• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.925-933
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• 2020

This study is aimed to compare stock assessment models which are effective in assessing red snow crab Chinonoecetes japonicus resources and to select and apply an effective stock assessment model in the future. In order to select an effective stock assessment model, a process-error model, observation-error model, and a Bayesian state-space model were estimated. Analytical results show that the least error is observed between the estimated CPUE (catch per unit effort) and the observed CPUE when using the Bayesian state-space model. For the Bayesian state-space model, the 95% credible interval(CI) ranges for the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), carrying capacity (K), catchability coefficient (q), and intrinsic growth (r) are estimated to be 10,420-47,200 tons, 185,200-444,800 tons, 3.81E-06-9.02E-06, and 0.14-0.66, respectively. The results show that the Bayesian state-space model was most reliable among models.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.59-74
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• 2015

This study aims to estimate optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caught by the offshore Stow Net and the offshore Gill Net fisheries using the current value Hamiltonian method and the surplus production model. As analyzing processes, firstly, this study uses the Gavaris general linear model to estimate standardized fishing efforts of yellow croaker caught by the above multiple fisheries. Secondly, this study applies the Clarke Yoshimoto Pooley(CY&P) model among the various exponential growth models to estimate intrinsic growth rate(r), environmental carrying capacity(K), and catchability coefficient(q) of yellow croaker which inhabits in offshore area of Korea. Thirdly, the study determines optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker using the current value Hamiltonian method which is including average landing price of yellow croaker, average unit cost of fishing efforts, and social discount rate based on standard of the Korean Development Institute. Finally, this study tries sensitivity analysis to understand changes in optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caused by changes in economic and biological parameters. As results drawn by the current value Hamiltonian model, the optimal harvesting production, fishing efforts, and stock levels of yellow croaker caught by the multiple fisheries were estimated as 19,173 ton, 101,644 horse power, and 146,144 ton respectively. In addition, as results of sensitivity analysis, firstly, if the social discount rate and the average landing price of yellow croaker continuously increase, the optimal harvesting production of yellow croaker increases at decreasing rate and then finally slightly decreases due to decreases in stock levels of yellow croaker. Secondly, if the average unit cost of fishing efforts continuously increases, the optimal fishing efforts of the multiple fisheries decreases, but the optimal stock level of yellow croaker increases. The optimal harvest starts climbing and then continuously decreases due to increases in the average unit cost. Thirdly, when the intrinsic growth rate of yellow croaker increases, the optimal harvest, fishing efforts, and stock level all continuously increase. In conclusion, this study suggests that the optimal harvesting production and fishing efforts were much less than actual harvesting production(35,279 ton) and estimated standardized fishing efforts(175,512 horse power) in 2013. This result implies that yellow croaker has been overfished due to excessive fishing efforts. Efficient management and conservative policy on stock of yellow croaker need to be urgently implemented.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.237-247
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• 2018

This study aims to estimate optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels of hairtail harvested by the large pair bottom trawl, the large otter trawl, the large purse seine, the offshore long line, and the offshore angling fisheries by using the surplus production models and the current value Hamiltonian method. Processes of this study are as follows. First of all, this study estimates the standardized fishing efforts regarding the harvesting of the hairtail by the above five fishing gears based on the general linear model developed by Gavaris. Secondly, this study estimates environmental carrying capacity (k), intrinsic growth rate (r), and catchability coefficient (q) by applying the Clarke Yoshimoto Pooley (CY&P) model among various surplus production models. Thirdly, this study estimates the optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels regarding the hairtail by the current value Hamiltonian method, including the average landing price, the average unit cost, and the social discount rate. Finally, this study attempts a sensitivity analysis to figure out changes in optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels due to changes in the average landing price and the average unit cost. As results induced by the current value Hamiltonian method, the optimal harvests, fishing efforts, and stock levels regarding the hairtail caught by several fishing gears were estimated as 33,133 tons, 901,080 horse power, and 79,877 tons, respectively. In addition, from the results of the sensitivity analysis, first of all, if the average landing price of the hairtail constantly increases, the optimal harvests of it increase at a decreasing rate, and then harvests finally slightly decrease as a result of decreases in stock levels. Secondly, if the average unit cost of fishing efforts continuously increases, the optimal fishing efforts decreases, but optimal stock levels increase. Optimal harvests start climbing and then decrease continuously due to increases in the average unit cost. In summary, this study suggests that the optimal harvests (33,133 tons) were larger than actual harvests (25,133 tons), but the optimal fishing efforts (901,080 horse power) were much less than estimated standardized fishing efforts (1,277,284 horse power), corresponding to the average of the recent three years (2014-2016). This result implies that the hairtail has been inefficiently harvested and recently overfished due to excessive fishing efforts. Efficient management and conservation policies on stock levels need to be urgently implemented. Some appropriate strategies would be to include the hairtail in the Korean TAC species or to extend the closed fishing season for this species.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.95-104
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• 2019

This study is aimed to take a stock assessment of blackthroat seaperch Doederleinia seaperch regarding the fishing effort of large-powered Danish Seine Fishery and Southwest Sea Danish Seine Fishery. For the assessment, the state-space model was implemented and the standardized catch per unit effort (CPUE) of large powered Danish Seine Fishery and Southwest Sea Danish Seine Fishery which is necessary for the model was estimated with generalized linear model (GLM). The model was adequate for stock assessment because its r-square value was 0.99 and root mean square error (RMSE) value was 0.003. According to the model with 95% confidence interval, maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of Blackthroat seaperch is from 2,634 to 6,765 ton and carrying capacity (K) is between 33,180 and 62,820. Also, the catchability coefficient (q) is between 2.14E-06 and 3.95E-06 and intrinsic growth rate (r) is between 0.31 and 0.72.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.52-59
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• 2014

This study was conducted to estimate the Hanwoo carrying capacity when whole crop wheat, as a winter forage crop, was grown on mixed-sowing of legume forage and by applying cattle manure on the productivity and feed value of whole crop wheat during the period of 2012~2013. The experiment was conducted in a split plot design with three replications. The main plots consisted of three different culture methods such as whole crop wheat and mixed sowing combination with hairy vetch or forage pea. The subplots consisted of four different applications of cattle manure (0, 50, 100 and 150 kg N/ha). The annual amount of dry matter (DM) of whole crop wheat in Gyeongju were higher than those of in Gyeongsan and Yeongju, and the mixed-sowing of hairy vetch mixture was the highest (p<0.05) compared with the single-sowing of whole crop wheat and mixed-sowing of legume in Gyeongju. The DM amounts were increased proportionately corresponded to the applying level of cattle manure, and was found to be significantly (p<0.05) high at the level of 100 and 150 kg/ha groups. With the feed value of forage, the crude protein (CP) contents tended to be higher in the mixed-sowing of legume than the single-sowing of whole crop wheat at the wintering experimental sites of legume. For whole crop wheat, total digestible nutrients (TDN) content was the highest in the mixed sowing plots of forage pea in Gyeongsan; however, there was no significant differences among the single-sowing of whole crop wheat. The carrying capacity of Hanwoo (head/ha) was higher (p<0.05) in Gyeongju (3.83 head) than that in Gyeongsan (3.11) and Yeongju (1.35). Further, the carrying capacity in the single-sowing of whole crop wheat was lower than that in the mixed-sowing of legume, and the hairy vetch was the highest among the mixed-sowing groups (p<0.05). Overall, the present results recommend taking into account the wintering for the mix-sowing of legume in Gyeongbuk province. The cattle manure may be applied for legume in the wintering unavailable regions. In addition, applying cattle manure at the level of 100~150 kg/ha and the mix-sowing of legume may increase the productivity per unit area and feed value, including the CP, for improving the carrying capacity of Hanwoo.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.183-188
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• 2022

It is a difficult task to estimate parameters in even a simple stock assessment model such as a surplus production model, using only data about temporal catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) (or survey index) and fishery yields. Such difficulty is exacerbated when time-varying parameters are treated as random effects (aka state variables). To overcome the difficulty, previous studies incorporated somewhat subjective assumptions (e.g., B₁=K) or informative priors of parameters. A key is how to build an objective joint prior of parameters, reducing subjectivity. Given the limited data on temporal CPUEs and fishery yields from 1999-2020 for common squid Todarodes pacificus, we built a joint prior of only two parameters, intrinsic growth rate (r) and carrying capacity (K), based on the resilience level of the population (Froese et al., 2017), and used a Bayesian state-space production assessment model. We used template model builder (TMB), a R package for implementing the assessment model, and estimating all parameters in the model. The predicted annual biomass was in the range of 0.76×10⁶ to 4.06×10⁶ MT, the estimated MSY was 0.13×10⁶ MT, the estimated r was 0.24, and the estimated K was 2.10×10⁶ MT.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.54 no.1
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• pp.38-53
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to estimate potential yield (PY) for Korean west coast fisheries using the holistic production method (HPM). HPM involves the use of surplus production models to apply input data of catch and standardized fishing efforts. HPM compared the estimated parameters of the surplus production from four different models: the Fox model, CYP model, ASPIC model, and maximum entropy model. The PY estimates ranged from 174,232 metric tons (mt) using the CYP model to 238,088 mt using the maximum entropy model. The highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$), the lowest root mean square error (RMSE), and the lowest Theil's U statistic (U) for Korean west coast fisheries were obtained from the maximum entropy model. The maximum entropy model showed relatively better fits of data, indicating that the maximum entropy model is statistically more stable and accurate than other models. The estimate from the maximum entropy model is regarded as a more reasonable estimate of PY. The quality of input data should be improved for the future study of PY to obtain more reliable estimates.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.18-28
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• 2013

It was compared the estimated parameters by the surplus production from three different models, i.e., three types (Schaefer, Gulland, and Schnute) of the traditional surplus production models, a stock production model incorporating covariates (ASPIC) model and a maximum entropy (ME) model. We also evaluated the performance of models in the estimation of their parameters. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of small yellow croaker (Pseudosciaena polyactis) in Korean waters ranged from 35,061 metric tons (mt) by Gulland model to 44,844mt by ME model, and fishing effort at MSY ($f_{MSY}$) ranged from 262,188hauls by Schnute model to 355,200hauls by ME model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) for small yellow croaker was obtained from the Gulland surplus production model, while the highest RMSE was from Schnute model. However, the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was from the ME model, but the ASPIC model yielded the lowest coefficient. On the other hand, the MSY of Kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon) ranged from 16,880 mt by ASPIC model to 25,373mt by ME model, and $f_{MSY}$, from 94,580hauls by ASPIC model to 225,490hauls by Schnute model. In this case, both the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$) were obtained from the ME model, which showed relatively better fits of data to the model, indicating that the ME model is statistically more stable and robust than other models. Moreover, the ME model could provide additional ecologically useful parameters such as, biomass at MSY ($B_{MSY}$), carrying capacity of the population (K), catchability coefficient (q) and the intrinsic rate of population growth (r).

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.451-465
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• 2013

This study was conducted to estimate Hanwoo carrying capacity when whole crop barley, rye, wheat and tritcale as winter forage crops was grown on different applying sources (chemical fertilizer, cattle or organic fertilizer) and mixed sowing combination with hairy vetch or forage pea during the period of 2011~2012. The experimental plots within whole crop barley or rye were consisted of 7 treatments, which were non-fertilizer, chemical fertilizer (P+K), chemical fertilizer (N+P+K), organic fertilizer, cattle slurry, cattle slurry with hairy vetch, and cattle slurry with forage pea. Each plot was triplicates and experimental treatments were allocated in the randomized complete block design. For whole crop barley, annual mean dry matter (DM) and total digestible nutrients (TDN) yields were the highest in N+P+K plots, but there were no significant differences among organic fertilizer, cattle slurry and mixed sowing with legumes. The TDN were the highest in mixed sowing plots of forage pea plus cattle slurry application. As 450 kg Hanwoo heifers were fed diets included 70% whole crop barley, organic fertilizer, cattle slurry application and mixed sowing plots of forage pea is capable of raising average 2.8 to 3.1 heads/ha a year. For whole crop rye, annual mean DM were the highest in N+P+K plots, but there were no significant differences among cattle slurry. Organic fertilizer application significantly increased TDN and relative feed value (RFV) in comparison with treatments of N+P+K fertilization as chemical fertilizers. In case of 450 kg Hanwoo heifers fed diets included 70% forage rye, it is estimated that cattle slurry application (mixed sowing with legumes) plots can rear average 2.8~ 3.2 heads/ha a year. For whole crop wheat, annual DM, crude protein, and TDN yields of application groups and mixed sowing treatment with legumes showed 6.90~7.44, 0.53~0.60 and 4.35~5.04 ton/ha, respectively. In case of 450 kg Hanwoo heifers fed diets included 70% forage rye, it is estimated that cattle slurry application (mixed sowing with legumes) plots can rear average 3.1~3.7 heads/ha a year. For Triticale, TDN yield was significantly (P<0.05) higher N+P+K plots, organic ferilizer, cattle slurry, cattle slurry with legumes than for no fertilizer and N+P+K plots. The Crude protein (CP) contents were the highest in mixed sowing plots of forage pea plus cattle slurry application. In case of 450 kg Hanwoo heifers fed diets included 70% forage triticale, it is estimated that cattle slurry application (mixed sowing with legumes) plots can rear average 3.4~3.7 heads/ha a year. It can be concluded that, on the basis of DM yield, not only mixed sowing with legumes by applying cattle slurry rather than single sowing of whole crop barley or whole crop rye enhanced production yield and feed values, but also it could be a substitute for imported grains as dietary protein sources in the case of feeding Hanwoo.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.56 no.4
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• pp.347-360
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• 2020

In this study, the Bayesian state-space model was used for the stock assessment of the Blackfin flounder. In addition, effective measures for the resource management were presentedwith the analysis on the effectiveness of fisheries management plans. According to the result of the analysis using the Bayesian state-space model, the main biometric value of Blackfin flounder was analyzed as 1,985 tons for maximum sustainable yield (MSY), 23,930 tons for carrying capacity (K), 0.000007765 for catchability coefficient (q) and 0.31 for intrinsic growth (r). Also the evaluation on the biological effect of TAC was done. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be kept at 14,637 tons 20 years later given the present TAC volume of 1,761 tons. If the Blackfin flounder TAC volume is set to 1,600 tons, the amount of biomass will increase to 16,252 tons in the future. Lastly, the biological effectiveness of the policy to reduce fishing effort was assessed. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be maintained at 13,776 tons if the current fishing efforts (currently hp) level is set and maintained. If the fishing effort is reduced by 20%, it will increase to 17,091 tons in the future. The analysis on the economic effect of TAC showed that NPV will be the lowest at 1,486,410 won in 2038, 20 years after the establishment of 2,500 tons of TAC volume. If the TAC volume is set at 2,000 tons, NPV was estimated to be the highest at 2,206,522,000 won. In addition, the analysis on the economic effect of the policy to reduce the amount of fishing effort found that NPV will be 2,235,592,000 won in 2038, 20 years after maintaining the current level of fishing effort. If the fishing effort is increased by 10%, NPV will be the highest at 2,257,575 won even thoughthe amount of biomass will be reduced.