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Information Privacy Concern in Context-Aware Personalized Services: Results of a Delphi Study

  • Lee, Yon-Nim;Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.63-86
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    • 2010
  • Personalized services directly and indirectly acquire personal data, in part, to provide customers with higher-value services that are specifically context-relevant (such as place and time). Information technologies continue to mature and develop, providing greatly improved performance. Sensory networks and intelligent software can now obtain context data, and that is the cornerstone for providing personalized, context-specific services. Yet, the danger of overflowing personal information is increasing because the data retrieved by the sensors usually contains privacy information. Various technical characteristics of context-aware applications have more troubling implications for information privacy. In parallel with increasing use of context for service personalization, information privacy concerns have also increased such as an unrestricted availability of context information. Those privacy concerns are consistently regarded as a critical issue facing context-aware personalized service success. The entire field of information privacy is growing as an important area of research, with many new definitions and terminologies, because of a need for a better understanding of information privacy concepts. Especially, it requires that the factors of information privacy should be revised according to the characteristics of new technologies. However, previous information privacy factors of context-aware applications have at least two shortcomings. First, there has been little overview of the technology characteristics of context-aware computing. Existing studies have only focused on a small subset of the technical characteristics of context-aware computing. Therefore, there has not been a mutually exclusive set of factors that uniquely and completely describe information privacy on context-aware applications. Second, user survey has been widely used to identify factors of information privacy in most studies despite the limitation of users' knowledge and experiences about context-aware computing technology. To date, since context-aware services have not been widely deployed on a commercial scale yet, only very few people have prior experiences with context-aware personalized services. It is difficult to build users' knowledge about context-aware technology even by increasing their understanding in various ways: scenarios, pictures, flash animation, etc. Nevertheless, conducting a survey, assuming that the participants have sufficient experience or understanding about the technologies shown in the survey, may not be absolutely valid. Moreover, some surveys are based solely on simplifying and hence unrealistic assumptions (e.g., they only consider location information as a context data). A better understanding of information privacy concern in context-aware personalized services is highly needed. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to identify a generic set of factors for elemental information privacy concern in context-aware personalized services and to develop a rank-order list of information privacy concern factors. We consider overall technology characteristics to establish a mutually exclusive set of factors. A Delphi survey, a rigorous data collection method, was deployed to obtain a reliable opinion from the experts and to produce a rank-order list. It, therefore, lends itself well to obtaining a set of universal factors of information privacy concern and its priority. An international panel of researchers and practitioners who have the expertise in privacy and context-aware system fields were involved in our research. Delphi rounds formatting will faithfully follow the procedure for the Delphi study proposed by Okoli and Pawlowski. This will involve three general rounds: (1) brainstorming for important factors; (2) narrowing down the original list to the most important ones; and (3) ranking the list of important factors. For this round only, experts were treated as individuals, not panels. Adapted from Okoli and Pawlowski, we outlined the process of administrating the study. We performed three rounds. In the first and second rounds of the Delphi questionnaire, we gathered a set of exclusive factors for information privacy concern in context-aware personalized services. The respondents were asked to provide at least five main factors for the most appropriate understanding of the information privacy concern in the first round. To do so, some of the main factors found in the literature were presented to the participants. The second round of the questionnaire discussed the main factor provided in the first round, fleshed out with relevant sub-factors. Respondents were then requested to evaluate each sub factor's suitability against the corresponding main factors to determine the final sub-factors from the candidate factors. The sub-factors were found from the literature survey. Final factors selected by over 50% of experts. In the third round, a list of factors with corresponding questions was provided, and the respondents were requested to assess the importance of each main factor and its corresponding sub factors. Finally, we calculated the mean rank of each item to make a final result. While analyzing the data, we focused on group consensus rather than individual insistence. To do so, a concordance analysis, which measures the consistency of the experts' responses over successive rounds of the Delphi, was adopted during the survey process. As a result, experts reported that context data collection and high identifiable level of identical data are the most important factor in the main factors and sub factors, respectively. Additional important sub-factors included diverse types of context data collected, tracking and recording functionalities, and embedded and disappeared sensor devices. The average score of each factor is very useful for future context-aware personalized service development in the view of the information privacy. The final factors have the following differences comparing to those proposed in other studies. First, the concern factors differ from existing studies, which are based on privacy issues that may occur during the lifecycle of acquired user information. However, our study helped to clarify these sometimes vague issues by determining which privacy concern issues are viable based on specific technical characteristics in context-aware personalized services. Since a context-aware service differs in its technical characteristics compared to other services, we selected specific characteristics that had a higher potential to increase user's privacy concerns. Secondly, this study considered privacy issues in terms of service delivery and display that were almost overlooked in existing studies by introducing IPOS as the factor division. Lastly, in each factor, it correlated the level of importance with professionals' opinions as to what extent users have privacy concerns. The reason that it did not select the traditional method questionnaire at that time is that context-aware personalized service considered the absolute lack in understanding and experience of users with new technology. For understanding users' privacy concerns, professionals in the Delphi questionnaire process selected context data collection, tracking and recording, and sensory network as the most important factors among technological characteristics of context-aware personalized services. In the creation of a context-aware personalized services, this study demonstrates the importance and relevance of determining an optimal methodology, and which technologies and in what sequence are needed, to acquire what types of users' context information. Most studies focus on which services and systems should be provided and developed by utilizing context information on the supposition, along with the development of context-aware technology. However, the results in this study show that, in terms of users' privacy, it is necessary to pay greater attention to the activities that acquire context information. To inspect the results in the evaluation of sub factor, additional studies would be necessary for approaches on reducing users' privacy concerns toward technological characteristics such as highly identifiable level of identical data, diverse types of context data collected, tracking and recording functionality, embedded and disappearing sensor devices. The factor ranked the next highest level of importance after input is a context-aware service delivery that is related to output. The results show that delivery and display showing services to users in a context-aware personalized services toward the anywhere-anytime-any device concept have been regarded as even more important than in previous computing environment. Considering the concern factors to develop context aware personalized services will help to increase service success rate and hopefully user acceptance for those services. Our future work will be to adopt these factors for qualifying context aware service development projects such as u-city development projects in terms of service quality and hence user acceptance.

Long-term Effect of Desferrioxamine to rHuEPO Resistant Anemia in Hemodialysis Patients (혈액 투석 환자에서 나타나는 rHuEPO 저항성 빈혈에 대한 Desferrioxamine의 장기 효과)

  • Lim, Sang-Woo;Jung, Hang-Jae;Bae, Sung-Wha;Do, Jun-Young;Yoon, Kyung-Woo
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.399-414
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    • 1997
  • There are several factors concerning to anemia in chronic renal failure patients. But when rHuEPO is used, most of these factors can be overcome, and the levels of hemoglobin are increased. However, about 10% of the renal failure patients represent rHuEPO-resistant anemia eventhough high dosage of rHuEPO. For these cases, desferrioxamine can be applied to correct rHuEPO resistnacy, and many mechanism of DFO are arguing. So we are going to know whether DFO can be applied to correct anemia of the such patients, how long its effect can be continued. The seven pateients as experimental group(DFO+EPO) who represent refractoriness to rHuEPO and the other seven patients as control group(EPO) were included. Experimental group had lower than 9 g/dL of hemoglobin levels despite high rHuEPO dosage (more than 4000U/Wk) and showed normocytic normochromic anemia. There were no definitve causes of anemia such as hemorrhage or iron deficiency. Control group patients had similar characteristics in age, mean dialysis duration but showed adequate response to rHuEPO. DFO was administered to experimental group for 8 weeks along with rHuEPO(the rHuEPO individual mean dosage had been determined by mean dosage of the previous 6 months. Total mean dosage; 123.5 U/Kg/Wk). After 8 weeks of DFO administration, the hemoglobin and rHuEPO dosage levels were checked for 15 consecutive months. It should be noted that the patients determined their own rHuEPO dosage levels according to hemoglobin levels and economic status. In conrol group, rHuEPO was administered by the same method used in experimental group without DFO through the same period. Fifteen months of observation period after DFO trial were divided as Time I(7 months after DFO trial) and Time II(8 months after Time I). The results are as follows: Before DFO trial, mean hemoglobin level of experimental group was 7.8 g/dL, which is similar level(p>0.05) to control group(mean Hb; 8.2 g/dL). But in experimental group, significantly(p<0.05) higher dosages of rHuEPO(mean; 123.5 U/Kg/Wk) than control group (mean; 41.6 U/Kg/Wk) had been used. It means resistancy to rHuEPO of experimental group. But after DFO trial, the hemoglobin levels of the experimental group were increased significantly(p<0.05), and these effect were continued to Time II.(Time I; mean 8.6g/dL, Time II; mean 8.6g/dL) The effects of DFO to hemoglobin were continued for 15 months after DFO trial with similar degree through Time I, Time II. Also, rHuEPO dosages used in the experimental group were decreased to similar levels of the control group after DFO trial and these effect were also continued for 15 months(Time I; mean 48.1 U/Kg/Wk. Time II; mean 51.8 U/Kg/Wk). In the same period, hemoglobin levels and rHuEPO dosages used in the control group were not changed significantly. Notibly, hemoglobin increment and rHuEPO usage decrement in experimental group were showed maxilly in the 1st month after DFO trial. That is, after the use of DFO, erythopoiesis was enhanced with a reduced rHuEPO dosage. So we think rHuEPO reisistancy can be overcome by DFO therapy. In conclusion, the DFO can improve the anemia caused by chronic renal failure at least over 1 year, and hence, can reduce the dosage of rHuEPO for anemia correction. Additional studies in order to determine the mechanism of DFO on erythropoiesis and careful attention to potential side effects of DFO will be needed.

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Stratigraphic response to tectonic evolution of sedimentary basins in the Yellow Sea and adjacent areas (황해 및 인접 지역 퇴적분지들의 구조적 진화에 따른 층서)

  • Ryo In Chang;Kim Boo Yang;Kwak won Jun;Kim Gi Hyoun;Park Se Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Petroleum Geology
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    • v.8 no.1_2 s.9
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    • pp.1-43
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    • 2000
  • A comparison study for understanding a stratigraphic response to tectonic evolution of sedimentary basins in the Yellow Sea and adjacent areas was carried out by using an integrated stratigraphic technology. As an interim result, we propose a stratigraphic framework that allows temporal and spatial correlation of the sedimentary successions in the basins. This stratigraphic framework will use as a new stratigraphic paradigm for hydrocarbon exploration in the Yellow Sea and adjacent areas. Integrated stratigraphic analysis in conjunction with sequence-keyed biostratigraphy allows us to define nine stratigraphic units in the basins: Cambro-Ordovician, Carboniferous-Triassic, early to middle Jurassic, late Jurassic-early Cretaceous, late Cretaceous, Paleocene-Eocene, Oligocene, early Miocene, and middle Miocene-Pliocene. They are tectono-stratigraphic units that provide time-sliced information on basin-forming tectonics, sedimentation, and basin-modifying tectonics of sedimentary basins in the Yellow Sea and adjacent area. In the Paleozoic, the South Yellow Sea basin was initiated as a marginal sag basin in the northern margin of the South China Block. Siliciclastic and carbonate sediments were deposited in the basin, showing cyclic fashions due to relative sea-level fluctuations. During the Devonian, however, the basin was once uplifted and deformed due to the Caledonian Orogeny, which resulted in an unconformity between the Cambro-Ordovician and the Carboniferous-Triassic units. The second orogenic event, Indosinian Orogeny, occurred in the late Permian-late Triassic, when the North China block began to collide with the South China block. Collision of the North and South China blocks produced the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu-Imjin foldbelts and led to the uplift and deformation of the Paleozoic strata. Subsequent rapid subsidence of the foreland parallel to the foldbelts formed the Bohai and the West Korean Bay basins where infilled with the early to middle Jurassic molasse sediments. Also Piggyback basins locally developed along the thrust. The later intensive Yanshanian (first) Orogeny modified these foreland and Piggyback basins in the late Jurassic. The South Yellow Sea basin, however, was likely to be a continental interior sag basin during the early to middle Jurassic. The early to middle Jurassic unit in the South Yellow Sea basin is characterized by fluvial to lacustrine sandstone and shale with a thick basal quartz conglomerate that contains well-sorted and well-rounded gravels. Meanwhile, the Tan-Lu fault system underwent a sinistrai strike-slip wrench movement in the late Triassic and continued into the Jurassic and Cretaceous until the early Tertiary. In the late Jurassic, development of second- or third-order wrench faults along the Tan-Lu fault system probably initiated a series of small-scale strike-slip extensional basins. Continued sinistral movement of the Tan-Lu fault until the late Eocene caused a megashear in the South Yellow Sea basin, forming a large-scale pull-apart basin. However, the Bohai basin was uplifted and severely modified during this period. h pronounced Yanshanian Orogeny (second and third) was marked by the unconformity between the early Cretaceous and late Eocene in the Bohai basin. In the late Eocene, the Indian Plate began to collide with the Eurasian Plate, forming a megasuture zone. This orogenic event, namely the Himalayan Orogeny, was probably responsible for the change of motion of the Tan-Lu fault system from left-lateral to right-lateral. The right-lateral strike-slip movement of the Tan-Lu fault caused the tectonic inversion of the South Yellow Sea basin and the pull-apart opening of the Bohai basin. Thus, the Oligocene was the main period of sedimentation in the Bohai basin as well as severe tectonic modification of the South Yellow Sea basin. After the Oligocene, the Yellow Sea and Bohai basins have maintained thermal subsidence up to the present with short periods of marine transgressions extending into the land part of the present basins.

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A Study on Startups' Dependence on Business Incubation Centers (창업보육서비스에 따른 입주기업의 창업보육센터 의존도에 관한 연구)

  • Park, JaeSung;Lee, Chul;Kim, JaeJon
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.103-120
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    • 2009
  • As business incubation centers (BICs) have been operating for more than 10 years in Korea, many early stage startups tend to use the services provided by the incubating centers. BICs in Korea have accumulated the knowledge and experience in the past ten years and their services have been considerably improved. The business incubating service has three facets : (1) business infrastructure service, (2) direct service, and (3) indirect service. The mission of BICs is to provide the early stage entrepreneurs with the incubating service in a limited period time to help them grow strong enough to survive the fierce competition after graduating from the incubation. However, the incubating services sometimes fail to foster the independence of new startup companies, and raise the dependence of many companies on BICs. Thus, the dependence on BICs is a very important factor to understand the survival of the incubated startup companies after graduation from BICs. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors that influence the firm's dependence on BICs and to characterize the relationships among the identified factors. The business incubating service is a core construct of this study. It includes various activities and resources, such as offering the physical facilities, legal service, and connecting them with outside organizations. These services are extensive and take various forms. They are provided by BICs directly or indirectly. Past studies have identified various incubating services and classify them in different ways. Based on the past studies, we classify the business incubating service into three categories as mentioned above : (1) business infrastructure support, (2) direct support, and (3) networking support. The business infrastructure support is to provide the essential resources to start the business, such as physical facilities. The direct support is to offer the business resources available in the BICs, such as human, technical, and administrational resources. Finally, the indirect service was to support the resource in the outside of business incubation center. Dependence is generally defined as the degree to which a client firm needs the resources provided by the service provider in order to achieve its goals. Dependence is generated when a firm recognizes the benefits of interacting with its counterpart. Hence, the more positive outcomes a firm derives from its relationship with the partner, the more dependent on the partner the firm must inevitably become. In business incubating, as a resident firm is incubated in longer period, we can predict that her dependence on BICs would be stronger. In order to foster the independence of the incubated firms, BICs have to be able to manipulate the provision of their services to control the firms' dependence on BICs. Based on the above discussion, the research model for relationships between dependence and its affecting factors was developed. We surveyed the companies residing in BICs to test our research model. The instrument of our study was modified, in part, on the basis of previous relevant studies. For the purposes of testing reliability and validity, preliminary testing was conducted with firms that were residing in BICs and incubated by the BICs in the region of Gwangju and Jeonnam. The questionnaire was modified in accordance with the pre-test feedback. We mailed to all of the firms that had been incubated by the BICs with the help of business incubating managers of each BIC. The survey was conducted over a three week period. Gifts (of approximately ₩10,000 value) were offered to all actively participating respondents. The incubating period was reported by the business incubating managers, and it was transformed using natural logarithms. A total of 180 firms participated in the survey. However, we excluded 4 cases due to a lack of consistency using reversed items in the answers of the companies, and 176 cases were used for the analysis. We acknowledge that 176 samples may not be sufficient to conduct regression analyses with 5 research variables in our study. Each variable was measured through multiple items. We conducted an exploratory factor analysis to assess their unidimensionality. In an effort to test the construct validity of the instruments, a principal component factor analysis was conducted with Varimax rotation. The items correspond well to each singular factor, demonstrating a high degree of convergent validity. As the factor loadings for a variable (or factor) are higher than the factor loadings for the other variables, the instrument's discriminant validity is shown to be clear. Each factor was extracted as expected, which explained 70.97, 66.321, and 52.97 percent, respectively, of the total variance each with eigen values greater than 1.000. The internal consistency reliability of the variables was evaluated by computing Cronbach's alphas. The Cronbach's alpha values of the variables, which ranged from 0.717 to 0.950, were all securely over 0.700, which is satisfactory. The reliability and validity of the research variables are all, therefore, considered acceptable. The effects of dependence were assessed using a regression analysis. The Pearson correlations were calculated for the variables, measured by interval or ratio scales. Potential multicollinearity among the antecedents was evaluated prior to the multiple regression analysis, as some of the variables were significantly correlated with others (e.g., direct service and indirect service). Although several variables show the evidence of significant correlations, their tolerance values range between 0.334 and 0.613, thereby demonstrating that multicollinearity is not a likely threat to the parameter estimates. Checking some basic assumptions for the regression analyses, we decided to conduct multiple regression analyses and moderated regression analyses to test the given hypotheses. The results of the regression analyses indicate that the regression model is significant at p < 0.001 (F = 44.260), and that the predictors of the research model explain 42.6 percent of the total variance. Hypotheses 1, 2, and 3 address the relationships between the dependence of the incubated firms and the business incubating services. Business infrastructure service, direct service, and indirect service are all significantly related with dependence (β = 0.300, p < 0.001; β = 0.230, p < 0.001; β = 0.226, p < 0.001), thus supporting Hypotheses 1, 2, and 3. When the incubating period is the moderator and dependence is the dependent variable, the addition of the interaction terms with the antecedents to the regression equation yielded a significant increase in R2 (F change = 2.789, p < 0.05). In particular, direct service and indirect service exert different effects on dependence. Hence, the results support Hypotheses 5 and 6. This study provides several strategies and specific calls to action for BICs, based on our empirical findings. Business infrastructure service has more effect on the firm's dependence than the other two services. The introduction of an additional high charge rate for a graduated but allowed to stay in the BIC is a basic and legitimate condition for the BIC to control the firm's dependence. We detected the differential effects of direct and indirect services on the firm's dependence. The firms with long incubating period are more sensitive to indirect service positively, and more sensitive to direct service negatively, when assessing their levels of dependence. This implies that BICs must develop a strategy on the basis of a firm's incubating period. Last but not least, it would be valuable to discover other important variables that influence the firm's dependence in the future studies. Moreover, future studies to explain the independence of startup companies in BICs would also be valuable.

Characteristics and classification of paddy soils on the Gimje-Mangyeong plains (김제만경평야(金堤萬頃平野)의 답토양특성(沓土壤特性)과 그 분류(分類)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Shin, Yong Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.1-38
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    • 1972
  • This study, designed to establish a classification system of paddy soils and suitability groups on productivity and management of paddy land based on soil characteristics, has been made for the paddy soils on the Gimje-Mangyeong plains. The morphological, physical and chemical properties of the 15 paddy soil series found on these plains are briefly as follows: Ten soil series (Baeggu, Bongnam, Buyong, Gimje, Gongdeog, Honam, Jeonbug, Jisan, Mangyeong and Suam) have a B horizon (cambic B), two soil series (Geugrag and Hwadong) have a Bt horizon (argillic B), and three soil series (Gwanghwal, Hwagye and Sindab) have no B or Bt horizons. Uniquely, both the Bongnam and Gongdeog series contain a muck layer in the lower part of subsoil. Four soil series (Baeggu, Gongdeog, Gwanghwal and Sindab) generally are bluish gray and dark gray, and eight soil series (Bongnam, Buyong, Gimje, Honam, Jeonbug, Jisan, Mangyeong and Suam) are either gray or grayish brown. Three soil series (Geugrag, Hwadong and Hwagye), however, are partially gleyed in the surface and subsurface, but have a yellowish brown to brown subsoil or substrata. Seven soil series (Bongnam, Buyong, Geugrag, Gimje, Gongdeog, Honam and Hwadong) are of fine clayey texture, three soil series (Baeggu, Jeonbug and Jisan) belong to fine loamy and fine silty, three soil series (Gwanghwal, Mangyeong and Suam) to coarse loamy and coarse silty, and two soil series (Hwagye and Sindab) to sandy and sandy skeletal texture classes. The carbon content of the surface soil ranges from 0.29 to 2.18 percent, mostly 1.0 to 2.0 percent. The total nitrogen content of the surface soil ranges from 0.03 to 0.25 percent, showing a tendency to decrease irregularly with depth. The C/N ratio in the surface soil ranges from 4.6 to 15.5, dominantly from 8 to 10. The C/N ratio in the subsoil and substrata, however, has a wide range from 3.0 to 20.25. The soil reaction ranges from 4.5 to 8.0. All soil series except the Gwanghwal and Mangyeong series belong to the acid reaction class. The cation exchange cpacity in the surface soil ranges from 5 to 13 milliequivalents per 100 grams of soil, and in all the subsoil and substrata except those of a sandy texture, from 10 to 20 milliequivalents per 100 grams of soil. The base saturation of the soil series except Baeggu and Gongdeog is more than 60 percent. The active iron content of the surface soil ranges from 0.45 to 1.81 ppm, easily-reduceable manganese from 15 to 148 ppm, and available silica from 36 to 366 ppm. The iron and manganese are generally accumulated in a similar position (10 to 70cm. depth), and silica occurs in the same horizon with that of iron and manganese, or in the deeper horizons in the soil profile. The properties of each soil series extending from the sea shore towards the continental plains change with distance and they are related with distance (x) as follows: y(surface soil, clay content) = $$-0.2491x^2+6.0388x-1.1251$$ y(subsoil or subsurface soil, clay content) = $$-0.31646x^2+7.84818x-2.50008$$ y(surface soil, organic carbon content) = $$-0.0089x^2+0.2192x+0.1366$$ y(subsoil or subsurface soil, pH) = $$-0.0178x^2-0.04534x+8.3531$$ Soil profile development, soil color, depositional and organic layers, soil texture and soil reaction etc. are thought to be the major items that should be considered in a paddy soil classification. It was found that most of the soils belonging to the moderately well, somewhat poorly and poorly drained fine and medium textured soils and moderately deep fine textured soils over coarse materials, produce higher paddy yields in excess of 3,750 kg/ha. and most of the soils belonging to the coarse textured soils, well drained fine textured soils, moderately deep medium textured soils over coarse materials and saline soils, produce yields less than 3,750kg/ha. Soil texture of the profile, available soil depth, salinity and gleying of the surface and subsurface soils etc. seem to be the major factors determining rice yields, and these factors are considered when establishing suitability groups for paddy land. The great group, group, subgroup, family and series are proposed for the classification categories of paddy soils. The soil series is the basic category of the classification. The argillic horizon (Bt horizon) and cambic horizon (B horizon) are proposed as two diagnostic horizons of great group level for the determination of the morphological properties of soils in the classification. The specific soil characteristics considered in the group and subgroup levels are soil color of the profile (bluish gray, gray or yellowish brown), salinity (salic), depositonal (fluvic) and muck layers (mucky), and gleying of surface and subsurface soils (gleyic). The family levels are classified on the basis of soil reaction, soil texture and gravel content of the profile. The definitions are given on each classification category, diagnostic horizons and specific soil characteristics respectively. The soils on these plains are classified in eight subgroups and examined under the existing classification system. Further, the suitability group, can be divided into two major categories, suitability class and subclass. The soils within a suitability class are similar in potential productivity and limitation on use and management. Class 1 through 4 are distinguished from each other by combination of soil characteristics. Subclasses are divided from classes that have the same kind of dominant limitations such as slope(e), wettness(w), sandy(s), gravels(g), salinity(t) and non-gleying of the surface and subsurface soils(n). The above suitability classes and subclasses are examined, and the definitions are given. Seven subclasses are found on these plains for paddy soils. The classification and suitability group of 15 paddy soil series on the Gimje-Mangyeong plains may now be tabulated as follows.

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DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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