• Title/Summary/Keyword: vulnerability prediction model

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An Interpretable Log Anomaly System Using Bayesian Probability and Closed Sequence Pattern Mining (베이지안 확률 및 폐쇄 순차패턴 마이닝 방식을 이용한 설명가능한 로그 이상탐지 시스템)

  • Yun, Jiyoung;Shin, Gun-Yoon;Kim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Sang-Soo;Han, Myung-Mook
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2021
  • With the development of the Internet and personal computers, various and complex attacks begin to emerge. As the attacks become more complex, signature-based detection become difficult. It leads to the research on behavior-based log anomaly detection. Recent work utilizes deep learning to learn the order and it shows good performance. Despite its good performance, it does not provide any explanation for prediction. The lack of explanation can occur difficulty of finding contamination of data or the vulnerability of the model itself. As a result, the users lose their reliability of the model. To address this problem, this work proposes an explainable log anomaly detection system. In this study, log parsing is the first to proceed. Afterward, sequential rules are extracted by Bayesian posterior probability. As a result, the "If condition then results, post-probability" type rule set is extracted. If the sample is matched to the ruleset, it is normal, otherwise, it is an anomaly. We utilize HDFS datasets for the experiment, resulting in F1score 92.7% in test dataset.

Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change (기후변화에 의한 눈잣나무의 서식지 분포 예측)

  • Park, Hyun-Chul;Lee, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Gwan-Gyu
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.379-392
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    • 2014
  • This study was performed to predict the future climate envelope of Pinus pumila, a subalpine plant and a Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species (CBIS) of Korea. P. pumila is distributed at Mt. seorak in South Korea. Suitable habitat were predicted under two alternative RCPscenarios (IPCC AR5). The SDM used for future prediction was a Maxent model, and the total number of environmental variables for Maxent was 8. It was found that the distribution range of P. pumila in the South Korean was $38^{\circ}7^{\prime}8^{{\prime}{\prime}}N{\sim}38^{\circ}7^{\prime}14^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$ and $128^{\circ}28^{\prime}2^{{\prime}{\prime}}E{\sim}128^{\circ}27^{\prime}38^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$ and 1,586m~1,688m in altitude. The variables that contribute the most to define the climate envelope are altitude. Climate envelope simulation accuracy was evaluated using the ROC's AUC. The P. pumila model's 5-cv AUC was found to be 0.99966. which showed that model accuracy was very high. Under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate envelope for P. pumila is predicted to decrease in South Korea. According to the results of the maxent model has been applied in the current climate, suitable habitat is $790.78km^2$. The suitable habitats, are distributed in the region of over 1,400m. Further, in comparison with the suitable habitat of applying RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 suitable habitat current, reduction of area RCP8.5 was greater than RCP4.5. Thus, climate change will affect the distribution of P. pumila. Therefore, governmental measures to conserve this species will be necessary. Additionally, for CBIS vulnerability analysis and studies using sampling techniques to monitor areas based on the outcomes of this study, future study designs should incorporate the use of climatic predictions derived from multiple GCMs, especially GCMs that were not the one used in this study. Furthermore, if environmental variables directly relevant to CBIS distribution other than climate variables, such as the Bioclim parameters, are ever identified, more accurate prediction than in this study will be possible.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Deep Neural Network and Convolutional Neural Network (Deep Neural Network와 Convolutional Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 취약성 매핑)

  • Gong, Sung-Hyun;Baek, Won-Kyung;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_2
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    • pp.1723-1735
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    • 2022
  • Landslides are one of the most prevalent natural disasters, threating both humans and property. Also landslides can cause damage at the national level, so effective prediction and prevention are essential. Research to produce a landslide susceptibility map with high accuracy is steadily being conducted, and various models have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Pixel-based machine learning models such as frequency ratio models, logistic regression models, ensembles models, and Artificial Neural Networks have been mainly applied. Recent studies have shown that the kernel-based convolutional neural network (CNN) technique is effective and that the spatial characteristics of input data have a significant effect on the accuracy of landslide susceptibility mapping. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to analyze landslide vulnerability using a pixel-based deep neural network model and a patch-based convolutional neural network model. The research area was set up in Gangwon-do, including Inje, Gangneung, and Pyeongchang, where landslides occurred frequently and damaged. Landslide-related factors include slope, curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic position index (TPI), timber diameter, timber age, lithology, land use, soil depth, soil parent material, lineament density, fault density, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) were used. Landslide-related factors were built into a spatial database through data preprocessing, and landslide susceptibility map was predicted using deep neural network (DNN) and CNN models. The model and landslide susceptibility map were verified through average precision (AP) and root mean square errors (RMSE), and as a result of the verification, the patch-based CNN model showed 3.4% improved performance compared to the pixel-based DNN model. The results of this study can be used to predict landslides and are expected to serve as a scientific basis for establishing land use policies and landslide management policies.

A Study of Life Safety Index Model based on AHP and Utilization of Service (AHP 기반의 생활안전지수 모델 및 서비스 활용방안 연구)

  • Oh, Hye-Su;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Jeong, Jong-Woon;Jang, Jae-Min;Yang, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.864-881
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims is to provide a total care solution preventing disaster based on Big Data and AI technology and to service safety considered by individual situations and various risk characteristics. The purpose is to suggest a method that customized comprehensive index services to prevent and respond to safety accidents for calculating the living safety index that quantitatively represent individual safety levels in relation to daily life safety. Method: In this study, we use method of mixing AHP(Analysis Hierarchy Process) and Likert Scale that extracted from consensus formation model of the expert group. We organize evaluation items that can evaluate life safety prevention services into risk indicators, vulnerability indicators, and prevention indicators. And We made up AHP hierarchical structure according to the AHP decision methodology and proposed a method to calculate relative weights between evaluation criteria through pairwise comparison of each level item. In addition, in consideration of the expansion of life safety prevention services in the future, the Likert scale is used instead of the AHP pair comparison and the weights between individual services are calculated. Result: We obtain result that is weights for life safety prevention services and reflected them in the individual risk index calculated through the artificial intelligence prediction model of life safety prevention services, so the comprehensive index was calculated. Conclusion: In order to apply the implemented model, a test environment consisting of a life safety prevention service app and platform was built, and the efficacy of the function was evaluated based on the user scenario. Through this, the life safety index presented in this study was confirmed to support the golden time for diagnosis, response and prevention of safety risks by comprehensively indication the user's current safety level.

Prediction of Acer pictum subsp. mono Distribution using Bioclimatic Predictor Based on SSP Scenario Detailed Data (SSP 시나리오 상세화 자료 기반 생태기후지수를 활용한 고로쇠나무 분포 예측)

  • Kim, Whee-Moon;Kim, Chaeyoung;Cho, Jaepil;Hur, Jina;Song, Wonkyong
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 2022
  • Climate change is a key factor that greatly influences changes in the biological seasons and geographical distribution of species. In the ecological field, the BioClimatic predictor (BioClim), which is most related to the physiological characteristics of organisms, is used for vulnerability assessment. However, BioClim values are not provided other than the future period climate average values for each GCM for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenario. In this study, BioClim data suitable for domestic conditions was produced using 1 km resolution SSPs scenario detailed data produced by Rural Development Administration, and based on the data, a species distribution model was applied to mainly grow in southern, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Gangwon-do and humid regions. Appropriate habitat distributions were predicted every 30 years for the base years (1981 - 2010) and future years (2011 - 2100) of the Acer pictum subsp. mono. Acer pictum subsp. mono appearance data were collected from a total of 819 points through the national natural environment survey data. In order to improve the performance of the MaxEnt model, the parameters of the model (LQH-1.5) were optimized, and 7 detailed biolicm indices and 5 topographical indices were applied to the MaxEnt model. Drainage, Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and Slope significantly contributed to the distribution of Acer pictum subsp. mono in Korea. As a result of reflecting the growth characteristics that favor moist and fertile soil, the influence of climatic factors was not significant. Accordingly, in the base year, the suitable habitat for a high level of Acer pictum subsp. mono is 3.41% of the area of Korea, and in the near future (2011 - 2040) and far future (2071 - 2100), SSP1-2.6 accounts for 0.01% and 0.02%, gradually decreasing. However, in SSP5-8.5, it was 0.01% and 0.72%, respectively, showing a tendency to decrease in the near future compared to the base year, but to gradually increase toward the far future. This study confirms the future distribution of vegetation that is more easily adapted to climate change, and has significance as a basic study that can be used for future forest restoration of climate change-adapted species.