• Title/Summary/Keyword: water inflow prediction

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Numerical Modeling of Tide and Tidal Current in the Kangjin Bay, South Sea, Korea

  • Ro, Young-Jae;Jun, Woong-Sik;Jung, Kwang-Young;Eom, Hyun-Min
    • Ocean Science Journal
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.153-163
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    • 2007
  • This study is based on a series of numerical modeling experiments to understand the tidal circulation in the Kangjin Bay (KB). The tidal circulation in the KB is mostly controlled by the inflow from two channels, Noryang and Daebang which introduce the open ocean water into the northern part of the KB with relatively strong tidal current, while in the southern part of the KB, shallowest region of the entire study area, weak tidal current prevails. The model prediction of the sea level agrees with observed records at skill scores exceeding 90 % in terms of the four major tidal constituents (M2, S2, K1, O1). However, the skill scores for the tidal current show relatively lower values of 87, 99, 59, 23 for the semi-major axes of the constituents, respectively. The tidal ellipse parameters in the KB are such that the semi-major axes of the ellipse for M2 range from 1.7 to 38.5 cm/s and those for S2 range from 0.5 to 14.4 cm/s. The orientations of the major-axes show parallel with the local isobath. The eccentricity values at various grid points of ellipses for M2 and S2 are very low with 0.2 and 0.06 on the average, respectively illustrating that the tidal current in the KB is strongly rectilinear. The magnitude of the tidal residual current speed in the KB is on the order of a few cm/s and its distribution pattern is very complex. One of the most prominent features is found to be the counter-clockwise eddy recirculation cell at the mouth of the Daebang Channel.

Nominal Wake Measurement for KVLCC2 Model Ship in Regular Head Waves at Fully Loaded Condition (선수 규칙파 중 만재상태의 KVLCC2 모형선 공칭반류 계측)

  • Kim, Ho;Jang, Jinho;Hwang, Seunghyun;Kim, Myoung-Soo;Hayashi, Yoshiki;Toda, Yasuyuki
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.371-379
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    • 2016
  • In the ship design process, ship motion and propulsion performance in sea waves became very important issues. Especially, prediction of ship propulsion performance during real operation is an important challenge to ship owners for economic operation in terms of fuel consumption and route-time evaluation. Therefore, it should be considered in the early design stages of the ship. It is thought that the averaged value and fluctuation of effective inflow velocity to the propeller have a great effect on the propulsion performance in waves. However, even for the nominal velocity distribution, very few results have been presented due to some technical difficulties in experiments. In this study, flow measurements near the propeller plane using a stereo PIV system were performed. Phase-averaged flow fields on the propeller plane of a KVLCC2 model ship in waves were measured in the towing tank by using the stereo PIV system and a phase synchronizer with heave motion. The experiment was carried out at fully loaded condition with making surge, heave and pitch motions free at a forward speed corresponding to Fr=0.142 (Re=2.55×106) in various head waves and calm water condition. The phase averaged nominal velocity fields obtained from the measurements are discussed with respect to effects of wave orbital velocity and ship motion. The low velocity region is affected by pressure gradient and ship motion.

An Experimental Study on the Characteristics of Propeller and Rudder in Oblique Towing Conditions (사항상태(斜航狀態)에서 프로펠러와 타(舵)의 특성(特性)에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • S.K. Lee;H.S. Kim;S.J. Kim;M.J. Song;S.H. Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.66-72
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    • 1994
  • For the reliable prediction of maneuverability of a ship, lots of captive model tests have been carried out for over 10 years. But the parameters appearing in the mathematical model are so versatile and showing complex characteristics, and it is still hard to establish the useful formulae that we can adopt directly in the design stage. In this paper, the most important parameters in the mathematical model. i.e.($1-\omega_P$) the effective wake fraction at propeller, and $\delta_R(\beta_R)$), the effective rudder inflow angles are investigated by the captive model tests at the circulating water channel. The model is tested at designed speed and at low speed, and the drafts at both full load and ballast load conditions are taken. Propeller thrusts and rudder normal forces are measured at the given drift angle and propeller revolution. These forces are used for the analysis of the effective flow velocity or flow direction, to the propeller or rudder.

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A Prediction of Thermal Conductivity for Compacted Bentonite Buffer in the High-level Radioactive Waste Repository (고준위폐기물 처분시설의 압축 벤토나이트 완충재의 열전도도 추정)

  • Yoon, Seok;Lee, Min-Soo;Kim, Geon-Young;Lee, Seung-Rae;Kim, Min-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2017
  • A geological repository has been considered one of the most adequate options for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. A geological repository will be constructed in a host rock at a depth of 500~1,000 meters below the ground surface. The geological repository system consists of a disposal canister with packed spent fuel, buffer material, backfill material, and intact rock. The buffer is very important to assure the disposal safety of high-level radioactive waste. It can restrain the release of radionuclide and protect the canister from the inflow of groundwater. High temperature in a disposal canister is released into the surrounding buffer material, and thus the thermal transfer behavior of the buffer material is very important to analyze the entire disposal safety. Therefore, this paper presents a thermal conductivity prediction model for the Kyungju compacted bentonite buffer material which is the only bentonite produced in Korea. Thermal conductivity of Kyungju bentonite was measured using a hot wire method according to various water contents and dry densities. With 39 data obtained by the hot wire method, a regression model to predict the thermal conductivity of Kyungju bentonite was suggested.

Coupling Detection in Sea Ice of Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea: Information Entropy Approach (베링해 해빙 상태와 척치해 해빙 변화 간의 연관성 분석: 정보 엔트로피 접근)

  • Oh, Mingi;Kim, Hyun-cheol
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_2
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    • pp.1229-1238
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    • 2018
  • We examined if a state of sea-ice in Bering Sea acts as a prelude of variation in that of Chukchi Sea by using satellites-based Arctic sea-ice concentration time series. Datasets consist of monthly values of sea-ice concentration during 36 years (1982-2017). Time series analysis armed with Transfer entropy is performed to describe how sea-ice data in Chukchi Sea is affected by that in Bering Sea, and to explain the relationship. The transfer entropy is a measure which identifies a nonlinear coupling between two random variables or signals and estimates causality using modification of time delay. We verified this measure checked a nonlinear coupling for simulated signals. With sea-ice concentration datasets, we found that sea-ice in Bering Sea is influenced by that in Chukchi Sea 3, 5, 6 months ago through the transfer entropy measure suitable for nonlinear system. Particularly, when a sea-ice concentration of Bering Sea has a local minimum, sea ice concentration around Chukchi Sea tends to decline 5 months later with about 70% chance. This finding is considered to be a process that inflow of Pacific water through Bering strait reduces sea-ice in Chukchi Sea after lowering the concentration of sea-ice in Bering Sea. This approach based on information theory will continue to investigate a timing and time scale of interesting patterns, and thus, a coupling inherent in sea-ice concentration of two remote areas will be verified by studying ocean-atmosphere patterns or events in the period.

Evaluation of a Thermal Conductivity Prediction Model for Compacted Clay Based on a Machine Learning Method (기계학습법을 통한 압축 벤토나이트의 열전도도 추정 모델 평가)

  • Yoon, Seok;Bang, Hyun-Tae;Kim, Geon-Young;Jeon, Haemin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.123-131
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    • 2021
  • The buffer is a key component of an engineered barrier system that safeguards the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Buffers are located between disposal canisters and host rock, and they can restrain the release of radionuclides and protect canisters from the inflow of ground water. Since considerable heat is released from a disposal canister to the surrounding buffer, the thermal conductivity of the buffer is a very important parameter in the entire disposal safety. For this reason, a lot of research has been conducted on thermal conductivity prediction models that consider various factors. In this study, the thermal conductivity of a buffer is estimated using the machine learning methods of: linear regression, decision tree, support vector machine (SVM), ensemble, Gaussian process regression (GPR), neural network, deep belief network, and genetic programming. In the results, the machine learning methods such as ensemble, genetic programming, SVM with cubic parameter, and GPR showed better performance compared with the regression model, with the ensemble with XGBoost and Gaussian process regression models showing best performance.

Review of applicability of Turbidity-SS relationship in hyperspectral imaging-based turbid water monitoring (초분광영상 기반 탁수 모니터링에서의 탁도-SS 관계식 적용성 검토)

  • Kim, Jongmin;Kim, Gwang Soo;Kwon, Siyoon;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.919-928
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    • 2023
  • Rainfall characteristics in Korea are concentrated during the summer flood season. In particular, when a large amount of turbid water flows into the dam due to the increasing trend of concentrated rainfall due to abnormal rainfall and abnormal weather conditions, prolonged turbid water phenomenon occurs due to the overturning phenomenon. Much research is being conducted on turbid water prediction to solve these problems. To predict turbid water, turbid water data from the upstream inflow is required, but spatial and temporal data resolution is currently insufficient. To improve temporal resolution, the development of the Turbidity-SS conversion equation is necessary, and to improve spatial resolution, multi-item water quality measurement instrument (YSI), Laser In-Situ Scattering and Transmissometry (LISST), and hyperspectral sensors are needed. Sensor-based measurement can improve the spatial resolution of turbid water by measuring line and surface unit data. In addition, in the case of LISST-200X, it is possible to collect data on particle size, etc., so it can be used in the Turbidity-SS conversion equation for fraction (Clay: Silt: Sand). In addition, among recent remote sensing methods, the spatial distribution of turbid water can be presented when using UAVs with higher spatial and temporal resolutions than other payloads and hyperspectral sensors with high spectral and radiometric resolutions. Therefore, in this study, the Turbidity-SS conversion equation was calculated according to the fraction through laboratory analysis using LISST-200X and YSI-EXO, and sensor-based field measurements including UAV (Matrice 600) and hyperspectral sensor (microHSI 410 SHARK) were used. Through this, the spatial distribution of turbidity and suspended sediment concentration, and the turbidity calculated using the Turbidity-SS conversion equation based on the measured suspended sediment concentration, was presented. Through this, we attempted to review the applicability of the Turbidity-SS conversion equation and understand the current status of turbid water occurrence.

Daily Reservoir Inflow Prediction using Quantitative Precipitation Model (강수진단모형을 이용한 실시간 저수지 일유입량 예측)

  • Kang, Boo-Sik;Kang, Tae-Ho;Oh, Jai-Ho;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.291-295
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    • 2007
  • 강수진단모형을 이용하여 저수지 이수운영을 위한 실시간 유량예측기법을 개발하였다. 강수진단모형은 현재 기상청 현업에서 수행중인 강우수치예보를 기반으로 상세 지역의 지형 효과에 의한 강수를 예측하는 정량강수예측모형(QPM; Quantitative Precipitation Model)으로서 부경대학교 환경대기과학과에서 개발된 모형이다. QPM은 중규모 예측 모형으로부터 계산된 수평 바람, 고도, 기온, 강우 강도, 그리고 상대습도 등의 예측 자료를 이용하고, 소규모 상세지형 효과를 고려함으로써 중규모 예측 모형에서 생산된 강수량 예측 값을 상세 지역의 지형을 고려한 강수량 예측 값으로 재구성하여 결과적으로 3km 간격의 상세지역 강우산출과 지형에 따른 강수량의 분포 파악이 용이할 뿐만 아니라 계산 효율성을 개선된 모형이다. QPM 검증을 위하여 기상학적 평가와 수문학적 평가를 수행하였다. 호우 사례별 일강수량의 시공간 분포로 부터, QPM을 활용한 시스템에 의한 예측결과가 원시자료 RDAPS 보다 고해상도의 예측 및 지형효과의 반영도가 높았으며, AWS의 관측자료와 비교하여 보다 높은 예측성을 보여 주었다. 대상기간인 2006년 1월 1일부터 6월 20일까지 관측강우는 총 391.5mm 였으며 RQPM은 실적강우에 비하여 119.5mm 정도 과소산정하고 있으나 분위사상과정을 거치게 되면 351.7mm로서 실적강우에 불과 10.2% 못미치고 있다. 이는 고무적인 결과로 볼 수 있으며 현업에서의 활용성이 기대되는 수준이라 볼 수 있다. 강우-유출모의를 위한 QPM신뢰도를 높이기 위하여 분위사상법(Quantile Mapping)을 이용하여 QPM모의에 존재할 수 있는 계통오차에 대한 추가적인 보정을 수행하였다. 수문학적 평가를 위하여는 장기연속유출모형인 SSARR모형을 기반으로 개발된 RRFS(Rainfall-Runoff Forecast System)을 이용하여 2006년 1월${\sim}$9월까지의 용담댐 유입량에 대하여 모의예측결과와 관측유입량 비교를 통한 검증을 수행하였다. 위 기간중 예측유입량의 RMSE(Root Mean Squared Error), COE(Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency), MAE(Mean Absolute Error), $R^2$값은 각각 7.50, 0.68, 2.59, 0.69 값을 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 QPM에 의한 예측성의 향상 및 구축된 시스템에 의한 일강수량의 장기예측 가능성을 확인하였고, 향후 시스템을 현업에 활용하기 위해서 생산된 예측자료의 보다 장기적인 검증을 통한 시스템의 안정화가 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

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Water quality prediction of inflow of the Yongdam Dam basin and its reservoir using SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 models in series to climate change scenarios (SWAT 및 CE-QUAL-W2 모델을 연계 활용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 용담댐 유입수 및 호내 수질 변화 예측)

  • Park, Jongtae;Jang, Yujin;Seo, Dongil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.10
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    • pp.703-714
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    • 2017
  • This paper analyzes the impact of two climate change scenarios on flow rate and water quality of the Yongdam Dam and its basin using CE-QUAL-W2 and SWAT, respectively. Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios by IPCC, simulations were performed for 2016~2095, and the results were rearranged into three separate periods; 2016~2035, 2036~2065 and 2066~2095. Also, the result of each year was divided as dry season (May~Oct) and wet season (Nov~Apr) to account for rainfall effect. For total simulation period, arithmetic average of flow rate and TSS (Total Suspended Solid) and TP (Total Phosphorus) were greater for RCP 4.5 than those of RCP 8.5, whereas TN (Total Nitrogen) showed contrary results. However, when averaged within three periods and rainfall conditions the tendencies were different from each other. As the scenarios went on, the number of rainfall days has decreased and the rainfall intensities have increased. These resulted in waste load discharge from the basin being decreased during the dry period and it being increased in the wet period. The results of SWAT model were used as boundary conditions of CE-QUAL-W2 model to predict water level and water quality changes in the Yongdam Dam. TSS and TP tend to increase during summer periods when rainfalls are higher, while TN shows the opposite pattern due to its weak absorption to particulate materials. Therefore, the climate change impact must be carefully analyzed when temporal and spatial conditions of study area are considered, and water quantity and water quality management alternatives must be case specific.

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.