• Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.76-84
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• 2022

Purpose: We compared cost-effectiveness parameters between inpatient and home-based hospice-palliative care services for terminal cancer patients in Korea. Methods: A decision-analytic Markov model was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of hospice-palliative care in an inpatient unit (inpatient-start group) and at home (home-start group). The model adopted a healthcare system perspective, with a 9-week horizon and a 1-week cycle length. The transition probabilities were calculated based on the reports from the Korean National Cancer Center in 2017 and Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service in 2020. Quality of life (QOL) was converted to the quality-adjusted life week (QALW). Modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis were performed with TreeAge software. The weekly medical cost was estimated to be 2,481,479 Korean won (KRW) for inpatient hospice-palliative care and 225,688 KRW for home-based hospice-palliative care. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different scenarios and assumptions on the model results. Results: Compared with the inpatient-start group, the incremental cost of the home-start group was 697,657 KRW, and the incremental effectiveness based on QOL was 0.88 QALW. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the home-start group was 796,476 KRW/QALW. Based on one-way sensitivity analyses, the ICER was predicted to increase to 1,626,988 KRW/QALW if the weekly cost of home-based hospice doubled, but it was estimated to decrease to -2,898,361 KRW/QALW if death rates at home doubled. Conclusion: Home-based hospice-palliative care may be more cost-effective than inpatient hospice-palliative care. Home-based hospice appears to be affordable even if the associated medical expenditures double.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.307-314
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• 2000

This study is to investigate the recurrence characteristics of wet and dry years using over 200 year records of annual rainfall depth including Chosun Age in Korea. As well as analyzing the correlation structure of the raw data, recurrence trends of wet and dry year has been investigated based on several truncation levels (mean, $mean{\pm}0.25stdv.,\;mean{\pm}O.5stdv.,\;mean{\pm}O.75stdv.,\;mean{\pm}stdv.$). Also the transition probability among wet, dry and normal years has been derived for the same truncation levels. and finally the average return periods based on the steady-state probabilities were obtained. This analysis has been applied to not only the entire data but also partial data set of before- and after-the long dry period around 1900 in order to compare and detect the possible difference between the Chukwooki (an old raingauge invented in Chosun age) and the modem flip-bucket style. As a result, Similar pattern of dry and wet year recurrence has been found, but the return period of extremely dry years after the dry period shown longer than that before the dry period. Assuming that the dry and wet years can be defined as $mean{\pm}$ standard deviations, respectively, the return period of the wet years is shown to be about 5~6 years and that of the dry years about 6~7 years.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.61-69
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• 2021

The military pension deficit is increasing due to an increase in the average life expectancy and pension option rate, and a significant reason for this is estimated to be a continued increase in the number of military pension recipients. In terms of the soundness of military pension finances, this paper uses the Markov chain model to validate the stability of the military group, suggesting the direction of future military pension system in terms of the ratio of pension receipts to employees, and verifying the feasibility of the method applied through verification. Through this paper, we have confirmed that the initial 45,270 military personnel converge to 43,141 after a certain period of time and reach a stable state, which is expected to help us to estimate the long term size of military pension recipients to confirm the direction of national financial support. Military man who are eligible for pensions for more than 20 years have a relatively low rate of turnover or retirement compared to ordinary private groups, making it easier to define their status and simplify state transition probabilities. Therefore, it is expected that the sustainability of the military pension will be confirmed from a long term perspective by viewing the military group as a system and applying it to the Markov chain model by checking the probability of transfer of status such as promotion, maintaining the current grade, and retirement during the period.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.235-245
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• 2011

Temperature-related parameters of Panonychus citri (McGregor) (Acarina: Tetranychidae) development were estimated and a stage-structured matrix model was developed. The lower threshold temperatures were estimated as $8.4^{\circ}C$ for eggs, $9.9^{\circ}C$ for larvae, $9.2^{\circ}C$ for protonymphs, and $10.9^{\circ}C$ for deutonymphs. Thermal constants were 113.6, 29.1, 29.8, and 33.4 degree days for eggs, larvae, protonymphs, and deutonymphs, respectively. Non-linear development models were established for each stage of P. citri. In addition, temperature-dependent total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate models were developed for the construction of an oviposition model. P. citri age was categorized into five stages to construct a matrix model: eggs, larvae, protonymphs, deutonymphs and adults. For the elements in the projection matrix, transition probabilities from an age class to the next age class or the probabilities of remaining in an age class were obtained from development rate function of each stage (age classes). Also, the fecundity coefficients of adult population were expressed as the products of adult longevity completion rate (1/longevity) by temperature-dependent total fecundity. To evaluate the predictability of the matrix model, model outputs were compared with actual field data in a cool early season and hot mid to late season in 2004. The model outputs closely matched the actual field patterns within 30 d after the model was run in both the early and mid to late seasons. Therefore, the developed matrix model can be used to estimate the population density of P. citri for a period of 30 d in citrus orchards.

• Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.179-187
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• 1999

Purpose : This paper introduces a computationally inexpensive context-dependent classification of multi-echo MRI with Bayes compound decision model. In order to produce accurate region segmentation especially in homogeneous area and along boundaries of the regions, we propose a classification method that uses contextual information of local enighborhood system in the image. Material and Methods : The performance of the context free classifier over a statistically heterogeneous image can be improved if the local stationary regions in the image are disassociated from each other through the mechanism of the interaction parameters defined at he local neighborhood level. In order to improve the classification accuracy, we use the contextual information which resolves ambiguities in the class assignment of a pattern based on the labels of the neighboring patterns in classifying the image. Since the data immediately surrounding a given pixel is intimately associated with this given pixel., then if the true nature of the surrounding pixel is known this can be used to extract the true nature of the given pixel. The proposed context-dependent compound decision model uses the compound Bayes decision rule with the contextual information. As for the contextual information in the model, the directional transition probabilities estimated from the local neighborhood system are used for the interaction parameters. Results : The context-dependent classification paradigm with compound Bayesian model for multi-echo MR images is developed. Compared to context free classification which does not consider contextual information, context-dependent classifier show improved classification results especially in homogeneous and along boundaries of regions since contextual information is used during the classification. Conclusion : We introduce a new paradigm to classify multi-echo MRI using clustering analysis and Bayesian compound decision model to improve the classification results.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.5 no.10
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• pp.2627-2640
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• 1998

In this paper, we analyze the performance of the virtual cell system[1] for the transmission of IP datagrams in mobile computer communications. A virtual cell consistsof a group of physical cells shose base stationsl are implemented b recote bridges and interconnected via high speed datagram packet switched networks. Host mobility is supported at the data link layer using the distributed hierachical location information of mobile hosts. Given mobility and communication ptems among physical cells, the problem of deploying virtual cells is equivalent to the optimization cost for the entire system where interclster communication is more expesive than intracluster communication[2]. Once an iptimal partitionof disjoint clusters is obtained, we deploy the virtual cell system according to the topology of the optimal partition such that each virtual cell correspods to a cluser. To analyze the performance of the virtual cell system, we adopt a BCMP open multipel class queueing network model. In addition to mobility and communication patterns, among physical cells, the topology of the virtual cell system is used to determine service transition probabilities of the queueing network model. With various system parameters, we conduct interesting sensitivity analyses to determine network design tradeoffs. The first application of the proposed model is to determine an adequate network bandwidth for base station networking such that the networks would not become an bottleneck. We also evaluate the network vlilization and system response time due to various types of messages. For instance, when the mobile hosts begin moving fast, the migration rate will be increased. This results of the performance analysis provide a good evidence in demonsratc the sysem effciency under different assumptions of mobility and communication patterns.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.101-107
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• 2013

Because forest fires are predicted to increase in severity and frequency under global climate change with important environmental implications, an understanding of fire dynamics is critical for mitigation of these negative effects. For the reason, researchers with different background, such as ecologists, physicists, and mathematical biologists, have developed the simulation models to mimic the forest fire spread patterns. In this study, we suggested a novel model considering the wind effect. Our theoretical forest was comprised of two different tree species with varying probabilities of transferring fire that were randomly distributed in space at densities ranging from 0.0 (low) to 1.0 (high). We then studied the distributional patterns of burnt trees using a two-dimensional stochastic cellular automata model with minimized local rules. We investigated the time, T, that the number of burnt trees reaches 25% of the whole trees for different values of the initial tree density, fire transition probability, and the degree of wind strength. Simulation results showed that the values of T decreased with the increase of tree density, and the wind effect decreased in the case of too high or low tree density. We believe that our model can be a useful tool to explore forest fire spreading patterns.