• Title/Summary/Keyword: value at risk

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Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

The Effects of Bundle Price Discount Framing and Message Framing on Consumers' Evaluation of Bundle Component (번들가격할인 프레이밍과 메시지 프레이밍이 소비자의 번들구성제품에 대한 평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Sojin
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.55-77
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    • 2011
  • This study investigate the interaction effects of bundle price discount framing and message framing on consumer's attitude of bundle component. Although each effect of bundle price discount framing and message framing has been explored individually, few attempts have been made to invest them jointly. This study tests the interaction effects of bundle price discount framing and message framing on consumer's evaluation of bundle component. Moreover, this research focuses on consumer's evaluation of individual bundle component while the existing research on bundling primarily focused on consumer's evaluation of the bundle. Prior research suggests that consumers are sensitive to the framing of prices and discounts in the presentation of the bundle offer. For example, there is considerable evidence that partitioning or consolidating the prices of a bundle can influence the attractiveness of the bundle offer. Similarly, there is evidence that an equivalent price reduction to the overall bundle, one of the individual products in the bundle, or distributed among the individual products in the bundle can alter the perceived attractiveness of the offer (e.g. Chakravarti, Krish, Paul, and Srivastava 2002; Hamilton and Srivastava 2008; Janiszewski and Cunha 2004; Johnson, Herrmann and Bauer 1999; ; Morwitz, Greenleaf, and Johnson 1998; Yadav 1994; 1995). In line with these earlier research, this research suggests that the bundle type can influence the consumer's evaluation of bundle component. There are two types of bundle - mixed-leader bundle and mixed-joint bundle. In mixed-leader bundling, the price of one of the two products is discounted when the other product is purchased at the regular price. In mixed-joint bundling, a single price is set when the two product are purchased jointly. This study supposes that the teeth whitening product is the leader product in a mixed-leader bundle. So bundle price discount framing is manipulated such as "Buy the teeth whitening product (regular price \80,000) and get 50% discount on the functional toothpaste(regular price \40,000), special set price \100,000" or "Buy the functional toothpaste and the teeth whitening product as a set and get discount for the set, special set price \60,000". Message framing is manipulated through the product claims described in an advertising bill. The positive framing presents that "Over 95% of users achieved the expected 2-3 shades of improvement in two weeks" where as the negative framing presents "less than 5% of users did not achieve the expected 2-3 shades of improvement in two weeks". This study uses hypothetical brand name of the teeth whitening product and the functional toothpaste This study is based on a 2x2 factorial design with bundle discount framing (mixed-leader bundle vs. mixed-joint bundle) and massage framing (positive vs. negative). The dependant variables are consumer's perceived quality and attitude of the teeth whitening product The data reveals that two dependant variables are correlated, so the data is analyzed with two-way MANOVA. This research explores the significant interaction effect of bundle discount framing and message framing on consumer's perceived quality and attitude of the teeth whitening product. When the message framing is positive, consumer's perceived quality and attitude of the teeth whitening product is higher in mixed-leader bundle than mixed-joint bundle condition. However, when the message framing is negative, consumer's evaluation is higher in mixed-joint bundle than mixed-leader bundle. The author explains this result by stating that consumers are less likely to use heuristics such as price-quality association and value discounting hypothesis(Raghubir 2004) in the negative message framing condition. Additionally, consumer's perceived risk of the teeth whitening product in the negative message framing condition can be more reduced by the bundle partner(e.g. the toothpaste) in mixed-joint bundle than mixed-leader bundle. Based on the results, marketing managers are advised to use different bundle type based on message framing of their product.

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The Effect of Price Promotional Information about Brand on Consumer's Quality Perception: Conditioning on Pretrial Brand (품패개격촉소신식대소비자질량인지적영향(品牌价格促销信息对消费者质量认知的影响))

  • Lee, Min-Hoon;Lim, Hang-Seop
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2009
  • Price promotion typically reduces the price for a given quantity or increases the quantity available at the same price, thereby enhancing value and creating an economic incentive to purchase. It often is used to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important to understand the effects of price promotions on quality perception made by consumer who do not have prior experience with the promoted brand. However, if consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior brand quality, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. More specifically, low qualitative perception through price promotion will undercut the economic and psychological incentives and reduce the likelihood of purchase. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. Previous literatures on the effects of price promotions on quality perception reveal inconsistent explanations. Some focused on the unfavorable effect of price promotion on consumer's perception. But others showed that price promotions didn't raise unfavorable perception on the brand. Prior researches found these inconsistent results related to the timing of the price promotion's exposure and quality evaluation relative to trial. And, whether the consumer has been experienced with the product promotions in the past or not may moderate the effects. A few studies considered differences among product categories as fundamental factors. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of price promotional informations on consumer's unfavorable quality perception under the different conditions. The author controlled the timing of the promotional exposure and varied past promotional patterns and information presenting patterns. Unlike previous researches, the author examined the effects of price promotions setting limit to pretrial situation by controlling potentially moderating effects of prior personal experience with the brand. This manipulations enable to resolve possible controversies in relation to this issue. And this manipulation is meaningful for the work sector. Price promotion is not only used to target existing consumers but also to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. If consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior quality about unused brand, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. In addition, if the price promotion ends, the consumer that have purchased that certain brand will likely to display sharply decreased repurchasing behavior. Through a literature review, hypothesis 1 was set as follows to investigate the adjustive effect of past price promotion on quality perception made by consumers; The influence that price promotion of unused brand have on quality perception made by consumers will be adjusted by past price promotion activity of the brand. In other words, a price promotion of an unused brand that have not done a price promotion in the past will have a unfavorable effect on quality perception made by consumer. Hypothesis 2-1 was set as follows : When an unused brand undertakes price promotion for the first time, the information presenting pattern of price promotion will have an effect on the consumer's attribution for the cause of the price promotion. Hypothesis 2-2 was set as follows : The more consumer dispositionally attribute the cause of price promotion, the more unfavorable the quality perception made by consumer will be. Through test 1, the subjects were given a brief explanation of the product and the brand before they were provided with a $2{\times}2$ factorial design that has 4 patterns of price promotion (presence or absence of past price promotion * presence or absence of current price promotion) and the explanation describing the price promotion pattern of each cell. Then the perceived quality of imaginary brand WAVEX was evaluated in the scale of 7. The reason tennis racket was chosen is because the selected product group must have had almost no past price promotions to eliminate the influence of average frequency of promotion on the value of price promotional information as Raghubir and Corfman (1999) pointed out. Test 2 was also carried out on students of the same management faculty of test 1 with tennis racket as the product group. As with test 1, subjects with average familiarity for the product group and low familiarity for the brand was selected. Each subjects were assigned to one of the two cells representing two different information presenting patterns of price promotion of WAVEX (case where the reason behind price promotion was provided/case where the reason behind price promotion was not provided). Subjects looked at each promotional information before evaluating the perceived quality of the brand WAVEX in the scale of 7. The effect of price promotion for unfamiliar pretrial brand on consumer's perceived quality was proved to be moderated with the presence or absence of past price promotion. The consistency with past promotional behavior is important variable that makes unfavorable effect on brand evaluations get worse. If the price promotion for the brand has never been carried out before, price promotion activity may have more unfavorable effects on consumer's quality perception. Second, when the price promotion of unfamiliar pretrial brand was executed for the first time, presenting method of informations has impact on consumer's attribution for the cause of firm's promotion. And the unfavorable effect of quality perception is higher when the consumer does dispositional attribution comparing with situational attribution. Unlike the previous studies where the main focus was the absence or presence of favorable or unfavorable motivation from situational/dispositional attribution, the focus of this study was exaus ing the fact that a situational attribution can be inferred even if the consumer employs a dispositional attribution on the price promotional behavior, if the company provides a persuasive reason. Such approach, in academic perspectih sis a large significance in that it explained the anchoring and adjng ch approcedures by applying it to a non-mathematical problem unlike the previous studies where it wis ionaly explained by applying it to a mathematical problem. In other wordn, there is a highrspedency tmatispositionally attribute other's behaviors according to the fuedach aal attribution errors and when this is applied to the situation of price promotions, we can infer that consumers are likely tmatispositionally attribute the company's price promotion behaviors. Ha ever, even ueder these circumstances, the company can adjng the consumer's anchoring tmareduce the po wibiliute thdispositional attribution. Furthermore, unlike majority of previous researches on short/long-term effects of price promotion that only considered the effect of price promotions on consumer's purchasing behaviors, this research measured the effect on perceived quality, one of man elements that affects the purchasing behavior of consumers. These results carry useful implications for the work sector. A guideline of effectively providing promotional informations for a new brand can be suggested through the outcomes of this research. If the brand is to avoid false implications such as inferior quality while implementing a price promotion strategy, it must provide a clear and acceptable reasons behind the promotion. Especially it is more important for the company with no past price promotion to provide a clear reason. An inconsistent behavior can be the cause of consumer's distrust and anxiety. This is also one of the most important factor of risk of endless price wars. Price promotions without prior notice can buy doubt from consumers not market share.

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The Cox-Maze Procedure for Atrial Fibrillation Concomitant with Mitral Valve Disease (승모판막질환에 동반된 심방세동에서 Cox-Maze 술식)

  • Kim, Ki-Bong;Cho, Kwang-Ree;Ahn, Hyuk
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.31 no.10
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    • pp.939-944
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    • 1998
  • Background: The sugical results of the Cox-Maze procedure (CMP) for lone atrial fibrillation(AF) have proven to be exellent. However, those for AF associated with mitral valve(MV) disease have been reported to be a little inferior. Materials and methods: To assess the efficacy and safety of the CMP as a combined procedure with MV operation, we studied retrospectively our experiences. Between April 1994 and October 1997, we experienced 70 (23 males, 47 females) cases of CMP concomitantly with MV operation. Results: The etiologies of MV disease were rheumatic in 67 and degenerative in 3 cases. The mean duration of AF before sugery was 66$\pm$70 months. Fifteen patients had the past medical history of thromboembolic complications, and left atrial thrombi were identified at operation in 24 patients. Twelve cases were reoperations. Aortic cross clamp (ACC) time was mean 151$\pm$44 minutes, and cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time was mean 246$\pm$65 minutes. Concomitant procedures were mitral valve replacement (MVR) in 19, MVR and aortic valve replacement (AVR) in 14, MVR and tricupid annuloplasty (TAP) in 8, MVR with AV repair in 3, MV repair in 11, MVR and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in 2, MVR and AVR and CABG in 1, redo-MVR in 10, redo-MVR and redo-AVR in 2 patients. The rate of hospital mortality was 1.4%(1/70). Perioperative recurrence of AF was seen in 44(62.9%), and atrial tachyarrhythmias in 10(14.3%), low cardiac output syndrome in 4(5.7%), postoperative bleeding that required mediastinal exploration in 4(5.7%) patients. Other complications were acute renal failure in 2, aggravation of preoperative hemiplegia in 1, and transient delirium in 1 patient. We followed up all the survivors for 16.4 months(3-44months) on an average. Sinus rhythm has been restored in 65(94.2%) patients. AF has been controlled by operation alone in 73.9% and operation plus medication in 20.3%. Two patients needed permanent pacemaker implantation; one with sick sinus syndrome, and the other with tachycardia- bradycardia syndrome. Only two patients remained in AF. We followed up our patients with transthoracic echocardiography to assess the atrial contractilities and other cardiac functions. Right atrial contractility could be demonstrated in 92% and left atrial contractility in 53%.We compared our non-redo cases with redo cases. Although the duration of AF was significantly longer in redo cases, there was no differences in ACC time, CPB time, postoperative bleeding amount and sinus conversion rate. Conclusions: In conclusion, the CMP concomitant with MV operation demonstrated a high sinus conversion rate under the acceptable operative risk even in case of reoperation.

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Effect of Geijibokryunghwan and each constituent herb on inhibition of platelet aggregation (계지복령환(桂枝茯笭丸) 및 그 구성약물(構成藥物)의 혈소판응집억제(血小板凝集抑制)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Jong-Goo;Park, Sun-Dong;Park, Won-Hwan
    • The Journal of Dong Guk Oriental Medicine
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2000
  • The cause that the increase of animality fat intakes, under exercise, fatness, adding the stress, advanced age etc., the occurrence rate of the circulation system disease has been increased. And the thrombosis importantly came to the front as the risk factor of these circulation system's disease. Nowadays, the ischemic disease has especially discussed, for example the angina or myocardial infarction, originated in thrombosis that came from the platelet aggregation. In the western medicine, as the cure and prevention, using the aspirin or ticlopidine for platelet aggregation suppressant. But in the , the curing method must be used properly according to the pectoralgia or heartache's kind, state, grade. The platelet do not attache to the normal hemangioendothelial cell. But when it stimulated by endothelium peronia and so on, it attache to the injury endothelium or rise aggregation between the platelet. On this time, it secrete the platelet aggregation inducer as like ADP, thromboxane A2 from the inside of platelet. So it has first defensive function through the aggregation augment that prevent the celerity consumption of blood. But the activation of abnormal platelet occur the platelet grume and thrombogenesis. So it bring up the occlusive angiosis, so to speak, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, arterial sclerosis. In oriental medicine, the thrombosis in the category of blood stasis and this blood stasis present the generalise or local blood circulation disturbance that generated by all kinds of pathological fact or blood stream retention accompanying with a series of syndrome. As the syndrome, stabbing pain fixed at certain region, squamous and dry skin, fullness and pain of the chest and hypochondrium, firmness and fullness of the lower abdomen, black stool, dark purple tongue or with ecchymoses and petechiae etc.. has been created. And it becomes the pathopoiesis cause that the convulsion and palpitation, severe palpitatiion, tympanites, the symtom complex with a mass or swelling in the abdomen, insanity, stricken by wind etc.. Moreover, it used the drugs for invigorating blood circulation and eliminating blood stasis or drugs for removing blood stasis for all kinds of syndrome through the blood stasis. And the drugs for activating the blood circulation, such as Salviae Radix, Angelicae Sinensis Radix, Persicae Semen, Achyranthis Radix, Cnidii Rhizoma, Carthami Flos are used for that. And it is used to the herbs of insects that has strong effect about the disintergrating blood stasis such as Hirudo, Scolopendrae Corpus, Buthus, Lumbricus etc.. On this study, It used Geijibokryunghwan(GBH) and the consisting herbs to investigate the influence of platelet aggregation about drugs that used to improvement various symptoms created by the thrombosis in oriental medicine. GBH formula has as formula recorded in the , action of 'eleminating the evil and not impairment of healthy energy' and 'promoting the flow of QI and cold and heat, so used for the expel blood stasis herbs from the ancient. Therefore we investigated the restraint effect of GBH and the consisting herbs about the platelet agregation induced to the ADP, AA or collagen. The conclusion is following. 1. When it added the aggregation inducer after that it added GBH and individual consisting herbs in the PRP, GBH showed the (+) inhibition effect on the platelet aggregation and it showed the (+) inhibition effect in the individual consisting herbs as like Paeoniae Radix and Moutan Cortex Radicis. 2. It showed the (+), (+,++) inhibition effect on the platelet aggregation in Paeoniae Radix Hoelen, Paeoniae Radix Moutan Cortex Radicis, Hoelen Moutan Cortex Radicis etc. 3. In the aggregation inhibition activating on the difference of density, GBH showed strong inhibition effect to the aggregation state induced to collagen, and it showed the inhibition effect in the individual consisting herbs as like Paeoniae Radix and Moutan Cortex Radicis about the aggregation induced by the collagen. 4. It showed the strong inhibition effect about the aggregation induced by the collagen in Paeoniae Radix Hoelen, Paeoniae Radix Moutan Cortex Radicis, Hoelen Moutan Cortex Radicis etc Like this, as confirm GBH and the individual consisting herb's inhibition effect of platelet aggregation, We considerated that GBH and the individual consisting herbs have practical applicational value of clinical trial in the thrombosis caused by platelet aggregation.

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Optimum Radiotherapy Schedule for Uterine Cervical Cancer based-on the Detailed Information of Dose Fractionation and Radiotherapy Technique (처방선량 및 치료기법별 치료성적 분석 결과에 기반한 자궁경부암 환자의 최적 방사선치료 스케줄)

  • Cho, Jae-Ho;Kim, Hyun-Chang;Suh, Chang-Ok;Lee, Chang-Geol;Keum, Ki-Chang;Cho, Nam-Hoon;Lee, Ik-Jae;Shim, Su-Jung;Suh, Yang-Kwon;Seong, Jinsil;Kim, Gwi-Eon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2005
  • Background: The best dose-fractionation regimen of the definitive radiotherapy for cervix cancer remains to be clearly determined. It seems to be partially attributed to the complexity of the affecting factors and the lack of detailed information on external and intra-cavitary fractionation. To find optimal practice guidelines, our experiences of the combination of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-ICBT) were reviewed with detailed information of the various treatment parameters obtained from a large cohort of women treated homogeneously at a single institute. Materials and Methods: The subjects were 743 cervical cancer patients (Stage IB 198, IIA 77, IIB 364, IIIA 7, IIIB 89 and IVA 8) treated by radiotherapy alone, between 1990 and 1996. A total external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose of $23.4\~59.4$ Gy (Median 45.0) was delivered to the whole pelvis. High-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-IBT) was also peformed using various fractionation schemes. A Midline block (MLB) was initiated after the delivery of $14.4\~43.2$ Gy (Median 36.0) of EBRT in 495 patients, while In the other 248 patients EBRT could not be used due to slow tumor regression or the huge initial bulk of tumor. The point A, actual bladder & rectal doses were individually assessed in all patients. The biologically effective dose (BED) to the tumor ($\alpha/\beta$=10) and late-responding tissues ($\alpha/\beta$=3) for both EBRT and HDR-ICBT were calculated. The total BED values to point A, the actual bladder and rectal reference points were the summation of the EBRT and HDR-ICBT. In addition to all the details on dose-fractionation, the other factors (i.e. the overall treatment time, physicians preference) that can affect the schedule of the definitive radiotherapy were also thoroughly analyzed. The association between MD-BED $Gy_3$ and the risk of complication was assessed using serial multiple logistic regression models. The associations between R-BED $Gy_3$ and rectal complications and between V-BED $Gy_3$ and bladder complications were assessed using multiple logistic regression models after adjustment for age, stage, tumor size and treatment duration. Serial Coxs proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the relative risks of recurrence due to MD-BED $Gy_{10}$, and the treatment duration. Results: The overall complication rate for RTOG Grades $1\~4$ toxicities was $33.1\%$. The 5-year actuarial pelvic control rate for ail 743 patients was $83\%$. The midline cumulative BED dose, which is the sum of external midline BED and HDR-ICBT point A BED, ranged from 62.0 to 121.9 $Gy_{10}$ (median 93.0) for tumors and from 93.6 to 187.3 $Gy_3$ (median 137.6) for late responding tissues. The median cumulative values of actual rectal (R-BED $Gy_3$) and bladder Point BED (V-BED $Gy_3$) were 118.7 $Gy_3$ (range $48.8\~265.2$) and 126.1 $Gy_3$ (range: $54.9\~267.5$), respectively. MD-BED $Gy_3$ showed a good correlation with rectal (p=0.003), but not with bladder complications (p=0.095). R-BED $Gy_3$ had a very strong association (p=<0.0001), and was more predictive of rectal complications than A-BED $Gy_3$. B-BED $Gy_3$ also showed significance in the prediction of bladder complications in a trend test (p=0.0298). No statistically significant dose-response relationship for pelvic control was observed. The Sandwich and Continuous techniques, which differ according to when the ICR was inserted during the EBRT and due to the physicians preference, showed no differences in the local control and complication rates; there were also no differences in the 3 vs. 5 Gy fraction size of HDR-ICBT. Conclusion: The main reasons optimal dose-fractionation guidelines are not easily established is due to the absence of a dose-response relationship for tumor control as a result of the high-dose gradient of HDR-ICBT, individual differences In tumor responses to radiation therapy and the complexity of affecting factors. Therefore, in our opinion, there is a necessity for individualized tailored therapy, along with general guidelines, in the definitive radiation treatment for cervix cancer. This study also demonstrated the strong predictive value of actual rectal and bladder reference dosing therefore, vaginal gauze packing might be very Important. To maintain the BED dose to less than the threshold resulting in complication, early midline shielding, the HDR-ICBT total dose and fractional dose reduction should be considered.