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Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics (빅데이터 기반의 정성 정보를 활용한 부도 예측 모형 구축)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2016
  • Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.

Salvage with Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty after the Failure of Proximal Humeral Tumor Treatment (근위 상완골 종양 치료 실패 후 역 견관절 전치환물을 이용한 구제술)

  • Jeon, Dae-Geun;Cho, Wan Hyeong;Kim, Bum Suk;Park, Hwanseong
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.505-512
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Many reconstruction methods have been attempted after an en-bloc resection of the proximal humerus. In particular, the introduction of reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) has made a breakthrough in the functional recovery of the shoulder. Nevertheless, RSA has limitations when the humeral bone stock loss is significant. In addition, it is unclear if RSA is effective in patients showing failure with non-operative treatment of a proximal humeral tumor. Materials and Methods: A reconstruction was performed using an overlapping allograft-RSA composite for 11 patients with a failed proximal humeral construct. Delayed RSA was performed on 6 patients with failed non-operative treatment. The pre- and postoperative Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) score and the complications were addressed. Results: Overlapping allograft-RSA composite afforded a stable construct in 11 failed proximal humeral reconstructions and the patient's chief complaints were resolved. The mean time to the union of overlapped allograft-host junction was 5.5 months. Average preoperative MSTS score of 20.3 point increased to 25.7 point, postoperatively. Four of the six patients who had RSA within 4 years from the index operation showed arm elevation of more than $90^{\circ}$ whereas the remaining 5 patients showed some disability. The complications include one case each of dislocation and aseptic infection, which were resolved by changing the polyethylene liner and scar revision, respectively. None of the 6 patients who underwent delayed RSA after the failure of non-operative treatment showed arm elevation more than $90^{\circ}$. Conclusion: An overlapping allograft-RSA composite is a simple and reliable reconstructive modality in patients with massive bone loss. In patients with metastatic cancer necessitating a surgical resection at presentation, early conversion to RSA is recommended to secure functional recovery.

Study on the Factors Influencing the Investment Performance of Domestic Venture Capital Funds (국내 벤처펀드의 투자성과에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • InMo Yeo;HyeonJu Park;KwangYong Gim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2023
  • This study conducted empirical analysis on the factors affecting the investment performance of 205 domestic venture funds (with a total liquidation amount of 7.25 trillion KRW) newly formed from 2007 to 2017 and completely liquidated as of the end of 2022. Due to the nature of private equity funds, obtaining empirical data is extremely challenging, especially for data post-COVID-19 era liquidations. Nevertheless, despite these challenges, it is meaningful to analyze the impact on the investment returns of domestic venture funds using the most recent data available from the past 10 years. This study categorized the factors influencing venture fund performance into external environmental factors and internal factors. External environmental factors included "economic cycles," "stock markets," "venture markets," and "exit markets," while internal factors included the fund management company's capabilities in terms of "experience," "professional personnel," and "assets under management (AUM)." The fund structure was also categorized into "fund size" and "fund length" for comparative analysis. In summary, the analysis yielded the following results: First, the 3-year government bond yield, which represents economic cycles well, was found to have a significant impact on fund performance. Second, the average 3-month KOSDAQ index return after fund formation had a statistically significant positive effect on fund performance. Third, the number of IPOs, indicating the competition intensity at the time of venture fund liquidation, was shown to have a negative effect on fund performance. Fourth, it was observed that the larger the AUM of the fund management company, the better the fund's returns. Finally, venture fund returns showed variations depending on the year of formation (Vintage). Therefore, when individuals consider investing in venture funds, it is considered a highly effective investment strategy to construct an investment portfolio taking into account not only external environmental factors and internal fund factors but also the vintage year.

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