• 제목/요약/키워드: uncertainty assessment

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다점 피토관을 이용한 기체 유량 측정의 불확도 평가 (Uncertainty Assessment of Gas Flow Measurement Using Multi-Point Pitot Tubes)

  • 양인영;이보화
    • 한국유체기계학회 논문집
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.5-10
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    • 2016
  • Gas flow measurement in a closed duct was performed using multi-point Pitot tubes. Measurement uncertainty was assessed for this measurement method. The method was applied for the measurement of air flow into a gas turbine engine in an altitude engine test facility. 46 Pitot tubes, 15 total temperature Kiel probes and 9 static pressure tabs were installed in the engine inlet duct of inner diameter of 264 mm. Five tests were done in an airflow range of 2~10 kg/s. The flow was compressible and the Reynolds numbers were between 450,000 and 2,220,000. The measurement uncertainty was the highest as 6.1% for the lowest flow rate, and lowest as 0.8% for the highest flow rate. This is because the difference between the total and static pressures, which is also related to the flow velocity, becomes almost zero for low flow rate cases. It was found that this measurement method can be used only when the flow velocity is relatively high, e.g., 50 m/s. Static pressure was the most influencing parameter on the flow rate measurement uncertainty. Temperature measurement uncertainty was not very important. Measurement of boundary layer was found to be important for this type of flow rate measurement method. But measurement of flow non-uniformity was not very important provided that the non-uniformity has random behavior in the duct.

말초동맥질환자의 불확실성, 사회적 지지, 환자역할행위 이행이 건강 관련 삶의 질에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Uncertainty, Social Support, and Sick Role Behavior on Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease)

  • 이혜주;김윤경
    • 임상간호연구
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.314-326
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to examine the effects of uncertainty, social support, and sick role behavior on health-related quality of life in patients with peripheral arterial disease. Methods: This study is a descriptive research using self-reporting questionnaire. Data were collected from 167 patients with peripheral arterial disease. Measurement tools were Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support(MSPSS), Mishel's Uncertainty in Illness Scale (MUIS), Sick role behavior measurement tools and SF-36 Version I. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation, and regression analysis by using SPSS/WIN 24.0. Results: Factors that significantly influenced physical health-related quality of life were age (β=-.19, p=.010), monthly income (β=.17, p=.027), uncertainty (β=-.29, p<.001), and exercise and rest (β=.28, p<.001) that all together accounted for 32.6% of the variance. Factors that significantly influenced mental health-related quality of life were monthly income (β=.20, p=.015), drinking (β=.17, p=.040), uncertainty (β=-.24, p=.001), and exercise and rest in sick role behavior (β=.26, p=.003) that all together accounted for 18.2% of the variance. Social support was an insignificant factor on physical and mental health-related quality of life. Conclusion: To improve the health-related quality of life of people with peripheral arterial disease, it is necessary to develop a systematic nursing intervention program including a strong support system, education, strategies for alcohol abstinence, and exercise and rest therapy.

선박 조종성능 평가를 위한 옥외 자유항주모형시험의 불확실성 해석 (Uncertainty Assessment of Outdoor Free-Running Model Tests for Evaluating Ship Maneuverability)

  • 박종열;서정화;이태일;이대한;박격포;윤현규;이신형
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제57권5호
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    • pp.262-270
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    • 2020
  • An outdoor free-running model test system was designed for assessing ship maneuverability with test uncertainty. The test model was a surface combatant of tumblehome hull geometry. The straight forward tests were conducted first to obtain the relationship between the propeller revolution rate and advance speed. During the outdoor tests, the propeller revolution rate to achieve a certain Froude number condition was higher than that in the indoor free-running model tests. Turning circle and zigzag tests for evaluating ship maneuverability criteria were carried out at the propeller revolution rate determined by the straight forward test results. The random and systematic standard uncertainties of maneuvering criteria were obtained by repeated tests and comparison with the indoor free-running model test results, respectively. The test uncertainty was largely dominated by the systematic standard uncertainty, while the random standard uncertainty was small with good repeatability.

불확실 상황에서 질산 폭로 평가 (Nitrate Exposure Assessment under Uncertainty)

  • 이용운
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.105-121
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    • 1995
  • 지하수의 질산오염 문제는 한국을 포함한 세계의 여러나라에서 보고되어 왔다. 질산염은 청색증 유발물질로서 뿐만 아니라 발암물질일 가능성도 동물실험을 통해 제기되고 있다. 대부분의 경우에 지하수 질산염의 주요 오염원은 농작물 생산량의 향상을 위해 사용하는 비료이다. 그밖에 가축의 분뇨, 산업폐기물 및 생활하수도 지역에 띠라 질산염 오염원이 될 시기는 언제인가를 결정하기 위하여 의사결정권자는 여러가지의 작물경작방법에 따라 지하수 질산오염이 어떻게 변하는지를 시계열로 예측할 필요성이 있다. 그러나 직물경작방법에 따른 지하수 질산오염을 예측하는데 필요한 토질특성, 비료의 사용량, 작물의 종류 같은 자료의 대부분은 불확실성을 내포하고 있다. 이러한 불확실성은 경제성 때문에 자료의 불충분한 조사와 인간지식의 부족으로 인해 발생한다. 본 논문에서는 불확실성을 고려하면서 작물경작방법에 따른 지하수 질산오염의 변화를 예측하는 방법을 실제적인 사례를 통해 보여준다. 그리고 자료의 불확실성을 표현하기 위해 퍼지집합이론(fuzzy set theory)은 본 논문에서 응용되었다.

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돈육 생산공정에서의 정량적 위해 평가에 fuzzy 연산의 적용 (Application of Fuzzy Math Simulation to Quantitative Risk Assessment in Pork Production)

  • 임명남;이승주
    • 한국식품과학회지
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    • 제38권4호
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    • pp.589-593
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    • 2006
  • 돈육 가공 공정에 대한 QRA에 Monte Carlo simulation이 적용된 바 있는데, 새로운 방법으로 fuzzy 연산을 적용하여 Monte Carlo simulation과 비교 분석하였다. Carcass단계에 대한 오염 예측치인 fuzzy 값과 Monte Carlo simulation 확률분포 값의 기술통계량인 평균값은 각각 -4.393 log $CFU/cm^2$, -4.589 log $CFU/cm^2$ 로 나타났으며, processing 단계에서는 -4.185 log $CFU/cm^2$, -4.466 log $CFU/cm^2$으로 두 가지 접근 방법들이 비슷한 경향을 보였다. Fuzzy 값은 Monte Carlo simulation 확률분포 값을 포함하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 최근 국내에서는 위해 평가에 대한 연구가 많이 이루어지고 있는데 대부분 데이터 분석은 Monte Carlo simulation에만 의존하고 있고, 다른 접근 방법에 대한 연구는 미진한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구는 위해 평가를 위한 방법적 도구들을 개발하는데 새로운 접근 방향을 제시하였다 또한 향후 fuzzy 연산법은 데이터가 불충분한 위해 평가의 초기 단계에서 유용하게 사용될 수 있는 방법이 될 것이다.

우리나라 비중앙급전발전기의 하루전 출력 예측시스템 개발 (Development of One Day-Ahead Renewable Energy Generation Assessment System in South Korea)

  • 이연찬;임진택;오웅진;;최재석;김진수
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제64권4호
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    • pp.505-514
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes a probabilistic generation assessment model of renewable energy generators(REGs) considering uncertainty of resources, mainly focused on Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) and Solar Cell Generator(SCG) which are dispersed widely in South Korea The proposed numerical analysis method assesses the one day-ahead generation by combining equivalent generation characteristics function and probabilistic distribution function of wind speed(WS) and solar radiation(SR) resources. The equivalent generation functions(EGFs) of the wind and solar farms are established by grouping a lot of the farms appropriately centered on Weather Measurement Station(WMS). First, the EGFs are assessed by using regression analysis method based on typical least square method from the recorded actual generation data and historical resources(WS and SR). Second, the generation of the REGs is assessed by adding the one day-ahead resources forecast, announced by WMS, to the EGFs which are formulated as third order degree polynomials using the regression analysis. Third, a Renewable Energy Generation Assessment System(REGAS) including D/B of recorded actual generation data and historical resources is developed using the model and algorithm predicting one day-ahead power output of renewable energy generators.

전략적 유연성을 고려한 연구개발사업의 경제성 평가: 이론 및 사례 분석 (Economic Valuation of R&D Programs with Strategic Flexibility)

  • 황석원;정종욱
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.237-261
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    • 2006
  • Under circumstances with increasing uncertainty, strategic flexibility has become an essential point on which my R&D management system should be based. Unfortunately the present R&D management system for government sponsored R&D programs cannot be said to be so flexible to adapt appropriately to various threatens such as technological failure, a severe change in competition environment, and so on. In this paper a new scheme for R&D planning and economic assessment with strategic flexibility is suggested and applied to a real R&D program. In the newly suggested R&D management system, economic valuation based on real option theory is performed for various alternative scenarios which have different strategic scheme for R&D process each and the result of the assessment is fed back to R&D planning to choose more superior strategic scheme. Introducing strategic flexibility into R&D planning and economic assessment, the value of R&D project could be remarkably enhanced.

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퍼지신경망을 이용한 철근콘크리트 교량의 손상도 평가 (Damage Assessment of RC Bridge Using Neural-Fuzzy System)

  • 성영준;김기봉
    • 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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    • 제3권4호
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 1999
  • Assessment of structural damage is a complex subject imbued with uncertainty and vagueness. This complexity arises from the use of subjective opinion and imprecise numerical data. Recently several active researches have been performed using new methods such as neural network approach or on-line damage detection. In this paper, Damage assessment (diagnosis) of the concrete bridges is studied by a new approach utilizing a neural fuzzy system that combined a neural network and a fuzzy logic. By applying this system to actual in-service bridges, it has been verified that the neural fuzzy method is effective for the bridge diagnosis.

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Construction performance assessment framework by means of construction simulation for earthwork operations

  • Kim, Yujin;Noh, Jaeyun;Ko, Yongho;Lee, Jaewoo;Han, Seungwoo
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.1194-1201
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    • 2022
  • The existing literature has witnessed the importance of productivity assessment and deducing factors affecting it. However, yet many models have shown limitations in practical applications in actual construction sites for process planning due to uncertainty and lack of data. This research presents a productivity assessment and database generation framework using simulation and compares the results with RSMeans to derive appropriate equipment combinations alternatives for earthwork operations. Data of 15 different conditions was collected from 5 different construction sites. Prediction accuracy above 90% were achieved for the simulation models with average error rate of 7.4%. The construction productivity assessment framework presented in this study is expected to be highly applicable to operation planning for earthwork operations.

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