• 제목/요약/키워드: the likelihood of success

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Predicting the success of CDM Registration for Hydropower Projects using Logistic Regression and CART (로그 회귀분석 및 CART를 활용한 수력사업의 CDM 승인여부 예측 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Ho;Koo, Bonsang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2015
  • The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the multi-lateral 'cap and trade' system endorsed by the Kyoto Protocol. CDM allows developed (Annex I) countries to buy CER credits from New and Renewable (NE) projects of non-Annex countries, to meet their carbon reduction requirements. This in effect subsidizes and promotes NE projects in developing countries, ultimately reducing global greenhouse gases (GHG). To be registered as a CDM project, the project must prove 'additionality,' which depends on numerous factors including the adopted technology, baseline methodology, emission reductions, and the project's internal rate of return. This makes it difficult to determine ex ante a project's acceptance as a CDM approved project, and entails sunk costs and even project cancellation to its project stakeholders. Focusing on hydro power projects and employing UNFCCC public data, this research developed a prediction model using logistic regression and CART to determine the likelihood of approval as a CDM project. The AUC for the logistic regression and CART model was 0.7674 and 0.7231 respectively, which proves the model's prediction accuracy. More importantly, results indicate that the emission reduction amount, MW per hour, investment/Emission as crucial variables, whereas the baseline methodology and technology types were insignificant. This demonstrates that at least for hydro power projects, the specific technology is not as important as the amount of emission reductions and relatively small scale projects and investment to carbon reduction ratios.

Membership Fluidity and Knowledge Collaboration in Virtual Communities: A Multilateral Approach to Membership Fluidity (가상 커뮤니티의 멤버 유동성과 지식 협업: 멤버 유동성에 대한 다각적 접근)

  • Park, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.19-47
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    • 2015
  • In this era of knowledge economy, a variety of virtual communities are proliferating for the purpose of knowledge creation and utilization. Since the voluntary contributions of members are the essential source of knowledge, member turnover can have significant implications on the survival and success of virtual communities. However, there is a dearth of research on the effect of membership turnover and even the method of measurement for membership turnover is left unclear in virtual communities. In a traditional context, membership turnover is calculated as the ratio of the number of departing members to the average number of members for a given time period. In virtual communities, while the influx of newcomers can be clearly measured, the magnitude of departure is elusive since explicit withdrawals are seldom executed. In addition, there doesn't exist a common way to determine the average number of community members who return and contribute intermittently at will. This study initially examines the limitations in applying the concept of traditional turnover to virtual communities, and proposes five membership fluidity measures based on a preliminary analysis of editing behaviors of 2,978 featured articles in English Wikipedia. Subsequently, this work investigates the relationships between three selected membership fluidity measures and group collaboration performance, reflecting a moderating effect dependent on work characteristic. We obtained the following results: First, membership turnover relates to collaboration efficiency in a right-shortened U-shaped manner, with a moderating effect from work characteristic; given the same turnover rate, the promotion likelihood for a more professional task is lower than that for a less professional task, and the likelihood difference diminishes as the turnover rate increases. Second, contribution period relates to collaboration efficiency in a left-shortened U-shaped manner, with a moderating effect from work characteristic; the marginal performance change per unit change of contribution period is greater for a less professional task. Third, the number of new participants per month relates to collaboration efficiency in a left-shortened reversed U-shaped manner, for which the moderating effect from work characteristic appears to be insignificant.

Antibiotics Susceptability of Streptococcus pneumoniae Isolated from Single Tertiary Childrens' Hospital Since 2014 and Choice of Appropriate Empirical Antibiotics (최근 4년간 국내 단일 의료기관을 내원한 소아청소년에서 분리된 폐구균의 항생제 감수성 양상 분석)

  • Jung, Jiwon;Yoo, Ree Nar;Sung, Hungseop;Kim, Mina;Lee, Jina
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: We investigated the distribution and antimicrobial resistance of pneumococcal isolates from hospitalized children at Asan Medical Center for recent 4 years, and aimed to recommend proper choice of empirical antibiotics for pneumococcal infection. Methods: From March 2014 to May 2018, children admitted to Asan Medical Center Childrens' Hospital with pneumococcal infection were subjected for evaluation of minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) for ${\beta}-lactams$ and macrolide antibiotics. Patient's age, underlying disease, gender were retrospectively collected. Using Monte Carlo simulation model and MIC from our study, we predicted the rate of treatment success with amoxicillin treatment. Results: Sixty-three isolates were analyzed including 20.6% (n=13) of invasive isolates, and 79.4% (n=50) of non-invasive isolates; median age were 3.3 years old, and 87.3% of the pneumococcal infections occurred to children with underlying disease. Overall susceptibility rate was 49.2%, 68.2%, and 74.6% for amoxicillin, parenteral penicillin, and cefotaxime respectively. 23.8% and 9.5% of the isolates showed high resistance for amoxicillin, and cefotaxime. Only 4.8% (n=3) were susceptible to erythromycin. Monte Carlo simulation model revealed the likelihood of treatment success was 46.0% at the dosage of 90 mg/kg/day of amoxicillin. Conclusions: Recent pneumococcal isolates from pediatric patients with underlying disease revealed high resistance for amoxicillin and cefotaxime, and high resistance for erythromycin. Prudent choice of antibiotics based on the local data of resistance cannot be emphasized enough, especially in high risk patients with underlying disease, and timely vaccination should be implemented for prevention of the spread of resistant strains.

Risk Factors of Extubation Failure and Analysis of Cuff Leak Test as a Predictor for Postextubation Stridor (발관 실패의 위험 인자 및 발관 후 천음과 재삽관의 예측에 있어 Cuff Leak Test 의 유용성과 의미 분석)

  • Lim, Seong Yong;Suh, Gee Young;Kyung, Sun Yong;An, Chang Hyeok;Park, Jung Woong;Lee, Sang Pyo;Jeong, Sung Hwan;Ham, Hyoung Suk;Ahn, Young Mee;Lim, Si Young;Koh, Won Jung;Chung, Man Pyo;Kim, Ho Joong;Kwon, O Jung
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.34-40
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    • 2006
  • Background: Extubation failure was associated with poor prognosis and high hospital mortality. Cuff leak test (CLT) has been proposed as a relatively simple method for detecting laryngeal obstruction that predispose toward postextubation stridor (PES) and reintubation. We examined the risk factors of extubation failure and evaluated the usefulness and limitation of CLT for predicting PES and reintubation. Methods: Thirty-four consecutive patients intubated more than 24 hours were examined. The subjects were evaluated daily for extubation readiness, and CLT was performed prior to extubation. Several parameters in the extubation success and failure group were compared. The accuracy and limitation of CLT were evaluated after choosing the thresholds values of the cuff leak volume (CLV) and percentage (CLP). Results: Of the 34 patients studied, 6 (17.6%) developed extubation failure and 3 (8.8%) were accompanied by PES. The patients who had extubation failure were more likely to have a longer duration of intubation and more severe illness. The patients who developed PES had a smaller cuff leak than the others: according to the CLV ($22.5{\pm}23.8$ vs $233.3{\pm}147.1ml$, p=0.020) or CLP ($6.2{\pm}7.3$ vs $44.3{\pm}24.7%$, p=0.013). The best cut off values for the CLV and CLP were 50ml and 14.7%, respectively. The sensitivity, negative predictive value, and specificity of CLT were relatively high, but the positive predictive value was low. Conclusion: The likelihood of developing extubation failure increases with increasing severity of illness and duration of intubation. A low CLV or CLP (<50ml or 14.7%) is useful in identifying patients at risk of PES, but the CLT is not an absolute predictor and should not be used an indicator for delaying extubation.

Effectiveness and characteristics of technology transfer consortia in public R&D sector: The case of Korean TT consortia (공공연구부문에서의 기술이전컨소시엄의 효과와 특성 연구: 공공기술이전컨소시엄 사례를 중심으로)

  • Park, Jong-Bok;Ryu, Tae-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.284-309
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    • 2007
  • Technology transfer (TT) consortium is an affiliation of two or more public research institutions (PRIs) that participate in a common technology transfer activity or pool their resources together, with the objective of facilitating technology transfer. Based on empirical analysis of five regional TT consortia (2002-2006) operating in Korea, this paper suggests their effectiveness by employing a TT performance index (TTPI) and identifies possible characteristics involved, such as motivations, facilitators, barriers, and challenges. TTPI devised in the paper is a new composite TT performance index to measure how much the TT performance of a PH changed in a designated year compared to a base year. All the performance indicators of TTPI are well-structured based on the unique TT process that is prevalent in Korea. Further, TTPI can bring different size and focus of PRIs to the same scale for comparison by double-normalizing. The paper tests the effectiveness of TT consortium for the escalation of TT performances in member PRIs by highlighting the differences of TTPI's between 2005 and 2001. As a result, the paper found that the escalation of TTPI for member PRIs was greater than that for non-member PRIs. As for the characteristics of TT consortia, their respective factors obtained by TT expert survey were computed with proportion tests of differences (Z tests) to compare two perspectives between intramural and extramural groups. One of key findings is that there is general homogeneity in stakeholder perspectives regarding motivations, facilitators, barriers, and challenges. Some notable responses are as follow; the most probable motivation to join TT consortium is to share or exchange TT competences for enhanced performance. Second, the most probable facilitator is professional capability of consortium-hired personnel. Third, the foremost probable barriers to effective TT consortium are frequent change of consortium director and passive participation of member PRIs. Lastly, both publicizing TT consortia and developing performance metrics are the most important for the improvement of TT consortia. The understanding of the characteristics of TT consortia increases the likelihood of accelerated success, because TT consortia path from formation to termination encompasses many concepts, processes, principles, and factors. Finally, an analysis of the survey data combined with expert interview and observation data led the authors to derive five conditions as being critical to viable TT consortia in Korea at early stage of technology transfer systems. These conditions include policy infrastructure, proactive participation, excellent professionals, personal motivation, and teaming mechanisms. It is expected that the Korean evidence is a starting point to develop and refine the theory of TT consortia and for additional studies in other countries.

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The Effects of Evaluation Attributes of Cultural Tourism Festivals on Satisfaction and Behavioral Intention (문화관광축제 방문객의 평가속성 만족과 행동의도에 관한 연구 - 2006 광주김치대축제를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.55-73
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    • 2007
  • Festivals are an indispensable feature of cultural tourism(Formica & Uysal, 1998). Cultural tourism festivals are increasingly being used as instruments promoting tourism and boosting the regional economy. So much research related to festivals is undertaken from a variety of perspectives. Plans to revisit a particular festival have been viewed as an important research topic both in academia and the tourism industry. Therefore festivals have frequently been leveled as cultural events. Cultural tourism festivals have become a crucial component in constituting the attractiveness of tourism destinations(Prentice, 2001). As a result, a considerable number of tourist studies have been carried out in diverse cultural tourism festivals(Backman et al., 1995; Crompton & Mckay, 1997; Park, 1998; Clawson & Knetch, 1996). Much of previous literature empirically shows the close linkage between tourist satisfaction and behavioral intention in festivals. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of evaluation attributes of cultural tourism festivals on satisfaction and behavioral intention. accomplish the research objective, to find out evaluation items of cultural tourism festivals through the literature study an empirical study. Using a varimax rotation with Kaiser normalization, the research obtained four factors in the 18 evaluation attributes of cultural tourism festivals. Some empirical studies have examined the relationship between behavioral intention and actual behavior. To understand between tourist satisfaction and behavioral intention, this study suggests five hypotheses and hypothesized model. In this study, the analysis is based on primary data collected from visitors who participated in '2006 Gwangju Kimchi Festival'. In total, 700 self-administered questionnaires were distributed and 561 usable questionnaires were obtained. Respondents were presented with the 18 satisfactions item on a scale from 1(strongly disagree) to 7(strongly agree). Dimensionality and stability of the scale were evaluated by a factor analysis with varimax rotation. Four factors emerged with eigenvalues greater than 1, which explained 66.40% of the total variance and Cronbach' alpha raging from 0.876 to 0.774. And four factors named: advertisement and guides, programs, food and souvenirs, and convenient facilities. To test and estimate the hypothesized model, a two-step approach with an initial measurement model and a subsequent structural model for Structural Equation Modeling was used. The AMOS 4.0 analysis package was used to conduct the analysis. In estimating the model, the maximum likelihood procedure was used.In this study Chi-square test is used, which is the most common model goodness-of-fit test. In addition, considering the literature about the Structural Equation Modeling, this study used, besides Chi-square test, more model fit indexes to determine the tangibility of the suggested model: goodness-of-fit index(GFI) and root mean square error of approximation(RMSEA) as absolute fit indexes; normed-fit index(NFI) and non-normed-fit index(NNFI) as incremental fit indexes. The results of T-test and ANOVAs revealed significant differences(0.05 level), therefore H1(Tourist Satisfaction level should be different from Demographic traits) are supported. According to the multiple Regressions analysis and AMOS, H2(Tourist Satisfaction positively influences on revisit intention), H3(Tourist Satisfaction positively influences on word of mouth), H4(Evaluation Attributes of cultural tourism festivals influences on Tourist Satisfaction), and H5(Tourist Satisfaction positively influences on Behavioral Intention) are also supported. As the conclusion of this study are as following: First, there were differences in satisfaction levels in accordance with the demographic information of visitors. Not all visitors had the same degree of satisfaction with their cultural tourism festival experience. Therefore it is necessary to understand the satisfaction of tourists if the experiences that are provided are to meet their expectations. So, in making festival plans, the organizer should consider the demographic variables in explaining and segmenting visitors to cultural tourism festival. Second, satisfaction with attributes of evaluation cultural tourism festivals had a significant direct impact on visitors' intention to revisit such festivals and the word of mouth publicity they shared. The results indicated that visitor satisfaction is a significant antecedent of their intention to revisit such festivals. Festival organizers should strive to forge long-term relationships with the visitors. In addition, it is also necessary to understand how the intention to revisit a festival changes over time and identify the critical satisfaction factors. Third, it is confirmed that behavioral intention was enhanced by satisfaction. The strong link between satisfaction and behavioral intentions of visitors areensured by high quality advertisement and guides, programs, food and souvenirs, and convenient facilities. Thus, examining revisit intention from a time viewpoint may be of a great significance for both practical and theoretical reasons. Additionally, festival organizers should give special attention to visitor satisfaction, as satisfied visitors are more likely to return sooner. The findings of this research have several practical implications for the festivals managers. The promotion of cultural festivals should be based on the understanding of tourist satisfaction for the long- term success of tourism. And this study can help managers carry out this task in a more informed and strategic manner by examining the effects of demographic traits on the level of tourist satisfaction and the behavioral intention. In other words, differentiated marketing strategies should be stressed and executed by relevant parties. The limitations of this study are as follows; the results of this study cannot be generalized to other cultural tourism festivals because we have not explored the many different kinds of festivals. A future study should be a comparative analysis of other festivals of different visitor segments. Also, further efforts should be directed toward developing more comprehensive temporal models that can explain behavioral intentions of tourists.

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A Study of Guidelines for Genetic Counseling in Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD) (착상전 유전진단을 위한 유전상담 현황과 지침개발을 위한 기초 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Jee;Lee, Hyoung-Song;Kang, Inn-Soo;Jeong, Seon-Yong;Kim, Hyon-J.
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.125-132
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), also known as embryo screening, is a pre-pregnancy technique used to identify genetic defects in embryos created through in vitro fertilization. PGD is considered a means of prenatal diagnosis of genetic abnormalities. PGD is used when one or both genetic parents has a known genetic abnormality; testing is performed on an embryo to determine if it also carries the genetic abnormality. The main advantage of PGD is the avoidance of selective pregnancy termination as it imparts a high likelihood that the baby will be free of the disease under consideration. The application of PGD to genetic practices, reproductive medicine, and genetic counseling is becoming the key component of fertility practice because of the need to develop a custom PGD design for each couple. Materials and Methods: In this study, a survey on the contents of genetic counseling in PGD was carried out via direct contact or e-mail with the patients and specialists who had experienced PGD during the three months from February to April 2010. Results: A total of 91 persons including 60 patients, 49 of whom had a chromosomal disorder and 11 of whom had a single gene disorder, and 31 PGD specialists responded to the survey. Analysis of the survey results revealed that all respondents were well aware of the importance of genetic counseling in all steps of PGD including planning, operation, and follow-up. The patient group responded that the possibility of unexpected results (51.7%), genetic risk assessment and recurrence risk (46.7%), the reproduction options (46.7%), the procedure and limitation of PGD (43.3%) and the information of PGD technology (35.0%) should be included as a genetic counseling information. In detail, 51.7% of patients wanted to be counseled for the possibility of unexpected results and the recurrence risk, while 46.7% wanted to know their reproduction options (46.7%). Approximately 96.7% of specialists replied that a non-M.D. genetic counselor is necessary for effective and systematic genetic counseling in PGD because it is difficult for physicians to offer satisfying information to patients due to lack of counseling time and specific knowledge of the disorders. Conclusions: The information from the survey provides important insight into the overall present situation of genetic counseling for PGD in Korea. The survey results demonstrated that there is a general awareness that genetic counseling is essential for PGD, suggesting that appropriate genetic counseling may play a important role in the success of PGD. The establishment of genetic counseling guidelines for PGD may contribute to better planning and management strategies for PGD.