• 제목/요약/키워드: time series regression analysis

검색결과 311건 처리시간 0.024초

한국 노인의 건강관련 삶의 질과 영향요인 추이 (Trend of Influencing Factors on Health-related Quality of Life in Korean Elderly)

  • 안지숙;최혜영
    • 한국보건간호학회지
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.275-287
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study examined the trends of socio-demographic and health factors affecting the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in Korean elderly. Methods: Data were obtained from the Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES V-1, 2007, KNHANES V-1, 2010, KNHANES V-2, 2014). The sample consisted of 3,668 Korean individuals aged 65 years and older. The data were analyzed using a t-test, Chi-square test and multiple linear regression using the SPSS/WIN 20.0 program. Results: The HRQoL is improving consistently and the affecting factors on the HRQoL were the education level, activity limitation, subjective health and walking days per week in the three data of 2007, 2010, and 2014. Conclusion: A health care program focusing on improving activity limitation and physical activity should be considered for the improvement of HRQoL for the elderly in the community.

Output and Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: Evidence from China

  • Huan, Xingang;He, Yugang
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the real exchange rate and the output, which is based on the macroeconomic equilibrium theory in China. Its aim will be to verify whether the change in the real exchange rate has a significant effect on the output or not. Research design, data, and methodology - This study endeavors tries to investigate the correlation among economic variables under the macroeconomic market (the commodity market and the money market) equilibrium. So, time-series data from 1990 to 2016 is applied to establish a vector auto-regression (VAR) model so as to perform an empirical analysis. Results - The empirical results reveal that an increase in the real exchange rate will result in an increase in the output in the short run. However, the empirical results also indicate that this kind of mechanism cannot work in the long run. Conclusions - The effect of a decrease of real exchange rate on output is significant in the short run. Also, this paper suggests that the total supply and the total demand can promote economic growth. The fiscal and money policy play a significant role in economic growth in China as well.

Green Growth and Sustainability: The Role of Tourism, Travel and Hospitality Service Industry in Korea

  • Lee, Jung Wan;Kwag, Michael
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제11권7호
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - The study investigates the influence of tourism and hospitality industry on economic growth and CO2 emissions. Research design, data, and methodology - In the empirical analysis, unit root tests, cointegration test and vector error correction model regression using time series data of South Korea from the first quarter of 1970 to the third quarter of 2010 are performed to examine the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-run dynamics among the tourism and hospitality industry, CO2 emissions, economic growth and other industry sectors. Results - Results indicate that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among these variables. Furthermore, the tourism and hospitality industry and CO2 emissions have high significant positive effect on economic growth. The tourism and hospitality industry in Korea, in turns, shows a high significant positive impact on economic growth while the industry sector incursa high significant negative impact on CO2 emissions. Conclusions - The tourism and hospitality industry in Korea may havebeen prompted by several factors such as accelerated process of technological innovation or energy and environmental policies. These findings suggest that the effectively managed tourism and hospitality sector in Korea has resulted in both economic growth and a reduction in CO2 emissions.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Aid and Exports on Economic Growth in Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Cung Huu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제7권10호
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    • pp.581-589
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    • 2020
  • Foreign factors play an important role in the socio-economic development of each country, in which foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign aid and exports of goods and services are always given top priority in undeveloped countries as well as developing countries. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between the various factors such as FDI, foreign aid, exports and economic growth in Vietnam. The empirical method employed secondary time-series data set during the period 1997-2018 to determine the impact of FDI, foreign aid and exports on economic growth in Vietnam by using a linear approach. For this study, data is collected from the World Bank and relevant agencies in Vietnam. An empirical model is built with a correlation and regression analysis between economic growth (GDP, current) and three independent variables (FDI, aid, exports of goods and services). The results show that the relationship between FDI (net inflows), aid, exports and GDP (current) has a positive effect at a 1% significance level. Based on these findings, the article recommends that Vietnam continues to seek effective solutions to maintain high economic growth rates by attracting FDI inflows, official development assistance (ODA), and increasing exports of goods and services.

BBDB형 진동수주 파력발전장치의 운동 및 파랑표류력 연구 (A Study on Motion and Wave Drift Force of a BBDB Type OWC Wave Energy Device)

  • 김진하;류재문;홍도천;홍석원
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 2006
  • The motion and wave drift forces of floating BBDB (backward-bent duct buoy) wave energy absorbers in regular waves are calculated, taking account of the oscillating surface-pressure due to the pressure drop in the air chamber above the oscillating water column, within the scope of the linear wave theory. A series of model tests has been conducted in order to order to verify the motion and time mean wave drift force reponses in regular waves at the ocean engineering basin, MOERI/KORDI. The pneumatic damping through an orifice-type duct for the BBDB wave energy device are deducted from experimental research. Numerical simulation for motion and drift force responses of the BBDB wave energy device, considering pneumatic damping coefficients, has been carried out, and the results are compared with those of model tests.

Water table: The dominant control on CH4 and CO2 emission from a closed landfill site

  • Nwachukwu, Arthur N.;Nwachukwu, Nkechinyere V.
    • Advances in environmental research
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.123-133
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    • 2020
  • A time series dataset was conducted to ascertain the effect of water table on the variability in and emission of CH4 and CO2 concentrations at a closed landfill site. An in-situ data of methane/carbon dioxide concentrations and environmental parameters were collected by means of an in-borehole gas monitor, the Gasclam (Ion Science, UK). Linear regression analysis was used to determine the strength of the correlation between ground-gas concentration and water table. The result shows CH4 and CO2 concentrations to be variable with strong negative correlations of approximately 0.5 each with water table over the entire monitoring period. The R2 was slightly improved by considering their concentration over single periods of increasing and decreasing water table, single periods of increasing water table, and single periods of decreasing water table; their correlations increased significantly at 95% confidence level. The result revealed that fluctuations in groundwater level is the key driving force on the emission of and variability in groundgas concentration and neither barometric pressure nor temperature. This finding further validates the earlier finding that atmospheric pressure - the acclaimed major control on the variability/migration of CH4 and CO2 concentrations on contaminated sites, is not always so.

L2 한국어 통사 발달과 학습자 변인에 대한 종적 고찰: 자연 학습 환경의 예 (A Longitudinal Investigation on L2 Korean Syntactic Development and Learner Variables: Evidence from Natural Learning Environment)

  • 김정운;김영주;이선진
    • 한국어교육
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.1-38
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    • 2017
  • This longitudinal study analyzed syntactic development (Complexity, Accuracy, and Fluency; CAF) of six L2 Korean learners in a natural learning context. The learners recalled the stories of a short animated video through speaking and writing every 3 months, from month 0 to 15. The learners' responses were analyzed for a series of CAF measures and their cognitive, psychological, and social variables were investigated. The results showed that (i) L2 Korean learners' speaking and writing in various time periods showed significant differences in spoken and written accuracy, and complexity; (ii) the correlation between spoken and written complexity, spoken and written accuracy, as well as spoken and written fluency were significant, and (iii) the regression analysis showed that learners' cognitive, social, and psychological variables have significant effect on the L2 Korean syntactic development. The current study reports that L2 Korean learners engaged in self-learning in a natural learning environment without formal instruction made significant syntactic development.

Evaluation of strength characteristics of cement-stabilized soil using the electrical resistivity measurement

  • Kean Thai Chhun;Chan-Young Yune
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.261-269
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    • 2023
  • In this study, the compressive strength of cement stabilized soil was predicted using the electrical resistivity measurement. The effects of the water to cement (w/c) ratio and recovered Carbon Black (rCB) contents were examined. A series of electrical resistivity and compressive strength tests were conducted on two types of stabilized soil after 28 days of curing. Multiple nonlinear regression (MNLR) analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between the compressive strength and the electrical resistivity in terms of the rCB, Cu (uniformity coefficient), and w/c ratio. The results showed that the w/c ratio and Cu have a strong influence on the compressive strength and electrical resistivity of the cement stabilized soil compared to the rCB content. The use of a small amount of rCB led to a decrease in the void space in the specimen and was attributed to the increase strength and decrease electrical resistivity. A high w/c ratio also induced a low electrical resistivity and compressive strength, whereas 3% rCB in the cemented soil provided the optimum strength for all w/c ratios. Finally, a prediction equation for the compressive strength using the electrical resistivity measurement was suggested based on its reliability, time effectiveness, non-destructiveness, and cost-effectiveness.

실시간 누락 교통자료의 대체기법에 관한 연구 (Study on Imputation Methods of Missing Real-Time Traffic Data)

  • 장진환;류승기;문학룡;변상철
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2004
  • 현재 여러 지자체에서 혼잡한 도시교통의 이동성 및 안전성을 향상시키기 위해 첨단교통관리체계(ITS)를 구축 $\cdot$ 운영중인데 이러한 시스템에서 수집하는 교통상황에 대한 실시간 자료가 노면상황, 악천후, 통신 및 장비자체의 결함 등으로 인해 수많은 자료가 결측된다. 이러한 결측 자료로 인해 통행시간 예측 및 각종 연구가 불가능한 경우가 발생하며 또한 도로의 계획과 기하구조 설계시 기본 자료가 되는 AADT 및 DHV 등의 교통 파라메터들이 과소 또는 과대 추정될 수 있어서 심각한 손해를 끼칠수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 부득이하게 누락되는 교통량 자료에 대해 전 $\cdot$ 후기간 평균, 회귀 모형, EM, 시계열 모형들을 활용한 대체기법들을 살펴보았고, 그 결과 시계열 모형을 이용한 대체의 경우 MAPE, 불균등계수, RMSE 가 각각 5.0$\%$, 0.030, 110으로 가장 좋은 결과를 보였고 나머지 대체기법들은 평가지표에 따라 조금씩 다른 결과를 보였으나 대체로 만족할 만한 수준의 결과를 낳았다

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Mortality Characteristics and Prediction of Female Breast Cancer in China from 1991 to 2011

  • Shi, Xiao-Jun;Au, William W.;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Chen, Lin-Xiang;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.2785-2791
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    • 2014
  • Aims: To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trend in the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution, such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, time series modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict future trends. Results: In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higher than those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed, with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysis indicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continue for the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention and management of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focus on the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management, and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.