• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.63-70
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• 2013

주택재개발사업에서 수익성 예측은 성공적인 사업의 수행을 위한 중요한 요소이기 때문에 수익성 예측을 소홀히 할 경우 많은 그에 따른 리스크가 커지게 된다. 그러나 현행 주택재개발사업은 사업이 많이 진행된 시점에서 수익성을 분석하기 때문에, 수익성이 없는 것으로 판단될 경우 그에 따른 큰 손실을 감수해야 한다. 이로 인해 현재 사업이 중단되거나 지연됨에 따라 경제적인 손실을 보는 사업장이 늘어나고 있으며, 그에 따른 이해관계자간 갈등이 심화되고 있다. 주택재개발사업 시 이러한 사회적 갈등과 경제적 손실을 줄이기 위해서는 사업추진여부를 결정하기 위한 적절한 수익성 예측 방법의 개발이 필요하며, 더불어 적절한 시기에 적용할 수 있는 프로세스의 제시가 요구된다. 본 연구는 사업 초기단계인 기획단계에서 수익성을 예측할 수 있는 방법을 제시하여, 합리적이고 타당한 의사결정의 지원을 위한 것으로 본 연구모델의 적용 시 사업 초기단계에 사업 수행 여부의 결정이 가능하도록 하여, 부적절한 사업의 무리한 진행으로 인한 경제적인 손실과 그에 따른 이해관계자간의 갈등을 줄일 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.851-862
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• 2006

Satellites have been valuable tool for global/regional scale atmospheric environment monitoring as well as emission source detection. In this study, we present the results of application of satellite remote sensing data for air quality forecast in Seoul metropolitan area. AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness) data from TERRA/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectre-radiometer) satellite were compared to ground based $PM_{10}$ mass concentrations, and used to estimate the possibility of the aerosol forecasting in Seoul metropolitan area. Although correlation coefficient (${\sim}0.37$) between MODIS AOT products and surface $PM_{10}$ concentration data was relatively low, there was good correlation between MODIS AOT and surface PM concentration under certain atmospheric conditions, which supports the feasibility of using the high-resolution MODIS AOT for air quality forecasting. The MODIS AOT data with trajectory forecasts also can provide information on aerosol concentration trend. The success rate of the 24 hour aerosol concentration trend forecast result was about 75% in this study. Finally, application of satellite remote sensing data with ground-based air quality observations could provide promising results for air quality monitoring and more exact trend forecast methodology by high resolution satellite data and verification with long term measurement dataset.

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.123.1-123.1
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• 2012

We have compared near-real time Kp forecast models based on neural network (NN) and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms. We consider four models as follows: (1) a NN model using ACE solar wind data; (2) a SVM model using ACE solar wind data; (3) a NN model using ACE solar wind data and preliminary kp values from US ground-based magnetometers; (4) a SVM model using the same input data as model 3. For the comparison of these models, we estimate correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Kp and the predicted Kp. As a result, we found that the model 3 is better than the other models. The values of correlation coefficients and RMS error of the model 3 are 0.93 and 0.48, respectively. For the forecast evaluation of models for geomagnetic storms ($Kp{\geq}6$), we present contingency tables and estimate statistical parameters such as probability of detection yes (PODy), false alarm ratio (FAR), bias, and critical success index (CSI). From a comparison of these statistical parameters, we found that the SVM models (model 2 and model 4) are better than the NN models (model 1 and model 3). The values of PODy and CSI of the model 4 are the highest among these models (PODy: 0.57 and CSI: 0.48). From these results, we suggest that the NN models are better than the SVM models for predicting Kp and the SVM models are better than the NN models for forecasting geomagnetic storms.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제11권7호
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• pp.2386-2395
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• 2010

글로벌 경쟁환경에서 창업정신은 주요한 산업의 발전요인으로 작용한다. 그러나 창업환경에 대한 활동을 정기적으로 감독하여 창업동향을 전망할 수 있는 지표가 현재 우리나라에는 없다. 본 연구에서는 창업에 영향을 미치는 다양한 변수들을 고려하여 이를 기반으로 창업활동의 수준과 환경에 대한 다양한 분석을 할 수 있는 창업동향지수를 개발하고자 하였다. 탐색적 연구를 통해서 제안하는 창업동향지수는 크게 창업경기지수와 창업환경지수, 그리고 창업 준비지수로 구성되어 있다. 창업경기지수는 창업초기기업과 예비창업자를 대상으로 체감 및 예측 창업 상황에 대해서 기존의 연구 및 전문가들과의 논의를 통해 연구된 항목들을 조사하도록 제안한다. 창업환경지수는 기존 창업기업 또는 법인과 예비 창업자를 대상으로 창업 환경에 대한 다양한 요인들로부터 그 인식 및 인지를 조사하도록 하며, 마지막으로 창업준비지수는 예비창업자를 대상으로 창업자 역량, 창업계획 및 의도 그리고 창업 준비에 대한 인식을 조사하도록 구성할 것을 제안하였다. 연구에서 제안하는 지수를 활용한 실증조사 결과는 산업전반에 걸친 다양한 경제심리지표들과 함께 산업전반의 동향과 전망을 예측하는데 중요한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.439-448
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• 2019

아파트 프로젝트는 사업성패에 영향을 미치는 요인은 매우 다양하다. 그러나 분양단가가 결정되고, 분양이 시작된 이후에는 사업에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 요인은 분양 후 1개월간의 초기분양률이다. 일반적으로 사업주체는 경제상황, 주택시장의 동향, 사업지 인근의 주택가격 등 다양한 자료에 의해 초기분양률을 예측한다. 그러나 이러한 요인들을 초기분양률과 연계하여 정량적으로 계산하는 것은 매우 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구는 실제 수행된 아파트 프로젝트의 분양결과 자료를 이용하여 초기분양률 예측 회귀모델을 제안하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 연구를 위해 기존 분양실적자료 수집, 영향요인들의 상관관계 분석, 초기분양률 예측 회귀모델 작성을 진행한다. 본 연구의 결과는 아파트 프로젝트의 사업성 분석 시 초기 분양률 예측을 위한 기초자료로 활용되며, 사업 리스크 모델 개발의 핵심 자료로 활용된다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.823-830
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• 2022

The risk of project execution increases due to the enlargement and complexity of Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) plant projects. In the fourth industrial revolution era, there is an increasing need to utilize a large amount of data generated during project execution. The design is a key element for the success of the EPC plant project. Although the design cost is about 5% of the total EPC project cost, it is a critical process that affects the entire subsequent process, such as construction, installation, and operation & maintenance (O&M). This study aims to develop a system using machine-learning (ML) techniques to predict risks and support decision-making based on big data generated in an EPC project's design and construction stages. As a result, three main modules were developed: (M1) the design cost estimation module, (M2) the design error check module, and (M3) the change order forecasting module. M1 estimated design cost based on project data such as contract amount, construction period, total design cost, and man-hour (M/H). M2 and M3 are applications for predicting the severity of schedule delay and cost over-run due to design errors and change orders through unstructured text data extracted from engineering documents. A validation test was performed through a case study to verify the model applied to each module. It is expected to improve the risk response capability of EPC contractors in the design and construction stage through this study.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제11권12호
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• pp.25-37
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• 2013

Purpose - The structure of retailing has changed as retailers develop markets in response to business environment changes. This study aims to analyze the general situation of retailers in order to predict future global strategy using case studies of overseas expansion strategy and the Metro Group's global strategy. Research design, data, and methodology - The backgrounds to the new retail business model and retailer classification are analyzed as theoretical data. In addition, the key success point of the Metro Group's "cash and carry" strategy is analyzed as is the Metro Group's global CFAR (collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment) strategy. Finally, the plan for cooperation and precise forecasting under the Metro Group's supply chain management are analyzed from the promotion environment viewpoint. Related materials analyzed included the 2012 annual report, the Metro Group's web page, and a video interview with the executive in charge of global strategy and the new market development department. Some data were revised to avoid disrupting essential aspects of the case studies. Results - The important finding was that the Metro Group could be a world-class retail company with its successful global expansion strategy. The Metro Group's global strategy's primary goal is to have a leading business position in Eastern and Western Europe. The "cash and carry" strategy is highest priority in its overseas expansion strategy. Moreover, the Metro Group has standardized product planning capacity, which could be applied in various countries with different structural and cultural backgrounds. This is the main reason that the Metro Group could rapidly become successful in the Eastern Europe and Asian markets through its structural overseas expansion strategies. In addition, the Metro Group emphasizes the importance of supply chain management. Conclusions - First, retailers should create additional value through utilizing the domestic market, market power, and economies of scale to launch a global strategy to maximize benefits from diversification. Second, the political, economic, and cultural background of the target country needs to be understood to successfully implement the overseas expansion strategy. Third, the main factor of successful cooperation with a local partner is how quickly the company gains total understanding of the business resources and core competence of its partner. All organizations should focus on the achievement of goals in order to successfully operate the partnership. Fourth, retailers should improve their business, financial and organizational structure. Moreover, the work processes and company culture should also be improved to respond strongly in the competitive global market. Fifth, the essential point of a successful retail business is the control capacity of its branding and format. The retailer could avoid forecasting errors through supply chain management by perfectly distributing the actual amount of its inventory. In addition, the risks along the supply chain are effectively shared between the supply chain partners. Finally, the central tendency of the market is to gain in strength with this taking place across all parts of the business.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제31권5B호
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• pp.405-414
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 유역에서 관측되는 강우량과 유출량의 시계열 자료를 바탕으로 최근 시계열 예측 및 시스템 제어 분야에서 성공적으로 적용되고 있는 적응형 네트워크 기반 퍼지추론 시스템(ANFIS)을 갑천 유역에 적용하여 시유출량을 모델링하였다. 입력구조, 소속함수 종류와 개수 등을 다양하게 변화시켜 ANFIS 모형을 학습하고, 평균제곱근오차(RMSE), 평균첨두유량오차(PE) 및 평균첨두시간오차(TE)를 이용하여 ANFIS의 유출해석에 대한 적용성을 평가하였다. 현재시간의 시유출량 Q(t)에 대한 ANFIS의 적용성은 우수한 것으로 평가되었으며, ANFIS 모형은 관측유출량을 적절히 모의하였다. 입력구조가 다른 입력모형을 구성하여 최대 8시간까지 ANFIS의 유출예측 적용성을 평가하였다. 예측시간 증가에 따라서 ANFIS의 유출예측 정확도는 감소하여 예측시간 4시간 이상의 시유출량에 대한 ANFIS의 유출예측 적용성은 제한적이었다. ANFIS는 입력과 출력 자료들만 이용하므로 물리기반 모형에 비교하여 모형구축이 비교적 손쉽기 때문에 홍수 유출모델링에 ANFIS을 유용하게 적용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국IT서비스학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.97-114
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• 2016

One of the key success factors for the intelligent IT service which is characterized by personalization and automation, is to obtain relevant data from either sensors or data storage for reasoning, analyzing and forecasting. The availability of the open data sources such as public portal sites remarkably increases the efficiency and quality of the intelligent IT service. However, with the condition that not all data in the existing public or private sites are opened or have various types of openness, it prohibits the value of utilization. For these reasons, it is highly required to evaluate the extent of openness of data storage. However, there are only a few studies which explore the factors which affect the degree of data openness with respect to intelligent IT services. Hence, this study aims to propose an evaluation model including the indices to evaluate a process of opening data for the intelligent IT service from a viewpoint of data utilization process. The indices are applied to evaluate the actual multinational websites, which provide public data for verification. We also discuss the implications of the evaluation according to the results.

• 한국관광식음료학회지:관광식음료경영연구
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• 제9권
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• pp.273-302
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• 1998

INTERNATIONAL MONITORY FUNDS wave swept the Economic structural insolvency lies one upon another with low growth, low trust, low prices, low interest and low employment as[2 down 3 up] phenomenons have been distinguished and low enterprise a control of structures due to forecasting 200 million unemployment, including 600 million unemployed the head of a family population have a difficulty in their life. Only way to give them hope is through the commencement of an enterprises to have 2nd career development. But end of 1995, 467,00 dining out companies have been established and recently business are in depression. There are many business conditions of change of business or reduce operations, if unemployment populations of 5%, 100,000 peoples doing the commencement of an enterprises, enormous number of dining out companies will be increased and the competition will be fierce, especially those who have short knowledge and experience doing the commencement of an enterprises have high failure than success which will give a problems to society. Our study is to make the commencement of an enterprise to reducing the faiure and to be successful for main point to successful commencement of an enterprise, the established can self capability and mental condition, the main important factor is types of industry selection, successful and those established who takes this conditions will very carefully inspect various matters by scientifically and rationally mind industrys propulsion graphs and open official fixture graphs will framing detail factors. One by inspect the reduction of failure, and successful commencement of an enterproses mind industry have been studied.