• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty of demand

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Evaluation of conceptual rainfall-runoff models for different flow regimes and development of ensemble model (개념적 강우유출 모형의 유량구간별 적합성 평가 및 앙상블 모델 구축)

  • Yu, Jae-Ung;Park, Moon-Hyung;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.105-119
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    • 2021
  • An increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and droughts has been recently observed due to an increase in climate variability. Especially, land-use change associated with industrial structure and urbanization has led to an imbalance between water supply and demand, acting as a constraint in water resource management. Accurate rainfall-runoff analysis plays a critical role in evaluating water availability in the water budget analysis. This study aimed to explore various continuous rainfall-runoff models over the Soyanggang dam watershed. Moreover, the ensemble modeling framework combining multiple models was introduced to present scenarios on streamflow considering uncertainties. In the ensemble modeling framework, rainfall-runoff models with fewer parameters are generally preferred for effective regionalization. In this study, more than 40 continuous rainfall-runoff models were applied to the Soyanggang dam watershed, and nine rainfall-runoff models were primarily selected using different goodness-of-fit measures. This study confirmed that the ensemble model showed better performance than the individual model over different flow regimes.

Juror Judgmental Bias in Korean Jury Trial: Sentencing Demand and Anchoring Effect (사법적 의사결정시 나타나는 배심원 판단편향: 검사구형량의 정박효과)

  • Lee, Yumi;Cho, Young Il
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.329-347
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    • 2020
  • When a person suggests an estimate under uncertainty, (s)he tend to rely on the information and number provided in advance. As a result, their final estimate would be assimilated to the initial value. This phenomenon is called "anchoring effect". The present research examined anchoring effects observed in law courts. Sentencing decision of jurors can be influenced by the sentence demanded by the prosecutor. Specifically, this study demonstrated the condition in which anchoring effect would be stronger and practical solutions for lowering anchoring effect. Study 1 demonstrated whether gravity of criminal cases and levels of anchor influenced anchoring effects. As expected, anchoring effect was stronger in a heavier criminal case than in a lighter one. When a low anchor was provided in a lighter case, anchoring effect was stronger compared to when a high anchor was provided. Study 2 examined how emotion affects anchoring effects. The results showed that anchoring effect appeared to be significantly stronger with feelings of anger than of sadness. Study 3 examined the solution for reducing anchoring effects in a court. When activation of selective-accessibility model was prevented, anchoring effects significantly decreased. These results can help solve the problems about juror judgmental bias and contribute to the development of Korean jury trial.

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Environmental Direct Payments and Water Emissions (친환경직불제에 따른 농작 선택과 수질오염)

  • Kim, Ho-Seok
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.61-81
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    • 2007
  • Types of agricultural policy can be catagorized into two general cases: price and income supports. Income supports are any government program designed to provide farmers with higher incomes than they would receive otherwise. These direct cash payments to farmers are known as "deficiency payment" or "direct payment" because they compensate the farmer for the failure of the market to provide farmers with adequate prices. The direct payment to environment-friendly agriculture is a form of income supports for the agriculture production using less pesticides and chemical fertilizers. Because no significant regulation exists on the use of fertilizers substituting chemical fertilizers for crop, the role of the payment on reducing environmental impacts of agriculture is not entirely clear. This uncertainty is likely to be particularly severe in the case that farmers with low-quality land showing greater demand for fertiliser have an incentive to transition to environment-friendly agriculture. The paper shows the case of the current payment system in Korea.

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Evaluation of Future Water Deficit for Anseong River Basin Under Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 안성천 유역의 미래 물 부족량 평가)

  • Lee, Dae Wung;Jung, Jaewon;Hong, Seung Jin;Han, Daegun;Joo, Hong Jun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2017
  • The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about $0.85^{\circ}C$ since 1880 due to the global warming. The temperature increase affects hydrologic phenomenon and so the world has been suffered from natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Therefore, especially, in the aspect of water deficit, we may require the accurate prediction of water demand considering the uncertainty of climate in order to establish water resources planning and to ensure safe water supply for the future. To do this, the study evaluated future water balance and water deficit under the climate change for Anseong river basin in Korea. The future rainfall was simulated using RCP 8.5 climate change scenario and the runoff was estimated through the SLURP model which is a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the basin. Scenario and network for the water balance analysis in sub-basins of Anseong river basin were established through K-WEAP model. And the water demand for the future was estimated by the linear regression equation using amounts of water uses(domestic water use, industrial water use, and agricultural water use) calculated by historical data (1965 to 2011). As the result of water balance analysis, we confirmed that the domestic and industrial water uses will be increased in the future because of population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate change due to global warming. However, the agricultural water use will be gradually decreased. Totally, we had shown that the water deficit problem will be critical in the future in Anseong river basin. Therefore, as the case study, we suggested two alternatives of pumping station construction and restriction of water use for solving the water deficit problem in the basin.

A Study on the Effects of Meterological Factors on the Distribution of Agricultural Products: Focused on the Distribution of Chinese Cabbages (기상요인이 농산물 유통에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 배추 유통 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyunjoung;Hong, Jinhwan
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.59-83
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    • 2012
  • Agriculture is a primary industry that influenced by the weather or meterological factors more than other industry. Global warming and worldwide climate changes, and unusual weather phenomena are fatal in agricultural industry and human life. Therefore, many previous studies have been made to find the relationship between weather and the productivity of agriculture. Meterological factors also influence on the distribution of agricultural product. For example, price of agricultural product is determined in the market, and also influenced by the weather of the market. However, there is only a few study was made to find this link. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of meterological factors on the distribution of agricultural products, focusing on the distribution of chinese cabbages. Chinese cabbage is a main ingredient of Kimchi, and basic essential vegetable in Korean dinner table. However, the production of chinese cabbages is influenced by weather and very fluctuating so that the variation of its price is so unstable. Therefore, both consumers and farmers do not feel comfortable at the unstable price of chinese cabbages. In this study, we analyze the real transaction data of chinese cabbage in wholesale markets and meterological factors depending on the variety and geography. We collect and analyze data of meterological factors such as temperatures, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall, snowfall, wind speed, insolation, sunshine duration in producing and consuming region of chinese cabbages. The result of this study shows that the meterological factors such as temperature and humidity significantly influence on the volume and price of chinese cabbage transaction in wholesale market. Especially, the weather of consuming region has greater correlation effects on transaction than that of producing region in all types of chinese cabbages. Among the whole agricultural lifecycle of chinese cabbages, 'seeding - harvest - shipment - wholesale', meterological factors such as temperature and rainfall in shipment and wholesale period are significantly correlated with transaction volume and price of crops. Based on the result of correlation analysis, we make a regression analysis to verify the meterological factors' effects on the volume and price of chines cabbage transaction in wholesale market. The results of stepwise regression analysis are shown in

    and
    . The type of chinese cabbages are categorized by 5 types, i.e. alpine, gimjang for winter, spring, summer, and winter crop, and all of the regression models are shown significant relationship. In addition, meterological factors in shipment and wholesale period are entered more in regression model than those in seeding and harvest period. This result implies that weather in consuming region is also important in the distribution of chinese cabbages. Based on the result of this study, we find several implications and recommendations for policy makers of agricultural product distribution. The goal of agricultural product distribution policy is to insure proper price and production cost for farmers and provide proper price and quality, and stable supply for consumers. Therefore, coping with the uncertainty of weather is very essential to make a fruitful effect of the policy. In reality, very big part of consumer price of chinese cabbage is made up of the margin of intermediaries, because they take the risk. In addition, policy makers make efforts for farmers to utilize AWIS (Agricultural Weather Information System). In order to do that, it should integrate the relevant information including distribution and marketing as well as production. Offering a consulting service to farmers about weather management is also expected to be a good option in agriculture and weather industry. Reflecting on the result of this study, the distribution authorities can offer the guideline for the timing and volume of harvest, and it is expected to contribute to the stable equilibrium of supply and demand of agricultural products.

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  • Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

    • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.24 no.4
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      • pp.33-49
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      • 2018
    • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

    Improvement of Personal Information Protection Laws in the era of the 4th industrial revolution (4차 산업혁명 시대의 개인정보보호법제 개선방안)

    • Choi, Kyoung-jin
      • Journal of Legislation Research
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      • no.53
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      • pp.177-211
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      • 2017
    • In the course of the emergence and development of new ICT technologies and services such as Big Data, Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence, the future will change by these new innovations in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The future of this fourth industrial revolution will change and our future will be data-based society or economy. Since there is personal information at the center of it, the development of the economy through the utilization of personal information will depend on how to make the personal information protection laws. In Korea, which is trying to lead the 4th industrial revolution, it is a legal interest that can not give up the use of personal information, and also it is an important legal benefit that can not give up the personal interests of individuals who want to protect from personal information. Therefore, it is necessary to change the law on personal information protection in a rational way to harmonize the two. In this regard, this article discusses the problems of duplication and incompatibility of the personal information protection law, the scope of application of the personal information protection law and the uncertainty of the judgment standard, the lack of flexibility responding to the demand for the use of reasonable personal information, And there is a problem of reverse discrimination against domestic area compared to the regulated blind spot in foreign countries. In order to solve these problems and to improve the legislation of personal information protection in the era of the fourth industrial revolution, we proposed to consider both personal information protection and safe use by improving the purpose and regulation direction of the personal information protection law. The balance and harmony between the systematical maintenance of the personal information protection legislation and laws and regulations were also set as important directions. It is pointed out that the establishment of rational judgment criteria and the legislative review to clarify it are necessary for the constantly controversial personal information definition regulation and the method of allowing anonymization information as the intermediate domain. In addition to the legislative review for the legitimate and non-invasive use of personal information, there is a need to improve the collective consent system for collecting personal information to differentiate the subject and to improve the legislation to ensure the effectiveness of the regulation on the movement of personal information between countries. In addition to the issues discussed in this article, there may be a number of challenges, but overall, the protection and use of personal information should be harmonized while maintaining the direction indicated above.

    Change Analysis of Aboveground Forest Carbon Stocks According to the Land Cover Change Using Multi-Temporal Landsat TM Images and Machine Learning Algorithms (다시기 Landsat TM 영상과 기계학습을 이용한 토지피복변화에 따른 산림탄소저장량 변화 분석)

    • LEE, Jung-Hee;IM, Jung-Ho;KIM, Kyoung-Min;HEO, Joon
      • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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      • v.18 no.4
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      • pp.81-99
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      • 2015
    • The acceleration of global warming has required better understanding of carbon cycles over local and regional areas such as the Korean peninsula. Since forests serve as a carbon sink, which stores a large amount of terrestrial carbon, there has been a demand to accurately estimate such forest carbon sequestration. In Korea, the National Forest Inventory(NFI) has been used to estimate the forest carbon stocks based on the amount of growing stocks per hectare measured at sampled location. However, as such data are based on point(i.e., plot) measurements, it is difficult to identify spatial distribution of forest carbon stocks. This study focuses on urban areas, which have limited number of NFI samples and have shown rapid land cover change, to estimate grid-based forest carbon stocks based on UNFCCC Approach 3 and Tier 3. Land cover change and forest carbon stocks were estimated using Landsat 5 TM data acquired in 1991, 1992, 2010, and 2011, high resolution airborne images, and the 3rd, 5th~6th NFI data. Machine learning techniques(i.e., random forest and support vector machines/regression) were used for land cover change classification and forest carbon stock estimation. Forest carbon stocks were estimated using reflectance, band ratios, vegetation indices, and topographical indices. Results showed that 33.23tonC/ha of carbon was sequestrated on the unchanged forest areas between 1991 and 2010, while 36.83 tonC/ha of carbon was sequestrated on the areas changed from other land-use types to forests. A total of 7.35 tonC/ha of carbon was released on the areas changed from forests to other land-use types. This study was a good chance to understand the quantitative forest carbon stock change according to the land cover change. Moreover the result of this study can contribute to the effective forest management.


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