• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.311-323
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• 2023

In order to reduce disaster damage by localized heavy rains, floods, and urban inundation, it is important to know in advance whether natural disasters occur. Currently, heavy rain watch and heavy rain warning by the criteria of the Korea Meteorological Administration are being issued in Korea. However, since this one criterion is applied to the whole country, we can not clearly recognize heavy rain damage for a specific region in advance. Therefore, in this paper, we tried to reset the current criteria for a special weather report which considers the regional characteristics and to predict the damage caused by rainfall after 1 hour. The study area was selected as Gyeonggi-province, where has more frequent heavy rain damage than other regions. Then, the rainfall inducing disaster or hazard-triggering rainfall was set by utilizing hourly rainfall and heavy rain damage data, considering the local characteristics. The heavy rain damage prediction model was developed by a decision tree model and a random forest model, which are machine learning technique and by rainfall inducing disaster and rainfall data. In addition, long short-term memory and deep neural network models were used for predicting rainfall after 1 hour. The predicted rainfall by a developed prediction model was applied to the trained classification model and we predicted whether the rain damage after 1 hour will be occurred or not and we called this as 1ST-Model. The 1ST-Model can be used for preventing and preparing heavy rain disaster and it is judged to be of great contribution in reducing damage caused by heavy rain.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.427-435
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• 2023

Changes in flowering time due to weather fluctuations impact plant growth and ecosystem dynamics. Accurate prediction of flowering timing is crucial for effective forest ecosystem management. This study uses a process-based model to predict flowering timing in 2023 for five major tree species in Korean forests. Models are developed based on nine years (2009-2017) of flowering data for Abeliophyllum distichum, Robinia pseudoacacia, Rhododendron schlippenbachii, Rhododendron yedoense f. poukhanense, and Sorbus commixta, distributed across 28 regions in the country, including mountains. Weather data from the Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS) and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) are utilized as inputs for the models. The Single Triangle Degree Days (STDD) and Growing Degree Days (GDD) models, known for their superior performance, are employed to predict flowering dates. Daily temperature readings at a 1 km spatial resolution are obtained by merging AMOS and KMA data. To improve prediction accuracy nationwide, random forest machine learning is used to generate region-specific correction coefficients. Applying these coefficients results in minimal prediction errors, particularly for Abeliophyllum distichum, Robinia pseudoacacia, and Rhododendron schlippenbachii, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 1.2, 0.6, and 1.2 days, respectively. Model performance is evaluated using ten random sampling tests per species, selecting the model with the highest R². The models with applied correction coefficients achieve R² values ranging from 0.07 to 0.7, except for Sorbus commixta, and exhibit a final explanatory power of 0.75-0.9. This study provides valuable insights into seasonal changes in plant phenology, aiding in identifying honey harvesting seasons affected by abnormal weather conditions, such as those of Robinia pseudoacacia. Detailed information on flowering timing for various plant species and regions enhances understanding of the climate-plant phenology relationship.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.135-149
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• 2020

Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.27-34
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• 2016

The results of investigation on the spatial composition and landscape characteristics of Shimwon-pavilion garden built and enjoyed by Jo Byeong-sun in 1937 during the period of Japanese colonialism based on 'Shimwon-pavilion Soosukgii(水石記)' and 'Shimwon-pavilion Poem of 25 Sceneries(二十五詠)' contained in 'Anthology of Giheon(寄軒)' are as follows. 1. Shimwon-pavilion garden is assumed as Byeol-Seo garden based on the planning background and contents of Gimun and the observations on spot. By its location, it is classified as 'Planted forest' with a pine forest in the north and 'Byeol-Seo of mooring type' with Guyacheon flowing in the garden. It is about 400m away from the main house in the straight-line distance. 2. The meaning and attributes of reclusiveness are well represented in the 'screening structures' all around Shimwon-pavilion garden with Hakrimsan, a Gasan(假山) in the north, vines on Chwibyeong(翠屛) in the east and west, Eunbyeong(隱屛) of stone walls along with Guyacheon in the south, which shows the spirit of Giheon who adored the Taoistic life. 3. Shimwon-pavilion garden, located in the Songrimsa, a temple of thousand years, is a place of consilience where Buddhism was accepted, Taoistic life was pursued with Tao Yuan-ming's philosophy regarding rural areas and romantic sensibilities of Li Po, called poem master(詩仙), the confucian values of Zhu Xi were realized. Giheon intended to build and enjoy this place as a microcosm and shelther where he unfolded his own view of learning and cultivated his mind. 4. 25 sceneries on Shimwon-pavilion consist of 5 sceneries in the space of pavilion(architecture) and 20 sceneries in the outer garden. First, 5 sceneries consist of ancillary rooms for various uses, including Jeongunru, Amsushil, Wiryujae, Iyeoldang, and Jeong-Gak Shimwon-pavilion embracing them, which shows that Shimwon-pavilion is a place to foster younger students. And 20 scenary is divided into 9 sceneries on the natural spaces and 11 artificially created facilities. 9 sceneries are engraved on the rocks as described in 'Seokgyeonggi'. 5. 4 sceneries of the indoor scenery lexemes(亭閣 心遠亭 怡悅堂 停雲樓 闇修室) were intended to be recognized by the framed pictures, 5 places among the scenery lexemes in garden(龜巖 醒石 隱屛 兩忘臺 東槃) by letters carved on the rocks, and 8 places(君子沼 杞泉 天光雲影橋 芳園 槐岡 柳堤 石扉 東翠屛) by sign stones, but signs of 8 sceneries are not currently identified because they have been be swept away and demolished. 6. A variety of plant landscapes with various meanings and water landscape with various types are contained in 25 sceneries - Sophora symbolizing a tree for scholar in Gehgang(槐岡), Willow symbolizing Tao Yuanming and continued vitality in Yooje(柳堤), Boxthorn symbolizing family togetherness in spring(杞泉), vines and herbal plants and waterfalls(隱瀑), shallow pond(君子沼), pond(湯池), water hole(杞泉), water flowing in the middle of rock(盤陀石), water flowing between the rocks(水口巖). 7. While Shimwon-pavilion garden is a garden near the water, the active involvements with 11 sceneries directly built is distinguished. The other pavilion gardens are faithful in engraving the names by setting the scenery lexemes of the nature-oriented Gyeong(景) and Gok(曲) near and far, but Shimwon-pavilion garden is a garden for active learning(修景) with the spaces built to match with the beautiful nature and to show the depths of space off.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.93-112
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• 2015

Depending on the change in consumer's consumption pattern, existing retail shop has evolved in hypermarket or convenience store offering grocery and daily products mostly. Therefore, it is important to maintain the inventory levels and proper product configuration for effectively utilize the limited space in the retail store and increasing sales. Accordingly, this study proposed proper product configuration and inventory level strategy based on RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) model and SOM(self-organizing map) for manage the retail shop effectively. RFM model is analytic model to analyze customer behaviors based on the past customer's buying activities. And it can differentiates important customers from large data by three variables. R represents recency, which refers to the last purchase of commodities. The latest consuming customer has bigger R. F represents frequency, which refers to the number of transactions in a particular period and M represents monetary, which refers to consumption money amount in a particular period. Thus, RFM method has been known to be a very effective model for customer segmentation. In this study, using a normalized value of the RFM variables, SOM cluster analysis was performed. SOM is regarded as one of the most distinguished artificial neural network models in the unsupervised learning tool space. It is a popular tool for clustering and visualization of high dimensional data in such a way that similar items are grouped spatially close to one another. In particular, it has been successfully applied in various technical fields for finding patterns. In our research, the procedure tries to find sales patterns by analyzing product sales records with Recency, Frequency and Monetary values. And to suggest a business strategy, we conduct the decision tree based on SOM results. To validate the proposed procedure in this study, we adopted the M-mart data collected between 2014.01.01~2014.12.31. Each product get the value of R, F, M, and they are clustered by 9 using SOM. And we also performed three tests using the weekday data, weekend data, whole data in order to analyze the sales pattern change. In order to propose the strategy of each cluster, we examine the criteria of product clustering. The clusters through the SOM can be explained by the characteristics of these clusters of decision trees. As a result, we can suggest the inventory management strategy of each 9 clusters through the suggested procedures of the study. The highest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have high level of the inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where it can be increasing customer's path. In contrast, the lowest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have low level of inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where visibility is low. The highest R value cluster's products is usually new releases products, and need to be placed on the front of the store. And, manager should decrease inventory levels gradually in the highest F value cluster's products purchased in the past. Because, we assume that cluster has lower R value and the M value than the average value of good. And it can be deduced that product are sold poorly in recent days and total sales also will be lower than the frequency. The procedure presented in this study is expected to contribute to raising the profitability of the retail store. The paper is organized as follows. The second chapter briefly reviews the literature related to this study. The third chapter suggests procedures for research proposals, and the fourth chapter applied suggested procedure using the actual product sales data. Finally, the fifth chapter described the conclusion of the study and further research.