• Title/Summary/Keyword: transition probabilities

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The Application of Multi-State Model to the Bipolar Disorder Study (양극성 장애 환자의 기분 전환 현상 연구를 위한 다단계 모형의 적용)

  • Kim, Yang-Jin;Kang, Si-Hyun;Kim, Chang-Yoon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.449-458
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    • 2007
  • Bipolar disorder, also known as manic-depressive illness, is a brain disorder that causes unusual shifts in person's mood, energy, and ability to function. Compared with manic episode, the depression episode causes more serious results such as restless, loss of interest or pleasure, or thoughts of death or suicide and the cure rate of depression episode is lower than that of manic episode. Furthermore, a long term use of antidepressants in bipolar patients may result in manic episode. Our interest is to investigate the effect of antidepressant on switch of moods of bipolar patients and to estimate the transition probabilities of switch between moods, depression and (hypo) manic. In this study, three approaches are applied in terms of multi state model. Parametric model is applied using left censoring data and nonparametric model is implemented under illness-death model with counting process. In order to estimate the effect of covariates, a multiplicative model is used. These all methods have similar results.

Prediction of Urban Land Cover Change Using Multilayer Perceptron and Markov Chain Analysis (다층 퍼셉트론(MLP)과 마코프 체인 분석(MCA)을 이용한 도심지 피복 변화 예측)

  • Bhang, Kon Joon;Sarker, Tanni;Lee, Jin-Duk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2018
  • The change of land covers in 2026 was prediceted based on the change of urbanization in 1996, 2006 and 2016 in Seoul and surrounding areas in this study. Landsat images were used as the basic data, and MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) and MCA (Markov Chain Analysis) were integrated for future prediction for the study area. The land cover transition potentials were calculated by setting up sub-models in MLP and the driving factors of land cover transition from 1996 to 2006 and transition probabilities were calculated using MCA to generate the land cover map of 2016. This was compared to the land cover map of 2016 from Landsat. MLP and MCA were verified and the future land covers of 2026 were predicted using the land cover map from Landsat in 2006 and 2016. As a result, it was predicted that the major land cover changes from 1996 to 2006 were from Barren Land and Grass Land to Builtup Area, and the same trend of transition will be remained for 2026. This study is meaningful in that it is applied for the first time to predict the future coating change in Seoul and surrounding areas by the MLP-MCA method.

A new human-robot interaction method using semantic symbols

  • Park, Sang-Hyun;Hwang, Jung-Hoon;Kwon, Dong-Soo
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.2005-2010
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    • 2004
  • As robots become more prevalent in human daily life, situations requiring interaction between humans and robots will occur more frequently. Therefore, human-robot interaction (HRI) is becoming increasingly important. Although robotics researchers have made many technical developments in their field, intuitive and easy ways for most common users to interact with robots are still lacking. This paper introduces a new approach to enhance human-robot interaction using a semantic symbol language and proposes a method to acquire the intentions of robot users. In the proposed approach, each semantic symbol represents knowledge about either the environment or an action that a robot can perform. Users'intentions are expressed by symbolized multimodal information. To interpret a users'command, a probabilistic approach is used, which is appropriate for interpreting a freestyle user expression or insufficient input information. Therefore, a first-order Markov model is constructed as a probabilistic model, and a questionnaire is conducted to obtain state transition probabilities for this Markov model. Finally, we evaluated our model to show how well it interprets users'commands.

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Saturated Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.11 DCF with Imperfect Channel Sensing (불완전 채널 감지하의 IEEE 802.11 DCF 포화상태 성능 분석)

  • Shin, Soo-Young;Chae, Seog
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, performance of IEEE 802.11 carrier-sense multiple access with collision-avoidance (CSMA/CA) protocols in saturated traffic conditions is presented taking into account the impact of imperfect channel sensing. The imperfect channel sensing includes both missed-detection and false alarm and their impact on the performance of IEEE 802.11 is analyzed and expressed as a closed form. To include the imperfect channel sensing at the physical layer, we modified the state transition probabilities of well-known two state Markov process model. Simulation results closely match the theoretical expressions confirming the effectiveness of the proposed model. Based on both theoretical and simulated results, the probability of detection is concluded as a dominant factor for the performance of IEEE 802.11.

A Study on Fuzzy Interacting Multiple Model Algorithm for Maneuvering Target Tracking (기동 표적 추적을 위한 퍼지 IMM 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Hyun-Sik;Kim Jin-Soek;Hwang Soo-Bok
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.7 no.4 s.19
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2004
  • The tracking algorithm based on the interacting multiple model(IMM) requires a considerable number of sub-models for the various maneuvering targets in order to have a good performance. But it is not feasible to use the nm algorithm in the real system because of the computational burden. Therefore, we need an algorithm which requires less computing resources while maintaining a good performance. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy interacting multiple model algorithm(FIMMA) for the tracking of maneuvering targets, which uses a minimal number of sub-models by considering the maneuvering properties and adjusts the mode transition probabilities by using the mode probability as a fuzzy input. In order to verify the performance of FIMMA, the developed algorithm is applied to the tracking of i borne targets. Simulation results show that the FIMMA is very effective in the tracking of maneuvering targets.

Spectral Clustering with Sparse Graph Construction Based on Markov Random Walk

  • Cao, Jiangzhong;Chen, Pei;Ling, Bingo Wing-Kuen;Yang, Zhijing;Dai, Qingyun
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.9 no.7
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    • pp.2568-2584
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    • 2015
  • Spectral clustering has become one of the most popular clustering approaches in recent years. Similarity graph constructed on the data is one of the key factors that influence the performance of spectral clustering. However, the similarity graphs constructed by existing methods usually contain some unreliable edges. To construct reliable similarity graph for spectral clustering, an efficient method based on Markov random walk (MRW) is proposed in this paper. In the proposed method, theMRW model is defined on the raw k-NN graph and the neighbors of each sample are determined by the probability of the MRW. Since the high order transition probabilities carry complex relationships among data, the neighbors in the graph determined by our proposed method are more reliable than those of the existing methods. Experiments are performed on the synthetic and real-world datasets for performance evaluation and comparison. The results show that the graph obtained by our proposed method reflects the structure of the data better than those of the state-of-the-art methods and can effectively improve the performance of spectral clustering.

Efficient Markov Feature Extraction Method for Image Splicing Detection (접합영상 검출을 위한 효율적인 마코프 특징 추출 방법)

  • Han, Jong-Goo;Park, Tae-Hee;Eom, Il-Kyu
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents an efficient Markov feature extraction method for detecting splicing forged images. The Markov states used in our method are composed of the difference between DCT coefficients in the adjacent blocks. Various first-order Markov state transition probabilities are extracted as features for splicing detection. In addition, we propose a feature reduction algorithm by analysing the distribution of the Markov probability. After training the extracted feature vectors using the SVM classifier, we determine whether the presence of the image splicing forgery. Experimental results verify that the proposed method shows good detection performance with a smaller number of features compared to existing methods.

The study on target tracking filter using interacting multiple model for tracking maneuvering target (기동표적 추적을 위한 상호작용다수모델 추적필터에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seung-Woo
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2007
  • Fire Control System(FCS) errors can be classified as hardware errors and software errors, and one of the software errors is from target tracking filter which estimates target's location, velocity, acceleration, and so on. It affects function of ballistic calculation equipment significantly. For gun to form predicted hitting point accurately and enhance hitting rate, we need status information of target's future location. Target tracking filter algorithms consist of Single Singer Model, Fixed Gain filter algorithm, IMM, PBIMM and so on. This paper will design IMM tracking filer, which is going to be! applied to domestic warship. Target tracking filter using CV model, Song model and CRT model for IMM tracking filter is made, and tracking ability is analyzed through Monte-Carlo simulation.

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A Simulation Method for Terminal Mobilities with Regularity in Mobile Networks (이동 망에서 규칙성을 갖는 단말기의 이동성을 위한 모의실험 방안)

  • Cho Hyun-joon
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.10 no.2 s.34
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2005
  • We need to study on simulation method of user's mobility Patterns for the performance analysis of the location management in wireless mobile networks. For this purpose ,this paper presents a user mobility model of wireless mobile networks with regular Patterns Sometimes mobile users randomly move , but they show the movement characteristics that regularly change their locations in some patterns in given time slots. So, we suggest the mobility model that can describe user's time related movement patterns. This model consists of some elements-positions, transitions , transition Probabilities which are variable, and some geographical paths for each transitions. We describe the simulation method for users' mobilities with random movements and regular movements , too. The simulation results by the model show that the suggested model can generate movement scenarios having regular patterns related with location and time.

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A Novel Spectrum Access Strategy with ${\alpha}$-Retry Policy in Cognitive Radio Networks: A Queueing-Based Analysis

  • Zhao, Yuan;Jin, Shunfu;Yue, Wuyi
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.193-201
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    • 2014
  • In cognitive radio networks, the packet transmissions of the secondary users (SUs) can be interrupted randomly by the primary users (PUs). That is to say, the PU packets have preemptive priority over the SU packets. In order to enhance the quality of service (QoS) for the SUs, we propose a spectrum access strategy with an ${\alpha}$-Retry policy. A buffer is deployed for the SU packets. An interrupted SU packet will return to the buffer with probability ${\alpha}$ for later retrial, or leave the system with probability (1-${\alpha}$). For mathematical analysis, we build a preemptive priority queue and model the spectrum access strategy with an ${\alpha}$-Retry policy as a two-dimensional discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC).We give the transition probability matrix of the Markov chain and obtain the steady-state distribution. Accordingly, we derive the formulas for the blocked rate, the forced dropping rate, the throughput and the average delay of the SU packets. With numerical results, we show the influence of the retrial probability for the strategy proposed in this paper on different performance measures. Finally, based on the trade-off between different performance measures, we construct a cost function and optimize the retrial probabilities with respect to different system parameters by employing an iterative algorithm.