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Analysis of Trading Performance on Intelligent Trading System for Directional Trading (방향성매매를 위한 지능형 매매시스템의 투자성과분석)

  • Choi, Heung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.187-201
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    • 2011
  • KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

A Kinematical Analysis of Belle Motion on Parallel Bars (평행봉 Belle 기술동작의 운동학적 분석)

  • Kong, Tae-Ung
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2005
  • This study is to define how the difference of athletic change influence on the last regrasp after somersault in Belle movement of parallel bars. For his study, the following conclusion was produced by analysis of athletic change by means of three dimensional visual image in three athlete of nation. 1. As the picture of S1, there are total used time(2.01 sec), S3(2.17 sec) and S2(2.19 sec). In case of a short needed time, it is difficult for them to perform the remaining movement of the vertical elevating flight easily and comfortably, it is judged as performing the small movement with restrict swing. 2 In the change of body center sped by each event, it is calculated as $-89.1^{\circ}$ the narrowest in S1, $-81.96^{\circ}$ the widest and then $86.34^{\circ}$ in S3. In E3 event, average compound speed is 4.07m/s, S2 showed the fastest speed of 4.14m/s whereas S1 the narrowest angle of 3.95m/s. 3. A shoulder joint and coxa are the period of mention in E3. In E4 which was pointed out the longest vertical distance, S2 that is indicated the highest vertical height as the period of detach in parallel bars. showed -3.91m. This is regarded as a preparatory movement for dynamic performance after using effectively elastic movement of shoulder joint and coxa while easily going up with turning back movement. In the 5th phrase, long airborne time and vertical change position is showed as the start while regrasping securely air flight movement from high position. 4. In E5, a long flight time and a long vertical displacement were shown as the regrasp after somersault efficiently in high position with stability from the point of the highest peak of the center of the body. Especially, S2 is marked as a little bit long position, while S1 is reversely indicated as performing somersault and unstable motion in a low position. 5. In E3, at the point of the largest extension of the shoulder joint and hip joint the shoulder joint is largely marked in $182^{\circ}$ and the hip point $182^{\circ}$ in S2. The shoulder joint is marked at the smallest angle in $177^{\circ}$ and the hip point $176^{\circ}$ in S1. And S1 is being judged by its performance of the less self - confident motion with lessening a breath of swing. S2 makes the most use of flexion and extension of the shoulder joint and the hip joint effectively. It was performed greatly with swinging and dropping the rotary movement and the rotary inertia naturally. 6. In E6, as the point of regrasp of the upper arm in parallel bars it is recognized by the that of components of vertical and horizontal velocity stably. During this study, the insufficient thing and the study on the parallel bars at a real game later are more activated than now. If it is really used as the basic materials by means of Belle Picked Study of Super E level after Bell movement, you may perceive the technique movement previously and perform without difficulty. Especially, such technique as crucifix is quite advantageous for oriental people thanks to small body shape condition. In conclusion we will nicely prepare for our suitable environment to gradually lessen trials and errors by analyzing and studying kinematically this movement.

A Comparative Analysis of Social Commerce and Open Market Using User Reviews in Korean Mobile Commerce (사용자 리뷰를 통한 소셜커머스와 오픈마켓의 이용경험 비교분석)

  • Chae, Seung Hoon;Lim, Jay Ick;Kang, Juyoung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.53-77
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    • 2015
  • Mobile commerce provides a convenient shopping experience in which users can buy products without the constraints of time and space. Mobile commerce has already set off a mega trend in Korea. The market size is estimated at approximately 15 trillion won (KRW) for 2015, thus far. In the Korean market, social commerce and open market are key components. Social commerce has an overwhelming open market in terms of the number of users in the Korean mobile commerce market. From the point of view of the industry, quick market entry, and content curation are considered to be the major success factors, reflecting the rapid growth of social commerce in the market. However, academics' empirical research and analysis to prove the success rate of social commerce is still insufficient. Henceforward, it is to be expected that social commerce and the open market in the Korean mobile commerce will compete intensively. So it is important to conduct an empirical analysis to prove the differences in user experience between social commerce and open market. This paper is an exploratory study that shows a comparative analysis of social commerce and the open market regarding user experience, which is based on the mobile users' reviews. Firstly, this study includes a collection of approximately 10,000 user reviews of social commerce and open market listed Google play. A collection of mobile user reviews were classified into topics, such as perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use through LDA topic modeling. Then, a sentimental analysis and co-occurrence analysis on the topics of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use was conducted. The study's results demonstrated that social commerce users have a more positive experience in terms of service usefulness and convenience versus open market in the mobile commerce market. Social commerce has provided positive user experiences to mobile users in terms of service areas, like 'delivery,' 'coupon,' and 'discount,' while open market has been faced with user complaints in terms of technical problems and inconveniences like 'login error,' 'view details,' and 'stoppage.' This result has shown that social commerce has a good performance in terms of user service experience, since the aggressive marketing campaign conducted and there have been investments in building logistics infrastructure. However, the open market still has mobile optimization problems, since the open market in mobile commerce still has not resolved user complaints and inconveniences from technical problems. This study presents an exploratory research method used to analyze user experience by utilizing an empirical approach to user reviews. In contrast to previous studies, which conducted surveys to analyze user experience, this study was conducted by using empirical analysis that incorporates user reviews for reflecting users' vivid and actual experiences. Specifically, by using an LDA topic model and TAM this study presents its methodology, which shows an analysis of user reviews that are effective due to the method of dividing user reviews into service areas and technical areas from a new perspective. The methodology of this study has not only proven the differences in user experience between social commerce and open market, but also has provided a deep understanding of user experience in Korean mobile commerce. In addition, the results of this study have important implications on social commerce and open market by proving that user insights can be utilized in establishing competitive and groundbreaking strategies in the market. The limitations and research direction for follow-up studies are as follows. In a follow-up study, it will be required to design a more elaborate technique of the text analysis. This study could not clearly refine the user reviews, even though the ones online have inherent typos and mistakes. This study has proven that the user reviews are an invaluable source to analyze user experience. The methodology of this study can be expected to further expand comparative research of services using user reviews. Even at this moment, users around the world are posting their reviews about service experiences after using the mobile game, commerce, and messenger applications.

The Interpretation of a Korean Folk Tale from the Perspective of Analytical Psychology (민담 <외쪽이>의 분석심리학적 해석)

  • Ji Youn Kim
    • Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.122-168
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    • 2017
  • I tried to understand a folk tale "The half-boy" in terms of analytical psychology. In the story, a lady without children prayed to the Buddha. The white old man came and gave three fishes, but the cat ate half of it. So, she ate two and a half. She gave birth to two perfect sons. The third son had one arm, one leg, and one eye. They grew well. Brothers went to take the civil service examinations, and the half-boy followed. But two brothers did not like the half-boy coming along. So, brothers tied the half-boy to the rocks and trees, and he picked them up with force and gave them down to the yard of the house. And the half-boy followed his brothers again, and brothers tied him with kudzu and put him in front of the tiger. The half-boy won the tiger by betting with cutting kudzu. The half-boy stripped off the tiger's skin. The host coveted the tiger skin and they played with janggi. The half-boy won the game and was permitted to take host's daughter. The half-boy went with a string, a drum, a flea, and a bedbug. He teased host's people with these. The half-boy brought a virgin and lived well. "The Half-Boy" folktale is an old story spread throughout the country. There are similar stories in India and Africa. Unilateral figures are universally distributed archetypal images. In numerous cultures gods and spirits are being portrayed as unilateral figures. In the creation mythology, half-figure beings have immortality. In Indonesian and African folk tales, the half-born boy goes to heaven and merges with its half and becomes perfect. Some of one-sided spirits are harmful to humans but some of one-sided birds, chickens, and spirits are helpful to people. Sometimes half being is a cultural hero who steals grain from heaven or gets some advice how to use bamboo. There are stories that half body becomes a whole body afterwards. But in this folktale and most of the similar folktales, half-figure does not change and maintains half-figure to the end. And as a half-figure he does various great things and marries a virgin. The half-boy symbolizes a psychic experience born in the unconscious. The unconscious contents may seem strange and weird at first and the collective consciousness does not want to accept them. But the unconscious exerts greater power and brings vitality and creativity to consciousness. This folk tale seems to have compensated for the stubborn collective consciousness of our society, which was a Confucian class society. It also allows people to change their attitude toward disabled people and recognize strengths and creativity of the handicapped.

A Study on the Management of Manhwa Contents Records and Archives (만화기록 관리 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Seon Mi;Kim, Ik Han
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.28
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    • pp.35-81
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    • 2011
  • Manhwa is a mass media (to expose all faces of an era such as politics, society, cultures, etc with the methodology of irony, parody, etc). Since the Manhwa records is primary culture infrastructure, it can create the high value-added industry by connecting with fancy, character, game, movie, drama, theme park, advertising business. However, due to lack of active and systematic aquisition system, as precious Manhwa manuscript is being lost every year and the contents hard to preserve such as Manhwa content in the form of electronic records are increasing, the countermeasure of Manhwa contents management is needed desperately. In this study, based on these perceptions, the need of Manhwa records management is examined, and the characteristics and the components of Manhwa records were analyzed. And at the same time, the functions of record management process reflecting the characteristics of Manhwa records were extracted by analyzing various cases of overseas Cartoon Archives. And then, the framework of record-keeping regime was segmented into each of acquisition management service areas and the general Manhwa records archiving strategy, which manages the Manhwa contents records, was established and suggested. The acquired Manhwa content records will secure the context among records and warrant the preservation of records and provide diverse access points by reflecting multi classification and multi-level descriptive element. The Manhwa records completed the intellectual arrangement will be preserved after the conservation in an environment equipped with preservation facilities or preserved using digital format in case of electronic records or when there is potential risk of damaging the records. Since the purpose of the Manhwa records is to use them, the information may be provided to diverse classes of users through the exhibition, the distribution, and the development of archival information content. Since the term of "Manhwa records" is unfamiliar yet and almost no study has been conducted in the perspective of records management, it will be the limit of this study only presenting acquisition strategy, management and service strategy of Manhwa contents and suggesting simple examples. However, if Manhwa records management strategy are possibly introduced practically to Manhwa manuscript repositories through archival approach, it will allow systematic acquisition, preservation, arrangement of Manhwa records and will contribute greatly to form a foundation for future Korean culture contents management.

Problems in the field of maternal and child health care and its improvement in rural Korea (우리나라 농촌(農村)의 모자보건(母子保健)의 문제점(問題點)과 개선방안(改善方案))

  • Lee, Sung-Kwan
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 1976
  • Introduction Recently, changes in the patterns and concepts of maternity care, in both developing and developed countries have been accelerating. An outstanding development in this field is the number of deliveries taking place in hospitals or maternity centers. In Korea, however, more than 90% of deliveries are carried out at home with the help of untrained relatives or even without helpers. It is estimated that less than 10% of deliveries are assisted by professional persons such as a physician or a midwife. Taking into account the shortage of professional person i11 rural Korea, it is difficult to expect widespread prenatal, postnatal, and delivery care by professional persons in the near future, It is unrealistic, therefore, to expect rapid development of MCH care by professional persons in rural Korea due to economic and sociological reasons. Given these conditions. it is reasonable that an educated village women could used as a "maternity aid", serving simple and technically easy roles in the MCH field, if we could give such a women incentive to do so. The midwife and physician are assigned difficult problems in the MCH field which could not be solved by the village worker. However, with the application of the village worker system, we could expect to improve maternal and child hoalth through the replacement of untrained relatives as birth attendants with educated and trained maternity aides. We hope that this system will be a way of improving MCH care, which is only one part of the general health services offered at the local health centre level. Problems of MCH in rural Korea The field of MCH is not only the weakest point in the medical field in our country hut it has also dropped behind other developing countries. Regarding the knowledge about pregnancy and delivery, a large proportion of our respondents reported having only a little knowledge, while 29% reported that they had "sufficient" knowledge. The average number of pregnancies among women residing in rural areas was 4.3 while the rate of women with 5 or more pregnancies among general women and women who terminated childbearing were 43 and 80% respectively. The rate of unwanted pregnancy among general women was 19.7%. The total rate for complications during pregnancy was 15.4%, toxemia being the major complication. The rate of pregnant women with chronic disease was 7%. Regarding the interval of pregnancy, the rates of pregnancy within 12 months and within 36 months after last delivery were 9 and 49% respectively. Induced abortion has been increasing in rural areas, being as high as 30-50% in some locations. The maternal death rate was shown 10 times higher than in developed countries (35/10,000 live births). Prenatal care Most women had no consultation with a physician during the prenatal period. Of those women who did have prenatal care, the majority (63%) received such care only 1 or 2 times throughout the entire period of pregnancy. Also, in 80% of these women the first visit Game after 4 months of gestation. Delivery conditions This field is lagging behind other public health problems in our country. Namely, more than 95% of the women deliveried their baby at home, and delivery attendance by a professional person occurred only 11% of the time. Attendance rate by laymen was 78% while those receiving no care at all was 16%. For instruments used to cut the umbilical corn, sterilized scissors were used by 19%, non-sterilized scissors by 63% and 16% used sickles. Regarding delivery sheets, the rate of use of clean sheets was only 10%, unclean sheets, vinyl and papers 72%, and without sheets, 18%. The main reason for not using a hospital as a place of delivery was that the women felt they did not need it as they had previously experience easy deliveries outside hospitals. Difficult delivery composed about 5% of the total. Child health The main food for infants (95%) was breast milk. Regarding weaning time, the rates within one year, up to one and half, two, three and more than three years were 28,43,60,81 and 91% respectively, and even after the next pregnancy still continued lactation. The vaccination of children is the only service for child health in rural Korea. As shown in the Table, the rates of all kinds of vaccination were very low and insufficient. Infant death rate was 42 per 1,000 live births. Most of the deaths were caused by preventable diseases. Death of infants within the neonatal period was 83% meaning that deaths from communicable diseases decreased remarkably after that time. Infant deaths which occurred without medical care was 52%. Methods of improvement in the MCH field 1. Through the activities of village health workers (VHW) to detect pregnant women by home visiting and. after registration. visiting once a month to observe any abnormalities in pregnant women. If they find warning signs of abnormalities. they refer them to the public health nurse or midwife. Sterilized delivery kits were distributed to the expected mother 2 weeks prior to expected date of delivery by the VHW. If a delivery was expected to be difficult, then the VHW took the mother to a physician or call a physician to help after birth, the VHW visits the mother and baby to confirm health and to recommend the baby be given proper vaccination. 2. Through the midwife or public health nurse (aid nurse) Examination of pregnant women who are referred by the VHW to confirm abnormalities and to treat them. If the midwife or aid nurse could not solve the problems, they refer the pregnant women to the OB-GY specialist. The midwife and PHN will attend in the cases of normal deliveries and they help in the birth. The PHN will conduct vaccination for all infants and children under 5, years old. 3. The Physician will help only in those cases referred to him by the PHN or VHW. However, the physician should examine all pregnant women at least three times during their pregnancy. First, the physician will identify the pregnancy and conduct general physical examination to confirm any chronic disease that might disturb the continuity of the pregnancy. Second, if the pregnant woman shows any abnormalities the physician must examine and treat. Third, at 9 or 10 months of gestation (after sitting of the baby) the physician should examine the position of the fetus and measure the pelvis to recommend institutional delivery of those who are expected to have a difficult delivery. And of course. the medical care of both the mother and the infants are responsible of the physician. Overall, large areas of the field of MCH would be served by the VHW, PHN, or midwife so the physician is needed only as a parttime worker.

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