• 논리연구
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.53-81
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• 2010

이 논문은 확률의 해석에 대한 고전적 해석인 주관적 해석과 객관적 해석의 문제점을 진단함으로써 이를 극복할 수 있는 새로운 확률해석의 가능성을 제공한다. 직관적으로는 그럴듯한 객관적 확률해석은 확률개념에 의존하지 않는 정의를 제공할 수 없다는 점에서 그 정당성을 의심받아 왔다. 주관적 확률해석의 경우에는 주어진 사건군에 대한 무지에서 우리가 어떻게 확률이라는 일정한 정보를 뽑아낼 수 있는지에 대한 문제에 대해 명확한 답을 제공하지 못하고 있는 상황이다. 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위해 확률을 주어진 사건군의 특정 측면에 대한 일반화를 제공하는 이론적인 구조로 이해할 것을 제안한다.

• 한국항해학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.1-9
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• 1994

Assessment of the safety of ship's transit in the narrow channel consist of the maneuvering safety determined by the chance of running aground, the maneuvering difficulty determined by ship's workload and master's subjective evaluation. To examine the relation between master's subjective evaluation and maneuvering safety, this utilizes a real-time and full-mission shiphandling simulator in the Korea Marine Training & Research Institutes(KMTRI). The vessel chosen was 60,000-ton, Panamax-type ship. The findings regarding master's subjective evaluation were as follows: -Relation between master's subjective evaluation and common logarithms of stranding probability is linear. -Stranding probability with more than 0.001 is master's subjective evaluation with more than 5.

• 가정과삶의질연구
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.195-205
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• 2010

households using the 2007 Korean Retirement and Income Study. Elderly households were classified into three groups based on the comparisons among the costs of living and then the factors influencing the probability of belonging to each group were investigated using multiple logistic regression models. The major findings are as follows. Firstly, the subjective adequate cost of living was the highest and the subjective minimum cost of living was the lowest. The actual cost of living was in between. Secondly, 42.6% of elderly households belonged to Group1(whose actual cost of living was less than the subjective minimum cost of living), 30.0% was classified into Group2(whose actual cost of living was greater than the subjective minimum cost of living but less than the subjective adequate cost of living) and the actual cost of living of the remaining 27.4% was greater than the subjective adequate cost of living(Group3). Thirdly, income was the strongest factor influencing the probability of belonging to each group, but the influencing factors were different for the logistic models for Group1 and Group3 based on Group2.

• 한국노년학
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.811-835
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• 2018

노년기의 사회적 관계와 인지기능은 상호 밀접한 관계가 존재한다. 사회적 관계(social relation)는 구조적 특성과 이에 대한 인지적 정서적 평가를 반영하는 질적 특성으로 구분되며, 최근 노년기의 사회적 관계와 관련하여 사회적 고립(social isolation) 개념이 부각되고 있다. 사회적 고립은 사회연결망, 가구형태, 사회참여 등 객관적 차원과 지각된 사회적 지지에 대한 결핍과 외로움 등 주관적 차원으로 구분되는 다차원적인 이론적 구조를 가진다. 노년기 대인관계갈등 역시 인지기능과 밀접한 관계가 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 사회적 관계의 구조적 특성을 나타내는 객관적 사회적 고립과, 질적 특성을 나타내는 주관적 사회적 고립, 대인관계갈등이 노년기 연령집단별 인지기능에 미치는 주효과와 상호작용효과를 검증하였다. 분석자료는 KSHAP 1차조사부터 3차조사까지 총 1,740명의 패널자료를 활용하여, 무선효과 패널로짓모형을 적용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 노년기 연령증가에 따라 인지기능 저하는 급격하게 증가하는 경향성이 나타났다. 객관적 주관적 사회적 고립은 모두 80세를 변곡점으로 U자형의 분포가 나타났다. 아울러 배우자, 자녀 친척, 이웃 친구 노년기 연령증가에 따라 대체적으로 감소하는 분포가 나타났다. 둘째, 인지기능저하에 대한 주효과는 객관적 주관적 사회적 고립과 정적으로 유의미하게 나타난 반면, 대인관계갈등 유형은 유의미하게 나타나지 않았다. 셋째, 노년기 인지기능저하에 영향을 미치는 이원상호작용효과 분석결과, 주관적 사회적 고립과 인지기능저하와의 관계는 배우자와의 갈등수준별로 유의미하게 다른 것으로 나타났다. 또한 주관적 사회적 고립을 많이 느낄수록 연소노인(65~74세)에 비해 초고령노인(85세 이상)의 경우 인지기능저하가 급격하게 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과에 기초하여 노년기 연령집단별 인지기능 저하를 감소시키기 위한 정책적 실천적 시사점을 제시하였으며, 연구의 한계점과 추후연구를 위한 제언에 대해 논의하였다.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 1996년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.532-539
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• 1996

Existing assessment methodologies present a considerable problem because of fuzzy situation of deterioration mechanism of concrete bridges; namely, qualitative, subjective or inconsistent. This paper discusses current assessment methods in aspect of uncertainty. The expert system, COBDA, is developed for consistent and fast assessment of deteriorantion of concrete bridges. Briefly introduced in this paper are the structure of expert system and several methodologies for decision making of deterioration situation and providing repair option. COBDA is configured by PROLOG for logic approach and expert system shell based on Bayesian subjective probability. The methodologies are illustrated and discussed by comparison of condition assessment results in a case study.

• 논리연구
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.461-484
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• 2014

본 논문은 확률의 객관적 해석과 주관적 해석이 가지는 문제점을 진단함으로써 이들을 극복할 수 있는 구성주의 확률해석을 제안한다. 이 확률해석에 의하면 확률의 수학적 구조는 경험적 자료들 사이에 연관성을 부여하는 구성적 이론적 가설을 제공하는 것으로 이해할 수 있다. 구성주의 확률해석을 위한 사례로 우주의 시간적 비대칭성에서의 확률구조를 분석했다. 본 사례의 확률을 구성적으로 해석할 경우 객관적 그리고 주관적으로 확률을 해석하는 문제들을 제거할 수 있다. 또한 구성적 확률해석은 고전적 확률해석이 그 문제점에도 불구하고 왜 표면적으로 신빙성 있는지에 대한 설명도 제공한다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.488-493
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• 2013

Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제18권8호
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• pp.31-37
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• 2019

The inter-development of FMECA is very important to assess the effect of potential failures during system operation on mission, safety and performance. Among these, criticality analysis is a core task that identifies items with high risk and selects the analyzed objects as the key management targets and reflects their effects to the design optimization. In this paper, we analyze the theory related to criticality analysis following US military standard, and propose a method to quantify the failure effect probability for objective criticality analysis. The criticality analysis according to the US military standard depends on the subjective judgment of the failure probability. The methodology for quantifying the failure effect probability is presented by using the reliability theory and the Bayes theorem. The failure rate is calculated by applying the method to quantify failure effect probability.

• 한국수학사학회지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.99-112
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• 2000

In this paper we discuss the teaching methods about statistical inferences. Bayesian methods have the attractive feature that statistical conclusions can be stated using the language of subjective probability. Simple methods of teaching Bayes' rule described, and these methods are illustrated for inference and prediction problems for one proportions. Also, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of traditional and Bayesian approachs in teaching inference.

• 전자공학회논문지S
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• 제34S권2호
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• pp.79-93
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• 1997

This paper presents a linear shift-invariant system euqivalent to morphological dilation for a memoryless uniform source in the sense of the power spectral density function, and comares it with dialtion. This equivalent LSI system is found through spectral decomposition and, for dilation and with windwo size L, it is shown to be a finite impulse response filter composed of L-1 delays, L multipliers and three adders. Th ecoefficients of the equivalent systems are tabulated. The comparisons of dilation and its equivalent LSI system show that probability density functions of the output sequences of the two systems are quite different. In particular, the probability density functon from dilation of an independent and identically distributed uniform source over the unit interval (0, 1) shows heavy probability in around 1, while that from the equivalent LSI system shows probability concentration around themean vlaue and symmetricity about it. This difference is due to the fact that dilation is a non-linear process while the equivalent system is linear and shift-ivariant. In the case that dikation is fabored over LSI filters in subjective perforance tests, one of the factors can be traced to this difference in the probability distribution.