• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.488-493
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• 2013

Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.1329-1341
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• 2006

When X and Y have independent gamma distributions, we consider the testing problem for two gamma means. We propose a solution based on a Bayesian model selection procedure to this problem in which no subjective input is considered. The reference prior is derived. Using the derived reference prior, we compute the fractional Bayes factor and the intrinsic Bayes factors. The posterior probability of each model is used as a model selection tool. Simulation study and a real data example are provided.

• 한국식품영양학회지
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.952-961
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• 2016

The objective of this study is to examine the effects of consumer beliefs regarding three food certifications on their behavioral intention and the behavioral intention biases to purchase (purchasing intention biases) certified agricultural products as predicted by a subjective probability model. The food certifications used for this study are 'Organic food', 'Traceability system of food products,' and 'Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP)'. Tofu (bean curd) was selected as being representative of agricultural food products, for the purposes of this study. In 2016, we surveyed 243 consumers regarding the strength of their belief regarding their prior beliefs relative to each certification, as well as the strength of their intention to purchase certified tofu based on their belief strengths for this study. The study resulted in the following findings: Firstly, consumers hold more than two different prior beliefs for each of the three certifications included in this study. Consumers' prior beliefs regarding these certifications have an impact on their consideration as to whether they plan to buy those certified agricultural products. Secondly, consumers try to persuade themselves to ensure that their particular belief about the product's certification could lead to a purchasing decision regarding that agricultural product.

• 한국노년학
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.811-835
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• 2018

노년기의 사회적 관계와 인지기능은 상호 밀접한 관계가 존재한다. 사회적 관계(social relation)는 구조적 특성과 이에 대한 인지적 정서적 평가를 반영하는 질적 특성으로 구분되며, 최근 노년기의 사회적 관계와 관련하여 사회적 고립(social isolation) 개념이 부각되고 있다. 사회적 고립은 사회연결망, 가구형태, 사회참여 등 객관적 차원과 지각된 사회적 지지에 대한 결핍과 외로움 등 주관적 차원으로 구분되는 다차원적인 이론적 구조를 가진다. 노년기 대인관계갈등 역시 인지기능과 밀접한 관계가 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 사회적 관계의 구조적 특성을 나타내는 객관적 사회적 고립과, 질적 특성을 나타내는 주관적 사회적 고립, 대인관계갈등이 노년기 연령집단별 인지기능에 미치는 주효과와 상호작용효과를 검증하였다. 분석자료는 KSHAP 1차조사부터 3차조사까지 총 1,740명의 패널자료를 활용하여, 무선효과 패널로짓모형을 적용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 노년기 연령증가에 따라 인지기능 저하는 급격하게 증가하는 경향성이 나타났다. 객관적 주관적 사회적 고립은 모두 80세를 변곡점으로 U자형의 분포가 나타났다. 아울러 배우자, 자녀 친척, 이웃 친구 노년기 연령증가에 따라 대체적으로 감소하는 분포가 나타났다. 둘째, 인지기능저하에 대한 주효과는 객관적 주관적 사회적 고립과 정적으로 유의미하게 나타난 반면, 대인관계갈등 유형은 유의미하게 나타나지 않았다. 셋째, 노년기 인지기능저하에 영향을 미치는 이원상호작용효과 분석결과, 주관적 사회적 고립과 인지기능저하와의 관계는 배우자와의 갈등수준별로 유의미하게 다른 것으로 나타났다. 또한 주관적 사회적 고립을 많이 느낄수록 연소노인(65~74세)에 비해 초고령노인(85세 이상)의 경우 인지기능저하가 급격하게 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과에 기초하여 노년기 연령집단별 인지기능 저하를 감소시키기 위한 정책적 실천적 시사점을 제시하였으며, 연구의 한계점과 추후연구를 위한 제언에 대해 논의하였다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.71-92
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• 2016

This study examines the effects of consumer beliefs for food certifications on the behavioral intentions and the behavioral intention biases to purchase the certified seafoods by a subjective probability model which is on the basis of the mathematical probability model and the covariance model. The food certifications used on this study are 'Organic foods', 'Traceability system of food products' and. 'HACCP'. The representative foods of fishery products on this study is seasoned laver. The current study showed the following results. First, consumers have more than two different beliefs each for all certifications which are the subjects of this study. The beliefs of the certifications have an impact on the consumers when they consider to buy the certified seafood products. Second, consumers try to persuade by themselves to ensure that their particular belief about the certification could lead to a purchase the seafood products. Consumer beliefs of the "environmentally friendly production" on the organic foods certification is an important factor as much as the "guarantee of food safety" belief making a positive purchasing behavior intentions(PBI) bias for the organic seafood products. Consumers also have a positive PBI bias for certified seafood products in all certifications as long as a certification is considered to "guarantee the transparency of the food distribution process" as its belief. 'Traceability system' was the only one which didn't generate a positive PBI bias from the belief of "guarantee of food safety" out of three certifications.

• 산업공학
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.209-217
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• 2002

Quality of Service(QoS) in the telecommunications can be evaluated by analyzing the opinion data which result from the surveyed opinions of respondents and quantify subjective satisfaction on the QoS from the customers' viewpoints. For analyzing the opinion data, MOS(mean opinion score) method and Cumulative Probability Curve method are often used. The methods are based on the scoring method, and therefore, have the intrinsic deficiency due to the assignment of arbitrary scores. In this paper, we propose an analysis method of the opinion data using logit models which can be used to analyze the ordinal categorical data without assigning arbitrary scores to customers' opinion, and develop an analysis procedure considering the usage of procedures provided by SAS(Statistical Analysis System) statistical package. By the proposed method, we can estimate the relationship between customer satisfaction and network performance parameters, and provide guidelines for network planning. In addition, the proposed method is compared with Cumulative Probability Curve method with respect to prediction errors.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.89-98
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• 2007

In this paper the economic value of weather forecasts is valuated for profit-oriented enterprise decision-making situations. Value is estimated in terms of monetary profits (or benefits) resulted from the forecast user's decision under the specific payoff structure, which is represented by a profit/loss ratio model combined with a decision function and a value score (VS). The forecast user determines a business-related decision based on the probabilistic forecast, the user's subjective reliability of the forecasts, and the payoff structure specific to the user's business environment. The VS curve for a meteorological forecast is specified by a function of the various profit/loss ratios, providing the scaled economic value relative to the value of a perfect forecast. The proposed valuation method based on the profit/loss ratio model and the VS is adapted for hypothetical sets of forecasts and verified for site-specific probability of precipitation forecast of 12 hour and 24 hour-lead time, which is generated from Korea meteorological administration (KMA). The application results show that forecast information with shorter lead time can provide the decision-makers with great benefits and there are ranges of profit/loss ratios in which high subjective reliability of the given forecast is preferred.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.81-93
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• 2018

This study developed and tested the impact of hallyu 4.0, social media, and consumer ethnocentrism on the decision to purchase Korean products of Generation C in Vietnam. Both qualitative and quantitative methodologies were utilized in this study. Qualitative research was first carried out with in-depth interview, conducted to derive measurement items for the interested constructs. Quantitative research used cross-sectional field design by pilot study and official study. The model was tested and developed using data collected by questionnaires, from a sample of 575 respondents, by both electronic and paper surveys with non-probability and convenience sampling techniques. SPSS 20 and AMOS 20 software were employed to analyze the data. The results of structural equation modeling showed that hallyu 4.0, social media, and consumer ethnocentrism influenced the intermediates variables: subject norms, trust, attitude and behavioral intention and influenced purchase decision. The hallyu 4.0, social media, and consumer ethnocentrism are independent variables. They impact purchase decision through mediating variables such as trust, subjective norms, attitude and behavioral intention. Social media influences not only to trust but also to subjective norms. Subjective norms influence on purchase decision. This study also discovers an interesting fact that trust and attitude variables have an impact on behavioral intention and purchase decision.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.65-86
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• 2000

The estimates from an EM when it is applied to a large causal model of 10 or more categorical variables are often subject to the initial values for the estimates. This phenomenon becomes more serious as the model structure becomes more serious as the model structure becomes more complicated involving more variables. In this regard Wu(1983) recommends among others that EMs are implemented several times with different sets of initial values to obtain more appropriate estimates. in this paper a new approach for initial values is proposed. The main idea is that we use initials that are calibrated to data. A simulation result strongly indicates that the calibrated initials give rise to the estimates that are far closer to the true values than the initials that are not calibrated.

• 디자인학연구
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.45-53
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• 2000

일반적으로 모든 조형예술에 있어서 어떤 조형예술가든지 그의 작품에서 어떤 요소의 색채에 대해서 보다 높은 확률을 줄기 위해서 색상이나 채도의 대비를 주어서 상대적인 확률의 안배를 주관적으로 설정한 후에 기계적으로 안배한다고 볼 수 있다. 또한 이제까지의 모든 디자인영역에 있어서 조형구조에 대한 분석 역시 그 디자인조형물에 대한 해석자의 감성과 직관, 경험을 바탕으로 한 주관적이고 정성적인 방법에 의해서 행해지고 있다고 볼 수 있는데, 색체구조에 대한 분석 역시 마찬가지였다고 할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연국에서는 형태와 색채지각 그리고 정보일론(information/communication theory)을 기본 배경으로 한 정량적인 정보분석을 위해서 연구 개발된 '색채구조 분석모형'을 모던디자인의 분석제품으로 선정된 차쉬니크의 도자접시와 포스트모던 디자인의 멜처트의 벽화를 선정하고, 적용해서 색채구조에 대한 객관적인 정량분석을 하여서 모던과 포스트모던 다자인에 대한 양식적인 특성을 비교 및 제시하고, 색채구조분석의 또 다른 방법인 정량분석모형을 중심으로 해서 그 분석절차와 방법을 시도했다는데 본 연구의 의의가 있다 하겠다.