• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.93-105
• /
• 2014

This study evaluated the relative efficiency of mobile emission reduction countermeasures through a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach and determined the priority of countermeasures based on the efficiency. Ten countermeasures currently applied for reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution materials were selected to make a scenario for evaluation. The reduction volumes of four air pollution materials(CO, HC, NOX, PM) and three greenhouse gases($CO_2$, $CH_4$, $N_2O$) for the year 2027, which is the last target year, were calculated by utilizing both a travel demand forecasting model and variable composite emission factors with respect to future travel patterns. To estimate the relative effectiveness of reduction countermeasures, this study performed a super-efficiency analysis among the Data Envelopment Analysis models. It was found that expanding the participation in self car-free day program was the most superior reduction measurement with 1.879 efficiency points, followed by expansion of exclusive bus lanes and promotion of CNG hybrid bus diffusion. The results of this study do not represent the absolute data for prioritizing reduction countermeasures for mobile greenhouse gases and air pollution materials. However, in terms of presenting the direction for establishing reduction countermeasures, this study may contribute to policy selection for mobile emission reduction measures and the establishment of systematic mid- and long-term reduction measures.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.33 no.5
• /
• pp.461-469
• /
• 2015

The next generation high-speed train, HEMU-430X, was developed and is now being tested. However, the existing mode choice models based on the guidelines for feasibility studies do not consider a high-speed train with a higher speed than KTX. This limitation might result in inaccurate demand forecasting. In this research, a stated preference survey was conducted in order to supplement the problem by considering the characteristics of HEMU-430X. Based on the survey results, this research developed two mode choice models, including a multinomial logit model and a nested logit model. For this purpose, the utility functions of travel time and travel costs were estimated using a Limdep 8.0 NLOGIT 3.0 package. After comparing the two models, it was concluded that the nested logit model is appropriate. The paper suggested a plan to implement the nested logit model and presented a policy implication.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.23 no.3 s.81
• /
• pp.7-19
• /
• 2005

Mode choice Analysis is essential analysis stage in transportation demand forecasting process. Therefore, methods for calibration and forecasting of mode choice model in aspect of practical view need to be discussed in depth. Since 1980s, choice models, especially Logit model, are spread widely and rapidly over academic area, research institutes and consulting firms in Korea like other developed countries in the world. However, the process of calibration and parameter estimation for practical application was not clearly explained in previous papers and reports. This study tried to explain clearly the calibration process of mode choice step by step and suggested a forecasting mode choice model that can be applicable in real policy analysis by using household survey data of Pusan metropolitan are. The study also suggested a way of estimating attributes which was not observed during the household survey commonly such as travel time and cost of unchosen alternative modes. The study summarized the statistical results of model specification for four different Logit models as a process to upgrade model capability of explanation for real traveler's choice behaviors. By using the analysis results, it also calculated the value of travel time and compared them with the values of other previous studies to test reliability of the estimated model.

• The Journal of Bigdata
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.189-200
• /
• 2023

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Korea's wine market had shrunk as other countries. However, right after the pandemic, Korea's imported wine consumption had been increased 69.6%. Because of the ban on overseas travel, wine was consumed in the domestic market. And consumption of high-end wines were increased significantly due to revenge spending and home drinking. However, from 2022 Korea's wine market has begun to shrink sharply again. Therefore this study forecasts the size of imported wine market by 2032 to provide useful information to wine related business entities. KITA(Korea International Trade Association)'s 95 time-series data per quarter from Q1 of 2001 to Q3 of 2023 was utilized in this research. The accuracy of model was tested based on value of MAPE. And ARIMA model was chosen to forecast the size of market value and Winter's multiplicative model was used for the size of market volume. The result of ARIMA model for the value (MAPE=10.56%) shows that the size of market value in 2032 will be increased up to USD $1,023,619, CAGR=6.22% which is 101% bigger than its size of 2023. On the other hand, the volume of imported wine market (MAPE=10.56%) will be increased up to 64,691,329 tons, CAGR=-0.61% which is only 15.12% bigger than its size of 2023. The result implies that the value of Korea's wine market will continue to grow despite the recent decline. And the high-end wine market will account for most of the increase.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.30 no.6
• /
• pp.81-92
• /
• 2012

The current Korean preliminary feasibility study guidebook provides a simple method for determining the impact area of a transportation project without taking its characteristics into account, which often leads travelers to switch their travel modes. Hence, this study develops a comprehensive methodology for defining the impact area when evaluating railroad projects, which can significantly affect travel mode choice behaviors. To develop the methodology, a hypothetical project was devised. The analysis results show that the convergence of mode-diverted trip rates is improved from 76% to 93% by implementing the proposed method. In addition, there was a significant difference in benefits (about 10.9 billion won) between adopting the current method and the proposed method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.157-167
• /
• 2009

This study deals with the turn penalty functions in the urban transportation demand forecasting. The objectives are to develop the penalty functions of left-turn traffic in the case of signalized intersections, and to analyze the applicability of the functions to the traffic assignment models. This is based on the background that the existing models can not effectively account for the delays of left-turn traffic which is bigger than that of through traffic. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attention to developing the penalty functions based on the degrees of saturation by simulation results of Transyt-7F, and analyzing the applicability of the functions by the case study of Cheongju. The major findings are the followings. First, two penalty functions developed according to the degrees of saturation, are evaluated to be all statistically significant. Second, the results that the above functions apply to the Cheongju network, are analyzed to be converging, though the iteration numbers increase. Third, the link volumes forecasted by turn penalty functions are evaluated to be better fitted to the observed data than those by the existing models. Finally, the differences of traffic volumes assigned by two functions, which are exponential and divided forms, are analyzed to be very small.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
• /
• v.1 no.2 s.2
• /
• pp.105-112
• /
• 1993

The conventional method for solving transportation problems were mainly based on numerical methods, where the understanding of outputs is not easy. Some difficulties come from the seperation of three key steps-the preparation of input for transportation traffic simulation, and model output interpretation. GSIS can help to eliminate some of thoses difficulties by combining graphics, database, and transportation plaining models. As pilot study, this study shows an application of Geovision GSIS to TRANPLAN transportation planning model that is based on four-step travel demand forecasting procedure. Accrued benefits and procedure are presented.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.45-55
• /
• 1986

This study proposes the explanatory indices of urban traffic for the purpose of solving the ambiguity of selection of the explanatory variables, which always raises problems in case of the travel-demand forecasting in the urban transportation planning, and develops optimal urban traffic generation models. The multiple regression models for objective traffic generation are developed by using the proposed explanatory inidces. Objective variables that can be explained by one explanatory variable are modified into simple regression type (Y=bX) in order to ensure the nonnegativity of traffic generation. Similarities are noted in the generaton characteristics of generated traffic from homogeneous land-use activity. Objective variables that can not be explained by multiple variable, such as trip attraction of school and trip generation of social-recreation, are classified by the characteristics of each zone. And traffic generation forecasting models are built as homogeneous zone group, the validity of each model being tested by a statistical method. It is desired that the forecasting precision is in improved by easy and simple method. Accordingly, trip generation rates are calculated from each land-use activity, and trip generation rates for practical application are proposed by considering their stability.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.24 no.5 s.91
• /
• pp.89-108
• /
• 2006

Korea has been entering the ageing society as the population of age over 65 shared over 7% since the year 2000. The ageing society needs to have transportation facility considering elderly people's travel behavior. This study aims to understand the elderly people's travel behavior using recent data in Korea. The activity schedule approach begins with travel outcomes are part of an activitv scheduling decision. For tho?e approach. used discrete choice models (especially. Nested Logit Model) to address the basic modeling problem capturing decision interaction among the many choice dimensions of the immense activity schedule choice set The day activity schedule is viewed as a sot of tours and at-home activity episodes tied togather with overarching day activity pattern using the Seoul Metropolitan Area Transportation Survey data, which was conducted in June, 2002. Decisions about a specific tour in the schedule are conditioned by the choice of day activity pattern. The day activity scheduling model estimated in this study consists of tours interrelated in a day activity pattern. The day activity pattern model represents the basic decision of activity participation and priorities and places each activity in a configuration of tours and at-home episodes. Each pattern alternative is defined by the primary activity of the day, whether the primary activity occurs at home or away, and the type of tour for the primary activity. In travel mode choice of the elderly and non-workers, especially, travel cost was found to be important in understanding interpersonal variations in mode choice behavior though, travel time was found to be less important factor in choosing travel mode. In addition, although, generally, the elderly was likely to choose transit mode, private mode was preferred for the elderly over 75 years old owing to weakened physical health for such things as going up and down of stairs. Therefore. as entering the ageing society, transit mode should be invested heavily in transportation facility Planning tor improving elderly transportation service. Although the model has not yet been validated in before-and-after prediction studies. this study gives strong evidence of its behavioral soundness, current practicality. and potential for improving reliability of transportation Projects superior to those of the best existing systems in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.18 no.5
• /
• pp.83-97
• /
• 2000

The traffic management schemes through traffic signal control and information provision could be effective when the link-level data and trip-level data were used simultaneously in analysis Procedures. But, because the trip-level data. such as origin, destination and departure time, can not be obtained through the existing surveillance systems directly. It is needed to estimate it using the link-level data which can be obtained easily. Therefore the objective of this study is to develop the model to estimate O-D demand using only the link flows in highway network as a real time. The methodological approaches in this study are kalman filer, least-square method and normalized least-square method. The kalman filter is developed in the basis of the bayesian update. The normalized least-square method is developed in the basis of the least-square method and the natural constraint equation. These three models were experimented using two kinds of simulated data. The one has two abrupt changing Patterns in traffic flow rates The other is a 24 hours data that has three Peak times in a day Among these models, kalman filer has Produced more accurate and adaptive results than others. Therefore it is seemed that this model could be used in traffic demand management. control, travel time forecasting and dynamic assignment, and so forth.