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Impact of Social Activities on Healthy Life Expectancy in Korean Older Adults: 13-Year Survival Analysis Focusing on Gender Comparison (한국 노인의 사회활동이 건강수명에 미치는 영향에 대한 생존분석: 성별 비교를 중심으로 한 13년간 분석)

  • Yang, Seungmin;Choi, Jae-Sung
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.547-566
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of social activities on healthy life expectancy (HLE) by gender difference. HLE implies an estimate of how long an individual can expect to live in full health or without disease and/or disability. Morbidity, mortality, and functional health status usually have been known as key variables. Many researchers have tried to investigate factors affecting HLE in countries level by performing comparative analyses. In micro level, there have been some studies about social factors affecting HLE in individual level. However, few studies are found focusing on the relationship between HLE and social activities. This study anlayzes 4,029 over 65 years of age from the first wave (2006) to the seventh wave (2018) of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLoSA), which is a national panel data collected by Korea Employment Information Service. The data has been collected as a part of social and economic policies planning for Korean government. HLE was measured by life period without disease or disability. One of findings is that male older adults (76.9 yrs) show higher HLE in comparing to female group (75.3 yrs). Female group appeared to be more likely to have higher incidence rate and disorders. Another finding indicates that age, number of chronic diseases, and subjective health status affect HLE of both groups. Finally, regarding social activities, religion affiliated activities appear to significantly affect HLE of both groups. In case of male older adults, alumni or hometown gathering also appeared another activities affecting HLE. This study indicates that the effect of social activities types on HLE among older adults appears differently by gender. Further, unlikely of longer life expectancy among female older adults as known, HLE shows a reverse estimate, longer healthy life expectancy among male older adults. This finding may imply that later life of female older adults shows lower quality of life in comparing to that of male group, even if female life expectancy has been higher. This study encourages to develop more social activity programs for older adults in community level. Specifically, more attention is required to planning for programs targeting female older adults.

Electrofusion of Yeast Cells and Their Genetic Analysis Using RAPD-PCR (효모세포의 전기융합 및 융합세포의 RAPD-PCR을 이용한 유전적 분석)

  • Kim, Seung;Kim, Jae-Sung;Sapkota, Kumar;Park, In-Sung;Cho, Moon-Gu;Park, Yeal;Chun, Hong-Sung;Choi, Bong-Suk;Park, Se-Eun;Choi, Han-Suk;Kim, Myung-Kon;Kim, Sung-Jun
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.186-191
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    • 2006
  • In the present study, an attempt has been made to produce hybrid yeast strains of different useful and dominant characteristics. The hybrid yeast strains were produced by electrofusion and their genetic analysis were performed by RAPD-PCR (random amplified polymorphic DNA-polymerase chain reaction). The protoplast of Saccharomyces cerevisiae KCTC 7904 and Zygosaccharomyces rouxii KCTC 7966 were obtained above 92% when treated with lyticase at $30^{\circ}C$ for $60{\sim}90$ min after the pretreatment of $1{\sim}2%$ 2-mercaptoethanol at $30^{\circ}C$ for $15{\sim}20$ min. The fusant was produced from paired protoplast stage under the electric pulse at high frequency conditions (1.5 MHz/50 pV, 615 $V/256\;{\mu}sec$) within glass-platinum made electrofusion chamber. Changes in RAPD patterns in mother cells and hybrid cells proved that the fusant contains two types of yeast gene originated from its parent. Furthermore, fermentation characters exhibits by the fusant cell confirmed its genetic changes. These results suggest that genetically stable hybrid yeast strains of economic importance can be produced by electrofusion technique and these electrofused yeast cells have an enormous impact in biotechnology and biomedicine.

The Moderating Role of Need for Cognitive Closure and Temporal Self-Construal in Consumer Satisfaction and Repurchase Consistency (만족도와 재구매 간 관계에 있어서 상황적 영향의 조절효과에 관한 연구 - 인지 종결 욕구와 일시적 자아 해석의 조절효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Min Hoon;Ha, Young Won
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.95-119
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    • 2010
  • Although there have been many studies regarding the inconsistency between consumers' attitudes and behavior, prior research has almost exclusively focused on the relationship between the attitude before behavior and the initial behavior. Relatively little research has been conducted on consumer satisfaction after purchase and post-purchase behavior. This research proposed that the relationship between satisfaction and post-purchase behavior is moderated by consumers' psychological characteristics such as need for cognitive closure(NCC) and temporal self-construal(SC). The need for cognitive closure refers to individuals' desire for a firm answer to a question and an aversion toward ambiguity. We assumed the need for cognitive closure as a major moderating variable because it is judged that the requirement for cognition clearly varies between when a consumer repurchases the same product and seeks a new alternative. Individuals who tend to end cognition due to time constraints or inappropriate conditions may display considerable cognitive impatience or impulsivity and has a higher probability in repurchasing the same product than a consumer without such limitations. They would avoid further consideration for new alternatives and the likelihood of the repurchase for prior alternative would increase. As hypothesized, significant moderating effect of the NCC was confirmed. This result gives a significant implication for a corporate to establish effective marketing strategies. For a corporate or product brand that has been occupying the market after entering the market earlier, it would be effective to maintain need for cognitive closure high in the existing consumers and thereby preventing the consumers from being interested in the new alternatives. On the other hand, new brands that have just entered the market need to lower the potential consumers' need for cognitive closure so that the consumers can be interested in new alternatives. Along with need for cognitive closure, temporal self-construal also turned out to moderate the satisfaction-repurchase. temporal SC reflects the extent to which individuals view themselves either as an individuated entity or in relation to others. Consumers under a temporarily independent SC would repurchase former alternative again according to their prior satisfaction and evaluation. In contrast, consumers in temporal interdependent SC tended to switch to a new alternative because they value interpersonal relationships above anything else and have a tendency to rely heavily on in-group opinions. When they are confronted with additional opinions, it is highly probable that he/she will choose a new product as an alternative. By proving the impact that temporal self-construal has on repurchasing behavior, this study is providing the marketers with new standards for establishing successful promotional strategies. For example, if the buyer and the user is the same for a product, it would be effective for the seller to convince the consumer to make decision subjectively by encouraging temporal independent self-construal. On the contrary, in the case where the purchase is made by an individual but the product is consumed by a group of people. For example, a housewife is more likely to choose the products or brands that her husband or children prefer rather than the ones that she likes by herself. In that case, emphasizing how the whole family can be satisfied and happy about the product would be effective for promoting repurchase.

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Analysis of Physical Status on COVID-19: Based on Impacts of Physical Activity (COVID-19에 대한 운동중재효과 분석)

  • Kim, Kwi-Baek;Kwak, Yi Sub
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.603-608
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this perspective research is to discuss the potential role of exercise-interventions in COVID-19, terms of prevention and prognosis in the periods of the COVID-19 vaccine. SARCO-CoV-2. COVID-19 was detected as a new virus causing severe cardiovascular and respiratory complications. It emerged as a global public health emergency and national pandemic. It caused more than 1 million deaths in the first 6 months of the pandemic and resulted in huge social and economic fluctuations internationally. Unprecedented stressful situations, such as COVID-19 blue and COVID-19 red impact on many health problems. In healthy individuals, COVID-19 infection may induced no symptoms (i.e., asymptomatic), whereas others may experience flu-like symptoms, such as ARDS, pneumonia, and death. Poor health status, such as obesity and cardiovascular and respiratory complications, are high risk factors for COVID-19 prevention, occurrence, and prognosis. Several COVID-19 vaccines are currently in human trials. However, the efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccines, including potential side effects, such as anaphylaxis (a life-threatening allergic reaction) and rare blood clots, still need to be investigated. On the basis of direct and indirect evidence, it seems that regular and moderate physical exercise can be recommended as a nonpharmacological, efficient, and safe way to cope with COVID-19. Physical inactivity and metabolic abnormalities are directly associated with reduced immune responses, including reduced innate, CMI, and AMI responses. Due to prolonged viral shedding, quarantine in inactive, obese and disease people should likely be longer than physical active people. Multicomponent and systemic exercise should be considered for the obese, disease, and elderly people. More mechanism research is needed in this area.

Impact of the Environmental Factors on Adolescents' Food Purchasing Attitudes (청소년의 식품구매태도에 대한 환경 요인의 영향)

  • Kim, Hyun-Ju;Kim, Yoo Kyeong
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.43-58
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted to investigate adolescents' food purchasing attitudes and related factors in the aim of improving youth's ability to purchase food properly and providing basic data on educational program development regarding dietary life. Total 476 adolescents residing in Daegu area participated in this study, and followings are the summary of the results. In terms of concerns in food purchasing, adolescents put priority in order of price(3.81±0.64), taste(3.70±0.72), safety(3.52±0.78), health(2.93±0.92). With respect to food purchasing attitudes, a significant differences were found in economic concern(p<.05) by gender and by the amount of allowance; preference(p<.01) and safety(p<.01) by school year. The analysis of environmental factors affecting food purchasing attitudes revealed that adolescents were most influenced by their parents(3.44±0.62) in food purchasing, whereas friends' influences(2.43±0.60) were relatively low. Regarding the effect of environmental factors on food purchasing, significant differences were found in parents(p<.05) and brands(p<.05) by gender; friends(p<.01) and parents(p<.05) by school year; friends(p<.01) by the amount of allowance. Food purchasing attitudes represented positive correlation with parents, advertisements and brands(p<.001). In addition, regression analysis showed that parents and advertisements affect adolescents' food purchasing. Conclusively, adolescents appear to prioritize price and taste, and they were influenced most by their parents when purchasing food. Therefore, parents, serving as a consumer role model, should instruct their children to learn considerate attitude in food purchasing.

Business Relationships and Structural Bonding: A Study of American Metal Industry (산업재 거래관계와 구조적 결합: 미국 금속산업의 분석 연구)

  • Han, Sang-Lin;Kim, Yun-Tae;Oh, Chang-Yeob;Chung, Jae-Moon
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.115-132
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    • 2008
  • Metal industry is one of the most representative heavy industries and the median sales volume of steel and nonferrous metal companies is over one billion dollars in the case America [Forbes 2006]. As seen in the recent business market situation, an increasing number of industrial manufacturers and suppliers are moving from adversarial to cooperative exchange attitudes that support the long-term relationships with their customers. This article presents the results of an empirical study of the antecedent factors of business relationships in metal industry of the United States. Commitment has been reviewed as a significant and critical variable in research on inter-organizational relationships (Hong et al. 2007, Kim et al. 2007). The future stability of any buyer-seller relationship depends upon the commitment made by the interactants to their relationship. Commitment, according to Dwyer et al. [1987], refers to "an implicit or explicit pledge of relational continuity between exchange partners" and they consider commitment to be the most advanced phase of buyer-seller exchange relationship. Bonds are made because the members need their partners in order to do something and this integration on a task basis can be either symbiotic or cooperative (Svensson 2008). To the extent that members seek the same or mutually supporting ends, there will be strong bonds among them. In other words, the principle that affects the strength of bonds is 'economy of decision making' [Turner 1970]. These bonds provide an important idea to study the causes of business long-term relationships in a sense that organizations can be mutually bonded by a common interest in the economic matters. Recently, the framework of structural bonding has been used to study the buyer-seller relationships in industrial marketing [Han and Sung 2008, Williams et al. 1998, Wilson 1995] in that this structural bonding is a crucial part of the theoretical justification for distinguishing discrete transactions from ongoing long-term relationships. The major antecedent factors of buyer commitment such as technology, CLalt, transaction-specific assets, and importance were identified and explored from the perspective of structural bonding. Research hypotheses were developed and tested by using survey data from the middle managers in the metal industry. H1: Level of technology of the relationship partner is positively related to the level of structural bonding between the buyer and the seller. H2: Comparison level of alternatives is negatively related to the level of structural bonding between the buyer and the seller. H3: Amount of the transaction-specific assets is positively related to the level of structural bonding between the buyer and the seller. H4: Importance of the relationship partner is positively related to the level of structural bonding between the buyer and the seller. H5: Level of structural bonding is positively related to the level of commitment to the relationship. To examine the major antecedent factors of industrial buyer's structural bonding and long-term relationship, questionnaire was prepared, mailed out to the sample of 400 purchasing managers of the US metal industry (SIC codes 33 and 34). After a follow-up request, 139 informants returnedthe questionnaires, resulting in a response rate of 35 percent. 134 responses were used in the final analysis after dropping 5 incomplete questionnaires. All measures were analyzed for reliability and validity following the guidelines offered by Churchill [1979] and Anderson and Gerbing [1988]., the results of fitting the model to the data indicated that the hypothesized model provides a good fit to the data. Goodness-of-fit index (GFI = 0.94) and other indices ( chi-square = 78.02 with p-value = 0.13, Adjusted GFI = 0.90, Normed Fit Index = 0.92) indicated that a major proportion of variances and covariances in the data was accounted for by the model as a whole, and all the parameter estimates showed statistical significance as evidenced by large t-values. All the factor loadings were significantly different from zero. On these grounds we judged the hypothesized model to be a reasonable representation of the data. The results from the present study suggest several implications for buyer-seller relationships. Theoretically, we attempted to conceptualize the antecedent factors of buyer-seller long-term relationships from the perspective of structural bondingin metal industry. The four underlying determinants (i.e. technology, CLalt, transaction-specific assets, and importance) of structural bonding are very critical variables of buyer-seller long-term business relationships. Our model of structural bonding makes an attempt to systematically examine the relationship between the antecedent factors of structural bonding and long-term commitment. Managerially, this research provides industrial purchasing managers with a good framework to assess the interaction processes with their partners and, ability to position their business relationships from the perspective of structural bonding. In other words, based on those underlying variables, industrial purchasing managers can determine the strength of the company's relationships with the key suppliers and its state of preparation to be a successful partner with those suppliers. Both the supplying and customer companies can also benefit by using the concept of 'structural bonding' and evaluating their relationships with key business partners from the structural point of view. In general, the results indicate that structural bonding gives a critical impact on the level of relationship commitment. Managerial implications and limitations of the study are also discussed.

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Structure of Export Competition between Asian NIEs and Japan in the U.S. Import Market and Exchange Rate Effects (한국(韓國)의 아시아신흥공업국(新興工業國) 및 일본(日本)과의 대미수출경쟁(對美輸出競爭) : 환율효과(換率效果)를 중심(中心)으로)

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.3-49
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    • 1990
  • This paper analyzes U.S. demand for imports from Asian NIEs and Japan, utilizing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer, with an emphasis on the effect of changes in the exchange rate. The empirical model assumes a two-stage budgeting process in which the first stage represents the allocation of total U.S. demand among three groups: the Asian NIEs and Japan, six Western developed countries, and the U.S. domestic non-tradables and import competing sector. The second stage represents the allocation of total U.S. imports from the Asian NIEs and Japan among them, by country. According to the AIDS model, the share equation for the Asia NIEs and Japan in U.S. nominal GNP is estimated as a single equation for the first stage. The share equations for those five countries in total U.S. imports are estimated as a system with the general demand restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry and adding-up, together with polynomially distributed lag restrictions. The negativity condition is also satisfied for all cases. The overall results of these complicated estimations, using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1972 to the fourth quarter of 1989, are quite promising in terms of the significance of individual estimators and other statistics. The conclusions drawn from the estimation results and the derived demand elasticities can be summarized as follows: First, the exports of each Asian NIE to the U.S. are competitive with (substitutes for) Japan's exports, while complementary to the exports of fellow NIEs, with the exception of the competitive relation between Hong Kong and Singapore. Second, the exports of each Asian NIE and of Japan to the U.S. are competitive with those of Western developed countries' to the U.S, while they are complementary to the U.S.' non-tradables and import-competing sector. Third, as far as both the first and second stages of budgeting are coneidered, the imports from each Asian NIE and Japan are luxuries in total U.S. consumption. However, when only the second budgeting stage is considered, the imports from Japan and Singapore are luxuries in U.S. imports from the NIEs and Japan, while those of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are necessities. Fourth, the above results may be evidenced more concretely in their implied exchange rate effects. It appears that, in general, a change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have at least as great an impact, on an NIE's share and volume of exports to the U.S. though in the opposite direction, as a change in the exchange rate of the NIE's own currency $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar. Asian NIEs, therefore, should counteract yen-dollar movements in order to stabilize their exports to the U.S.. More specifically, Korea should depreciate the value of the won relative to the dollar by approximately the same proportion as the depreciation rate of the yen $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar, in order to maintain the volume of Korean exports to the U.S.. In the worst case scenario, Korea should devalue the won by three times the maguitude of the yen's depreciation rate, in order to keep market share in the aforementioned five countries' total exports to the U.S.. Finally, this study provides additional information which may support empirical findings on the competitive relations among the Asian NIEs and Japan. The correlation matrices among the strutures of those five countries' exports to the U.S.. during the 1970s and 1980s were estimated, with the export structure constructed as the shares of each of the 29 industrial sectors' exports as defined by the 3 digit KSIC in total exports to the U.S. from each individual country. In general, the correlation between each of the four Asian NIEs and Japan, and that between Hong Kong and Singapore, are all far below .5, while the ones among the Asian NIEs themselves (except for the one between Hong Kong and Singapore) all greatly exceed .5. If there exists a tendency on the part of the U.S. to import goods in each specific sector from different countries in a relatively constant proportion, the export structures of those countries will probably exhibit a high correlation. To take this hypothesis to the extreme, if the U.S. maintained an absolutely fixed ratio between its imports from any two countries for each of the 29 sectors, the correlation between the export structures of these two countries would be perfect. Therefore, since any two goods purchased in a fixed proportion could be classified as close complements, a high correlation between export structures will imply a complementary relationship between them. Conversely, low correlation would imply a competitive relationship. According to this interpretation, the pattern formed by the correlation coefficients among the five countries' export structures to the U.S. are consistent with the empirical findings of the regression analysis.

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The Effect of the Quality of Education Service on the Performance of Education Service through Relationship Commitment in Franchise Beauty Academy: Moderating Effect of Trust Level (프랜차이즈 뷰티 아카데미의 교육서비스 품질이 관계 몰입을 통한 교육 서비스 성과에 미치는 영향 연구: 신뢰 수준의 조절효과)

  • Kim, Chang-Bong;Kim, Hee-Su
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.193-211
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    • 2021
  • Recently, interest in Korean Wave craze and K-beauty, led by K-pop, is increasing. In addition, the popularity and influence of the domestic beauty service industry has increased, and the economic and cultural ripple effects have been continuously expanding. The need to professional manpower training in response to the demand for manpower due to the growing development of domestic beauty services is emphasized, and the number of trainees who are actual consumers of beauty academy is increasing. Therefore, the purpose of our study is to examine the importance of quality factors of educational services to achieve educational purposes in the educational services provided by the Beauty Academy and the relationship between relationship commitment and educational service performance. Furthermore, it is to draw the importance of administrative support services, educational programs as well as educational service provision activities. However, the research for professional manpower training according to the provision of beauty services is insufficient compared to the development speed of the beauty industry. Therefore, at the present time when beauty service education is emphasized, our study will examine the relationship between relationship commitment and educational service performance based on the quality of education service by the students of domestic beauty academy. The measurement variables set for our study are program, instructor quality, tuition, external service, service fairness, relationship commitment, trust level, and educational service performance. The variables were analyzed and derived through the survey, and the following contents were derived from the empirical analysis. First, the quality of education service provided by the beauty academy, such as program, external service, service fairness, relationship commitment and trust level, had a significant effect on relationship commitment. Educational services provided by the institute, such as the systematicity and diversity of educational programs, enabled students to have a uniform relationship commitment. The quality of education service itself is to learn the expertise necessary for providing beauty service from the standpoint of the students and play an organic role in the relationship with the institute. Second, the moderating effect of trust level between academies and students was significant in the quality of education service and the relationship commitment. This means that students will feel higher level of service quality through the practical trust relationship of the students about the educational services provided by the institute. Based on the results of the empirical analysis, the implications of our study are to find ways to improve the students' ability and satisfaction represented by the results of educational services. This is because the quality of education services provided by the institute called Beauty Academy will have a great impact on the career choice of educational facilities and students. The characteristics of consistency, convenience, and knowledge orientation of education itself should be considered comprehensively, and a strong market position should be established through image formation through external service factors, which are external environments of academies.Furthermore, in terms of presenting differentiated strategies with competitors, the educational service quality factors play a significant role in the commitment to the relationship with the students, so the role of relationship marketing will be important for the psychological stability experienced by the students by grasping the demand accompanying the behavior of the students in advance.

Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Rural Migration and Changes of Agricultural Population (농민이촌(農民離村)과 농업인구(農業人口)의 변화(變化))

  • Wu, Tsong-Shien;Kim, Kuong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.91-116
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    • 1974
  • Taiwan agricultural development in the last decade has not been changed much since the accomplishment of land reform program. This is mainly due to the rapid development taken place within industry that agricultural development can not keep pace with. The increasing gap of rural-urban income discrepancy has caused socio-psychological unstability among rural people and inspire wants of out-migration. From 1961 to 1970, population of the ten largest cities showed an annual growth rate of 4.05%, while the population of the remainder of Taiwan showed 2.06%. Assuming the natural increase rate of these two population sections are similar, the difference of rural and urban annual growth rate can be at tributed to the flow of people from rural to urban sectors. The main objective of this paper is to identify the amount of agricultural out-migration and its impact on agricultural development and agricultural extension programs. Specifically, the objectives are to examine (1) rural-urban population composition (2) rural out-migration estimation (3) changes of agricultural population, and (4) implications for agricultural development and extension programs Some of the important findings are listed below; (1) The average agricultural out migration of the period 1960-1969 is estimated at around 60,000 per year. Take Tainan prefecture for example, the Male-Female Migration Ratio is 0.39 for age 20-24, 0.55 for age 25-29, 0.90 for 30-34. It is understood between age 20 and 34, the rural female migration rate is higher than the rural male. (2) Based on the population growth rate of 1950-1969, agricultural population is projected for the period of 1953 to 1989. By 1978, the agricultural population will reach its peak and begin to dedaine from 1980. The projected agricultural population in 1989 is 5,847,566 which occupies 29% of the Taiwan total population. (3) Assuming area of cultivated land keep unchanged as 905,263 ha. in 1970, and tif we can eliminate all 72% of part-time farms, then the average farm acreage for hose full-time farms will be increased to 3.6 hactares. This is unlikely to happen before 1989 without the government interference. (4) Less than 10% of adult farmer s of age 25-64 in 1969 enrolled in Farm Discussion Club, only 5% of adult farm women enrolled in Home Economics Club, and 5% of rural youth enrolled in 4-H Club. These statistics show a fact that only few farmers are reached by extension workers. Based on findings in this paper, some important suggestions are listed for future agricultural development. (1) Improve agricultural structure by decreasing agricultural population (a) Encourage farmers with less than 0.5 ha. of land to seek jobs outside of agriculture (b) Encourage joint cultivation and farm mechanization (c) Discourage rural migrants to Keep farm land (d) Provide occupational guidance program through extension education programs (2) Establish future farmers settlement project to assure rural youth have enough resources for farming. (3) An optimum Population policy should be integrated into rural socio-economic development and national development programs.

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