• Title/Summary/Keyword: variance decomposition

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Analytical Sensitivity Analysis of Geometric Errors in a Three-Axis Machine Tool (해석적 방법을 통한 3 축 공작기계의 기하학적 오차 민감도 분석)

  • Park, Sung-Ryung;Yang, Seung-Han
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.165-171
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, an analytical method is used to perform a sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in a three-axis machine tool. First, an error synthesis model is constructed for evaluating the position volumetric error due to the geometric errors, and then an output variable is defined, such as the magnitude of the position volumetric error. Next, the global sensitivity analysis is executed using an analytical method. Finally, the sensitivity indices are calculated using the quantitative values of the geometric errors.

MVDR Beamformer for High Frequency Resolution Using Subband Decomposition (부대역을 이용한 MVDR 빔형성기의 주파수 분해능 향상 기법)

  • 이장식;박도현;김정수;이균경
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.62-68
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    • 2002
  • It is well known that the MDVR beamforming outperforms the conventional delay-sum beamformer in the sense of noise rejection and bearing resolution. However, the MDVR method requires long observation time to achieve high frequency resolution. The STMV method uses the steered covariance matrix of sensor data, so it has an ability to form an adaptive weight vector from a single time-series snapshot. But it uses the same weight vector across all frequencies. In this paper, we propose an SSMV method. The basic idea of the SSMV method is to decompose a full frequency band into several subbands to acquire a weight vector for each subband, individually. Also the wrap may be divided into several subarrays in order to reduce a computational load and the bandwidth of each subband. Simulations using real sea trial data show that the proposed SSMV method has good performance with short observation time.

AN ASYMPTOTIC DECOMPOSITION OF HEDGING ERRORS

  • Song Seong-Joo;Mykland Per A.
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.115-142
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    • 2006
  • This paper studies the problem of option hedging when the underlying asset price process is a compound Poisson process. By adopting an asymptotic approach to let the security price converge to a continuous process, we find a closed-form hedging strategy that improves the classical Black-Scholes hedging strategy in a quadratic sense. We first show that the scaled Black-scholes hedging error has a limit in law, and that limit is decomposed into a part that can be traded away and a part that is purely unreplicable. The Black-Scholes hedging strategy is then modified by adding the replicable part of its hedging error and by adding the mean-variance hedging strategy to the nonreplicable part. Some results of simulation experiment s are also provided.

An Analysis of Co-movement among Foreign Exchange of Korea, China and Japan with the Change on the Financial & Commerce Environment (금융통상환경 변화와 한중일 환율 동조화 분석)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Ham, Hyung-Bum
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.153-175
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    • 2010
  • This study conducts an analysis to verify an existence of co-movement among the exchange rates of Yuan-Dollar, Yen-Dollar and Won-Dollar by using time series data. An analysis period is divided into two periods. Therefore the first analysis period is from Dec. 17, 1997 to Jul. 21th. 20, 2005 and the second analysis period is from Jul. 25th, 2005 to Nov. 20th. 2009. This paper uses VAR model and daily data of exchange rates during the period. According to the result of an empirical analysis, yuan-dollar exchange rate has affected by th other variables ; yen-dollar exchange rate. It can be proved by result of an impulse response test and variance decomposition test in the second period. Therefore the won-dollar, yen-dollar, and Yen-dollar exchange rate has been influenced each other and the relationship will be maintained.

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Asset Price, the Exchange Rate, and Trade Balances in China: A Sign Restriction VAR Approach

  • Kim, Wongi
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.371-400
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    • 2018
  • Although asset price is an important factor in determining changes in external balances, no studies have investigated it from the Chinese perspective. In this study, I empirically examine the underlying driving forces of China's trade balances, particularly the role of asset price and the real exchange rate. To this end, I estimate a sign-restricted structural vector autoregressive model with quarterly time series data for China, using the Bayesian method. The results show that changes in asset price affect China's trade balances through private consumption and investment. Also, an appreciation of the real exchange rate tends to deteriorate trade balances in China. Furthermore, forecast error variance decomposition results indicate that changes in asset price (stock price and housing price) explain about 20% variability of trade balances, while changes in the real exchange rate can explain about 10%.

A Study on Demanding forecasting Model of a Cadastral Surveying Operation by analyzing its primary factors (지적측량업무 영향요인 분석을 통한 수요예측모형 연구)

  • Song, Myeong-Suk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.477-481
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to provide the ideal forecasting model of cadastral survey work load through the Economeatric Analysis of Time Series, Granger Causality and VAR Model Analysis, it suggested the forecasting reference materials for the total amount of cadastral survey general work load. The main result is that the derive of the environment variables which affect cadastral survey general work load and the outcome of VAR(vector auto regression) analysis materials(impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition analysis materials), which explain the change of general work load depending on altering the environment variables. And also, For confirming the stability of time series data, we took a unit root test, ADF(Augmented Dickey-Fuller) analysis and the time series model analysis derives the best cadastral forecasting model regarding on general cadastral survey work load. And also, it showed up the various standards that are applied the statistical method of econometric analysis so it enhanced the prior aggregate system of cadastral survey work load forecasting.

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Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Chinese Stock Markets

  • Lee, Jung Wan;Zhao, Tianyuan Frederic
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2014
  • This paper empirically examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between stock market prices and exchange rates in Chinese stock markets using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2012 retrieved from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. Unit root, cointegration tests, vector error correction estimates, block exogeneity Wald tests, impulse responses, variance decomposition techniques and structural break tests are employed. This study found 1) long-run causality from exchange rates to stock prices in Chinese stock markets and 2) short-run causality from Japanese yen and Korean won exchange rates to stock prices in the Shanghai Stock Exchange strongly prevails while in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange weakly prevails. The impact of the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009 on Chinese stock markets was insignificant.

An Empirical Investigation on the Interactions of Foreign Investments, Stock Returns and Foreign Exchange Rates

  • Kim, Yoon-Tae;Lee, Kyu-Seok;Shin, Dong-Ho
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2002
  • Foreign investors'shares and their influences on the Korean stock market have never been larger and greater before since the market was completely open to foreign investors in 1992 Quantitatively and qualitatively as well, as a result, changes in the patterns of foreign investments have caused enormous effects on the interactions of major macroeconomic indices of the Korean economy. This paper is intended to investigate the causal relations of the four variables, foreigners'buy-sell ratios, stock returns, ₩/$ exchange rates and $\yen$/$ exchange rates, over the two time periods of the pre-IMF (1996.1.1-1997.8.15) and the post-IMF (1997.8.16-2000.6.15) based on the daily data of the variables. Granger Causality Test, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) using VAR model and Impulse Response Function were implemented for the empirical analysis.

Stationary bootstrap test for jumps in high-frequency financial asset data

  • Hwang, Eunju;Shin, Dong Wan
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.163-177
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    • 2016
  • We consider a jump diffusion process for high-frequency financial asset data. We apply the stationary bootstrapping to construct a bootstrap test for jumps. First-order asymptotic validity is established for the stationary bootstrapping of the jump ratio test under the null hypothesis of no jump. Consistency of the stationary bootstrap test is proved under the alternative of jumps. A Monte-Carlo experiment shows the advantage of a stationary bootstrapping test over the test based on the normal asymptotic theory. The proposed bootstrap test is applied to construct continuous-jump decomposition of the daily realized variance of the KOSPI for the year 2008 of the world-wide financial crisis.

Time-varying Co-movements and Contagion Effects in Asian Sovereign CDS Markets

  • Cho, Daehyoung;Choi, Kyongwook
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.357-379
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    • 2015
  • We investigate interconnectedness and the contagion effect of default risk in Asian sovereign CDS markets since the global financial crisis. Using dynamic conditional correlation analysis, we find that there are significant co-movements in Asian sovereign CDS markets; that such co-movements tend to be larger between developing countries than between developed and developing countries; and that in the co-movements intra-regional nature is stronger than inter-regional nature. With the Spillover Index model, we measure contagion probabilities of sovereign default risk in CDS markets of seven Asian countries and find evidence of contagion effects among six of them; Japan is the exception. In addition, we find that these six countries are affected more by cross-market spillovers than by their own-market spillovers. Furthermore, a rolling-sample analysis reveals that contagion in the Asian sovereign CDS markets expands during episodes of extreme economic and financial distress, such as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the European financial crisis, and the US-credit downgrade.