일개 보건진료소 사업 지역의 사고조사 (A Study of the Accidents of the Residents in a Rural Area)
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- Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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- 제8권2호
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- pp.174-184
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- 1991
농촌지역 사고의 발생정도를 파악하고 이와 관련된 인적, 환경요인을 알고자 1988년 1월 1일 부터 1988년 12월 31일 까지 1년 동안 경상북도 상주군 중동면 신암리 전 주민 1,360명을 대상으로 시행된 연구의 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 대상자 1,360명 중 85건의 각종 사고가 발생하여 1,000명당 연간 발생률은 62.5였다. 연령별 발생률을 보면, 남자의 경우가 30-39세 군에서 1,000명당 연간 발생률 255.8로 가장 높았고, 여자의 경우는 60-69세가 1,000명당 연간 발생률 92.1로 가장 높았다. 성별 발생건수는 남자가 59건, 여자가 26건으로 남자에서 유의하게 높았으며, 1,000명당 연간 발생률도 남자가 86.5, 여자가 38.3으로 남자가 2배 이상 높았다. 사고를 월별, 계절별로 살펴보면 2월, 5월과 7월에 가장 많았고, 계절별로 보면 봄과 여름이 가장 많았다. 요일별로 보면 금요일에 24.7%로 가장 많이 발생하였고 그 다음이 월요일과 토요일로 각각 20.0% 발생하였다. 시간대 별로 나누어 보면 오전 9시에서 12시 사이에 전체손상의 42.2%가 발생하여 가장 많았고, 오후 9시와 오전 8시 사이에는 전체손상의 5% 미만이 발생하였다. 사고 발생시 이용한 의료기관은 보건진료소가 44건으로 51.8%를 차지하였고, 의원이 33건으로 38.8%를 차지하였다. 의료기관 이용일수는 일주일 이내에 완치된 경우가 54건으로 63.5%를 차지하였고, 한달 이상 치료한 경우도 9.4%에 이르렀다. 사고가 일어난 장소는 방과 마루, 부엌과 같은 가옥내 구조물에서 일어난 것이 23.5%, 창고나 운동장 등에서 일어난 것이 23.5% 그리고 길에서 일어난 손상이 22.4%, 논이나 밭에서 일어난 것이 20.0%를 차지하였다. 사고의 원인은 교통사고와 창상 또는 자상이 각각 17건(20.0%)으로 가장 많았다. 손상의 형태로는 개방창이 37건으로 43.5%를 차지하였고, 골절과 표면성 손상이 각각 12.9%, 다음이 중독으로 12.8%를 차지하였다. 사고의 원인이 된 도구는 농기구에 의한 것이 20건으로 가장 많았다. 손상의 부위는 손과 다리 부분이 각각 18.8%와 20.0%로 나타났고 다음이 안면부 손상이었다.
현재 국내 및 국외를 아울러 무인항공기(Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, UAV)의 관심이 상당히 높아졌다. UAV에는 영상을 촬영하는 카메라가 탑재되어 있어 고고학 조사가 불가능한 지역의 접근에 유리하다. 더구나 항공사진 촬영을 통해 지형을 모델링하여 3차원 공간영상정보를 취득할 수 있어, 조사 대상지역의 지형에 대한 해석을 구체화할 수 있다. 이와 함께 과거 항공사진과의 비교 검토를 통해 지형의 변화모습을 파악한다면 유적의 존재 여부의 파악에도 많은 도움이 될 것이다. 이러한 유적 탐색을 위한 지형모델링은 크게 두 부분으로 나누어 접근할 수 있다. 우선 드론을 이용한 현재 지형의 항공사진을 취득한 후 이를 영상정합하고 후처리 과정을 진행하여 완성하는 방법과 과거 항공사진을 이용한 영상접합과 지형모델링을 완성하는 방법 등이다. 이 과정을 거쳐 완성한 모델링 지형은 여러 분석결과를 도출할 수 있는데, 현재의 지형모델링에서는 DSM과 DTM, 고도분석 등의 지형분석을 실시하여 형질변경 및 미지형의 모습을 대략적으로 파악할 수 있고, 과거 항공사진의 지형모델링에서는 원지형과 저습지 내 매몰미지형의 모습 등을 파악할 수 있다. 이를 실제 조사된 내용과 비교하고 각각의 지형모델링 자료를 중첩하여 살펴보게 되면 구릉지형에서는 형질변경의 모습을, 저습지형에서는 매몰된 미지형의 모습을 볼 수 있어 유적의 존부를 파악하는데 매우 유용하게 사용될 수 있다. 이처럼 항공사진을 이용한 모델링 자료는 고고학현장에서 조사가 불가한 사유지나 광범위한 지역의 지형에 유적의 존재여부를 파악하는데 유용하며, 추후 유적의 보존처리와 관련한 논의에도 적극 이용될 수 있다. 나아가 과거와 현재의 지형자료의 비교를 통해 지적도나 토지활용도 등의 주제도로 제공이 가능하는 등, 다양한 방식으로의 활용 가능성을 생각할 수 있다. 그러나 무엇보다도 고고학 자료의 존재유무 파악을 위한 유적 탐색의 새로운 조사방법론으로 기능할 수 있다.
The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.