• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.43-58
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• 2013

This work investigates factors that may affect the choice of real options by ERP project managers. Financial theory suggest that these factors include risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, volatility of net present value, and options exercise price. Other than these factors, we are interested in the exogenous risks related to external uncertainties about technological cost, user learning and consulting, and so forth and we argue these risks should have a significant impact upon the volatility of net present value. To validate these factors empirically, we collected survey questionnaires from ERP project managers in Korea. We find that perceived exogenous risks with regard to ERP projects influence volatility and additionally find that ERP project managers prefer contract options of the project when the volatility of the project is expected to be high. We expect that this work will not only validate theoretical propositions but help project managers consider ERP options strategically based on these factors.

• Journal of Powder Materials
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.528-538
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• 2019

The transition from "More-of-Less" markets (economies of scale) to "Less-of-More" markets (economies of scope) is supported by advances of disruptive manufacturing and reconfigurable-supply-chain management technologies. With the prevalence of cyber-physical manufacturing systems, additive manufacturing technology is of great impact on industry, the economy, and society. Traditionally, backbone structures are built via bottom-up manufacturing with either pre-fabricated building blocks such as bricks or with layer-by-layer concrete casting such as climbing form-work casting. In both cases, the design selection is limited by form-work design and cost. Accordingly, the tool-less building of architecture with high design freedom is attractive. In the present study, we review the technological trends of additive manufacturing for construction-scale additive manufacturing in particular. The rapid tooling of patterns or molds and rapid manufacturing of construction parts or whole structures is extensively explored through uncertainties from technology. The future regulation still has drawbacks in the adoption of additive manufacturing in construction industries.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.87-98
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• 1998

In this paper, the potential ground motion in terms of the peak ground accelerations(PGAs) due to long-distance Sumatra earthquakes is investigated for Singapore, following the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment a, pp.oach. The case investigated differs from a conventional one, in that few attenuation equations for long-distance major earthquakes are readily available. The attenuation relationships developed for other regions of the world are thus reviewed. It is found that the existing attenuation equations, when extrapolated to distant major earthquakes, tend to underestimate the PGAs. By comparing with the PGAs recorded over long distances at stations of the Japanese Meteorological Agency for major earthquakes in Japan, an attenuation equation is chosen for this study. With the chosen attenuation equation, the probability of PGAs exceeding selected levels for various exposure periods of time is then computed. The results show that at Singapore there is a 10% probability in 50 years for the PGA at rock sites to exceed 1.1% g. In view of the results and the associated uncertainties, a base shear coefficient of 1.5% is being recommended as the tentative seismic loading in Singapore. The tentative seismic loading reflects the design value of the notional horizontal load, equal to 1.5% of the characteristic building weigh as specified in the BS code, which usualy governs the design of most buildings in Singapors.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.309-333
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• 2010

Civil infrastructure, in both its construction and maintenance, represents the largest societal investment in this country, outside of the health care industry. Despite being the lifeline of US commerce, civil infrastructure has scarcely benefited from the latest sensor technological advances. Our future should focus on harnessing these technologies to enhance the robustness, longevity and economic viability of this vast, societal investment, in light of inherent uncertainties and their exposure to service and even extreme loadings. One of the principal means of insuring the robustness and longevity of infrastructure is to strategically deploy smart sensors in them. Therefore, the objective is to develop novel, durable, smart sensors that are especially applicable to major infrastructure and the facilities to validate their reliability and long-term functionality. In some cases, this implies the development of new sensing elements themselves, while in other cases involves innovative packaging and use of existing sensor technologies. In either case, a parallel focus will be the integration and networking of these smart sensing elements for reliable data acquisition, transmission, and fusion, within a decision-making framework targeting efficient management and maintenance of infrastructure systems. In this paper, prudent and viable sensor and health monitoring technologies have been developed and used in several large structural systems. Discussion will also include several practical bridge health monitoring applications including their design, construction, and operation of the systems.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.25-47
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• 2004

The globalizing economic processes based on knowledge-based economic systems have changed the environment of competition between corporations fundamentally. As a result, all corporations must carry out their own activities for innovation in order to strengthen their competitiveness continuously. However, it may be difficult for the companies to meet the demand of rapidly changing markets as well as technological changes by themselves. Therefore, most of companies intensify their interdependent collaboration with other corporations for carrying out innovative activities. This is a process of building innovation networks. Innovation networks can provide opportunities to learn latest technologies and at the same time reduce uncertainties for the future. In fact, innovation networks enable not only to provide information about technology, market etc. but also to create learning processes between innovative actors. Thus, innovation networks are the most significant factor to stimulate innovative activities as well as to generate the growth of companies. This paper argues about impacts of innovation networks on the result of innovative activities. Furthermore, this focuses on the analysis of characters of corporations as well as patterns between innovation networks and innovation results.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.201-221
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• 2015

The fatigue damage problems are frequently encountered in the design of civil engineering structures. A realistic and accurate fatigue life prediction is quite essential to ensure the safety of engineering design. However, constructing a reliable fatigue life prediction model can be quite challenging. The use of traditional deterministic approach in predicting the fatigue life is sometimes too dangerous in the real practical designs as the method itself contains a wide range of uncertain factors. In this paper, a new fatigue life prediction method is going to be proposed where the residual strength is been utilized. Several cumulative damage models, capable of predicting the fatigue life of a structural element, are considered. Based on Miner's rule, a randomized approach is developed from a deterministic equation. The residual strength is used in a one to one transformation methodology which is used for the derivation of the fatigue life. To arrive at more robust results, fuzzy sets are introduced to model the parameter uncertainties. This leads to a convoluted fuzzy based fatigue life prediction model. The developed model is illustrated in an example analysis. The calculated results are compared with real experimental data. The applicability of this approach for a required reliability level is also discussed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.471-484
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• 2020

Previous earthquakes show that, structural safety evaluations should include the evaluation of nonstructural components. Failure of nonstructural components can affect the operational capacity of critical facilities, such as hospitals and fire stations, which can cause an increase in number of deaths. Additionally, failure of nonstructural components may result in economic, architectural, and historical losses of community. Accelerations and random vibrations must be under the predefined limitations in structures with high technological equipment, data centers in this case. Failure of server equipment and anchored server racks are investigated in this study. A probabilistic study is completed for a low-rise rigid sample structure. The structure is investigated in two versions, (i) conventional fixed-based structure and (ii) with a base isolation system. Seismic hazard assessment is completed for the selected site. Monte Carlo simulations are generated with selected parameters. Uncertainties in both structural parameters and mechanical properties of isolation system are included in simulations. Anchorage failure and vibration failures are investigated. Different methods to generate fragility curves are used. The site-specific annual hazard curve is used to generate risk curves for two different structures. A risk matrix is proposed for the design of data centers. Results show that base isolation systems reduce the failure probability significantly in higher floors. It was also understood that, base isolation systems are highly sensitive to earthquake characteristics rather than variability in structural and mechanical properties, in terms of accelerations. Another outcome is that code-provided anchorage failure limitations are more vulnerable than the random vibration failure limitations of server equipment.

• Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.97-129
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• 2008

We are living in the time of high probability of technological risk due to increased rate of technology development and diffusion of new technologies. Resolving uncertainties, the basic attribution of risk, by accumulating knowledge over the risk factors of certain technology is critical to management of technological risk. In many cases of technological risks, high uncertainty of knowledge is commonly mentioned reason for public controversies on risk management. However, the type of technological risk with low social agreement and low uncertainty of knowledge, the main reason for public controversy is absence of social agreement. Public debates on the risks of mobile phones electromagnetic fields(EMF) to human health comes under this category. The knowledge uncertainty on human health effect of mobile phones EMF has been lowered increasingly by accumulating enormous volume of knowledge though scientists have not reached a final conclusion whether it pose a risk to the physical and mental health of the general population or not. In contrast with civil organizations calling for precautionary approach based regulation, the mobile phone industry is cling to the position of no-regulation-needed by arguing no clear evidence to prove health risks of mobile phone EMF has found. In Korea, government set exposure standards based on a measurement called the 'specific absorption rate'(SAR) and require the mobile phone industry to open SAR information to the public by their own decision. From the view of pro-regulation side based on precautionary approach, technology risk managament of mobile phones EMF in Korea is highly limited and formalized one with limited measuring of SAR on head part only and problematic self-regulated opening of information about SAR to the public. As far as the government keeps having priority on protecting interest of mobile phone industry over precautionary regulation of mobile phones EMF, the disagreement between civil organizations and the government will not resolved. The risk of mobile phones EMF to human health have high probability of being underestimated in the rate and damage of risk than objectively estimated ones due to familiarity of mobile phone technology. And this can be the cause of destructive social dispute or devastating disaster. To prevent such disastrous results, technology risk management, which integrating the goals of safety with economic growth in public policy and designing and promoting risk communication, is required.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.53-79
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• 2010

The study was originated from recognition that project participants' satisfaction should be Improved to raise project performance and to make progress of a successful project since the above dissatisfaction was operated as a danger factor of the project. The study selected one large-scale sample project and attempted measuring characteristics of the project, participants' satisfaction and project performance with the whole project participants. The study analyzed correlations between individual level (team members) and group level (development team), and examined what effect a sub project manager under complicated hierarchical organization of the large-scale project, namely PL (project leader)'s leadership style had on each individual project participant's satisfaction and what effect project uncertainty in organization/technology environment had on project participants' satisfaction and project performance. The study verified that development team (group) had an effect on team member (individual)-level project participants' satisfaction by disclosing that there was a significant dispersion among groups within project participants' satisfaction by each individual. It is analyzed that it is necessary to make improvement through approach by each pertinent team to raise individual-level project participants' satisfaction. The study also verified PL's ideal leadership under strict methodology and hierarchical control of the large-scale project. Based on the verification of the hypotheses, the results of the analysis were produced as follows. First, the development team affects the satisfaction level that an individual has when he/she participates in a project. This suggests that the satisfaction with project participation should be improved at the team level. In addition, the project management style and leadership orientation of the manager of a sub project who is mostly affected by the team proved to have a direct influence on the satisfaction with project participation and project performances. Second, both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership of the PL of the development team were verified to have a significant effect on the satisfaction of the team members associated with project participation. In other words, when the team members recognize that the PL of the development team shows both the performance-oriented leadership and the relationship-oriented leadership, their satisfaction with project participation increases accordingly. Third, it was verified that the uncertainty of the organizational environment significantly affects the satisfaction level when the PL of the development team exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership. The higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the relationship-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the performance-oriented leadership style. Fourth, when the PL of the development team exerts the relationship-related and performance-related leadership, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant influence on the satisfaction level. The higher the uncertainty of the technological environment is, the more the satisfaction with project participation decreases whereas the performance-oriented leadership has a more positive effect on the satisfaction than the relationship-oriented leadership style. The result of the research on the uncertainty of the project environment suggests that when the development team leader exerts a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the organizational environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the organizational environment, the more the satisfaction level decreases, and the relationship-oriented leadership style affects the satisfaction level more positively than the performance-oriented leadership style. In addition, when the development team leader displays a relationship-oriented and performance-oriented leadership style, the uncertainty of the technological environment has a significant effect on the satisfaction with project participation; the higher the uncertainty of the technological environment. the more the satisfaction level decreases. The performance-oriented leadership style as well affects the satisfaction level more positively than the relationship-oriented leadership style. Based on the above results, the research provides the following implications when handling multiple concurrent projects. First, the satisfaction with the participation in the multiple concurrent projects needs to be enhanced at the team (group) level. Second. the manager of the project team, particularly the middle managers should have both a performance-oriented and relationship (task and human)-oriented attitude and exert a consolidated leadership in order to improve the satisfaction of team members with project participation and their performances. Third, as the uncertainty factor of the technological and organizational environment among the characteristics factors of the project has room for methodological improvement depending on one's effort even though there are some complications, we need to continuously prevent and control the risks resulting from the uncertainties of the technological and organizational environment of the project in order to enhance the satisfaction of project participation and project performances. Fourth, the performance (task)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in a technological environment while the relationship (human)-oriented leadership is required when there is uncertainty in an organizational environment. This research has the following limitations. First, this research intended to select one large-sized sample project and measure the project characteristics, the satisfaction of all the participants associated with project participation, and their performances. Therefore, it is inappropriate to generalize and apply the result of this result onto other numerous projects. Second, as this case study entailed a survey to measure the characteristics factors and performance of the project, since the result value was based on the perception of project team members, the data may have insufficient objectivity. Third, though this research targeted on all the project participants, some development teams did not provide sufficient data and questionnaires were collected from some specific development teams among the 23 development teams, causing a significant deviation in the response rate among the development teams. Therefore, we need to continuously conduct the follow-up researches making comparisons among the multiple projects, and centering on the characteristics factors of the project and its satisfaction level.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.53-74
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• 2010

The creation and acceptance of new technologies has been speeding up dramatically in modern times. There are also significant uncertainties about the future shape of markets, governance and social values that will have an important impact on organizations and their capacity to meet their objectives. These rapid technological and social change and uncertainties make the upsurge of interest in technology foresight, giving rise to its emergence as a global concept and policy tool. A wide range of future methods are available for technology foresight. Selection of methods will depend upon several factors, most notably available and the time financial resources, and the objectives of the exercise. Although Delphi has been widely used for many years, scenario becomes very popular in recent years. The use of scenarios can take better account of the complexity and unpredictability of the economic, social and political environments. Scenarios tell the stories describing paths to different futures, which help organizations make better decisions today. In this study, the scenario method was employed to draw the images of the future of renewable energy. Renewable energy grows dramatically in recent years. However, there is still considerable uncertainty with regard to the potential of renewable energy due to environment regulation, energy costs, and political and economic developments in the main supplier countries for oil and natural gas. Scenario can help us to identify the risks and opportunities when we develop the renewable energy, and to prepare for them. The scenario method is expected to be more utilized in the national technology foresight.