This paper examines the existence of the fund performance persistence and the smart money effect in Korean stock market and tests the flow-induced price pressure (FIPP) hypothesis, that is, fund flows affect individual stock returns and mutual fund performance. This paper also tests whether the FIPP effect can cause the performance persistence using the monthly returns and stock holdings data of 2,702 Korean mutual funds from January 2002 to June 2008. The empirical results indicate that the performance persistence exists significantly for a long time but the smart money effect does not. The hedge portfolio constructed by buying funds with the highest past 12 months performance and selling funds with the lowest past 12 months performance earns 0.11%~1.05% monthly abnormal returns, on average, in 3 years from portfolio formation month, but the hedge portfolio constructed by buying funds with the highest past net fund inflows and selling funds with the lowest past net fund inflows cannot earn positive monthly abnormal returns and the size of negative abnormal returns of the portfolio increase as time goes on. We find the evidence that the FIPP hypothesis is significantly supported. We first estimate the FIPP measure for each individual stock using the trading volume resulting from past fund flows and then construct the hedge portfolio by buying stocks with the highest FIPP measure and selling stocks with the lowest FIPP measure. That portfolio earns significantly positive abnormal return, 1.01% at only portfolio formation month and cannot earn significant abnormal returns after formation month. But, the FIPP effect cannot cause the performance persistence because, within the same FIPP measure group, funds with higher past performance still earn higher monthly abnormal returns than those with lower past performance by 0.08%~0.77%, on average, in 2 years. These results imply that the main cause of the performance persistence in Korean stock market is the difference of fund managers' ability rather than the FIPP effect.
With the rapid evolution of technology, the size, number, and the type of databases has increased concomitantly, so data mining approaches face many challenging applications from databases. One such application is discovery of fraud patterns from agricultural product wholesale transaction instances. The agricultural product wholesale market in Korea is huge, and vast numbers of transactions have been made every day. The demand for agricultural products continues to grow, and the use of electronic auction systems raises the efficiency of operations of wholesale market. Certainly, the number of unusual transactions is also assumed to be increased in proportion to the trading amount, where an unusual transaction is often the first sign of fraud. However, it is very difficult to identify and detect these transactions and the corresponding fraud occurred in agricultural product wholesale market because the types of fraud are more intelligent than ever before. The fraud can be detected by verifying the overall transaction records manually, but it requires significant amount of human resources, and ultimately is not a practical approach. Frauds also can be revealed by victim's report or complaint. But there are usually no victims in the agricultural product wholesale frauds because they are committed by collusion of an auction company and an intermediary wholesaler. Nevertheless, it is required to monitor transaction records continuously and to make an effort to prevent any fraud, because the fraud not only disturbs the fair trade order of the market but also reduces the credibility of the market rapidly. Applying data mining to such an environment is very useful since it can discover unknown fraud patterns or features from a large volume of transaction data properly. The objective of this research is to empirically investigate the factors necessary to detect fraud transactions in an agricultural product wholesale market by developing a data mining based fraud detection model. One of major frauds is the phantom transaction, which is a colluding transaction by the seller(auction company or forwarder) and buyer(intermediary wholesaler) to commit the fraud transaction. They pretend to fulfill the transaction by recording false data in the online transaction processing system without actually selling products, and the seller receives money from the buyer. This leads to the overstatement of sales performance and illegal money transfers, which reduces the credibility of market. This paper reviews the environment of wholesale market such as types of transactions, roles of participants of the market, and various types and characteristics of frauds, and introduces the whole process of developing the phantom transaction detection model. The process consists of the following 4 modules: (1) Data cleaning and standardization (2) Statistical data analysis such as distribution and correlation analysis, (3) Construction of classification model using decision-tree induction approach, (4) Verification of the model in terms of hit ratio. We collected real data from 6 associations of agricultural producers in metropolitan markets. Final model with a decision-tree induction approach revealed that monthly average trading price of item offered by forwarders is a key variable in detecting the phantom transaction. The verification procedure also confirmed the suitability of the results. However, even though the performance of the results of this research is satisfactory, sensitive issues are still remained for improving classification accuracy and conciseness of rules. One such issue is the robustness of data mining model. Data mining is very much data-oriented, so data mining models tend to be very sensitive to changes of data or situations. Thus, it is evident that this non-robustness of data mining model requires continuous remodeling as data or situation changes. We hope that this paper suggest valuable guideline to organizations and companies that consider introducing or constructing a fraud detection model in the future.
Chea, Kwang-Seok;Lee, Young Geun;Koo, Namin;Youn, Hojoong;Lim, Jong-Hwan
Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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v.35
no.1
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pp.1-12
/
2022
Stone has been used for various purposes, such as for building stones, megaliths, ornamental stones, hunting and grinding throughout history. The global stone production amounted to around 153 million tons in 2018 excluding quarry waste, up 0.8% on year. Of them, stone residues accounted for 71%. The worldwide stone trading decreased 1.5 million tons to 56.5 million tons in 2018. The average price of stone was 34.1 USD per square meter, down 2.5% from the previous year. It's down 7% when only considering trading between the world's top twelve exporters. But in the three leading countries, Italy, Greece and Brazil, the price saw a sharp increase. In 2018, stone imports and exports totaled 815 million square meters, raising over 20 billion USD of revenue. Imports were largely led by six countries: China, Italy, Turkey, India, Brazil, Spain and Portugal, from largest to smallest.) In terms of stone use per 1,000 population, it was 117 square meters in 2001, and it increased to 264 square meters in 2017 and 266 square meters in 2018. The volume more than doubled during the period, but it has been declining slightly in recent years. China, India, Saudi Arabia and Belgium were the only countries that the stone use per 1,000 population exceeded 1,000 square meters. The increase rate was steepest in China, India and the United States, from largest to smallest. The global stone production is likely to grow to 69.85 million tons by 2025, despite the global economic downturn.
The aim of this study is to empirically explore micro and macroeconomic factors affecting the Pakistani sugar industries and searching the energy potential of this industry, through the survey of literature. The empirical part has been explored by employing Vector Autoregression (VAR), Granger Causality tests and simultaneous equation models through quarterly data for the period of 1991q2-2008q4. The study also aims to devise policies for the development of sugar industries and identify its growing importance for the energy sector of Pakistan. Empirical tests applied on the domestic prices of sugar, domestic interest rates, and exchange rate, productive capacities of sugar mills, per capita income, world sugar prices on cultivable area and sugar production reveal very useful results. Results reveal an improvement of productive capacity of the sugar mills of Pakistan on account of increasing crushing capacity of this sector. Negative effect of rising wholesale prices on the harvesting area was also observed. Profit earnings of the sugar mills significantly increase with the rise of sugar prices but the system does not exist for the farming community to share the rising prices of sugar. The models indicate positive and significant effect of local prices of sugar on its volume of import. Another of the findings of this study positively relates the local sugar markets with the international prices of sugar. Additionally, the causality tests results reveal exchange rate, harvesting area and overall output of sugarcane to have significant effects on the local prices of sugar. Similarly, import of sugar, interest rate, per capita consumption of sugar, per capita national income and the international prices of sugar also significantly affect currency exchange rate of Pakistani rupee in terms of US$. The study also finds sugar as an essential and basic necessity of the Pakistani consumers. That is why there are no significant income and price effects on the per capita consumption of sugar in Pakistan. All the empirical methods reiterate the relationship of variables. Economic policy makers are recommended to improve governance and management in the production, stock taking, internal and external trading and distribution of sugar in Pakistan using bumper crop policies. Macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, exchange rate per capita income and consumption are closely connected with the production and distribution of sugar in Pakistan. The cartelized role of the sugar industries should also be examined by further studies. There is need to further explore sugar sector of Pakistan with the perspective of energy generation through this sector; cartelized sugar markets in Pakistan and many more other dimensions of this sector. Exact appraisal of sugar industries for energy generation can be done appropriately by the experts from applied sciences.
Utilizing intra-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) based on 1 minute return data of stocks traded on the Korean Stock Exchange, this paper examines and analyzes abnormal returns in reaction to patent listing disclosures as well as the cumulative abnormal returns, traded volumes, the interaction of VWAP spreads, the reaction of volumes, the reaction of VWAP spreads and the realized returns obtained from trading using an event driven arbitrage strategy. The results of the aforementioned research topics are follows. First, our analysis suggests that on average, 0.92% positive cumulative returns arise 1 minute after the patent listing disclosure announcement with high statistical significance, thereby reconfirming that the Korean stock market is a semi-strong form of the efficient market. Employing 3 separate panel tests differentiated by the size factor, we find that the abnormal returns of small sized stocks were less than the returns of medium sized stocks, which goes to support recent research findings suggesting that the size premium is no longer existent in the Korean stock market. Secondly, we show that among the event driven type strategies, the most outstanding realized returns are from the market making strategies. Furthermore, placing market order trades only at the bid or ask price resulted in negative returns. This implies that strategies utilizing a combination of market orders and limit orders, order cancelations ratios and order flows can enhance realized returns.
Future of Busan New Port may depend even on the efficient use of the port hinterland. Accordingly, selection of which industry according to which standard in the port hinterland is another task. In order to solve this problem, it analyzed the structure in international division of labor with China and Japan, which are possessing considerable portion in the trading volume with our country, and the export-import structure of Busan Port against China and Japan, by using RCA index and GL index as well as export-import results. In addition to this, the proper industry was selected on the basis of 10 strategic industries for development in Busan. According to the analytical results, the industries, which will be induced in the hinterland of Busan New Port, include textile clothing, pulp printing matter, jewelry, basic metal nonmetallic product, machine lectric product, automobile, shipbuilding, optics accurate machinery medical treatment musical instrument, nano material, fuel battery, aerospace and intelligent robot.
The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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v.11
no.2
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pp.204-208
/
2018
In this paper, we proposed and evaluated the time series deep learning prediction model for learning fluctuation pattern of stock price. Recurrent neural networks, which can store previous information in the hidden layer, are suitable for the stock price prediction model, which is time series data. In order to maintain the long - term dependency by solving the gradient vanish problem in the recurrent neural network, we use LSTM with small memory inside the recurrent neural network. Furthermore, we proposed the stock price prediction model using bidirectional LSTM recurrent neural network in which the hidden layer is added in the reverse direction of the data flow for solving the limitation of the tendency of learning only based on the immediately preceding pattern of the recurrent neural network. In this experiment, we used the Tensorflow to learn the proposed stock price prediction model with stock price and trading volume input. In order to evaluate the performance of the stock price prediction, the mean square root error between the real stock price and the predicted stock price was obtained. As a result, the stock price prediction model using bidirectional LSTM recurrent neural network has improved prediction accuracy compared with unidirectional LSTM recurrent neural network.
Out of all the possible actions that can be taken to respond to greenhouse gas reduction, including development of greenhouse gas reduction technology, infrastructure, actions to improve energy saving and efficiency, and offset with carbon emission reductions (CERs), this study shall focus on the investment on CERs. This study will take a look at risks involved with investing in CERs such as UN registration refusal risk and CERs price fluctuation, and will design risk management model which shall be verified. The goal of this paper is to provide optimized CERs investment strategies for different types of investors, such as general trading companies seeking for investment opportunities and financial companies with plans for green products development and investment by preparation for carbon market. It is expected that the global competitiveness of domestic financial companies shall be improved by taking actions on carbon market instead of previous passive response to climate change and that Korea, the number two Carbon Emissions supplier and number one derivatives market in terms of volume, shall be able to lead the worldwide carbon market.
This study was conducted to investigate the facilities, cultivation, postharvest management, and distribution status of 27 cut chrysanthemum farms in Korea. The 60% of farms have cultivated the cut chrysanthemum using soil fertigation system in the PE plastic house. In Jeonnam and Busan provinces, Standard type of chrysanthemum was cultivated mainly than spray type of chrysanthemumJeoas. Most farms have been producing the rooted cuttings by plug system using cuttings self-propagated or purchased from the company, but farms in Jeonnam have been planting cuttings directly on cultivation bed. And the 66.6% of cut chrysanthemum farms have been pretreating with dipping in hot water or tap water after harvesting. Precooling was not performed on 70.4% of the farms, and precooling farms have been mainly conducted at temperature of $2-4^{\circ}C$. After harvesting, 70.4% of the farms stored the cut flowers at $2-4^{\circ}C$ for more than 48 hours to control the distribution volume. Cut chrysanthemum was graded mainly by individuals before distribution, and some export farmers have been conducting the cooperative grading. In distribution, all farms have distributed the cut flowers to the domestic markets, and 44.4% of these farms have been also exporting. The 63.0% of farms distributed to domestic market have been trading with flower auction sites.
With the virtual asset market's rapid growth, government regulations on listing and trading procedures are expected. However, specific measures are currently lacking. To ensure stable inclusion in the institutional framework, precise regulations are needed for market development and investor protection. This study compares self-regulatory guidelines of the top domestic virtual asset exchanges with Korea Exchange's Preliminary Listing Examination Standards (2022) to enhance timeliness and relevance. It defines IEO, IPO, and ICO concepts and addresses conflicts of interest in IEO. Analyzing delisted virtual assets, it categorizes issues and classifies listing examination guidelines into formal and qualitative requirements. The study examines self-regulatory guidelines based on continuity, transparency, stability, corporate characteristics, and investor protection criteria, along with five special requirements for virtual assets. Improvement measures include regular disclosures of governance structure, circulation volume, and the establishment of independent audit institutions. This research further analyzes delisting cases, classifies issues, and proposes solutions. Considering stock market similarities, it offers measures based on the institutional framework.
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