• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.135-138
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• 2023

In this paper, we study real-time error in the context of monitoring a binary information source through a delay system. To derive the average real-time error, we model the delay system as a discrete time Geo/D/1/1 queueing model. Using a discrete time three-dimensional Markov chain with finite state space, we analyze the queueing model. We also perform some numerical analysis on various system parameters: state transition probabilities of binary information source; transmission times; and transmission frequencies. When the state changes of the information source are positively correlated and negatively correlated, we investigate the relationship between transmission time and transmission frequency.

• The Mathematical Education
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.55-61
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• 1990

There are three objectives of this paper. First, we present an elegant and simple generalization of Abel's theorem (i .e. tile Abel summability (on the unit disk of the euclidean plane) is regular). Second, we consider the definition of Abel summability through lim (equation omitted) which immediately has clear connexctions with CeSARO summability and Cesaro sums (equation omitted). This approach examplifies some simple aspects of so-called Tauberian theorems of divergent series. Third, we present the applications of the previous results to find the limits of transition probabilities of homogeneous Marker chain. Finally, we explain why the original Abel's theorem which looks obvious is difficult to be proved, and can not be proved analytically.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.277-311
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• 2010

The powerful association between poverty and mental health has been recognized for many decades in the Western Countries. Despite growing poverty studies, there has been little attention to the association between poverty and mental health in Korea. In this article we examine the effects of the mental health on the poverty status transition. In this study we draw on nationally representative data from the The Korean Welfare Panel Study, to estimate the effects of depression and self-respects on the poverty status transition. Major findings are as follows. First, we find that there are mental health disparities between poor and non-poor classes. The mental health conditions of the poor are worse than the non-poor. Second, we find the strong correlations between the mental health and poverty status transition. Whether poor family exits poverty or not depends on the household head's mental health. Third, poverty experiences are different depending on the mental health conditions. To the mental ill-health family, the probabilities of poverty-exit are much lower and poverty duration is more long. Fourth, we find that family poverty status transitions are very significantly related with household head's mental health from the logistic model analysis. These findings suggest that there is a strong relationship between poor mental health and the experience of poverty in Korea. They also suggest that intervention programs to enhance the mental health of the poor are needed in order to reduce the poverty problem in Korea.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.201-209
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• 2013

Objectives: The goal of this study was to perform an economic analysis of a primary stenting with drug-eluting stents (DES) compared with bare-metal stents (BMS) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) admitted through an emergency room (ER) visit in Korea using population-based data. Methods: We employed a cost-minimization method using a decision analytic model with a two-year time period. Model probabilities and costs were obtained from a published systematic review and population-based data from which a retrospective database analysis of the national reimbursement database of Health Insurance Review and Assessment covering 2006 through 2010 was performed. Uncertainty was evaluated using one-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results: Among 513 979 cases with AMI during 2007 and 2008, 24 742 cases underwent stenting procedures and 20 320 patients admitted through an ER visit with primary stenting were identified in the base model. The transition probabilities of DES-to-DES, DES-to-BMS, DES-to-coronary artery bypass graft, and DES-to-balloon were 59.7%, 0.6%, 4.3%, and 35.3%, respectively, among these patients. The average two-year costs of DES and BMS in 2011 Korean won were 11 065 528 won/person and 9 647 647 won/person, respectively. DES resulted in higher costs than BMS by 1 417 882 won/person. The model was highly sensitive to the probability and costs of having no revascularization. Conclusions: Primary stenting with BMS for AMI with an ER visit was shown to be a cost-saving procedure compared with DES in Korea. Caution is needed when applying this finding to patients with a higher level of severity in health status.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.59-66
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• 2015

A stochastic modeling approach as a mathematical method for workflow intelligence is widely used for analyzing and simulating workflow models in the literature. In particular, as a resource-centric modeling approach, this paper proposes a stochastic model to represent work-handover relationships between performers in a workflow-supported social network. Calculating probabilities for the work-handover relationships are determined by two types of probabilities. One is the work-transition probability between activities, and the other is the task assignment probability between activities and performers. In this paper, we describe formal definitions of stochastic workflow models and stochastic work-handover relationship models, as well. Then, we propose an algorithm for extracting a stochastic work-handover relationship model from a stochastic workflow model. As a consequence, the proposed model ought to be useful in performing resource-centric workflow simulations and model-log comparison analyses.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.119-142
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• 2015

With the explosive growth in the volume of information, Internet users are experiencing considerable difficulties in obtaining necessary information online. Against this backdrop, ever-greater importance is being placed on a recommender system that provides information catered to user preferences and tastes in an attempt to address issues associated with information overload. To this end, a number of techniques have been proposed, including content-based filtering (CBF), demographic filtering (DF) and collaborative filtering (CF). Among them, CBF and DF require external information and thus cannot be applied to a variety of domains. CF, on the other hand, is widely used since it is relatively free from the domain constraint. The CF technique is broadly classified into memory-based CF, model-based CF and hybrid CF. Model-based CF addresses the drawbacks of CF by considering the Bayesian model, clustering model or dependency network model. This filtering technique not only improves the sparsity and scalability issues but also boosts predictive performance. However, it involves expensive model-building and results in a tradeoff between performance and scalability. Such tradeoff is attributed to reduced coverage, which is a type of sparsity issues. In addition, expensive model-building may lead to performance instability since changes in the domain environment cannot be immediately incorporated into the model due to high costs involved. Cumulative changes in the domain environment that have failed to be reflected eventually undermine system performance. This study incorporates the Markov model of transition probabilities and the concept of fuzzy clustering with CBCF to propose predictive clustering-based CF (PCCF) that solves the issues of reduced coverage and of unstable performance. The method improves performance instability by tracking the changes in user preferences and bridging the gap between the static model and dynamic users. Furthermore, the issue of reduced coverage also improves by expanding the coverage based on transition probabilities and clustering probabilities. The proposed method consists of four processes. First, user preferences are normalized in preference clustering. Second, changes in user preferences are detected from review score entries during preference transition detection. Third, user propensities are normalized using patterns of changes (propensities) in user preferences in propensity clustering. Lastly, the preference prediction model is developed to predict user preferences for items during preference prediction. The proposed method has been validated by testing the robustness of performance instability and scalability-performance tradeoff. The initial test compared and analyzed the performance of individual recommender systems each enabled by IBCF, CBCF, ICFEC and PCCF under an environment where data sparsity had been minimized. The following test adjusted the optimal number of clusters in CBCF, ICFEC and PCCF for a comparative analysis of subsequent changes in the system performance. The test results revealed that the suggested method produced insignificant improvement in performance in comparison with the existing techniques. In addition, it failed to achieve significant improvement in the standard deviation that indicates the degree of data fluctuation. Notwithstanding, it resulted in marked improvement over the existing techniques in terms of range that indicates the level of performance fluctuation. The level of performance fluctuation before and after the model generation improved by 51.31% in the initial test. Then in the following test, there has been 36.05% improvement in the level of performance fluctuation driven by the changes in the number of clusters. This signifies that the proposed method, despite the slight performance improvement, clearly offers better performance stability compared to the existing techniques. Further research on this study will be directed toward enhancing the recommendation performance that failed to demonstrate significant improvement over the existing techniques. The future research will consider the introduction of a high-dimensional parameter-free clustering algorithm or deep learning-based model in order to improve performance in recommendations.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.47-59
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• 2020

In this paper, we present the longitudinal Markov binary regression model with t-link function when its transition order is known or unknown. It is assumed that logit or probit models are considered in binary regression models. Here, t-link function can be used for more flexibility instead of the probit model since the t distribution approaches to normal distribution as the degree of freedom goes to infinity. A Markov regression model is considered because of the longitudinal data of each individual data set. We propose Bayesian method to determine the transition order of Markov regression model. In particular, we use the deviance information criterion (DIC) (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002) of possible models in order to determine the transition order of the Markov binary regression model if the transition order is known; however, we compute and compare their posterior probabilities if unknown. In order to overcome the complicated Bayesian computation, our proposed model is reconstructed by the ideas of Albert and Chib (1993), Kuo and Mallick (1998), and Erkanli et al. (2001). Our proposed method is applied to the simulated data and real data examined by Sommer et al. (1984). Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to determine the optimal model are used assuming that the transition order of the Markov regression model are known or unknown. Gelman and Rubin's method (1992) is also employed to check the convergence of the Metropolis Hastings algorithm.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.31-37
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• 2004

Wavelet transform is a useful tool for analysis and process of image. This showed good performance in image compression and noise reduction. Wavelet coefficients can be effectively modeled by hidden Markov tree(HMT) model. However, in application of HMT model to image interpolation, training procedure is needed. Moreover, the parameters obtained from training procedure do not match input image well. In this paper, the structure of HMT is used for image interpolation, and the parameters of HMT are obtained from statistical characteristics across wavelet subbands without training procedure. In the proposed method, wavelet coefficient is modeled as Gaussian mixture model(GMM). In GMM, state transition probabilities are determined from statistical transition characteristic of coefficient across subbands, and the variance of each state is estimated using the property of exponential decay of wavelet coefficient. In simulation, the proposed method shows improvement of performance compared with conventional bicubic method and the method using HMT model with training.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.443-461
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• 2009

In order to overcome the lack of Korean credit rating migration data, we consider an empirical Bayes procedure to estimate credit rating migration matrices. We derive the posterior probabilities of Korean credit rating transitions by utilizing the Moody's rating migration data and the credit rating assignments from Korean rating agency as prior information and likelihood, respectively. Metrics based upon the average transition probability are developed to characterize the migration matrices and compare our Bayesian migration matrices with some given matrices. Time series data for the metrics show that our Bayesian matrices are stable, while the matrices based on Korean data have large variation in time. The bootstrap tests demonstrate that the results from the three estimation methods are significantly different and the Bayesian matrices are more affected by Korean data than the Moody's data. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations for computing the values of a portfolio and its credit VaRs are performed to compare these migration matrices.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.13-22
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• 2012

According to recent research on leak-rate estimates to assess rupture probabilities of nuclear piping which contains a circumferential surface/through-wall cracks due to PWSCC, i.e., xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) program, it has been revealed that the use of crack shape with an idealized circumferential through-wall crack during actual crack growth can lead to overestimate of the leak-rate. Thus, for accurate estimation of the leak-rate during crack growth, the more realistic crack shape that can simulate the crack shape transition from surface crack to through-wall crack should be used. In this context, in the present study, the elastic crack opening displacement of slanted circumferential through-wall crack in thick-walled cylinder was proposed based on 3-dimensional elastic finite element fracture mechanics analyses. To propose the elastic crack opening displacement of slanted circumferential through-wall crack in thick-walled cylinder, the geometric variables affecting crack opening displacement, i.e., thickness of cylinder, reference inner crack length and slant crack ratio were systematically varied. In terms of loading conditions, axial tension, global bending moment and internal pressure were considered. The present results can be applied to calculate the leak-rate considering more realistic crack shape transition from surface crack to idealized through-wall crack, and can be expected to enhance current leak-rate estimation scheme, for instance, in xLPR program etc.