• Title/Summary/Keyword: travel demand model

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Estimating Travel Frequency of Public Bikes in Seoul Considering Intermediate Stops (경유지를 고려한 서울시 공공자전거 통행발생량 추정 모형 개발)

  • Jonghan Park;Joonho Ko
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2023
  • Bikes have recently emerged as an alternative to carbon neutrality. To understand the demand for public bikes, we endeavored to estimate travel frequency of public bike by considering the intermediate stops. Using the GPS trajectory data of 'Ttareungyi', a public bike service in Seoul, we identified a stay point and estimated travel frequency reflecting population, land use, and physical characteristics. Application of map matching and a stay point detection algorithm revealed that stay point appeared in about 12.1% of the total trips. Compared to a trip without stay point, the trip with stay point has a longer average travel distance and travel time and a higher occurrence rate during off-peak hours. According to visualization analysis, the stay points are mainly found in parks, leisure facilities, and business facilities. To consider the stay point, the unit of analysis was set as a hexagonal grid rather than the existing rental station base. Travel frequency considering the stay point were analyzed using the Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) model. Results of our analysis revealed that the travel frequency were higher in bike infrastructure where the safety of bike users was secured, such as 'Bikepath' and 'Bike and pedestrian path'. Also, public bikes play a role as first & last mile means of access to public transportation. The measure of travel frequency was also observed to increase in life and employment centers. Considering the results of this analysis, securing safety facilities and space for users should be given priority when planning any additional expansion of bike infrastructure. Moreover, there is a necessity to establish a plan to supply bike infrastructure facilities linked to public transportation, especially the subway.

A Regionalization Model to Increase Equity of Access to Maternal and Neonatal Care Services in Iran

  • Daniali, Zahra Mohammadi;Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi;Sobhani, Farzad Movahedi;Heidarzadeh, Mohammad
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2022
  • Objectives: Access to maternal and neonatal care services (MNCS) is an important goal of health policy in developing countries. In this study, we proposed a 3-level hierarchical location-allocation model to maximize the coverage of MNCS providers in Iran. Methods: First, the necessary criteria for designing an MNCS network were explored. Birth data, including gestational age and birth weight, were collected from the data bank of the Iranian Maternal and Neonatal Network national registry based on 3 service levels (I, II, and III). Vehicular travel times between the points of demand and MNCS providers were considered. Alternative MNCS were mapped in some cities to reduce access difficulties. Results: It was found that 130, 121, and 86 MNCS providers were needed to respond to level I, II, and III demands, respectively, in 373 cities. Service level III was not available in 39 cities within the determined travel time, which led to an increased average travel time of 173 minutes to the nearest MNCS provider. Conclusions: This study revealed inequalities in the distribution of MNCS providers. Management of the distribution of MNCS providers can be used to enhance spatial access to health services and reduce the risk of neonatal mortality and morbidity. This method may provide a sustainable healthcare solution at the policy and decision-making level for regional, or even universal, healthcare networks.

A Theoretical Analysis of Probabilistic DDHV Estimation Models (확률적인 중방향 설계시간 교통량 산정 모형에 관한 이론적 해석)

  • Cho, Jun-Han;Kim, Seong-Ho;Rho, Jeong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2008
  • This paper is described the concepts and limitations for the traditional directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to establish an estimation method of probabilistic directional design hour volume in order to improve the limitation for the traditional approach method. To express the traffic congestion of specific road segment, this paper proposed the link travel time as the probability that the road capacity can accommodate a certain traffic demand at desired service level. Also, the link travel time threshold was derived from chance-constrained stochastic model. Such successive probabilistic process could determine optimal ranked design hour volume and directional design hour volume. Therefore, the probabilistic directional design hour volume can consider the traffic congestion and economic aspect in road planning and design stage. It is hoped that this study will provide a better understanding of various issues involved in the short term prediction of directional design hourly volume on different types of roads.

The Development of Dynamic Model for Long-Term Simulation in Water Distribution Systems (상수관망시스템에서의 장기간 모의를 위한 동역학적 모형의 개발)

  • Park, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2007
  • In this study, a long-term unsteady simulation model has been developed using rigid water column theory which is more accurate than Extended-period model and more efficient comparing with water-hammer simulation model. The developed model is applied to 24-hours unsteady simulation considering daily water-demand and water-hammer analysis caused by closing a valve. For the case of 24-hours daily simulation, the pressure of each node decreases as the water demand increase, and when the water demand decrease, the pressure increases. During the simulation, the amplitudes of flow and pressure variation are different in each node and the pattern of flow variation as well as water demand is quite different than that of KYPIPE2. Such discrepancy necessitates the development of unsteady flow analysis model in water distribution network system. When the model is applied to water-hammer analysis, the pressure and flow variation occurred simultaneously through the entire network system by neglecting the compressibility of water. Although water-hammer model shows the lag of travel time due to fluid elasticity, in the aspect of pressure and flow fluctuation, the trend of overall variation and quantity of the result are similar to that of water-hammer model. This model is expected for the analysis of gradual long-term unsteady flow variations providing computational accuracy and efficiency as well as identifying pollutant dispersion, pressure control, leakage reduction corresponding to flow-demand pattern, and management of long-term pipeline net work systems related with flowrate and pressure variation in pipeline network systems

An Application of Multinomial Logit Model to Jongro Corridor Travellers (종로축 출근통행에 대한 "로-짓" 모형의 적용)

  • 원제무
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.103-119
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    • 1984
  • 복잡다기해지는 도시교통문제를 효율적으로 대처하려면 제도시교통정책에 의한 교 통분담율효과를 사전에 추정할 수 있어야 한다. 단기간의 교통분담율효과를 추정하는데 미 국 및 구라파 등지에서 널리 이용되고 있는 모형이 개별교통모형(Disaggregate Travel Demand Model)이다. 본 연구의 목적은 로짓모형(Multinomial Logit Model)을 서울시의 종 로축을 이용하는 출근통행자를 대상으로 실시한 조사결과에 적용하여 매개함수(Parameters) 를 추정함에 있다. 조사는 1980년7월5일부터 7월15일까지 10일간 종로축을 이용하는 통행자 536명에게 실시되었다. 조사실시전 서울시의 교통체계의 특성과 통행자의 행태를 면밀히 분 석하여 적합한 변수를 선정하였다. 여러 가지로 변수와 표본의 변형을 시도한 결과 교통비 용을 소득으로 나눈 변수와 시기시간(OVTT)을 거리로 나눈 변수를 포함한 모형이 가장 논 리적인 것으로 나타났다. 한편 표본은 고소득층과 저소득층으로 구분하여 추정한 모형이 비 교적 만족스러운 결과를 나타내었다. 이는 우리나라 대도시의 경우 소득계층에 따라 교통수 단선택범위가 한정되기 때문이다. 마지막으로 고소득층과 저소득층의 시간가치를 각각 산정 하였는바, 이는 교통시간의 매개변수와 교통비용의 매개변수를 나눔으로서 구해질 수 있다. 시간가치는 고소득층은 910원 저소득층은 582원으로 각각 산출되었다.

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Development of A Dynamic Departure Time Choice Model based on Heterogeneous Transit Passengers (이질적 지하철승객 기반의 동적 출발시간선택모형 개발 (도심을 목적지로 하는 단일 지하철노선을 중심으로))

  • 김현명;임용택;신동호;백승걸
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.119-134
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    • 2001
  • This paper proposed a dynamic transit vehicle simulation model and a dynamic transit passengers simulation model, which can simultaneously simulate the transit vehicles and passengers traveling on a transit network, and also developed an algorithm of dynamic departure time choice model based on individual passenger. The proposed model assumes that each passenger's behavior is heterogeneous based on stochastic process by relaxing the assumption of homogeneity among passengers and travelers have imperfect information and bounded rationality to more actually represent and to simulate each passenger's behavior. The proposed model integrated a inference and preference reforming procedure into the learning and decision making process in order to describe and to analyze the departure time choices of transit passengers. To analyze and evaluate the model an example transit line heading for work place was used. Numerical results indicated that in the model based on heterogeneous passengers the travelers' preference influenced more seriously on the departure time choice behavior, while in the model based on homogeneous passengers it does not. The results based on homogeneous passengers seemed to be unrealistic in the view of rational behavior. These results imply that the aggregated travel demand models such as the traditional network assignment models based on user equilibrium, assuming perfect information on the network, homogeneity and rationality, might be different from the real dynamic travel demand patterns occurred on actual network.

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Dynamic traffic assignment based on arrival time-based OD flows (도착시간 기준 기종점표를 이용한 동적통행배정)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Myeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2009
  • A dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) has recently been implemented in many practical projects. The core of dynamic model is the inclusion of time scale. If excluding the time dimension from a DTA model, the framework of a DTA model is similar to that of static model. Similar to static model, with given exogenous travel demand, a DTA model loads vehicles on the network and finds an optimal solution satisfying a pre-defined route choice rule. In most DTA models, the departure pattern of given travel demand is predefined and assumed as a fixed pattern, although the departure pattern of driver is changeable depending on a network traffic condition. Especially, for morning peak commute where most drivers have their preferred arrival time, the departure time, therefore, should be modeled as an endogenous variable. In this paper, the authors point out some shortcomings of current DTA model and propose an alternative approach which could overcome the shortcomings of current DTA model. The authors substitute a traditional definition for time-dependent OD table by a new definition in which the time-dependent OD table is defined as arrival time-based one. In addition, the authors develop a new DTA model which is capable of finding an equilibrium departure pattern without the use of schedule delay functions. Three types of objective function for a new DTA framework are proposed, and the solution algorithms for the three objective functions are also explained.

Modelling and Evaluation of Traffic Flow with Variable Speed Limit on Highway (연속류 가변속도제어 모형개발 및 효과분석)

  • Cho, Hye-Rim;Kim, Young-Chan;Ha, Dong-Ik
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.16-26
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    • 2011
  • Variable speed limit(VSL) is one of the highway ITS techniques designed to prevent accidents and traffic slow down by reducing congestion or speed variation between vehicles and lanes prior to arrive at the accident location by limiting speed. In Korea, while people have recognized the need for variable speed limit beginning with Seoul's urban expressway and installed facilities in order to provide guide for speed limit per lane and lane use, there has not been enough development of algorithm for internal administration as well as research on the basic principles behind administering variable speed limit. This study is for modeling and evaluating the VSL strategies based on the traffic flow theory. Supply-Demand method of the Cell Transmission Model is applied to demonstrate the traffic features and shockwaves to upstream of the bottleneck with/without VSL. We verified the explanation of Cell Transmission Model for the numerical example. and as the result, it is found that VSL strategies can reduce the total travel time in the congested section and variation of the speed. It means VSL is useful to improve the traffic condition and the safety on highway

Analysis of Tourism Demand Elasticities by Travel Time Distance in Korea (국민국내관광객의 이동시간거리에 대한 수요탄력성 분석)

  • Kwon, J. Younghyun;Kim, Euijune
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.65-81
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the tourism demand elasticity of travel time distance on domestic destinations in Korea. Piecewise Linear Regression Model was applied to estimate the elasticities based on the Korea National Tourism Survey. It is found that the tourism demand elasticities by tourist distances decrease by 0.005% if time distance increase by 1 minute. In the first section, the most nearest distance is less than 11.6 minutes from the origin, elasticities increases by 0.206% of tourism demand, whereas in second section (from 11.7 to 75.1 minutes) and third section (more than 75.2 minutes) it decreases by 0.106% and 0.021%, respectively. The third section with sharply rising distance decay rate can be interpreted as the Effective Tourism Exclusion Zone of domestic tourists in Korea. Additionally, the more tourism demand is appeared at the younger age group than older age group, single travellers than group travellers, and people in Metropolitan Areas than in smaller cities.

Development of Mode Choice Model for the Implementation of Next-generation High Speed Train(HEMU-430X) (차세대 고속열차 도입에 따른 수단분담모형 개발 및 적용방안)

  • LEE, Kwang Sub;CHUNG, Sung Bong;EOM, Jin Ki;NAMKUNG, Baek Kyu;KIM, Seok Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.461-469
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    • 2015
  • The next generation high-speed train, HEMU-430X, was developed and is now being tested. However, the existing mode choice models based on the guidelines for feasibility studies do not consider a high-speed train with a higher speed than KTX. This limitation might result in inaccurate demand forecasting. In this research, a stated preference survey was conducted in order to supplement the problem by considering the characteristics of HEMU-430X. Based on the survey results, this research developed two mode choice models, including a multinomial logit model and a nested logit model. For this purpose, the utility functions of travel time and travel costs were estimated using a Limdep 8.0 NLOGIT 3.0 package. After comparing the two models, it was concluded that the nested logit model is appropriate. The paper suggested a plan to implement the nested logit model and presented a policy implication.