• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty of demand

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A Model Management Framework for Supporting Departmental Collaborative Work (부서간 협동적 작업을 지원하는 모형관리 체계의 개발)

  • Huh, Soon-Young;Kim, Hyung-Min
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.51-69
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    • 2000
  • Recently, as business problems become more complicated and require more precise quantitative results, large-scale model management systems are increasingly in demand for supporting the decision-making activities. In addition, as distributed computing over networks gains popularity, departmental computing systems are gradually adopted in an organization to facilitate collaboration of geographically dispersed multiple departments. In departmental collaborative model management systems, multiple departments share common models but approach them with different user-views depending on their departmental needs. Moreover, the shared models become evolved as their structures and the corresponding data sets change due to the dynamic nature of the operating environment and the inherent uncertainty associated with the problems. In such capacity, providing the multiple departmental users with synchronized and consistent views of the models is important to improve the overall productivity. In this paper, we propose a collaborative model management framework for coordinating model change and automatic user-view update in a departmental computing environment. To do so, we describes changes in the model and their effects occurred in departmental model management environments and identifies the constructs and processes for maintaining the consistency between a shared model and its departmental user-views. Especially, in this framework, generic model concept was adopted for accommodating diverse mathematical models in a uniform way in a modelbase and object-oriented database management systems(ODBMS) for combining the model management constructs and automatic user-view update mechanisms in a single formalism. A prototype object-oriented modeling environment was developed using an ODBMS called ObjectStore and $C^{++}$ programming language on Windows NT.

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Optimal Design of the Nuclear Steam Generator Digital Water Level Control System (증기발생기 디지탈 수위조절 시스템의 최적설계)

  • Lee, Yoon-Joon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.32-40
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    • 1994
  • A digital control system for the steam generator oater level control is developed using the optimal control technique. To describe the more realistic situation, a feedwater valve actuator of the first order lag is included in the overall control system. The optimal gains are obtained by the LQ method which imposes the constraints on the feedwater valve motion as well as on the deviation between the input demand signal and the output feedwater. Developed also is a Kalman observer on account of the flow measurement uncertainty at low power. And a digital controller on the feedback loop is designed which makes the system maintain the same stability margins for all power ranges. The simulation results show that the optimal digital system has good control characteristics despite the adverse dynamics of the steam generator at low power.

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A Study on the Financial Strength of Households on House Investment Demand (가계 재무건전성이 주택투자수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Rho, Sang-Youn;Yoon, Bo-Hyun;Choi, Young-Min
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - This study investigates the following two issues. First, we attempt to find the important determinants of housing investment and to identify their significance rank using survey panel data. Recently, the expansion of global uncertainty in the real estate market has directly and indirectly influenced the Korean housing market; households demonstrate a sensitive reaction to changes in that market. Therefore, this study aims to draw conclusions from understanding how the impact of financial strength of the household is related to house investment. Second, we attempt to verify the effectiveness of diverse indices of financial strength such as DTI, LTV, and PIR as measures to monitor the housing market. In the continuous housing market recession after the global crisis, the government places top priority on residence stability. However, the government still imposes forceful restraints on indices of financial strength. We believe this study verifies the utility of these regulations when used in the housing market. Research design, data, and methodology - The data source for this study is the "National Survey of Tax and Benefit" from 2007 (1st) to 2011 (5th) by the Korea Institute of Public Finance. Based on this survey data, we use panel data of 3,838 households that have been surveyed continuously for 5 years. We sort the base variables according to relevance of house investment criteria using the decision tree model (DTM), which is the standard decision-making model for data-mining techniques. The DTM method is known as a powerful methodology to identify contributory variables for predictive power. In addition, we analyze how important explanatory variables and the financial strength index of households affect housing investment with the binary logistic multi-regressive model. Based on the analyses, we conclude that the financial strength index has a significant role in house investment demand. Results - The results of this research are as follows: 1) The determinants of housing investment are age, consumption expenditures, income, total assets, rent deposit, housing price, habits satisfaction, housing scale, number of household members, and debt related to housing. 2) The impact power of these determinants has changed more or less annually due to economic situations and housing market conditions. The level of consumption expenditure and income are the main determinants before 2009; however, the determinants of housing investment changed to indices of the financial strength of households, i.e., DTI, LTV, and PIR, after 2009. 3) Most of all, since 2009, housing loans has been a more important variable than the level of consumption in making housing market decisions. Conclusions - The results of this research show that sound financing of households has a stronger effect on housing investment than reduced consumption expenditures. At the same time, the key indices that must be monitored by the government under economic emergency conditions differ from those requiring monitoring under normal market conditions; therefore, political indices to encourage and promote the housing market must be divided based on market conditions.

Business Ecosystem-focused Commercialization Strategy for Real-time Monitoring and Detection Technology for Landslides (실시간 산사태 모니터링 및 탐지기술에 대한 비즈니스 생태계 기반 기술사업화 전략 연구)

  • Sawng, Yeong-Wha;Lim, Dong-Hyun;Chae, Byung-Gon;Choi, Junghae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.223-233
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    • 2016
  • This study establishes a commercialization strategy for technology that can monitor and detect landslides in real time. An effective commercialization strategy was sought through both qualitative and quantitative analyses. The qualitative analysis considered the business environment in detail, while the quantitative analysis examined technologically strong and weak areas by visualizing the links between IPC (International Patent Classification) code structure and patent applicants. The results from both analyses are considered together, with particular attention paid to the business environment. The resulting integrated analysis comprehensively explores the degree of technological development and the current state of real-time monitoring and detection technology for landslides. The integrated analysis identified complementary assets in the business environment, as there is strong development and many research entities in this area. This suggests positive reinforcement for commercialization with two sub-strategies: (1) exploring demand with complementary assets, and (2) providing technology information for explored demand, which should facilitate successful commercialization. Exploiting this positive reinforcement for technology commercialization could reduce the high uncertainty of the technology and the market, and thus increase the probability of successful commercialization. It is also expected to contribute to long-term success by strengthening collaboration between the supply and demand sides.

Estimates of Time-varying Values of Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign (첨두 및 비첨두시 VMS 교통정보의 가치 변화 연구)

  • Rhee, Kyoung-Ah;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2012
  • The benefit of traffic information on variable message sign can be divided into two. At the public level, the benefit of ATIS is the travel time saving, which is not only induced from ATIS, but also mixed with that of ATMS. In the economic appraisal of ITS, the benefit of ATIS has so far been regarded as the derived benefit from ATMS. At the user level, the benefit of ATIS is reduced driver uncertainty through the forward traffic status information. User can benefit from the information on VMS and therefore may have the willingness to pay for it. Recently attempt to qualify the value of information on VMS was increased, but there was a danger of distorting or over-estimates of the ATIS benefit because the related studies didn't consider the time-dependent attributes of traffic information and provided the single value. Estimates of the time-varying value should be needed for a rigorous economic appraisal of ATIS. In this study, we varied the value of information on VMS according to peak and non peak trip and verified the hypothesis that time-varying of value was statistically significant.

Impact of National Culture on Service Quality Evaluations : Comparison of Korea and Anglo-Saxon Countries (국가문화가 서비스품질의 평가에 미치는 영향 : 한국과 영·미권 국가의 비교)

  • Nam, Sung-Jip
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The objective of this research is to investigate whether national culture influences consumers' service evaluations. The services industry is receiving increasing attention from academia and practitioners as its position grows in global markets. Standardization or localization is a traditional managerial decision in global business. As the boundaries of services expand across national borders, firms are required to decide whether to standardize services or adjust to local needs. Though it is imperative to reflect global perspectives in marketing theories, these perspectives are mostly based on Western conceptualization of the world. Through a comparison of consumer groups from two culturally remote countries, service quality evaluation mechanisms are examined based on similar stimuli. The study tries to expand service marketing perspectives across national borders. Research design, data, and methodology - Eastern and Western countries are known to be culturally distinct. One Eastern and one Western country were chosen: an Anglo-Saxon country (the U.S., England, and Australia) and South Korea. In Hofstede's cultural dimensions, the differences between the two are pronounced. The Anglo-Saxon based countries share many similarities. Samples of the same sites are targeted. Questionnaires using a service quality scale (SERVQUAL) and a customer satisfaction scale were distributed. Utilizing Hofstede's typology of culture, the service evaluation mechanisms of the respondents from the two groups are evaluated. Three hypotheses are proposed from the review of the literature. These are service evaluation habits, importance of service quality dimensions for the individualistic/collectivistic countries, and strong/weak uncertainty avoidance cultures. Consumers from the individualistic countries are considered to care about themselves and demand a higher level of responsiveness and assurance. On the other hand, consumers from high uncertainty avoidance cultures are assumed to rely more on tangible questions of service quality, as these are the only predictable service quality indicators. A t-test and regression analysis are applied to validate the constructs. Results - The respondents from the Anglo-Saxon countries are more generous on service evaluations than Koreans. Researchers have indicated that Americans tend to give higher service evolution scores than European, Mexican, and Korean counterparts. The tendency is the same here. The sample from Anglo-Saxon countries demonstrated higher service evaluation scores on every dimension of SERVQUAL. For the second hypothesis, the respondents from the collectivistic culture rely less on core service dimensions (assurance and responsiveness) due to their tendency to place more value on group harmony than individual interest. However, the third hypothesis was not validated. Conclusions - The study attempted to expand the scope of service marketing to reflect cross-national perspectives. Service quality is known to have a strong influence on customer satisfaction and loyalty behavior. However, this research demonstrated that individuals from different cultural territories respond heterogeneously to the same stimuli. Scholars argue that national cultures are main factors in such deviated behavior. Scholars and global managers should be aware of differences in consumer value judgment mechanisms such as satisfaction, expectations, and perceptions.

Development of a Location Data Management System for Mass Moving Objects (대용량 이동 객체 위치 데이타 관리 시스템의 개발)

  • Kim, Dong-Oh;Ju, Sung-Wan;Jang, In-Sung;Han, Ki-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.7 no.1 s.13
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2005
  • Recently, the wireless positioning techniques and mobile computing techniques were developed with rapidly to use location data of moving objects. Also, the demand for LBS(Location Based Services) which uses location data of moving objects is increasing rapidly. In order to support various LBS, a system that can store and retrieve location data of moving objects efficiently is required necessarily. The more the number of moving objects is numerous and the more periodical sampling of locations is frequent, the more location data of moving objects become very large. Hence the system should be able to efficiently manage mass location data, support various spatio-temporal queries for LBS, and solve the uncertainty problem of moving objects. Therefore, in this paper, we presented a hash technique, a clustering technique and a trajectory search technique to manage location data of moving objects efficiently And, we have developed a Mass Moving Object Location Data Management System, which is a disk-based system, that can store and retrieve location data of mass moving objects efficiently and support the query for spatio-temporal data and the past location data with uncertainty. By analying the performance of the Mass Moving Object Locations Management system and the SQL-Server, we can find that the performance of our system for storing and retrieving location data of moving objects was about 5% and 300% better than the SQL-Server, repectively.

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Analysis of Intrinsic Patterns of Time Series Based on Chaos Theory: Focusing on Roulette and KOSPI200 Index Future (카오스 이론 기반 시계열의 내재적 패턴분석: 룰렛과 KOSPI200 지수선물 데이터 대상)

  • Lee, HeeChul;Kim, HongGon;Kim, Hee-Woong
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2021
  • As a large amount of data is produced in each industry, a number of time series pattern prediction studies are being conducted to make quick business decisions. However, there is a limit to predicting specific patterns in nonlinear time series data due to the uncertainty inherent in the data, and there are difficulties in making strategic decisions in corporate management. In addition, in recent decades, various studies have been conducted on data such as demand/supply and financial markets that are suitable for industrial purposes to predict time series data of irregular random walk models, but predict specific rules and achieve sustainable corporate objectives There are difficulties. In this study, the prediction results were compared and analyzed using the Chaos analysis method for roulette data and financial market data, and meaningful results were derived. And, this study confirmed that chaos analysis is useful for finding a new method in analyzing time series data. By comparing and analyzing the characteristics of roulette games with the time series of Korean stock index future, it was derived that predictive power can be improved if the trend is confirmed, and it is meaningful in determining whether nonlinear time series data with high uncertainty have a specific pattern.

Investigating the Monetary Value of Bus Arrival Time Information (실시간 버스도착정보의 가치 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Bin, Mi-Young;Kim, Hyo-Bin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.6 s.84
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 2005
  • Real-time bus arrival information within the Bus Information System (BIS) is an invaluable resource for users that demand accurate and up-to-date bus headway information while waiting at a bus stop. The associated benefits of such a system come in two folds, that is to 1) resolve the psychological uncertainty caused by the lack of real-time bus arrival information and 2) empower the user waiting at bus stops with the ability to reliably coordinate various tasks and errands, such as a quick trip into a convenience store or restroom without fear of missing a bus pick-up. This paper discusses the appropriate methodology with which to measure the economic value of reliable bus arrival information, with particular emphasis on the psychological uncertainty in users associated with the lack of real-time headway information at bus stops. Data regarding bus transit users' willingness to pay for such a service is obtained through questionnaire surveys, and the Contingent Valuation Method is used to analyze and derive the associated economic value. Our findings indicate the monetary value associated with a real-time bus arrival information system is approximately 132.5 won/min at the 0.3 significance level.

Integrated Broiler Production System - As a Means of Stabilizing Whole Industry with Particular Reference to U.S. Experience - (브로일러계열화 생산조직에 관한 고찰 - 미국의 예를 중심으로 -)

  • 박영인
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 1979
  • The basic problem of the broiler industry is that of fluctuating prices, mainly thanks to unstable supply of and inelastic demand for products as usually indicated as a peculiarity of agricultural commodities. This particularly brings the producer to a great economic risk, because he has to sell products under the condition of pure competition, whereas others from whom he has to buy deal under the condition of oligopoly or even monopoly. Therefore, producers economic position is generally placed in the worst comparing others dealing with, which results in unbalanced economic status of elements involved in broiler operation and further obstruction of industry development as a whole. A certain type of business coordination to overcome such a problem should be measured in order to improve the efficiency of entire operation and thus assure the balanced industry development. The concept of the economic integration developed in modern business system had been adapted to U.S. poultry industry which became common later around the world as a means of stabilizing producers price and whole industry as well. There are two main typos of integration; horizontal and vertical The former refers to the general grouping of similar business units, eg. a hatchery tying with other hatchery, while the latter refers to the knitting together of two or more stages of economic activities, eg. tying together among units of hatching, fled milling, production, processing and marketing. By having the industry integrated, risk and uncertainty involved in various stages of operation could be diversified. The typo of integrating contract between producers and integrators include the share of profits, flat fee payment, feed conversion payment and salary basis. In the U.S., extensive changes in production, processing, and marketing during the last few decades have changed the thicken broiler industry from one of small, widely scattered farms to one that is largo, concentrated and efficient. More than 99 percent of all broilers produced are grown under contract and by integrated firms which vary in size of operation and complexity. About 84 percent of all production is concentrated in 10 States. Some of the other factors ;hat contributed to these choses arc costs, energy use, prices, processing, marketing and demand. No integrated broiler production system has yet been applied in Korea's poultry industry, thus all stages all broiler operation run independently seeking for its own profit. Consequently, producers price fluctuate very widely around the year even more than 50 percent in a few months. This also leads to disadvantages of material supplies, processors and distributors and enforce the industry unstable. The current economic environment in Korea seems that the time for broiler integration comes and as an ideal integrator, feed millers, food processors and producers group may be considered.

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