• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.100-112
• /
• 2005

Soil temperature was measured from the surface to 40 cm depth at three stations with different heights in tidal flat of Gomso Bay, west coast of Korea, for one month in every season 2004 to examine the thermal structure and the variation. Mean temperature in surface layer was higher in summer and lower in winter than in lower layer, reflecting the seasonal variation of vertically propagating structure of temperature by heating and cooling from the tidal flat surface. Standard deviation of temperature decreased from the surface to lower layer. Periodic variations of solar radiation energy and tide mainly caused short term variation of soil temperature, which was also intermittently influenced by precipitation and wind. Time series analysis showed the power spectral energy peaks at the periods of 24, 12 and 8 hours, and the strongest peak appeared at 24 hour period. These peaks can be interpreted as temperature waves forced by variations of solar radiation, diurnal tide and interaction of both variations, respectively. EOF analysis showed that the first and the second modes resolved 96% of variation of vertical temperature structure. The first mode was interpreted as the heating antl cooling from tidal flat surface and the second mode as the effect of phase lag produced by temperature wave propagation in the soil. The phase of heat transfer by 24 hour period wave, analyzed by cross spectrum, showed that mean phase difference of the temperature wave increased almost linearly with the soil depth. The time lags by the phase difference from surface to 10, 20 and 40cm were 3.2,6.5 and 9.8 hours, respectively. Vertical thermal diffusivity of temperature wave of 24 hour period was estimated using one dimensional thermal diffusion model. Average diffusivity over the soil depths and seasons resulted in $0.70{\times}10^{-6}m^2/s$ at the middle station and $0.57{\times}10^{-6}m^2/s$ at the lowest station. The depth-averaged diffusivity was large in spring and small in summer and the seasonal mean diffusivity vertically increased from 2 cm to 10 cm and decreased from 10 cm to 40 cm. Thermal propagation speeds were estimated by $8.75{\times}10^{-4}cm/s,\;3.8{\times}10{-4}cm/s,\;and\;1.7{\times}10^{-4}cm/s$ from 2 cm to 10 cm, 20 cm and 40 cm, respectively, indicating the speed reduction with depth increasing from the surface.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
• /
• v.9 no.1
• /
• pp.119-132
• /
• 2014

This study analyzed the failure prediction model of the firms listed on the KOSDAQ by considering whether there are embezzlement, malpractice and the largest shareholder changes or not. This study composed a total of 166 firms by using two-paired sampling method. For sample of failed firm, 83 manufacturing firms which delisted on KOSDAQ market for 4 years from 2009 to 2012 are selected. For sample of normal firm, 83 firms (with same item or same business as failed firm) that are listed on KOSDAQ market and perform normal business activities during the same period (from 2009 to 2012) are selected. This study selected 80 financial ratios for 5 years immediately preceding from delisting of sample firm above and conducted T-test to derive 19 of them which emerged for five consecutive years among significant variables and used forward selection to estimate logistic regression model. While the precedent studies only analyzed the data of three years immediately preceding the delisting, this study analyzes data of five years immediately preceding the delisting. This study is distinct from existing previous studies that it researches which significant financial characteristic influences the insolvency from the initial phase of insolvent firm with time lag and it also empirically analyzes the usefulness of data by building a firm's fail prediction model which considered embezzlement/malpractice and the largest shareholder changes as dummy variable(non-financial characteristics). The accuracy of classification of the prediction model with dummy variable appeared 95.2% in year T-1, 88.0% in year T-2, 81.3% in year T-3, 79.5% in year T-4, and 74.7% in year T-5. It increased as year of delisting approaches and showed generally higher the accuracy of classification than the results of existing previous studies. This study expects to reduce the damage of not only the firm but also investors, financial institutions and other stakeholders by finding the firm with high potential to fail in advance.