• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.97-106
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• 2024

The seasonal forecast skill of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northern Hemisphere from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Seasonal Forecast System version 6 (GloSea6) hindcast has been verified for the period 1993 to 2016. The operational climate prediction system at KMA was upgraded from GloSea5 to GloSea6 in 2022, therefore further validation was warranted for the seasonal predictability and variability of this new system for TC forecasts. In this study, we examine the frequency, track density, duration, and strength of TCs in the North Indian Ocean, the western North Pacific, the eastern North Pacific, and the North Atlantic against the best track data. This methodology follows a previous study covering the period 1996 to 2009 published in 2020. GloSea6 indicates a higher frequency of TC generation compared to observations in the western North Pacific and the eastern North Pacific, suggesting the possibility of more TC generation than GloSea5. Additionally, GloSea6 exhibits better interannual variability of TC frequency, which shows relatively good correlation with observations in the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific. Regarding TC intensity, GloSea6 still underestimates the minimum surface pressures and maximum wind speeds from TCs, as is common among most climate models due to lower horizontal resolutions. However, GloSea6 is likely capable of simulating slightly stronger TCs than GloSea5, partly attributed to more frequent 6-hourly outputs compared to the previous daily outputs.

• Maritime Security
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.61-92
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• 2020

This paper attempts to examine the changes in China's naval strategy and to analyze the goal, range, and method of each strategy during the Xi Jinping's era. Since the founding of New China, the People's Liberation of Army Navy(PLAN) has made four changes in the naval strategy. Under Xi Jinping's administration, China's naval strategy is far seas operation combined with near seas active defense. Now, China's naval strateg y is shifting from a defensive to an aggressive one, increasing the proportion of offensive weapon systems and the number of state-of-the-art warships, and the scope of the naval strategy has been specified in the second island chain including the Indian Ocean. With the changes of naval strategy, the PLAN will set a new strategic goal to secure maritime dominance and implement an assertive strategy to actively respond to the intervention and intrusion of external forces. Moreover, the PLAN will also improve its sea-based deterrence force and the maneuver force to block other countries in the long-distance maritime conflict zones. The operation method of China's future naval strateg y will gradually shift from 'interdiction' to 'rapid-response.'

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.295-305
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• 2023

This study introduces a smoothed finite-element implementation into the phase-field framework. In recent years, the phase-field method has recieved considerable attention in crack initiation and propagation since the method needs no further treatment to express the crack growth path. In the phase-field method, high strain-energy accuracy is needed to capture the complex crack growth path; thus, it is obtained in the framework of the smoothed finite-element method. The salient feature of the smoothed finite-element method is that the finite element cells are divided into sub-cells and each sub-cell is rebuilt as a smoothing domain where smoothed strain energy is calculated. An adaptive quadtree refinement is also employed in the present framework to avoid the computational burden. Numerical experiments are performed to investigate the performance of the proposed approach, compared with that of the finite-element method and the reference solutions.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.293-309
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• 2020

There are lots of indices that define the intensity of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in climate systems. This paper assesses the prediction skill for EASM indices in a Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) that is currently operating at KMA. Total 5 different types of EASM indices (WNPMI, EAMI, WYI, GUOI, and SAHI) are selected to investigate how well GloSea5 reproduces them using hindcasts with 12 ensemble members with 1~3 lead months. Each index from GloSea5 is compared to that from ERA-Interim. Hindcast results for the period 1991~2010 show the highest prediction skill for WNPMI which is defined as the difference between the zonal winds at 850 hPa over East China Sea and South China Sea. WYI, defined as the difference between the zonal winds of upper and lower level over the Indian Ocean far from East Asia, is comparatively well captured by GloSea5. Though the prediction skill for EAMI which is defined by using meridional winds over areas of East Asia and Korea directly affected by EASM is comparatively low, it seems that EAMI is useful for predicting the variability of precipitation by EASM over East Asia. The regressed atmospheric fields with EASM index and the correlation with precipitation also show that GloSea5 best predicts the synoptic environment of East Asia for WNPMI among 5 EASM indices. Note that the result in this study is limited to interpret only for GloSea5 since the prediction skill for EASM index depends greatly on climate forecast model systems.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.323-337
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• 2015

This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of several climate indices that influence on East Asian climate in the GloSea5 hindcast experiment. Such indices include Nino3.4, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), various summer and winter Asian monsoon indices. The model's prediction skill of these indices is evaluated by computing the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS) for ensemble mean values over the period of 1996~2009. In general, climate indices that have low seasonal variability are predicted well. For example, in terms of ACC, Nino3.4 index is predicted well at least 6 months in advance. The IOD index is also well predicted in late summer and autumn. This contrasts with the prediction skill of AO index which shows essentially no skill beyond a few months except in February and August. Both summer and winter Asian monsoon indices are also poorly predicted. An exception is the Western North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) index that exhibits a prediction skill up to 4- to 6-month lead time. However, when MSSS is considered, most climate indices, except Nino3.4 index, show a negligible prediction skill, indicating that conditional bias is significant in the model. These results are only weakly sensitive to the number of ensemble members.

• Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.54-62
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• 2017

China has invested for military satellite technology development to construct the space-based surveillance system from existing land-based and aerostat surveillance system since 1960s to react rapidly for deployment of marine force of United States and surrounding nations in west Pacific, south China sea and Indian ocean. China has also launched about 40 the Yaogan military intelligence satellites series for EO, SAR and ELINT fields since 2006 after the required technique with several technical experiment satellites launch and operational test. ELINT satellites transmit data from satellite to earth station in real time with construction space-based network around it. Those data are simultaneously delivered to Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile(ASBM) connected land-based C4ISR network for marine target attack. Therefore China has enhanced surveillance and attack capability to the surrounding marine nations with space-based network around it. In the future, It is considered that China will increase accurate location search, signal processing and analysis ability through a further study on its technology.

• Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.241-253
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• 2021

Manganese nodules have been found in the shallow water depth of the Arctic Ocean as well as in the abyssal plains of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, but detailed study for them were rarely investigated. Manganese nodules, collected from the East Siberian Sea through the Arctic Expedition using Araon ice braking vessel, have a high potential for Mn mineral resources because they have high Mn content with high Mn/Fe ratio. This study investigated the external form, size and weight, internal texture for the non-spherical manganese nodule, which has about 7 % of total nodule from the East Siberian Sea. This study also researched the relative Mn-oxide mineral composition using the peak area ratio of X-ray diffraction pattern and their chemical composition. All data obtained from non-spherical nodules were compared with the spherical ones. Ellipsoidal, platy and irregular types are common among 5 groups of non-spherical manganese nodule based on the external form, and major axis and weight have positive relationship. All non-spherical manganese nodules have core mainly composed of mud sediments. The average Mn oxide mineral contents in nodules are birnessite, buserite and todorokite in descending order. Although mineral composition does not show any correlation with the external form, kind of core or internal structure, todorokite and buserite contents tend to increase and birnessite content decrease from the surface to the core in the nodule. Non-spherical manganese nodules have higher Mn content and Mn/Fe ratio than those from the shallow water depth of the Arctic Sea and even in the deep-sea of the Pacific and Indian Ocean. Although non-spherical nodule is larger and heavier, and has lower Mn content and Mn/Fe ratio than spherical nodule, there are not any differences in mineral composition and internal structure between them. Almost all manganese nodules collected from the East Siberian Sea are attributed to diagenetic process, because they are higher than 5 in Mn/Fe ratio.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.41
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• pp.293-326
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• 2014

Piracy is a worldwide issue, but the deteriorating security situation in the seas off Somalia, the Gulf of Aden and the wider Western Indian Ocean between 2005 and 2012 and in the increasing number of attacks in the Gulf of Guinea are a major problem. The depth of concern for the problem internationally is amply demonstrated by the levels of co-operation and coordination among naval and other forces from several countries that have assembled in the west Indian Ocean region and the Gulf of Aden to escort ships carrying humanitarian aid to Somalia and to protect vulnerable shipping. Notwithstanding this unprecedented effort, the vast sea area in which the pirates now operate makes it difficult to patrol and monitor effectively, particularly with the limited resources available. More resources, in the form of naval vessels and aircraft, are needed and at every opportunity the IMO encourages Member Governments to make greater efforts to provide the additional naval, aerial surveillance and other resources needed through every means possible. IMO provide interim guidance and recommendations to be taken into account when considering the use of PCASP(privately contracted armed security personnel) if and when a flag State determines that such a measure would be lawful and, following a full risk assessment, appropriate. The interim guidance and recommendations of IMO are not intended to endorse or institutionalize the use of armed guards. Therefore, they do not represent any fundamental change of policy by the Organization in this regard. It is for each flag State, individually, to decide whether or not PCASP should be authorized for use on board ships flying their flag. If a flag State decides to permit this practice, it is up to that State to determine the conditions under which authorization will be granted. Therefore, Korea should be introduced rationally PCASP for safe shipping. PCASP on board ships is much the same to special guard personnel of security services industry act. Act plan of Oceans and fisheries ministry on PCASP collides with special guard personnel system of National Police Agency. Rather than new law making, PCASP regukations have to be included in security services industry act. Management Agency of PCASP is to not Oceans and fisheries ministry, but Central Headquarters Korea Coast Guard of Public Safety and Security Ministry because of specialty and closely connection.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.1-21
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• 1995

The characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon have been investigated for the periods of 1993/1994, the contrasting years in a view of the summer monsoon precipitation. In order to investigate the monsoon features over the eastern Asian monsoon region, the cloudiness(using the extensive data derived by the geostationary meteorological satellite), the condition of underlying surface including sea-surface temperature, and the summer rainfall are analyzed and some comparisons with 1993 and 1994 are also made and the characteristic differences are discussed. An analysis of the 2-degree latitude-longitude gridded 5-day mean high cloud amount data shows the detailed movement and persistence of the convective activities. In order to describe the spatial and temporal structures of the intraseasonal oscillation for the movement and evolution of the monsoon cloud, the extended empirical orthogonal fnction analysis with the twenty-day window size is used for the each year. Also, in order to find out the periodicity of the equatorial convective cluster, Fourier harmonic analysis is applied to the each year. The most prevailing intraseasonal oscillations of high cloud amount are 61 day mode and 15day mode in the equatorial and the subtropical oceans. However it was found that the most prevailing modes over the equatorial western Pacific and Indian Ocean were different for each year, hence raising the possibillity that the contrasting monsoon presipitation may be more fundamentally related to the interaction of intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal variation of convective activities over the lower latitude ocean.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.268-268
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• 2023

전 지구적 급격한 기후변화로 인해 수문기상인자들의 비선형적 변동성이 발생함과 동시에 가뭄, 홍수와 같은 수재해의 발생빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 이에 따라, 세계의 유수기관 (NASA, ESA 등)에서는 대기모형과 해양 모형의 결합 및 수치해석적 접근법을 활용하여 계절내-계절 (Subseasonal to seasonal; S2S) 예측치를 생산하여 제공하고 있다. 이에 따라, 본 연구에서는 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)에서 산정되는 수문기상인자 (강수량, 증발산량 및 유출량)에 대한 정확도를 평가하고자 한다. 연구지역으로는 다양한 기후대 및 토지 피복으로 구성되어 있으며, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD)와 같은 기후 현상이 빈번히 발생하는 호주지역을 대상으로 연구를 수행하였다. ECMWF S2S 자료에 대한 통계적 검증은 1) 지점 기반 관측치와 더불어 2) 물수지 모델 기반 수문 추정치 (The Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape Model; AWRA-L)와 비교하였다. 연구 결과 S2S 강우 및 증발산량 산정치의 경우 비교적 짧은 예측기간(약 2주)에서 상대적으로 높은 상관관계 (R=0.5~0.6)와 낮은 편차 (강수량 = 0.10 mm/day, 증발산량 = 0.21 mm/day)를 나타내었다. 유출량의 경우, 강우 및 증발산량에 비해 상대적으로 낮은 정확도를 나타내었으며, 예측 기간이 길어짐에 따라 불확실성이 상당히 높아지는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는, S2S 계산과정에서 강우 및 증발산량 뿐만아니라 지표 유출로 도달하기 전까지의 수문기상인자들의 불확실성이 모두 모여 유출량의 불확실성이 높아진 것으로 확인할 수 있었다. 계절적 검증에서는, 강우 및 증발산량 모두 여름철에 높은 상관관계를 나타내었지만 불확실성은 상대적으로 큰 값을 나타내었다. 자세한 분석을 위해, 공간적인 불확실성을 분석해본 결과 ECMWF S2S가 매우 습윤하거나 건조한 지역에서 수문기상인자를 예측하는데 있어 한계성이 나타난 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 토대로, 추후 S2S 예측치에 대한 보정과 더불어 미래의 수재해 발생 위험도에 대한 정보를 획득하는데 적용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.