• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.115-123
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• 2011

In this paper, we develop the noninformative priors for stress-strength reliability from the Pareto distributions. We develop the matching priors and the reference priors. It turns out that the second order matching prior does not match the alternative coverage probabilities, and is not a highest posterior density matching or a cumelative distribution function matching priors. Also we reveal that the one-at-a-time reference prior and Jeffreys' prior are the second order matching prior. We show that the proposed reference prior matches the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense through simulation study, and an example is given.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제55권3호
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• pp.525-534
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• 2015

A new structural dynamic fuzzy reliability analysis under stochastic loads which are applied several times is proposed in this paper. The fuzzy reliability prediction models based on time responses with and without strength degeneration are established using the stress-strength interference theory. The random loads are applied several times and fuzzy structural strength is analyzed. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated numerically through an example. The results have shown that the proposed method is practicable, feasible and gives a reasonably accurate prediction. The analysis shows that the probabilistic reliability is a special case of fuzzy reliability and fuzzy reliability of structural strength without degeneration is also a special case of fuzzy reliability with structural strength degeneration.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제41권8호
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• pp.625-631
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• 2013

핀풀러의 신뢰도를 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통해서 예측하였다. 예측방법은 응력-강도 간섭 모델에 근거한다. 이 모델은 강도가 응력보다 작을 경우를 고장으로 간주한다. 본 연구에서 강도는 핀을 예정된 거리까지 후퇴시키는데 필요한 에너지로, 응력은 이 핀의 운동을 방해하는데 소요되는 에너지로 간주하였다. 전자는 주로 화약량에 의해 결정되고 후자는 여러 가지 마찰력과 반발방지장치에서 소모되는 에너지에 의존한다. 응력과 강도 변수들은 해석적 성능 모델로부터 계산하였다. 본 연구에서 제시된 방법은 많은 시료가 필요하지 않기 때문에 유사한 종류의 파이로 장치 신뢰도 계산에도 적용될 수 있다.

• 대한금속재료학회지
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.275-280
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• 2011

This paper focuses on reliability prediction of long-term creep strength for Modified 9Cr-1Mo steel (Gr. 91) which is considered as one of the structural materials of next generation reactor systems. A "Z-parameter" method was introduced to describe the magnitude of standard deviation of creep rupture data to the master curve which can be plotted by log stress vs. The larson-Miller parameter (LMP). Statistical analysis showed that the scattering of the Z-parameter for the Gr. 91 steel well followed normal distribution. Using this normal distribution of the Z-parameter, the various reliability curves for creep strength design, such as stress-time temperature parameter reliability curves (${\sigma}$-TTP-R curves), stress-rupture time-reliability curves (${\sigma}-t_{r}-R$ curves), and allowable stress-temperature- reliability curves ([${\sigma}$]-T-R curves) were reasonably drawn, and their results are discussed.

• 한국레이저가공학회지
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2002

Finite element analysis and experiment were peformed to estimate the fatigue strength for the lap joint of laser weld. To consider quantitatively residual stress which effects on the fatigue strength of the lap joint of laser weld, after three dimensional modeling for the longitudinal and transverse direction, residual stress fields in the weldment were calculated using thermo-elastic-plastic finite element analysis, then the equivalent fatigue stress considering the residual stress was obtained. To ensure reliability of calculated fatigue strength, fatigue tests were performed. The calculated and experimental results showed a good agreement. The fatigue strength considering a residual stress was lower than that of without considering a residual stress in the lap joint of laser welding. The fatigue strength in the transverse direction was higher than that of longitudinal direction.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집A
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• pp.262-267
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• 2001

In this study, the Reliability of degraded steam turbine blade was evaluated using the limited fatigue data. The statistical estimation of limited fatigue data implies that some unknown uncertainties which may be involved in fatigue reliability analysis. Therefore, an appropriate distribution in the fatigue strength was determined by the characteristic distribution - linear correlation coefficient, fatigue physics, error parameter. 3-parameter Weibull distribution is the most appropriate distribution to assume for infinite region. The load applied on the blade is mainly tensile. The maximum Von-Mises stress is 219.4 MPa at the steady state service condition. The failure probability($F_p$) derived from the strength-stress interference model using Monte carlo simulation under variable service condition is 0.25% at the 99.99% confidence level.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 1997년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.475-480
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• 1997

It is common to assum identical allowable safety factors in static strength, defined by mean stress and in fatigue, defined by stress amplitude. Under the load with asymmetrical cycles the safety factor is not the same. In this paper, with the consideration of unequal allowable safety factors a general method for estimating fatigue reliability of a machine element under a combined state of stress is derived based on the theory proposed by Prof. Kececioglu and normal distribution. The calculation of fatigue reliability for limited life is discussed with example.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 1998년도 봄 학술발표회논문집(II)
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• pp.447-454
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• 1998

The main object of the study is that axial force-moment relationships for high strength concrete structures using reliability theory(Linear statstical method, Monte Carlo Simulation) including probability conception. And mean stress factors and centroid factors proposed to high strength concrete structures using reliability theory(Linear statstical method, Monte Carlo Simulation). Finally, The established experimental data for axial force-moment relationships are compared to the analytical data(data for Linear statstical method and Monte Carlo Simulation) for axial force-moment relationships in this analytical method.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 1997년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.500-506
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• 1997

The main object of the study is that axial force-moment relationships for high strength concrete structures using reliability theory probability conception. And mean stress factors and centroid factors proposed to high strength concrete structures using reliability theory. Finally, the established experimental data for axial force-moment relationships are compared to the analytical data for the axial force-moment relationships in this analytical method.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 1983

A stress-strength model is formulated for s out of k system of identical components. We consider the estimation of system reliability from survival count data from a Bayesian viewpoint. We assume a quadratic loss and a Dirichlet prior distribution. It is shown that a Bayes sequential procedure can be established. The Bayes estimator is compared with the UMVUE obtained by Bhattacharyya and with an estimator based on Mann-Whitney statistic.