• 대한토목학회논문집
• /
• 제26권2D호
• /
• pp.251-258
• /
• 2006

본 연구에서는 개별차량의 차두시간분포 분석을 통해 고속도로 설계용량 산정모형을 개발하였으며 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 교통류 기본관계와 차두시간 분포특성을 분석한 결과, 1) 개별차량 자료로부터 작성한 속도-교통량 관계는 선형을 이루지 않고 상당한 편차가 있는 분포를 이루고 있었으며, 2) 속도별 차두시간의 통계적 분포는 Pearson type V 분포의 형태로 추정하였을 경우 통계적 검정값이 가장 우수하였다. 새로운 고속도로 설계용량 산정모형은 기존 미국 도로용량편람의 용량의 정의에 본 연구의 결과인 속도별 최소차두시간의 통계적 정의를 포함시킴으로써 개발하였다. 새로운 고속도로 설계용량 산정모형에 의해 설계속도별로 산정한 용량수준을 기존의 용량편람에서 제시한 용량과 비교한 결과, 본 연구에서 제시한 도로설계 시 기준용량은 설계속도 80km/h 이하에서는 기존 용량편람보다 낮게, 설계속도 106km/h 이상에서는 기존 용량편람보다 높게 평가되었다. 더불어 본 연구 결과와 기존 용량편람의 큰 차이점은 용량을 확률분포로 정의함으로써 도로 설계 시 용량수준을 유연하게 적용할 수 있다는 사실이다. 다시 말해 본 연구는 도로설계 시 차로수 산정에 있어 기존의 단 한대의 추가 수요가 발생하더라도 한 차로를 추가하여야 하는 비효용에 대한 이론적 반론을 제시하고 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제28권3호
• /
• pp.359-370
• /
• 1999

We considered a change-point hazard rate model generalizing constant hazard rate model. This type of model is very popular in the sense that the Weibull and exponential distributions formulating survival time data are the special cases of it. Maximum likelihood estimation and the asymptotic properties such as the consistency and its limiting distribution of the change-point estimator were discussed. A parametric bootstrap method for finding confidence intervals of the unknown change-point was also suggested and the proposed method is explained through a practical example.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제22권3호
• /
• pp.241-253
• /
• 2015

In this paper we predict the track of typhoons using a Bayesian principal component regression model based on wind field data. Data is obtained at each time point and we applied the Bayesian principal component regression model to conduct the track prediction based on the time point. Based on regression model, we applied to variable selection prior and two kinds of prior distribution; normal and Laplace distribution. We show prediction results based on Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and Median Probability Model (MPM) estimator. We analysis 8 typhoons in 2006 using data obtained from previous 6 years (2000-2005). We compare our prediction results with a moving-nest typhoon model (MTM) proposed by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We posit that is possible to predict the track of a typhoon accurately using only a statistical model and without a dynamical model.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한기계학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회
• /
• pp.445-450
• /
• 2003

This study was performed 10 develop the accelerated life test method using Weibull-IPL(Inverse Power Law) model for mechanical components. Weibull-IPL model is concerned with determining the assurance life with confidence level and the accelerated life test time From the relation of weibull distribution factors and confidence limit, the testing times on the no number of failure acceptance criteria arc determined. The mechanical components generally represent wear and fatigue characteristics as a failure mode. IPL based on the cumulative damage theory is applied effectively the mechanical components to reduce the testing time and to achieve the accelerating test conditions. As the actual application example, accelerated life test method of agricultural tractor transmission was described. Life distribution of agricultural tractor transmission was supposed to follow Weibull distribution and life test time was calculated under the conditions of average life (MTBF) 3,000 hours and 90% confidence level for one test sample. According to IPL, because test time call be shorten in case increase test load test time could be reduced by 482 hours when we put the load 1.1 times of rated load than 0.73 times of rated load that is equivalent load calculated by load spectrum of the agricultural tractor. This time, acceleration coefficient was 11.7.

• Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
• /
• 제8권
• /
• pp.31-40
• /
• 1997

Flow carrying capacity of water distribution systems is getting reduced by deterioration of pipes in the systems. The objective of this paper is to present a managerial decision-making model for the rehabilitation of water distribution systems with a mininum cost. The decisions made by the model also satisfy the requirements for discharge and pressure at demanding nodes in the systems. Replacement cost, pipe break repair cost, and pumping cost are considered in the economic evaluation of the decision along with the break rate and the interest rate to determine the optimal replacement time for each pipe. Then, the hydraulic integrity of the water distribution system is checked for the decision by a pipe network simulator, KYPIPE, if discharge and pressure requirements are satisfied. In case the system does not satisfy the hydraulic requirements, the decision made for the optimal replacement time is revised until the requirments are satisfied. The model is well applied to an existing water distribution system, the Seoul Metropolitan Water Supply System (1st Phase). The results show that the decisions for the replacement time determined by the economic analysis are accepted as optimal and hydraulic integrity of the system is in good condition.

• 한국전자파학회논문지
• /
• 제23권11호
• /
• pp.1272-1279
• /
• 2012

본 논문에서는 기상청의 10년간의 1분 단위 강수량 측정 데이터를 이용하여 국내 환경에 대한 연평균 강우율 분포 및 강우율 분포와 최악월 강우율 분포의 상관 관계 모델을 제시하였다. 본 논문에서 제시한 모델을 기존의 ITU(International Telecommunication Union)-R 권고 모델과 비교한 결과, 시간율 0.01 %에 대해서 국내 연평균 강우율의 전국 평균값은 ITU-R 권고 문서의 강우율에 비하여 약 28 % 높게 나타났다. 또한, 연평균 및 최악월 강우율 분포 간의 상관 관계도 본 논문의 모델과 ITU-R 권고 문서의 모델은 상당히 큰 차이를 보였다. 앞으로 국내 무선 통신 시스템 설계에 필수적인 강우 감쇠의 통계적 특성(시간율 분포) 계산을 위해서는 국내 환경에 적합한 강우율 분포 모델을 사용하여야 할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국통신학회논문지
• /
• 제33권1B호
• /
• pp.17-24
• /
• 2008

The effect of the variable packet size on the LRD characteristic of the MMPP traffic model is investigated. When we generate packet traffic for the performance evaluation of IP packet network, MMPP model can be used to generate packet interarrival time. And a random length of packet size from a certain distribution can be assigned to each packet. However, there is a possibility that the variable packet size might change the LRD characteristic of the original MMPP model. In this study, we investigate this possibility. For this purpose the 'refined traffic' is defined, where packet arrival time is generated according to the MMPP model and a random packet length from a specific distribution is assigned to each generated packet. Hurst parameter of the refined traffic is estimated and compared with the original Hurst parameter, which is the input parameter of the MMPP model. We also investigate the effect of the packet size distribution on the queueing performance of the MMPP traffic model and the relationship between the Hurst parameter and queueing performance.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
• /
• 제9권2호
• /
• pp.1-10
• /
• 2013

In this paper, make a study decision problem called an optimal release policies after testing a software system in development phase and transfer it to the user. In the course of correcting or modifying the software, finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model, presented and was proposed release policies of the life distribution, half-logistic and log-logistic distributions model which used to an area of reliability because of various shape and scale parameter. In this paper, discuss optimal software release policies which minimize a total average software cost of development and maintenance under the constraint of satisfying a software reliability requirement. In a numerical example, the parameter estimation using maximum likelihood estimation of failure time data make out, and software optimal release time was estimated.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국통계학회 2004년도 학술발표논문집
• /
• pp.289-294
• /
• 2004

We consider M/G/1 queue in which the customers are classified into n+1 classes by their impatience time. First, we analyze the model of two types of customers; one is the customer with constant impatience duration k and the other is patient customer. The expected busy period of the server and the limiting distribution of the virtual waiting time process are obtained. Then, the model is generalized to the one in which there are classes of customers according to their impatience duration.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제21권5호
• /
• pp.57-64
• /
• 2016

In this paper, we propose the design of railway safety common data model to provide common transformation method for collecting data from railway facility fields to Real-time railway safety monitoring and control system. This common data model is divided into five abstract sub-models according to the characteristics of data such as 'StateInfoMessage', 'ControlMessage', 'RequestMessage', 'ResponseMessage' and 'ExtendedXXXMessage'. This kind of model structure allows diverse heterogeneous data acquisitions and its common conversion method to DDS (Data Distribution Service) format to share data to the sub-systems of Real-time railway safety monitoring and control system. This paper contains the design of common data model and its DDS Topic expression for DDS communication, and presents two kinds of data transformation case studied for verification of the model design.