• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty factor

Search Result 634, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

A Case Study on Function Point Method applying on Monte Carlo Simulation in Automotive Software Development

  • Do, Sung Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.25 no.6
    • /
    • pp.119-129
    • /
    • 2020
  • Software development activities are influenced by stochastic theory rather than deterministic one due to having process variability. Stochastic methods factor in the uncertainties associated with project activities and provides insight into the expected project outputs as probability distributions rather than as deterministic approximations. Thus, successful software projects systematically manage and balance five objectives based on historical probability: scope, size, cost, effort, schedule, and quality. Although software size estimation having much uncertainty in initial development has traditionally performed using deterministic methods: LOC(Lines Of Code), COCOMO(COnsructive COst MOdel), FP(Function Point), SLIM(Software LIfecycle Management). This research aims to present a function point method based on stochastic distribution and a case study based on Monte Carlo Simulation applying on an automotive electrical and electronics system software development. It is expected that the result of this paper is used as guidance for establishing of function point method in organizations and tools for helping project managers make decisions correctly.

Isotopic Fissile Assay of Spent Fuel in a Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometer System

  • Lee, Yongdeok;Jeon, Juyoung;Park, Changje
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.49 no.3
    • /
    • pp.549-555
    • /
    • 2017
  • A lead slowing-down spectrometer (LSDS) system is under development to analyze isotopic fissile content that is applicable to spent fuel and recycled material. The source neutron mechanism for efficient and effective generation was also determined. The source neutron interacts with a lead medium and produces continuous neutron energy, and this energy generates dominant fission at each fissile, below the unresolved resonance region. From the relationship between the induced fissile fission and the fast fission neutron detection, a mathematical assay model for an isotopic fissile material was set up. The assay model can be expanded for all fissile materials. The correction factor for self-shielding was defined in the fuel assay area. The corrected fission signature provides well-defined fission properties with an increase in the fissile content. The assay procedure was also established. The assay energy range is very important to take into account the prominent fission structure of each fissile material. Fission detection occurred according to the change of the Pu239 weight percent (wt%), but the content of U235 and Pu241 was fixed at 1 wt%. The assay result was obtained with 2~3% uncertainty for Pu239, depending on the amount of Pu239 in the fuel. The results show that LSDS is a very powerful technique to assay the isotopic fissile content in spent fuel and recycled materials for the reuse of fissile materials. Additionally, a LSDS is applicable during the optimum design of spent fuel storage facilities and their management. The isotopic fissile content assay will increase the transparency and credibility of spent fuel storage.

The Effect of Non-cognitive Skill on Employability: Focusing on the Period of Job Search and Tenure (비인지적 요인이 취업에 미치는 영향: 구직기간과 근속기간 분석을 중심으로)

  • Lim, Chan-young
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
    • /
    • v.20 no.6
    • /
    • pp.3069-3085
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this study, we examined the effect of non-cognitive factors on job tenure and tenure using KLIPS. We examine the internal consistency of the big5 personality trait and of the locus of control, and use the parameterized proportional hazards model. As a result, we confirmed that non-cognitive skill such as personality traits and locus of control affect individual labor market performance. Conscientiousness has shown that the job seeking period of adult job seekers is lengthened, thereby lowering the unemployment rate. It can be understood that high attentiveness under uncertainty can misinterpret information, and that lack of decision restricts escape from unemployment. In the tenure analysis, people with internal locus of control tendency were less likely to leave the job due to longer tenure. Those who have internal control can not only be preferred by the organization but also the internal control tendency seems to be the factor that maintains the long-term job because of the motivation and self-control of their actions.

Analysis of the potential landslide hazard after wildfire considering compound disaster effect (복합재해 영향을 고려한 산불 후 산사태 잠재적 피해 위험도 분석)

  • Lee, Jong-Ook;Lee, Dong-Kun;Song, Young-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
    • /
    • v.22 no.1
    • /
    • pp.33-45
    • /
    • 2019
  • Compound disaster is the type that increases the impact affected by two or more hazard events, and attention to compound disaster and multi-hazards risk is growing due to potential damages which are difficult to predict. The objective of this study is to analyze the possible impacts of post-fire landslide scenario quantitatively by using TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis), a physics-based landslide model. In the case of wildfire, soil organic material and density are altered, and saturated hydraulic conductivity decrease because of soil exposed to high temperature. We have included the change of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity into the TRIGRS model through literature review. For a case study, we selected the area of $8km^2$ in Pyeongchang County. The landslide modeling process was calibrated before simulate the post-wildfire impact based on landslide inventory data to reduce uncertainty. As a result, the mean of the total factor of safety values in the case of landslide was 2.641 when rainfall duration is 1 hour with rainfall intensity of 100mm per day, while the mean value for the case of post-wildfire landslide was lower to 2.579, showing potential landslide occurrence areas appear more quickly in the compound disaster scenario. This study can be used to prevent potential losses caused by the compound disaster such as post-wildfire debris flow or landslides.

Ground Tracking Support Condition Effect on Orbit Determination for Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) in Lunar Orbit

  • Kim, Young-Rok;Song, Young-Joo;Park, Jae-ik;Lee, Donghun;Bae, Jonghee;Hong, SeungBum;Kim, Dae-Kwan;Lee, Sang-Ryool
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.37 no.4
    • /
    • pp.237-247
    • /
    • 2020
  • The ground tracking support is a critical factor for the navigation performance of spacecraft orbiting around the Moon. Because of the tracking limit of antennas, only a small number of facilities can support lunar missions. Therefore, case studies for various ground tracking support conditions are needed for lunar missions on the stage of preliminary mission analysis. This study analyzes the ground supporting condition effect on orbit determination (OD) of Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) in the lunar orbit. For the assumption of ground support conditions, daily tracking frequency, cut-off angle for low elevation, tracking measurement accuracy, and tracking failure situations were considered. Two antennas of deep space network (DSN) and Korea Deep Space Antenna (KDSA) are utilized for various tracking conditions configuration. For the investigation of the daily tracking frequency effect, three cases (full support, DSN 4 pass/day and KDSA 4 pass/day, and DSN 2 pass/day and KDSA 2 pass/day) are prepared. For the elevation cut-off angle effect, two situations, which are 5 deg and 10 deg, are assumed. Three cases (0%, 30%, and 50% of degradation) were considered for the tracking measurement accuracy effect. Three cases such as no missing, 1-day KDSA missing, and 2-day KDSA missing are assumed for tracking failure effect. For OD, a sequential estimation algorithm was used, and for the OD performance evaluation, position uncertainty, position differences between true and estimated orbits, and orbit overlap precision according to various ground supporting conditions were investigated. Orbit prediction accuracy variations due to ground tracking conditions were also demonstrated. This study provides a guideline for selecting ground tracking support levels and preparing a backup plan for the KPLO lunar mission phase.

An Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Nakdong River Environmental Flow (낙동강 유역 환경유량에 대한 기후변화의 영향 분석)

  • Lee, A Yeon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.273-285
    • /
    • 2011
  • This study describes the modeling of climate change impact on runoff across southeast Korea using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model TANK and assesses the results using the concept of environmental flows developed by International Water Management Institute. The future climate time series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by 4 global climate models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to reflect a $4.0^{\circ}C$ increase at most in average surface air temperature and 31.7% increase at most in annual precipitation, using the spatio-temporal changing factor method that considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily rainfall distribution. Although the simulation results from different global circulation models and greenhouse emission scenarios indicate different responses in flows to the climate change, the majority of the modeling results show that there will be more runoff in southeast Korea in the future. However, there is substantial uncertainty, with the results ranging from a 5.82% decrease to a 48.15% increase in the mean annual runoff averaged across the study area according to the corresponding climate change scenarios. We then assess the hydrologic perturbations based on the comparison between present and future flow duration curves suggested by IMWI. As a result, the effect of hydrologic perturbation on aquatic ecosystems may be significant at several locations of the Nakdong river main stream in dry season.

The Assessment of Cross Calibration/Validation Accuracy for KOMPSAT-3 Using Landsat 8 and 6S

  • Jin, Cheonggil;Choi, Chuluong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.37 no.1
    • /
    • pp.123-137
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this study, we performed cross calibration of KOMPSAT-3 AEISS imaging sensor with reference to normalized pixels in the Landsat 8 OLI scenes of homogenous ROI recorded by both sensors between January 2014 and December 2019 at the Libya 4 PICS. Cross calibration is using images from a stable and well-calibrated satellite sensor as references to harmonize measurements from other sensors and/or characterize other sensors. But cross calibration has two problems; RSR and temporal difference. The RSR of KOMPSAT-3 and Landsat 8 are similar at the blue and green bands. But the red and NIR bands have a large difference. So we calculate SBAF of each sensor. We compared the SBAF estimated from the TOA Radiance simulation with KOMPSAT-3 and Landsat 8, the results displayed a difference of about 2.07~2.92% and 0.96~1.21% in the VIS and NIR bands. Before SBAF, Reflectance and Radiance difference was 0.42~23.23%. Case of difference temporal, we simulated by 6S and Landsat 8 for alignment the same acquisition time. The SBAF-corrected cross calibration coefficients using KOMPSAT-3, 6S and simulated Landsat 8 compared to the initial cross calibration without correction demonstrated a percentage difference in the spectral bands of about 0.866~1.192%. KOMPSAT-3 maximum uncertainty was estimated at 3.26~3.89%; errors due to atmospheric condition minimized to less than 1% (via 6S); Maximum deviation of KOMPSAT-3 DN was less than 1%. As the result, the results affirm that SBAF and 6s simulation enhanced cross-calibration accuracy.

Impact of Self-Presentation Text of Airbnb Hosts on Listing Performance by Facility Type (Airbnb 숙소 유형에 따른 호스트의 자기소개 텍스트가 공유성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Sim, Ji Hwan;Kim, So Young;Chung, Yeojin
    • Knowledge Management Research
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.157-173
    • /
    • 2020
  • In accommodation sharing economy, customers take a risk of uncertainty about product quality, which is an important factor affecting users' satisfaction. This risk can be lowered by the information disclosed by the facility provider. Self-presentation of the hosts can make a positive effect on listing performance by eliminating psychological distance through emotional interaction with users. This paper analyzed the self-presentation text provided by Airbnb hosts and found key aspects in the text. In order to extract the aspects from the text, host descriptions were separated into sentences and applied the Attention-Based Aspect Extraction method, an unsupervised neural attention model. Then, we investigated the relationship between aspects in the host description and the listing performance via linear regression models. In order to compare their impact between the three facility types(Entire home/apt, Private rooms, and Shared rooms), the interaction effects between the facility types and the aspect summaries were included in the model. We found that specific aspects had positive effects on the performance for each facility type, and provided implication on the marketing strategy to maximize the performance of the shared economy.

The quality of subgroup analyses in chronic pain randomized controlled trials: a methodological review

  • AminiLari, Mahmood;Ashoorian, Vahid;Caldwell, Alexa;Rahman, Yasir;Nieuwlaat, Robby;Busse, Jason W.;Mbuagbaw, Lawrence
    • The Korean Journal of Pain
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.139-155
    • /
    • 2021
  • The quality of subgroup analyses (SGAs) in chronic non-cancer pain trials is uncertain. The purpose of this study was to address this issue. We conducted a comprehensive search in MEDLINE and EMBASE from January 2012 to September 2018 to identify eligible trials. Two pairs of reviewers assessed the quality of the SGAs and the credibility of subgroup claims using the 10 criteria developed by Sun et al. in 2012. The associations between the quality of the SGAs and the studies' characteristics including risk of bias, funding sources, sample size, and the latest impact factor, were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. Our search retrieved 3,401 articles of which 66 were eligible. The total number of SGAs was 177 of which 52 (29.4%) made a subgroup claim. Of these, only 15 (8.5%) were evaluated as being of high quality. Among the 30 SGAs that claimed subgroup effects using an appropriate method of performing interaction tests, the credibility of only 5 were assessed as high. None of the subgroup claims met all the credibility criteria. No significant association was found between the quality of SGAs and the studies' characteristics. The quality of the SGAs performed in chronic pain trials was poor. To enhance the quality of SGAs, scholars should consider the developed criteria when designing and conducting trials, particularly those which need to be specified a priori.

Can Employees with Job Insecurity Engage in Job Crafting? Moderating Effect of GNS (직무안정성과 직무재창조 간의 관계: GNS의 조절효과)

  • Harris, Deonna;Cha, Yunsuk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.22 no.7
    • /
    • pp.176-186
    • /
    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of perceived job insecurity on job crafting behaviors among employees from two different cultures: Jamaica and South Korea. Growth needs strength was also examined as a moderating variable on the job insecurity/job crafting relationship. This study collected 102 data samples from working individuals from Jamaica and 98 from South Korea. The Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and the hierarchical regression analysis were used in order to analyze the data. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 24.0. Our research results indicated that perceived job insecurity has a significant effect on employees job crafting behaviors. The relationship between perceived job insecurity and job crafting behaviors differs based on culture. In addition, employees growth need strength moderates the relationship between the two variables. Although this study has some limitations, it contributed to the stress-coping literature by showing that individuals will engage in coping behaviors when they perceived job insecurity in the organization. In addition, culture and individual drive or need for growth plays an important role in how individuals cope with perceived stress or uncertainty.