• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty importance

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Estimating potential range shift of some wild bees in response to climate change scenarios in northwestern regions of Iran

  • Rahimi, Ehsan;Barghjelveh, Shahindokht;Dong, Pinliang
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.130-142
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    • 2021
  • Background: Climate change is occurring rapidly around the world, and is predicted to have a large impact on biodiversity. Various studies have shown that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of wild bees. As climate change affects the species distribution and causes range shift, the degree of range shift and the quality of the habitats are becoming more important for securing the species diversity. In addition, those pollinator insects are contributing not only to shaping the natural ecosystem but also to increased crop production. The distributional and habitat quality changes of wild bees are of utmost importance in the climate change era. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on distributional and habitat quality changes of five wild bees in northwestern regions of Iran under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We used species distribution models to predict the potential range shift of these species in the year 2070. Result: The effects of climate change on different species are different, and the increase in temperature mainly expands the distribution ranges of wild bees, except for one species that is estimated to have a reduced potential range. Therefore, the increase in temperature would force wild bees to shift to higher latitudes. There was also significant uncertainty in the use of different models and the number of environmental layers employed in the modeling of habitat suitability. Conclusion: The increase in temperature caused the expansion of species distribution and wider areas would be available to the studied species in the future. However, not all of this possible range may include high-quality habitats, and wild bees may limit their niche to suitable habitats. On the other hand, the movement of species to higher latitudes will cause a mismatch between farms and suitable areas for wild bees, and as a result, farmers will face a shortage of pollination from wild bees. We suggest that farmers in these areas be aware of the effects of climate change on agricultural production and consider the use of managed bees in the future.

Comparison of Domestic and International Government Policies in Pandemic Circumstances and Crises: Based on COVID-19, SARS, MERS (펜데믹 상황시 정부의 대응 정책 비교: 코로나-19, 사스, 메르스를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Suk-Man;Park, Sang-Yong;Lee, Min-Woo;Kang, Chul-Woong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Physical Medicine
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.123-141
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    • 2021
  • PURPOSE: Focusing on the factors that influence the infectious disease emergency response policy (approached by dividing the factors into health policy management and economic policies), both SARS and MERS cases were based on the legal system, manpower, and budget, but there has not been enough learning from the epidemic. This study focused on infectious disease emergency governance, which various studies have neglected despite its social and academic importance. METHODS: The research is based on an analysis of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 and compares global policies. In this study, infectious disease emergency governance was divided into health policy management and economic factors. This study focused on planning and leadership before and after the outbreak of infectious diseases and how cooperation was achieved to monitor and respond to infectious diseases successfully. RESULTS and CONCLUSION: The limit of this study was that COVID-19 is a currently ongoing infectious disease with high uncertainty. Because it is an ongoing problem, only some data and statistics are reflected, and many limitations prevent a proper comparison under the same criteria as other infectious diseases. In addition, because continuous changes are expected, there is also room for infectious diseases to develop in a completely different pattern from the current situation, and continuous research must be accompanied in the future.

A Mixed-Integer Programming Model for Effective Distribution of Relief Supplies in Disaster (재난 구호품의 효과적 분배를 위한 혼합정수계획 모형)

  • Kim, Heungseob
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.26-36
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    • 2021
  • The topic of this study is the field of humanitarian logistics for disaster response. Many existing studies have revealed that compliance with the golden time in response to a disaster determines the success or failure of relief activities, and logistics costs account for 80% of the disaster response cost. Besides, the agility, responsiveness, and effectiveness of the humanitarian logistics system are emphasized in consideration of the disaster situation's characteristics, such as the urgency of life-saving and rapid environmental changes. In other words, they emphasize the importance of logistics activities in disaster response, which includes the effective and efficient distribution of relief supplies. This study proposes a mathematical model for establishing a transport plan to distribute relief supplies in a disaster situation. To determine vehicles' route and the amount of relief for cities suffering a disaster, it mainly considers the urgency, effectiveness (restoration rate), and uncertainty in the logistics system. The model is initially developed as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model containing some nonlinear functions and transform into a Mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model using a logarithmic transformation and piecewise linear approximation method. Furthermore, a minimax problem is suggested to search for breakpoints and slopes to define a piecewise linear function that minimizes the linear approximation error. A numerical experiment is performed to verify the MILP model, and linear approximation error is also analyzed in the experiment.

Comparison of classical and reliable controller performances for seismic response mitigation

  • Kavyashree, B.G.;Patil, Shantharama;Rao, Vidya S.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.353-364
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    • 2021
  • Natural hazards like earthquakes, high winds, and tsunami are a threat all the time for multi-story structures. The environmental forces cannot be clogged but the structures can be prevented from these natural hazards by using protective systems. The structural control can be achieved by using protective systems like the passive, active, semi-active, and hybrid protective systems; but the semi-active protective system has gained importance because of its adaptability to the active systems and reliability of the passive systems. Therefore, a semi-active protective system for the earthquake forces has been adopted in this work. Magneto-Rheological (MR) damper is used in the structure as a semi-active protective system; which is connected to the current driver and proposed controller. The Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) controller and reliable PID controller are two proposed controllers, which will actuate the MR damper and the desired force is generated to mitigate the vibration of the structural response subjected to the earthquake. PID controller and reliable PID controller are designed and tuned using Ziegler-Nichols tuning technique along with the MR damper simulated in Simulink toolbox and MATLAB to obtain the reduced vibration in a three-story benchmark structure. The earthquake is considered to be uncertain; where the proposed control algorithm works well during the presence of earthquake; this paper considers robustness to provide satisfactory resilience against this uncertainty. In this work, two different earthquakes are considered like El-Centro and Northridge earthquakes for simulation with different controllers. In this paper performances of the structure with and without two controllers are compared and results are discussed.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment in the southern coastal sedimentary basin of Benin using DRASTIC, modified DRASTIC, Entropy Weight DRASTIC and AVI

  • Agossou, Amos;Yang, Jeong-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.152-152
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    • 2021
  • The importance of groundwater has long been recognized, but the ground water potential to become contaminated as a result of human activities has only been recognized in recently. Before 1980 it was thought that soils served as filters, preventing harmful substances deposited at the surface from migrating into groundwater. Today it is known that soils have a finite capacity to protect groundwater. It can be contaminated from divers sources. Therefore, Assessment of aquifer vulnerability to pollution is essential for the protection and management of groundwater and land use planning. In this study, we used DRASTIC and AVI for groundwater vulnerability to contamination assessment. the different methods were applied to the southern coastal sedimentary basin of Benin and DRASTIC method was modified in two different steps. First, we modified DRASTIC by adding land use parameter to include the actual pollution sources (DRASTICLcLu) and second, classic DRASTIC weights was modified using Shannon's entropy (Entropy weight DRASTIC). The reliability of the applied approaches was verified using nitrate (NO3-) concentration and by comparing the overall vulnerability maps to the previous researches in the study area and in the world. The results from validation showed that the addition of landcover/land use parameter to the classic DRASTIC helps to improve the method for better definition of the vulnerable areas in the basin and also, the weight modification using entropy improved better the method because Entropy weight DRASTICLcLu showed the highest correlation with nitrate concentration in the study basin. In summary the weight modification using entropy approach reduced the uncertainty of the human subjectivity in assigning weights and ratings in the standard DRASTIC.

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Development of Real-Time Optimal Bus Scheduling Models (실시간 버스 운행계획수립 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Wongil;Son, Bongsoo;Chung, Jin-Hyuk;Lee, Jeomho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5D
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    • pp.587-595
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    • 2008
  • Many studies on bus scheduling optimization have been done from the 1960s to recent years for establishing rational bus schedule plan that can improve convenience of bus passengers and minimize unnecessary runs. After 2000, as part of the Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), the importance of the schedule management and providing schedule information through bus schedule optimization has become a big issue, and much research is being done to develop optimization models that will increase bus passenger convenience and, on the side of bus management, minimize unnecessary bus operation. The purpose of this study is to calculate the optimal bus frequency and create a timetable for each bus stop by applying DTR or DTRC model that use data for each bus stop and route segment. Model verification process was implemented using data collected from bus management system (BMS) and integrated transit-fare card system for bus route of Seoul's No. 472 line. In order to evaluate the reliability and uncertainty of optimal solution, sensitivity analysis was implemented for the various parameters and assumptions used in the bus scheduling model.

Synthesis and characterization of Pb10-xCux(PO4)6O polycrystalline samples

  • Huiwon Kim;Minsik Kong;Minjae Kim;Seohee Kim;Jong Mok Ok
    • Progress in Superconductivity and Cryogenics
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.5-9
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    • 2023
  • Lee, Kim, et al. reported in July 2023 that a modified lead apatite material, Pb10-xCux(PO4)6O (0.9 < x < 1.1), exhibited superconductivity at room temperature and atmospheric pressure [1, 2]. However, their X-ray diffraction data clearly showed the presence of impurity phases, including Cu2S, raising uncertainty about the sample quality. Subsequent studies have been conducted; however, different samples exhibited various physical properties. To verify the recipe for the sample growth process, we synthesized samples following the methodology outlined in the reference [1, 2]. An analysis of the structure and physical properties of the synthesized sample reaffirms the critical importance of high-quality sample growth.

The Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility(CSR) Activities on Innovation Performance: The Sequential Mediation Effect of Knowledge Sharing and Innovation Behavior (기업의 사회적 책임(CSR) 활동이 혁신성과에 미치는 영향: 지식공유와 혁신행동의 직렬이중매개효과)

  • Yang Lyu;Chun-Hua Jin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.63-84
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of CSR activities on innovation performance and to identify the mediating role of knowledge sharing and innovation behaviors between CSR activities and innovation performance. In addition, the purpose of this study is to verify the role of sequential mediating effect of knowledge sharing and innovation behavior between CSR activities and innovation performance. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected survey data from 293 organizational members working in Chinese companies. The exploratory factor analysis (EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), reliability analysis, correlation analysis and process macro were used in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, this study verified that CSR activities had a significant positive effect on knowledge sharing, innovation behavior, and innovation performance. Second, it was found that knowledge sharing had a significant positive effect on innovation behavior and innovation performance. Third, it was verified that innovation behavior had a significant positive effect on innovation performance. Fourth, knowledge sharing and innovation behavior had a sequential mediating effect in the relationship between CSR activities and innovation performance. Research implications or Originality - With the uncertainty of the environment and the intensification of competition among companies, more and more companies begin to pay attention to innovation. Different from existing studies, this study focuses on CSR activities, identifies the role of CSR activities, explores ways to guide innovation performance, and verifies the sequential mediating role of knowledge sharing and innovation behavior. Through this measure, the importance of knowledge sharing and innovative behavior among organizational members is emphasized, solutions to strengthen innovation are explored, and theoretical and practical implications are provided for companies.

Generative AI Jeonse Fraud Prevention System (생성형 인공지능 전세 사기 방지 시스템)

  • Yeon-Jae Oh
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2024
  • Along with its importance, the real estate market poses risks of various fraudulent activities. Recently, a surge in real estate-related scams, such as lease fraud, has caused great financial damage to many ordinary people. These problems are often caused by the complexity of real estate transactions and information imbalance. Therefore, there is an urgent need to secure reliability and improve transparency in the transaction process. In this paper, to solve this real estate fraud problem, we propose a chatbot system using digital technology and artificial intelligence, especially GPT (Generative Pre-Trained Transformer). This system serves to protect users from fraud by providing them with precautions and confirmations in the lease transaction process. In addition, GPT-based chatbots respond to questions from users in time, contributing to reducing uncertainty in the transaction process and increasing reliability.

An Empirical Study on the Factors Affecting RFID Adoption Stage with Organizational Resources (조직의 자원을 고려한 RFID 도입단계별 영향요인에 관한 실증연구)

  • Jang, Sung-Hee;Lee, Dong-Man
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.125-150
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    • 2009
  • RFID(Radio Frequency IDentification) is a wireless frequency of recognition technology that can be used to recognize, trace, and identify people, things, and animals using radio frequency(RF). RFID will bring about many changes in manufacturing and distributions, among other areas. In accordance with the increasing importance of RFID techniques, great advancement has been made in RFID studies. Initially, the RFID research started as a research literature or case study. Recently, empirical research has floated on the surface for announcement. But most of the existing researches on RFID adoption have been restricted to a dichotomous measure of 'adoption vs. non-adoption' or adoption intention. In short, RFID research is still at an initial stage, mainly focusing on the research of the RFID performance, integration, and its usage has been considered dismissive. The purpose of this study is to investigate which factors are important for the RFID adoption and implementation with organizational resources. In this study, the organizational resources are classified into either finance resources or IT knowledge resources. A research model and four hypotheses are set up to identify the relationships among these variables based on the investigations of such theories as technological innovations, adoption stage, and organizational resources. In order to conduct this study, a survey was carried out from September 27, 2008 until October 23, 2008. The questionnaire was completed by 143 managers and workers from physical distribution and manufacturing companies related to the RFID in South Korea. 37 out of 180 surveys, which turned out unfit for the study, were discarded and the remaining 143(adoption stage 89, implementation stage 54) were used for the empirical study. The statistics were analyzed using Excel 2003 and SPSS 12.0. The results of the analysis are as follows. First, the adoption stage shows that perceived benefits, standardization, perceived cost savings, environmental uncertainty, and pressures from rival firms have significant effects on the intent of the RFID adoption. Further, the implementation stage shows that perceived benefits, standardization, environmental uncertainty, pressures from rival firms, inter-organizational cooperation, and inter-organizational trust have significant effects on the extent of the RFID use. In contrast, inter-organizational cooperation and inter-organizational trust did not show much impact on the intent of RFID adoption while perceived cost savings did not significantly affect the extent of RFID use. Second, in the adoption stage, financial issues had adverse effect on both inter-organizational cooperation and the intent against the RFID adoption. IT knowledge resources also had a deterring effect on both perceived cost savings and the extent of the RFID adoption. Third, in the implementation stage, finance resources had a moderate effect on environmental uncertainty and extent of RFID use while IT knowledge resources had also a moderate effect on perceived cost savings and the extent of the RFID use. Limitations and future research issues can be summarized as follows. First, it is difficult to say that the sample is large enough to be representative of the population. Second, because the sample of this study was conducted among manufacturers only, it may be limited in analyzing fully the effect on the industry as a whole. Third, in consideration of the fact that the organizational resources in the RFID study require a great deal of researches, this research may deem insufficient to fulfill the purpose that it initially set out to achieve. Future studies using performance research are, therefore, needed to help better understand the organizational level of the RFID adoption and implementation.