RTK 방법 및 회귀분석 방법을 이용한 RDII 예측 결과 비교)

  • Kim, Jungruyl;Lee, Jaehyun;Oh, Jeill
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.179-185
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the RDII predictions were compared using two methodologies, i.e., the RTK-based and regression methods. Long-term (1/1/2011~12/31/2011) monitoring data, which consists of 10-min interval streamflow and the amount of precipitation, were collected at the domestic study area (1.36 km2 located in H county), and used for the construction of the RDII prediction models. The RTK method employs super position of tri-triangles, and each triangle (called, unit hydrograph) is defined by three parameters (i.e., R, T and K) determined/optimized using Genetic Algorithm (GA). In regression method, the MovingAverage (MA) filtering was used for data processing. Accuracies of RDII predictions from these two approaches were evaluated by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE) values from each model, in which the values were calculated to 320.613 (RTK method) and 420.653 (regression method), respectively. As a results, the RTK method was found to be more suitable for RDII prediction during extreme rainfall event, than the regression method.

IMPROVING THE ESP ACCURACY WITH COMBINATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS

  • Yu, Seung-Oh;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2004
  • Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using forecasts from just a single method to improve forecast accuracy. This paper describes the development and use of a monthly inflow forecast model based on an optimal linear combination (OLC) of forecasts derived from naive, persistence, and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts. Using the cross-validation technique, the OLC model made 1-month ahead probabilistic forecasts for the Chungju multi-purpose dam inflows for 15 years. For most of the verification months, the skill associated with the OLC forecast was superior to those drawn from the individual forecast techniques. Therefore this study demonstrates that OLC can improve the accuracy of the ESP forecast, especially during the dry season. This study also examined the value of the OLC forecasts in reservoir operations. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) derived the optimal operating policy for the Chungju multi-purpose dam operation and the derived policy was simulated using the 15-year observed inflows. The simulation results showed the SDP model that updated its probability from the new OLC forecast provided more efficient operation decisions than the conventional SDP model.

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Prediction of sediment flow to Pleikrong reservoir due to the impact of climate change

  • Xuan Khanh Do;ThuNgaLe;ThuHienNguyen
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.38-38
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    • 2023
  • Pleikrong reservoir with a concrete gravity dam that impound more than 1 billion cubic meter storage volume is one of the largest reservoir in Central Highland of Vietnam. Sedimentation is a major problem in this area and it becomes more severe due to the effect of climate change. Over time, it gradually reduces the reservoir storage capacity affecting to the reliability of water and power supply. This study aims to integrate the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with 14 bias-corrected GCM/RCM models under two emissions scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 to estimate sediment inflow to Pleikrong reservoir in the long term period. The result indicated that the simulated total amount of sediment deposited in the reservoir from 2010 to 2018 was approximately 39 mil m3 which is a 17% underestimate compared with the observed value of 47 mil m3. The results also show the reduction in reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation ranges from 25% to 62% by 2050, depending on the different climate change models. The reservoir reduced storage volume's rate in considering the impact of climate change is much faster than in the case of no climate change. The outcomes of this study will be helpful for a sustainable and climate-resilient plan of sediment management for the Pleikrongreservoir.

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Prediction of Salinity Changes for Seawater Inflow and Rainfall Runoff in Yongwon Channel (해수유입과 강우유출 영향에 따른 용원수로의 염분도 변화 예측)

  • Choo, Min Ho;Kim, Young Do;Jeong, Weon Mu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2014
  • In this study, EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was used to simulate the salinity distribution for sea water inflow and rainfall runoff. The flowrate was given to the boundary conditions, which can be calculated by areal-specific flowrate method from the measured flowrate of the representative outfall. The boundary condition of the water elevation can be obtained from the hourly tidal elevation. The flowrate from the outfall can be calculated using the condition of the 245 mm raifall. The simulation results showed that at Sites 1~2 and the Mangsan island (Site 4) the salinity becomes 0 ppt after the rainfall. However, the salinity is 30 ppt when there is no rainfall. Time series of the salinity changes were compared with the measured data from January 1 to December 31, 2010 at the four sites (Site 2~5) of Yongwon channel. Lower salinities are shown at the inner sites of Yongwon channel (Site 1~4) and the sites of Songjeong river (Site 7~8). The intensive investigation near the Mangsan island showed that the changes of salinity were 21.9~28.8 ppt after the rainfall of 17 mm and those of the salinity were 2.33~8.05 ppt after the cumulative rainfall of 160.5 mm. This means that the sea water circulation is blocked in Yongwon channel, and the salinity becomes lower rapidly after the heavy rain.

Study on the Short-Term Rainfall and their Dam Inflow Application (단기 예측강우와 댐 유입량 예측 적용성에 관한 연구)

  • Byun, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Hoon;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.1063-1067
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    • 2008
  • 최근 국지적 집중호우로 인한 인명과 재산피해가 증가하고 있는 실정이며 이러한 피해를 경감하기 위한 하나의 방책으로써 홍수예경보 시스템 구축에 관한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 기존의 홍수예보 시스템은 강우의 실제 관측치를 모형의 입력자료로 하여 홍수유출을 계산함으로 인해 예보시간이 촉박하였다. 실시간 강우를 이용하여 유출계산을 수행하고 그 결과가 위험하다고 판단될 때 홍수예경보를 하므로 집중호우와 같은 악기상 조건에서는 적용에 한계가 있다. 따라서 정확한 기상예보를 활용한 기상-수자원 연계기법을 개발하여 홍수예경보 시스템에 적용한다면 악기상 감시예측기술의 향상과 더불어 재해의 방지차원에서 매우 유용한 대책이 될 것이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 단기 예측강우의 국내유역 적용성 여부를 검토하기 위해 30km의 공간 해상도를 가진 단기지역예보모델인 RDAPS(Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) 강수자료를 활용하여 기상학적 및 수문학적 정확도를 분석하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 예측강수의 높은 활용성이 기대되는 실제 한강수계의 주요 댐 지점에 HEC-1 모형을 이용하여 댐 유입량을 산정하고 그 적용성을 평가하고자 한다.

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Numerical Prediction of Contaminant Dispersion within the Laminar Flow Field using FDM (FDM을 이용한 층유유동장내에서 오염물질확산에 관한 연구)

  • 김양술
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 1995
  • A simulation of contaminant dispersion in a water reservoir has been done using 2-D finite difference method(FDM). The steady state velocity field of the reservoir was computed using stream function-vorticity formulation of Wavier-Stokes equation and continuity equation. Based on the computed steady state velocity field, the transient convective diffusion equation of the contaminant dispersion was computed. For the 1m$\times$1m reservoir model with inlet and outlet attached, it was shown that the center of circulation located toward right. For the numerical values of v =0.01($\textrm{cm}^2$/s) and D=0.6($\textrm{cm}^2$/s) and the flow of 50($\textrm{cm}^3$/s ), it was determined that the outflow had to be shut down in 18 seconds to prevent from severe pollution. Also the required time was computed to be 6 seconds for the inflow of 100 ($\textrm{cm}^3$/s). The result of this study is considered, hopefully, to be useful for the design of the water reservoir systems that are the subjects to various contamination.

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Two-dimensional Numerical Modeling of Water Quality Variation by Gates Operation in the Seonakdong River (수문운영에 따른 서낙동강 수질변화에 관한 이차원 수치모의)

  • Lee, Namjoo;Kim, Young Do;Kwon, Jae Hyun;Shin, Chan Ki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2007
  • This study has used RMA2 model and RMA4 model, which are depth-averaged two-dimensional flow and water-quality prediction models, to analyze the variation of the water-quality by the gates operation in the Seonakdong River. Sensitivity analysis is performed to get the Manning coefficient and the coefficient of eddy viscosity for RMA2 model, and to get the diffusion coefficient for RMA4 model. Since the numerical simulation using RMA2 and RMA4 models did not consider tributary pollutant load except for that of Joman River, it could make a little difference from the natural phenomenon. Nevertheless, the numerical simulation shows that the discharge of $30m^3/s$, which is the continuous inflow from the Daedong-gate, can make it possible to achieve the target water-quality (BOD 4.3mg/L) of Nakbon-N watershed about 10 days later if the Daejeo-gate could remain opened in connection with the Noksan-gate operation.