• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.53-81
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• 2010

This essay attempts to suggest a third way to interpret probabilities based on diagnoses of weaknesses and strengths of the objective and the subjective interpretations. While the objective interpretations capture important intuitions in employing probability, it can provide the definitions of probability only in a circular way. Although the subjective interpretations seem to avoid this problem, it also fails to understand how one can extract certain information from the ignorance of a given system. It will be suggested that these problems can be bypassed if we consider probabilities as theoretical structure, which provide significant generalizations about the world.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.1-9
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• 1994

Assessment of the safety of ship's transit in the narrow channel consist of the maneuvering safety determined by the chance of running aground, the maneuvering difficulty determined by ship's workload and master's subjective evaluation. To examine the relation between master's subjective evaluation and maneuvering safety, this utilizes a real-time and full-mission shiphandling simulator in the Korea Marine Training & Research Institutes(KMTRI). The vessel chosen was 60,000-ton, Panamax-type ship. The findings regarding master's subjective evaluation were as follows: -Relation between master's subjective evaluation and common logarithms of stranding probability is linear. -Stranding probability with more than 0.001 is master's subjective evaluation with more than 5.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.195-205
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• 2010

households using the 2007 Korean Retirement and Income Study. Elderly households were classified into three groups based on the comparisons among the costs of living and then the factors influencing the probability of belonging to each group were investigated using multiple logistic regression models. The major findings are as follows. Firstly, the subjective adequate cost of living was the highest and the subjective minimum cost of living was the lowest. The actual cost of living was in between. Secondly, 42.6% of elderly households belonged to Group1(whose actual cost of living was less than the subjective minimum cost of living), 30.0% was classified into Group2(whose actual cost of living was greater than the subjective minimum cost of living but less than the subjective adequate cost of living) and the actual cost of living of the remaining 27.4% was greater than the subjective adequate cost of living(Group3). Thirdly, income was the strongest factor influencing the probability of belonging to each group, but the influencing factors were different for the logistic models for Group1 and Group3 based on Group2.

• 한국노년학
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.811-835
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• 2018

Social relations and cognitive function in old age are closely related to each other, and social relation is classified into structural characteristics and qualitative characteristics reflecting cognitive and emotional evaluation. The concept of social isolation is the focus of attention in relation to the social relations of old age. Social isolation has a multidimensional theoretical structure that is divided into objective dimension such as social network, type of furniture, social participation, and subjective dimension such as lack of perceived social support and loneliness. There is also a close relationship between cognitive function and interpersonal conflict in old age. In this study, we examined the effect of subjective social isolation, which shows the structural characteristics of social relations, and subjective social isolation and interpersonal conflict on the dementia occurrence by age group in the elderly. The data were analyzed by applying a random effect panel logit model using 1,740 panel data from the first year to the third year of KSHAP. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, the cognitive impairment increased sharply with age. Objective and subjective social isolation were both U-shaped distribution with an inflection point of 80 years old. Second, the main effect on the probability of cognitive impairment was statistically significant with objective and subjective social isolation, but the type of interpersonal conflict did not appear to be significant. Third, the results of two-way interaction effect analysis on the probability of cognitive impairment are as follows. The relationship between subjective social isolation and the probability of occurrence of cognitive impairment was significantly different according to the level of conflict with spouse. In addition, the higher the subjective social isolation, the higher the probability of cognitive impairment in the elderly(over 85) than in the young-old(65~74). In addition, as the level of conflict with spouses increases, the probability of cognitive impairment of the oldest-old(aged 85 or older) is drastically lower than that of the young-old(aged 65~74). Based on the results of this study, policy and practical implications for reducing the cognitive impairment of the elderly age group were suggested, and limitations of the study and suggestions for future research were discussed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.532-539
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• 1996

Existing assessment methodologies present a considerable problem because of fuzzy situation of deterioration mechanism of concrete bridges; namely, qualitative, subjective or inconsistent. This paper discusses current assessment methods in aspect of uncertainty. The expert system, COBDA, is developed for consistent and fast assessment of deteriorantion of concrete bridges. Briefly introduced in this paper are the structure of expert system and several methodologies for decision making of deterioration situation and providing repair option. COBDA is configured by PROLOG for logic approach and expert system shell based on Bayesian subjective probability. The methodologies are illustrated and discussed by comparison of condition assessment results in a case study.

• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.461-484
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• 2014

This essay suggests a constructive interpretation of probabilities by diagnosing problems of the objective and the epistemic interpretations of probability. According to this interpretation, attributions of the mathematical structure of probability to a given system can be understood as positing constructive theoretical hypotheses showing the relationship among empirical data. The constructive interpretation is applied to comprehend probability claims in the explanation of temporal asymmetrical behaviour of our universe. A new approach interpreting probabilities as constructive theoretical terms enables us to circumvent shortcomings of both objective and subjective interpretation of probability, and appreciate why these interpretations nevertheless appear to be convincing in our case.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.488-493
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• 2013

Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.18 no.8
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• pp.31-37
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• 2019

The inter-development of FMECA is very important to assess the effect of potential failures during system operation on mission, safety and performance. Among these, criticality analysis is a core task that identifies items with high risk and selects the analyzed objects as the key management targets and reflects their effects to the design optimization. In this paper, we analyze the theory related to criticality analysis following US military standard, and propose a method to quantify the failure effect probability for objective criticality analysis. The criticality analysis according to the US military standard depends on the subjective judgment of the failure probability. The methodology for quantifying the failure effect probability is presented by using the reliability theory and the Bayes theorem. The failure rate is calculated by applying the method to quantify failure effect probability.

• Journal for History of Mathematics
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.99-112
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• 2000

In this paper we discuss the teaching methods about statistical inferences. Bayesian methods have the attractive feature that statistical conclusions can be stated using the language of subjective probability. Simple methods of teaching Bayes' rule described, and these methods are illustrated for inference and prediction problems for one proportions. Also, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of traditional and Bayesian approachs in teaching inference.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics S
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• v.34S no.2
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• pp.79-93
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• 1997

This paper presents a linear shift-invariant system euqivalent to morphological dilation for a memoryless uniform source in the sense of the power spectral density function, and comares it with dialtion. This equivalent LSI system is found through spectral decomposition and, for dilation and with windwo size L, it is shown to be a finite impulse response filter composed of L-1 delays, L multipliers and three adders. Th ecoefficients of the equivalent systems are tabulated. The comparisons of dilation and its equivalent LSI system show that probability density functions of the output sequences of the two systems are quite different. In particular, the probability density functon from dilation of an independent and identically distributed uniform source over the unit interval (0, 1) shows heavy probability in around 1, while that from the equivalent LSI system shows probability concentration around themean vlaue and symmetricity about it. This difference is due to the fact that dilation is a non-linear process while the equivalent system is linear and shift-ivariant. In the case that dikation is fabored over LSI filters in subjective perforance tests, one of the factors can be traced to this difference in the probability distribution.