• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.19 no.1
• /
• pp.35-55
• /
• 2013

Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers, managers, and policy makers' keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company's product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company's product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company's product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affects the company's profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study's results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company's business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy (making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy (making several small investments at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology. It also indicates the mediating effect of product quality on the relationship between information technology and the performance of a company. Finally, it analyzes the effect of information technology investment strategies and information diffusion among consumers on the investment performance of information technology.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.25-52
• /
• 2018

This study performs social network analysis based on consumer sentiment related to a location in Seoul using data reflecting consumers' web search activities and emotional evaluations associated with commerce. The study focuses on large commercial districts in Seoul. In addition, to consider their various aspects, social network indexes were combined with the trading area's public data to verify factors affecting the area's sales. According to R square's change, We can see that the model has a little high R square value even though it includes only the district's public data represented by static data. However, the present study confirmed that the R square of the model combined with the network index derived from the social network analysis was even improved much more. A regression analysis of the trading area's public data showed that the five factors of 'number of market district,' 'residential area per person,' 'satisfaction of residential environment,' 'rate of change of trade,' and 'survival rate over 3 years' among twenty two variables. The study confirmed a significant influence on the sales of the trading area. According to the results, 'residential area per person' has the highest standardized beta value. Therefore, 'residential area per person' has the strongest influence on commercial sales. In addition, 'residential area per person,' 'number of market district,' and 'survival rate over 3 years' were found to have positive effects on the sales of all trading area. Thus, as the number of market districts in the trading area increases, residential area per person increases, and as the survival rate over 3 years of each store in the trading area increases, sales increase. On the other hand, 'satisfaction of residential environment' and 'rate of change of trade' were found to have a negative effect on sales. In the case of 'satisfaction of residential environment,' sales increase when the satisfaction level is low. Therefore, as consumer dissatisfaction with the residential environment increases, sales increase. The 'rate of change of trade' shows that sales increase with the decreasing acceleration of transaction frequency. According to the social network analysis, of the 25 regional trading areas in Seoul, Yangcheon-gu has the highest degree of connection. In other words, it has common sentiments with many other trading areas. On the other hand, Nowon-gu and Jungrang-gu have the lowest degree of connection. In other words, they have relatively distinct sentiments from other trading areas. The social network indexes used in the combination model are 'density of ego network,' 'degree centrality,' 'closeness centrality,' 'betweenness centrality,' and 'eigenvector centrality.' The combined model analysis confirmed that the degree centrality and eigenvector centrality of the social network index have a significant influence on sales and the highest influence in the model. 'Degree centrality' has a negative effect on the sales of the districts. This implies that sales decrease when holding various sentiments of other trading area, which conflicts with general social myths. However, this result can be interpreted to mean that if a trading area has low 'degree centrality,' it delivers unique and special sentiments to consumers. The findings of this study can also be interpreted to mean that sales can be increased if the trading area increases consumer recognition by forming a unique sentiment and city atmosphere that distinguish it from other trading areas. On the other hand, 'eigenvector centrality' has the greatest effect on sales in the combined model. In addition, the results confirmed a positive effect on sales. This finding shows that sales increase when a trading area is connected to others with stronger centrality than when it has common sentiments with others. This study can be used as an empirical basis for establishing and implementing a city and trading area strategy plan considering consumers' desired sentiments. In addition, we expect to provide entrepreneurs and potential entrepreneurs entering the trading area with sentiments possessed by those in the trading area and directions into the trading area considering the district-sentiment structure.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.149-161
• /
• 2014

The export of domestic public services to overseas markets contains many potential obstacles, stemming from different export procedures, the target services, and socio-economic environments. In order to alleviate these problems, the business incubation platform as an open business ecosystem can be a powerful instrument to support the decisions taken by participants and stakeholders. In this paper, we propose an ontology model and its implementation processes for the business incubation platform with an open and pervasive architecture to support public service exports. For the conceptual model of platform ontology, export case studies are used for requirements analysis. The conceptual model shows the basic structure, with vocabulary and its meaning, the relationship between ontologies, and key attributes. For the implementation and test of the ontology model, the logical structure is edited using Prot$\acute{e}$g$\acute{e}$ editor. The core engine of the business incubation platform is the simulator module, where the various contexts of export businesses should be captured, defined, and shared with other modules through ontologies. It is well-known that an ontology, with which concepts and their relationships are represented using a shared vocabulary, is an efficient and effective tool for organizing meta-information to develop structural frameworks in a particular domain. The proposed model consists of five ontologies derived from a requirements survey of major stakeholders and their operational scenarios: service, requirements, environment, enterprise, and county. The service ontology contains several components that can find and categorize public services through a case analysis of the public service export. Key attributes of the service ontology are composed of categories including objective, requirements, activity, and service. The objective category, which has sub-attributes including operational body (organization) and user, acts as a reference to search and classify public services. The requirements category relates to the functional needs at a particular phase of system (service) design or operation. Sub-attributes of requirements are user, application, platform, architecture, and social overhead. The activity category represents business processes during the operation and maintenance phase. The activity category also has sub-attributes including facility, software, and project unit. The service category, with sub-attributes such as target, time, and place, acts as a reference to sort and classify the public services. The requirements ontology is derived from the basic and common components of public services and target countries. The key attributes of the requirements ontology are business, technology, and constraints. Business requirements represent the needs of processes and activities for public service export; technology represents the technological requirements for the operation of public services; and constraints represent the business law, regulations, or cultural characteristics of the target country. The environment ontology is derived from case studies of target countries for public service operation. Key attributes of the environment ontology are user, requirements, and activity. A user includes stakeholders in public services, from citizens to operators and managers; the requirements attribute represents the managerial and physical needs during operation; the activity attribute represents business processes in detail. The enterprise ontology is introduced from a previous study, and its attributes are activity, organization, strategy, marketing, and time. The country ontology is derived from the demographic and geopolitical analysis of the target country, and its key attributes are economy, social infrastructure, law, regulation, customs, population, location, and development strategies. The priority list for target services for a certain country and/or the priority list for target countries for a certain public services are generated by a matching algorithm. These lists are used as input seeds to simulate the consortium partners, and government's policies and programs. In the simulation, the environmental differences between Korea and the target country can be customized through a gap analysis and work-flow optimization process. When the process gap between Korea and the target country is too large for a single corporation to cover, a consortium is considered an alternative choice, and various alternatives are derived from the capability index of enterprises. For financial packages, a mix of various foreign aid funds can be simulated during this stage. It is expected that the proposed ontology model and the business incubation platform can be used by various participants in the public service export market. It could be especially beneficial to small and medium businesses that have relatively fewer resources and experience with public service export. We also expect that the open and pervasive service architecture in a digital business ecosystem will help stakeholders find new opportunities through information sharing and collaboration on business processes.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.2
• /
• pp.149-169
• /
• 2018

Korea is currently accumulating a large amount of data in public institutions based on the public data open policy and the "Government 3.0". Especially, a lot of data is accumulated in the tourism field. However, the academic discussions utilizing the tourism data are still limited. Moreover, the openness of the data of restaurants, hotels, and online tourism information, and how to use SNS Big Data in tourism are still limited. Therefore, utilization through tourism big data analysis is still low. In this paper, we tried to analyze influencing factors on foreign tourists' satisfaction in Korea through numerical data using data mining technique and R programming technique. In this study, we tried to find ways to revitalize the tourism industry by analyzing about 36,000 big data of the "Survey on the actual situation of foreign tourists from 2013 to 2015" surveyed by the Korea Culture & Tourism Research Institute. To do this, we analyzed the factors that have high influence on the 'Satisfaction', 'Revisit intention', and 'Recommendation' variables of foreign tourists. Furthermore, we analyzed the practical influences of the variables that are mentioned above. As a procedure of this study, we first integrated survey data of foreign tourists conducted by Korea Culture & Tourism Research Institute, which is stored in the tourist information system from 2013 to 2015, and eliminate unnecessary variables that are inconsistent with the research purpose among the integrated data. Some variables were modified to improve the accuracy of the analysis. And we analyzed the factors affecting the dependent variables by using data-mining methods: decision tree(C5.0, CART, CHAID, QUEST), artificial neural network, and logistic regression analysis of SPSS IBM Modeler 16.0. The seven variables that have the greatest effect on each dependent variable were derived. As a result of data analysis, it was found that seven major variables influencing 'overall satisfaction' were sightseeing spot attraction, food satisfaction, accommodation satisfaction, traffic satisfaction, guide service satisfaction, number of visiting places, and country. Variables that had a great influence appeared food satisfaction and sightseeing spot attraction. The seven variables that had the greatest influence on 'revisit intention' were the country, travel motivation, activity, food satisfaction, best activity, guide service satisfaction and sightseeing spot attraction. The most influential variables were food satisfaction and travel motivation for Korean style. Lastly, the seven variables that have the greatest influence on the 'recommendation intention' were the country, sightseeing spot attraction, number of visiting places, food satisfaction, activity, tour guide service satisfaction and cost. And then the variables that had the greatest influence were the country, sightseeing spot attraction, and food satisfaction. In addition, in order to grasp the influence of each independent variables more deeply, we used R programming to identify the influence of independent variables. As a result, it was found that the food satisfaction and sightseeing spot attraction were higher than other variables in overall satisfaction and had a greater effect than other influential variables. Revisit intention had a higher ${\beta}$ value in the travel motive as the purpose of Korean Wave than other variables. It will be necessary to have a policy that will lead to a substantial revisit of tourists by enhancing tourist attractions for the purpose of Korean Wave. Lastly, the recommendation had the same result of satisfaction as the sightseeing spot attraction and food satisfaction have higher ${\beta}$ value than other variables. From this analysis, we found that 'food satisfaction' and 'sightseeing spot attraction' variables were the common factors to influence three dependent variables that are mentioned above('Overall satisfaction', 'Revisit intention' and 'Recommendation'), and that those factors affected the satisfaction of travel in Korea significantly. The purpose of this study is to examine how to activate foreign tourists in Korea through big data analysis. It is expected to be used as basic data for analyzing tourism data and establishing effective tourism policy. It is expected to be used as a material to establish an activation plan that can contribute to tourism development in Korea in the future.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.127-146
• /
• 2017

Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.1-32
• /
• 2018

In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.19 no.2
• /
• pp.177-189
• /
• 2013

In Smart Education, the roles of digital textbook is very important as face-to-face media to learners. The standardization of digital textbook will promote the industrialization of digital textbook for contents providers and distributers as well as learner and instructors. In this study, the following three objectives-oriented digital textbooks are looking for ways to standardize. (1) digital textbooks should undertake the role of the media for blended learning which supports on-off classes, should be operating on common EPUB viewer without special dedicated viewer, should utilize the existing framework of the e-learning learning contents and learning management. The reason to consider the EPUB as the standard for digital textbooks is that digital textbooks don't need to specify antoher standard for the form of books, and can take advantage od industrial base with EPUB standards-rich content and distribution structure (2) digital textbooks should provide a low-cost open market service that are currently available as the standard open software (3) To provide appropriate learning feedback information to students, digital textbooks should provide a foundation which accumulates and manages all the learning activity information according to standard infrastructure for educational Big Data processing. In this study, the digital textbook in a smart education environment was referred to open digital textbook. The components of open digital textbooks service framework are (1) digital textbook terminals such as smart pad, smart TVs, smart phones, PC, etc., (2) digital textbooks platform to show and perform digital contents on digital textbook terminals, (3) learning contents repository, which exist on the cloud, maintains accredited learning, (4) App Store providing and distributing secondary learning contents and learning tools by learning contents developing companies, and (5) LMS as a learning support/management tool which on-site class teacher use for creating classroom instruction materials. In addition, locating all of the hardware and software implement a smart education service within the cloud must have take advantage of the cloud computing for efficient management and reducing expense. The open digital textbooks of smart education is consdered as providing e-book style interface of LMS to learners. In open digital textbooks, the representation of text, image, audio, video, equations, etc. is basic function. But painting, writing, problem solving, etc are beyond the capabilities of a simple e-book. The Communication of teacher-to-student, learner-to-learnert, tems-to-team is required by using the open digital textbook. To represent student demographics, portfolio information, and class information, the standard used in e-learning is desirable. To process learner tracking information about the activities of the learner for LMS(Learning Management System), open digital textbook must have the recording function and the commnincating function with LMS. DRM is a function for protecting various copyright. Currently DRMs of e-boook are controlled by the corresponding book viewer. If open digital textbook admitt DRM that is used in a variety of different DRM standards of various e-book viewer, the implementation of redundant features can be avoided. Security/privacy functions are required to protect information about the study or instruction from a third party UDL (Universal Design for Learning) is learning support function for those with disabilities have difficulty in learning courses. The open digital textbook, which is based on E-book standard EPUB 3.0, must (1) record the learning activity log information, and (2) communicate with the server to support the learning activity. While the recording function and the communication function, which is not determined on current standards, is implemented as a JavaScript and is utilized in the current EPUB 3.0 viewer, ths strategy of proposing such recording and communication functions as the next generation of e-book standard, or special standard (EPUB 3.0 for education) is needed. Future research in this study will implement open source program with the proposed open digital textbook standard and present a new educational services including Big Data analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.113-120
• /
• 2013

Nowadays, the medical system towards patients changes into the medical services. As the human rights are improved and the capitalism is enlarged, the rights and needs of patients are gradually increasing. Also, based on this change, several systems in hospitals are revised according to the convenience and needs of patients. Thus, the cases of mobile portable among examinations are getting augmented. Because the number of mobile portable examinations in patient's room, intensive care unit, operating room and recovery room increases, neighboring patients are unnecessarily exposed to radiation so that the examination is legally regulated. Hospitals have to specify that "In case that the examination is taken out of the operating room, emergency room or intensive care units, the portable medical X-ray protective blocks should be set" in accordance with the standards of radiation protective facility in diagnostic radiological system. Some keep this regulation well, but mostly they do not keep. In this study, we shielded around the Collimator where the radiation is detected and then checked the change of dose regarding that of angles in portable tube and collimator before and after shielding. Moreover, we tried to figure out the effects of shielding on dose according to the distance change between patients' beds. As a result, the neighboring areas around the collimator are affected by the shielding. After shielding, the radiation is blocked 20% more than doing nothing. When doing the portable examination, the exposure doses are increased $0^{\circ}C$, $90^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$ in order. At the time when the angle is set, the change of doses around the collimator decline after shielding. In addition, the exposure doses related to the distance of beds are less at 1m than 0.5m. In consideration of the shielding effects, putting the beds as far as possible is the best way to block the radiation, which is close to 100%. Next thing is shielding the collimator and its effect is about 20%, and it is more or less 10% by controlling the angles. When taking the portable examination, it is better to keep the patients and guardians far enough away to reduce the exposure doses. However, in case that the bed is fixed and the patient cannot move, it is suggested to shield around the collimator. Furthermore, $90^{\circ}C$ of collimator and tube is recommended. If it is not possible, the examination should be taken at $0^{\circ}C$ and $45^{\circ}C$ is better to be disallowed. The radiation-related workers should be aware of above results, and apply them to themselves in practice. Also, it is recommended to carry out researches and try hard to figure out the ways of reducing the exposure doses and shielding the radiation effectively.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.147-168
• /
• 2017

There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
• /
• 2015.05a
• /
• pp.545-570
• /
• 2015

Korea is among the ten countries with the largest R&D budget and the highest R&D investment-to-GDP ratio, yet the subject of security and protection of R&D results remains relatively unexplored in the country. Countries have implemented in their legal systems measures to properly protect cutting-edge industrial technologies that would adversely affect national security and economy if leaked to other countries. While Korea has a generally stable legal framework as provided in the Regulation on the National R&D Program Management (the "Regulation") and the Act on Industrial Technology Protection, many difficulties follow in practice when determining details on security management and obligations and setting standards in carrying out national R&D projects. This paper proposes to modify and improve security level classification standards in the Regulation. The Regulation provides a dual security level decision-making system for R&D projects: the security level can be determined either by researcher or by the central agency in charge of the project. Unification of such a dual system can avoid unnecessary confusions. To prevent a leakage, it is crucial that research projects be carried out in compliance with their assigned security levels and standards and results be effectively managed. The paper examines from a practitioner's perspective relevant legal provisions on leakage of confidential R&D projects, infringement, injunction, punishment, attempt and conspiracy, dual liability, duty of report to the National Intelligence Service (the "NIS") of security management process and other security issues arising from national R&D projects, and manual drafting in case of a breach. The paper recommends to train security and technological experts such as industrial security experts to properly amend laws on security level classification standards and relevant technological contents. A quarterly policy development committee must also be set up by the NIS in cooperation with relevant organizations. The committee shall provide a project management manual that provides step-by-step guidance for organizations that carry out national R&D projects as a preventive measure against possible leakage. In the short term, the NIS National Industrial Security Center's duties should be expanded to incorporate national R&D projects' security. In the long term, a security task force must be set up to protect, support and manage the projects whose responsibilities should include research, policy development, PR and training of security-related issues. Through these means, a social consensus must be reached on the need for protecting national R&D projects. The most efficient way to implement these measures is to facilitate security training programs and meetings that provide opportunities for communication among industrial security experts and researchers. Furthermore, the Regulation's security provisions must be examined and improved.