• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.342-347
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• 2009

고장모드, 영향 및 임계분석(FMECA)은 시스템의 구성요소가 갖는 잠재적인 고장모드와 각 고장모드가 시스템에 미치는 영향을 평가하는 도구로 활용된다. 일반적으로 FMECA는 관련 전문가들의 의견에 따라 고장모드의 심각도와 치명도를 평가하여 이를 위험도 매트릭스의 양축으로 나타냄으로써 중요한 고장모드에 대한 분석을 수행한다. 그러나 이러한 절차는 평가가 전문가의 주관에 의해 이루어져 결과에 불확실성이 포함될 수밖에 없다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 최소절단집(MCS)와 퍼지이론을 이용한 새로운 FMECA 절차를 제안한다. 심각도 평가에 있어서는 MCS를 이용함으로써 객관적인 구조적 중요도를 평가할 수 있게 하였고, 치병도의 평가에서는 설비의 대표적인 고장률을 이용하였다. 그리고 두 지수를 종합하기 위해 퍼지 전문가 시스템을 구성하여 종합적인 위험도를 평가하였다.

• 한국인공지능학회지
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2023

This paper presents a comprehensive scheme for assessing the importance of multiple microgrids (MGs) network that includes distributed energy resources (DERs), renewable energy systems (RESs), and energy storage system (ESS) facilities. Due to the uncertainty of severe weather, large-scale cascading failures are inevitable in energy networks. making the assessment of the structural vulnerability of the energy network an attractive research theme. This attention has led to the identification of the importance of measuring energy nodes. In multiple MG networks, the energy nodes are regarded as one MG. This paper presents a modified PageRank algorithm to assess the importance of MGs that include multiple DERs and ESS. With the importance rank order list of the multiple MG networks, the core MG (or node) of power production and consumption can be identified. Identifying such an MG is useful in preventing cascading failures by distributing the concentration on the core node, while increasing the effective link connection of the energy flow and energy trade. This scheme can be applied to identify the most profitable MG in the energy trade market so that the deployment operation of the MG connection can be decided to increase the effectiveness of energy usages. By identifying the important MG nodes in the network, it can help improve the resilience and robustness of the power grid system against large-scale cascading failures and other unexpected events. The proposed algorithm can point out which MG node is important in the MGs power grid network and thus, it could prevent the cascading failure by distributing the important MG node's role to other MG nodes.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제43권12호
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• pp.1116-1123
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• 2015

정지궤도위성의 수명은 추진제 잔여량에 좌우되고 정확한 잔여추진제량 측정은 조기 수명종료로 야기되는 경제적 손실을 완화시킬 뿐만 아니라 후속위성의 대체나 위성망 운용계획 등에 매우 중요하다. 본 논문에서는 열질량법과 그 불확실성 추정방법에 대한 기본이론에 대해 소개한다. 열질량법 잔여추진제 분석은 무궁화위성 데이터를 기초로 분석하였고 이러한 열질량법 불확실성 분석은 몬테카를로 방법을 사용하여 수행하였다. 이러한 연구 결과를 통해 열질량법을 사용한 잔여추진제 추정의 중요 파라미터를 알 수 있다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.343-352
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• 2014

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses with respect to nuclear data are performed with depletion calculations for BWR and PWR fuel assemblies specified in the framework of the UAM-LWR Benchmark Phase II. For this, the GRS sampling based tool XSUSA is employed together with the TRITON depletion sequences from the SCALE 6.1 code system. Uncertainties for multiplication factors and nuclide inventories are determined, as well as the main contributors to these result uncertainties by calculating importance indicators. The corresponding neutron transport calculations are performed with the deterministic discrete-ordinates code NEWT. In addition, the Monte Carlo code KENO in multi-group mode is used to demonstrate a method with which the number of neutron histories per calculation run can be substantially reduced as compared to that in a calculation for the nominal case without uncertainties, while uncertainties and sensitivities are obtained with almost the same accuracy.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제45권6호
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• pp.767-790
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• 2013

MAAP4 is a computer code that can simulate the response of a light water reactor power plant during severe accident sequences, including actions taken as part of accident management. The code quantitatively predicts the evolution of a severe accident starting from full power conditions given a set of system faults and initiating events through events such as core melt, reactor vessel failure, and containment failure. Furthermore, models are included in the code to represent the actions that could mitigate the accident by in-vessel cooling, external cooling of the reactor pressure vessel, or cooling the debris in containment. A key element tied to using a code like MAAP4 is an uncertainty analysis. The purpose of this paper is to present a MAAP4 based analysis to examine the sensitivity of a key parameter, in this case hydrogen production, to a set of model parameters that are related to a Level 2 PRA analysis. The Level 2 analysis examines those sequences that result in core melting and subsequent reactor pressure vessel failure and its impact on the containment. This paper identifies individual contributors and MAAP4 model parameters that statistically influence hydrogen production. Hydrogen generation was chosen because of its direct relationship to oxidation. With greater oxidation, more heat is added to the core region and relocation (core slump) should occur faster. This, in theory, would lead to shorter failure times and subsequent "hotter" debris pool on the containment floor.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.51-70
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• 2008

CFD is applied to evaluate pedestrian wind comfort at outdoor platforms in a high-rise apartment building. Model validation is focused on generic building sub-configurations that are obtained by decomposition of the actual complex building geometry. The comfort study is performed during the design stage, which allows structural design changes to be made for wind comfort improvement. Preliminary simulations are performed to determine the effect of different design modifications. A full wind comfort assessment study is conducted for the final design. Structural remedial measures for this building, aimed at reducing pressure short-circuiting, appear to be successful in bringing the discomfort probability estimates down to acceptable levels. Finally, the importance of one of the main sources of uncertainty in this type of wind comfort studies is illustrated. It is shown that the uncertainty about the terrain roughness classification can strongly influence the outcome of wind comfort studies and can lead to wrong decisions. This problem is present to the same extent in both wind tunnel and CFD wind comfort studies when applying the same particular procedure for terrain relation contributions as used in this paper.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.219-230
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• 2022

Knowing that the variability of soil properties is an important source of uncertainty in geotechnical analyses, we will study in this paper the effect of this variability on the seismic response of a structure within the framework of Soil Structure Interaction (SSI). We use the proposed and developed model (N2-ISS, Mekki et al., 2014). This approach is based on an extension of the N2 method by determining the capacity curve of the fixed base system oscillating mainly in the first mode, then modified to obtain the capacity curve of the system on a flexible basis using the concept of the equivalent nonlinear oscillator. The properties of the soil that we are interested in this paper will be the shear wave velocity and the soil damping. These parameters will be modeled at first, as independent random fields, then, the two parameters will be correlated. The results obtained showed the importance of the use of random field in the study of SSI systems. The variability of soil damping and shear wave velocity introduces significant uncertainty not only in the evaluation of the damping of the soil-structure system but also in the estimation of the displacement of the structure and the base-shear force.

• 대한수의학회지
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.259-263
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• 2007

The choice of input distribution in quantitative risk assessments modeling is of great importance to get unbiased overall estimates, although it is difficult to characterize them in situations where data available are too sparse or small. The present study is particularly concerned with accommodation of uncertainties commonly encountered in the practice of modeling. The authors applied parametric and non-parametric bootstrap simulation methods which consist of re-sampling with replacement, in together with the classical Student-t statistics based on the normal distribution. The implications of these methods were demonstrated through an empirical analysis of trade volume from the amount of chicken and pork meat imported to Korea during the period of 1998-2005. The results of bootstrap method were comparable to the classical techniques, indicating that bootstrap can be an alternative approach in a specific context of trade volume. We also illustrated on what extent the bias corrected and accelerated non-parametric bootstrap method produces different estimate of interest, as compared by non-parametric bootstrap method.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.23-28
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• 1993

Activity structures are a set of functional structures which may be used to provide a uniform framework for the description of information processing systems. The interaction of some aspects of activity structures is discussed. Intelligent systems, a subset of information handling systems, are the primary emphasis of this work. An extension to the functional structures of the activity structures is proposed. The proposed structure is a met a-structure which affects most elements of an intelligent system. The structure is concerned with describing the way uncertainty in an environment is handled by a system. An example is given which shows the importance of describing the uncertainty handling method(s) of an intelligent system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권6호
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• pp.1226-1233
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• 2017

Measurements of the isotopic contents of spent nuclear fuel provide experimental data that are a prerequisite for validating computer codes and nuclear data for many spent fuel applications. Under the auspices of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and guidance of the Expert Group on Assay Data of Spent Nuclear Fuel of the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety, a new database of expanded spent fuel isotopic compositions has been compiled. The database, Spent Fuel Compositions (SFCOMPO) 2.0, includes measured data for more than 750 fuel samples acquired from 44 different reactors and representing eight different reactor technologies. Measurements for more than 90 isotopes are included. This new database provides data essential for establishing the reliability of code systems for inventory predictions, but it also has broader potential application to nuclear data evaluation. The database, together with adjoint based sensitivity and uncertainty tools for transmutation systems developed to quantify the importance of nuclear data on nuclide concentrations, are described.